BC  Agriculture  Climate  Change  Risk  &  Opportunity  Assessment    

Project  Background   Towards  a  More  Resilient  Agriculture  Sector  

Key  Ac;ons  

Suppor;ng  Adapta;on  in  BC  Agriculture  

What  is  the  current  capacity  of  the  industry  and  producers  to  adapt  to  change  and  variability?  

What  do  2020  climate  scenarios  mean  for  agricultural  opera;ons  in  BC  regions?  

Some  examples…                      

Goals  

•  To  build  understanding  about  the  implica;ons  of  climate  change  for  BC  agriculture  and  associated  risks  and  opportuni;es      

•  To  evaluate  the  current  ability  of  producers  to  manage  change  and  challenging  condi;ons  

•  To  iden;fy  thresholds  in  the  ability  of  farmers  and  the  agriculture  industry  in  BC  to  adapt  to  projected  changes,  given  current  capacity  and  available  resources  

•  To  iden;fy  gaps,  barriers  and  opportuni;es  for  planning  and  adap;ng  to  climate  change  at  a  farm,  regional,  and  industry-­‐level  

The  results  of  this  project  are  being  applied  to  two  new  Climate  Ac;on  Ini;a;ve  projects  in  2012–2013.  The  On-­‐Farm  Adapta-on  Prac-ces  project  will  explore  appropriate  farm  level  adapta;on  prac;ces  for  BC  agriculture.  The  Regional  Agricultural  Adapta-on  Strategies  project  will  pilot  a  collabora;ve  adapta;on  planning  process  involving  local  governments  and  agriculture  industry  organiza;ons  as  partners.    The  full  Risk  &  Opportunity  Assessment  report  series,  along  with  more  informa;on  on  this  and  other  projects  of  the  Climate  Ac;on  Ini;a;ve,  can  be  found  online  at  www.BCAgClimateAc;on.ca    For  more  informa;on  please  contact:  Erica  Crawford  Research  Associate  &  Adapta;on  Specialist  Erica@BCAgClimateAc;on.ca  (778)  928-­‐1462    

Managing  through  uncertainty  &  challenging  weather  is  a  common  element  of  farming  life  and  producers  have  developed  many  ways  of  adap;ng.  However,  the  scope  and  scale  of  climate  change  is  an;cipated  to  exceed  anything  previously  experienced.  Pa`erns  of  “normal”  weather  will  shic  and  the  frequency  of  unpredictable  and  extreme  weather  events  will  increase.  This  will  test  the  capacity  of  individual  agricultural  producers  to  respond  through  current  approaches,  prac;ces  and  technologies.    This  project  was  ini;ated  by  the  BC  Agriculture  Council’s  Climate  Ac;on  Ini;a;ve  (CAI)  to  begin  addressing  the  priori;es  iden;fied  in  the  BC  Agriculture  Climate  Change  Ac-on  Plan.  Technical  support  and  exper;se  for  this  project  was  provided  by  a  project  advisory  commi`ee  with  representa;on  from  the  agriculture  industry,  provincial  and  federal  government  agencies  and  academic  researchers.  Funding  was  provided  by  the  Pacific  Ins;tute  for  Climate  Solu;ons,  Agriculture  and  Agri-­‐Food  Canada,  BC  Ministry  of  Agriculture  and  BC  Ministry  of  Environment.    The  assessment  gathered  perspec;ves  from  agricultural  producers  about  their  ability  to  adapt  to  current  and  projected  challenges  and  opportuni;es,  and  to  iden;fy  approaches,  tools  and  resources  required  to  be`er  support  adapta;on.  In  addi;on  to  extensive  background  research,  original  data  was  collected  through  interviews  and  focus  groups  with  producers  and  specialists  across  the  province.    

