ben owen - international experiences in evaluation and selection of mass transit projects
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Ben Owen
Visiting Fellow
International experiences in evaluation and selection of mass
transit projects
www.embarq.org
Photo credits (L to R): Meena Kadri, Jacek.NL, Gerardo Arévalo Tamayo (all via Flickr)
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National programs studied
ReviewedReview pending
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Categories of project supported by program
National mass transit policies
Age of program
Planning requirements
Contextual factors that influence evaluation processes
Urban / national infrastructure
Surface transport
Mass transit
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Justification for project• Socioeconomic analysis (CBA, cost-effectiveness,
assessment of indirect effects)• Policy and strategic factors (examples to come)• Factors may be
• Treated as requirements (i.e., project must achieve a minimum internal rate of return, must display consistency with policy factors)
• Rated (i.e., ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’)
Other viability analyses• Financial, legal, technical, commercial, planning, etc.• Usually treated as requirements
Evaluation frameworks
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Focus on (discounted) direct, monetizable societal impacts of a project over its life
Socioeconomic evaluation: Cost-benefit analysis
Benefit-cost ratio
Internal rate of return
Net present value
Consumer surplus• Travel time• Vehicle operating costs /
fares• Travel quality
Producer surplus• Vehicle operating costs
Externalities• Noise• Air pollution / GHG
emissions• Traffic collisions
Costs to government• Project capital
contributions• (Project operating and
maintenance subsidies)
Costs to infrastructure managers / project operators• Project capital
contributions
(Also negative impacts during construction)
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Further socioeconomic impacts may serve to ‘adjust’ cost-benefit analysis results
Complementary socioeconomic evaluations
• Wider / indirect economic benefits (i.e., agglomeration, improved job matching)
• Environmental impacts (i.e., water quality, habitats, viewsheds, physical activity)
• Equity / distributional effects
Photo credit: Ariel Cruz Pizarro (via Flickr)
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Consistency with national government policies and priorities• Investments• Reforms
Strategic and policy evaluation factors
Urban development and transport priorities• Land use• Transport plans and
other investments
Photo credit: Ferdi (via Flickr)
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Objectives: reverse decreases in transit mode share through better service quality, balance supply and demand
Policy consistency: Colombia
Cities must commit to coordinating / rationalizing privately operated transport services as part of funding agreements Photo credit: miguelmatus (via Flickr)
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Objectives: support economic growth and productivity improvements
Policy consistency: New Zealand
Projects rated on how effectively they meet associated objectives (reduce congestion, improve travel time reliability)
Photo credit: Nankai (via Wikipedia)
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Projects evaluated based on• Existing land use in
corridor (population density, employment, parking supply, etc.)
• Potential to shape corridor and regional economic development, based on policies and plans
Land use: United States
Photo: Jeff Wood (via Flickr)
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In most cases, technical staff at national agency or technical committee conducts evaluation• May be at multiple points during project development
… but funding decision-makers are non-technical (i.e., political figures)
Evaluation process should yield information that supports informed decisions• Costs and benefits, socioeconomic and otherwise• May be scaled to project cost/complexity• Rationale for a viability determination or rating (or
rejection)
Evaluations and decision-making
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Ben Owen
+1 202 729-7600
Thank you!
www.embarq.org
Photo credits (L to R): Aaron Hockley, Omar Bárcena, Rupert Brun (all via Flickr)