Enhancing  the  resilience  of  BC  agriculture  to  climate  change  will  involve  a  range  of  actors,  including  agricultural  producers  and  industry  organiza;ons,  all  levels  of  government,  ci;zens  and  research  ins;tu;ons.  The  extensive  list  of  ac;ons  included  in  the  reports  includes:    1.  Ac;ons  that  support/bolster  adap;ve  capacity  generally  •  Viable  and  sustainable  farm  businesses  (long-­‐term  viability)  •  Increasing  capacity  of  producer  organiza;ons  for  strategic  decision-­‐

making  &  par;cipa;on  •  New  entrants    

2.  Ac;ons  to  increase  and  improve  knowledge  and  informa;onal  resources        •  Research  priori;es  (weather  and  climate  science,  climate  impacts,  

farm  prac;ces,  pests  and  diseases)  •  Building  knowledge  across  all  actors  in  the  system  

3.  Ac;ons  to  support  integra;on  of  agricultural  adapta;on  into  planning,  decision  making  and  implementa;on  at  all  levels  (farm,  sector,  governments)  •  Increasing  understanding  of  implica;ons  of  decisions  •  Developing  decision-­‐making  tools  (modeling,  processes,  programs,  

policies,  approaches)    

•  What  is  ocen  assumed  to  be  an  opportunity  for  agriculture  in  a  northern  climate,  is  in  fact  a  great  deal  more  complex  

•  Most  opportuni;es  have  associated  costs  and  risk  (ini;al  investment,  trying  something  new)  -­‐  climate  change  doesn’t  come  with  a  guarantee  

•  Producers  don’t  always  see  an  “opportunity”  in  transi;oning  to  new  produc;on  systems  (first  may  be  coming  to  terms  with  risk)    

•  Those  who  do  innovate  generally  bear  the  risk  and  cost,  while  followers  benefit  

•  May  be  an  opportunity  associated  with  increased  apprecia;on  of  importance  of  food  produc;on,  local  food,  food  security  

•  Producers  consistently  described  the  following  changes  as  the  most  difficult  to  manage:  

•  Increased  Variability  •  Changes  to  average  condi-ons  and  to  extremes  •  Increased  Complexity    •  Cumula-ve  impacts  

•  Producers  emphasize  the  dis;nc;on  between  risk  or  opportunity  associated  with  varia;ons  on  familiar  condi;ons  vs  fundamentally  new  challenges  (eg:  ho`er  temperatures  vs  introduc;on  of  new  pests  or  diseases)  

•  More  likely  to  feel  driven  to  change  due  to  increasing  risks,  than  pulled  by  poten;al  opportunity  

 

BC Agriculture Climate Change Adaptation Risk + Opportunity Assessment Series ! Provincial Report M"#$% &'(& )*

!"#$% &.' ()**"+, -. /%, 011)%1, 2-34050-31 6 7-5%350"$ 0*7"251 .-+ 89 ":+02)$5)+%, #"1%4 -3 %;7%+5 <)4:*%35 -. +%:0-3"$ 2$0*"5% 12%3"+0-1 .-+ 5=% >?>?1

Issue Changing conditions Potential agricultural impactsIncreasing amounts and variability of precipitation

! Increased fall, winter, spring precipitation

! Increased overall precipitation

! Increased variability and magnitude of precipitation events

! Accumulation of moisture exceeding drainage capacity

! Water-logged soils, localized !ooding

! Lower crop productivity and quality — crop damage & losses

! Increased dif"culty planning for and managing planting and harvesting

! Changes to livestock grazing management

! Nutrient leaching, input losses

! Increased potential for regional water storage

Widespread !ooding ! Increased storminess and precipitation-driven !oodwaters

! Rising sea level

! Dike overtopping and/or dike breach

! Widespread inundation of farmland

! Crop and infrastructure damage and loss

! Relocation or loss of livestock

! Interruptions to supply lines

! Prolonged recovery time

! Salinated soils (in case of sea dike overtopping or breach)

More frequent extreme weather events

! Increased frequency of extreme heat events

! Increased storminess

! Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events

! Reduced quality and productivity (both crops & livestock)

! Damage to plants, crops, livestock and infrastructure

! Interruption of critical supply lines (feed, inputs etc)

! Damage to regional infrastructure

! Increased risk of !ash !oods, soil erosion, landslides

! Increased awareness of importance of local food supplies (within communities)

Seasonally dry conditions (and water supply effects)

! Reduced proportion of precipitation falling as snow

! Earlier peak !ows

! Reduced runoff and soil moisture in summer

! Decreased summer precipitation

! Higher evapotranspiration rates and crop water demand

! Increased frequency of drought

! Water de"cits

! Increased productivity/quality if irrigation is possible (depending on crop and within speci"c temperature range)

! Less costly and easier to harvest (in drier conditions)

! Reduced productivity/quality if moisture is inadequate

! Water restrictions leading to reduction in management options for extreme heat, sun scalding, frost and pests

! Reduced water quality and quantity for livestock watering

! Better hay production and longer grazing season

! Migration of salt wedge further upstream on the Fraser, cutting off irrigation earlier

! Increased overall demand for water use

! Reduced soil moisture, worsened in case of successive hot and dry years

! Substantial crop/"nancial losses with consecutive years of drought

BC Agriculture Climate Change Adaptation Risk + Opportunity Assessment Series ! Provincial Report M"#$% &'(& )*

!"#$% &.' ()**"+, -. /%, 011)%1, 2-34050-31 6 7-5%350"$ 0*7"251 .-+ 89 ":+02)$5)+%, #"1%4 -3 %;7%+5 <)4:*%35 -. +%:0-3"$ 2$0*"5% 12%3"+0-1 .-+ 5=% >?>?1

Issue Changing conditions Potential agricultural impactsIncreasing amounts and variability of precipitation

! Increased fall, winter, spring precipitation

! Increased overall precipitation

! Increased variability and magnitude of precipitation events

! Accumulation of moisture exceeding drainage capacity

! Water-logged soils, localized !ooding

! Lower crop productivity and quality — crop damage & losses

! Increased dif"culty planning for and managing planting and harvesting

! Changes to livestock grazing management

! Nutrient leaching, input losses

! Increased potential for regional water storage

Widespread !ooding ! Increased storminess and precipitation-driven !oodwaters

! Rising sea level

! Dike overtopping and/or dike breach

! Widespread inundation of farmland

! Crop and infrastructure damage and loss

! Relocation or loss of livestock

! Interruptions to supply lines

! Prolonged recovery time

! Salinated soils (in case of sea dike overtopping or breach)

More frequent extreme weather events

! Increased frequency of extreme heat events

! Increased storminess

! Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events

! Reduced quality and productivity (both crops & livestock)

! Damage to plants, crops, livestock and infrastructure

! Interruption of critical supply lines (feed, inputs etc)

! Damage to regional infrastructure

! Increased risk of !ash !oods, soil erosion, landslides

! Increased awareness of importance of local food supplies (within communities)

Seasonally dry conditions (and water supply effects)

! Reduced proportion of precipitation falling as snow

! Earlier peak !ows

! Reduced runoff and soil moisture in summer

! Decreased summer precipitation

! Higher evapotranspiration rates and crop water demand

! Increased frequency of drought

! Water de"cits

! Increased productivity/quality if irrigation is possible (depending on crop and within speci"c temperature range)

! Less costly and easier to harvest (in drier conditions)

! Reduced productivity/quality if moisture is inadequate

! Water restrictions leading to reduction in management options for extreme heat, sun scalding, frost and pests

! Reduced water quality and quantity for livestock watering

! Better hay production and longer grazing season

! Migration of salt wedge further upstream on the Fraser, cutting off irrigation earlier

! Increased overall demand for water use

! Reduced soil moisture, worsened in case of successive hot and dry years

! Substantial crop/"nancial losses with consecutive years of drought

Farm  businesses  struggling  with  marginal  economic  

circumstances  are  not  likely  to  invest  in  new  approaches,  equipment  or  technologies  

Management  of  local  and  regional  physical  resources  (including  land,  water  and  infrastructure)  impacts  

substan;ally  on  agricultural  adap;ve  capacity  

Within  agricultural  organiza;ons,  limited  financial  and  human  

resources  can  lead  to  an  “emergency  response”  orienta;on  where  

longer  term  planning/investments  are  

necessarily  set  aside  

An  aging  producer  popula;on  limits  planning  horizons  and  strategies    for  long-­‐term  resilience  

The  agriculture  sector  is  already  stretched  in  ways  

that  undermine  its  resilience.    

Adap;ve  capacity  varies  across  regions,    and  within  and  across  farm  types  

 (see  reports  for  complete  list)