bay area apartment association & triad research & consulting, inc. 20 th annual tampa bay...
TRANSCRIPT
Bay Area Apartment Association &TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.
20th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
“Let It Be, Let It Be..”Positive Performance Trends Occurring
While New Construction Continues Vigorously
Tampa Westshore Marriott HotelNovember 20th , 2014
Sponsored by:
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
BAAA TAMPA BAY DEVELOPERS FORUM
HISTORICAL PROGRAM TITLES 2005 - 2014 2010
"READY….SET….GO !!! THE MULTIFAMILY MARKET IS COMING BACK"
2011"THE MULTIFAMILY MARKET - TODAY AND
IN THE FUTURE"
2012"NEW CONSTRUCTION RETURNS"
2013"LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL - BUY IT,
BUILD IT, OR REHAB IT"
2014"LET IT BE………LET IT BE"
"POSITIVE PERFORMANCE TRENDS IN OCCUPANCY & RENT GROWTH WHILE NEW CONSTRUCTION CONTINUES VIGOROUSLY"
2004"WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES"
2005"WILL IT BE THE AGE of AQUAIUS or THE
TWIGHLIGHT ZONE"
2006"CHANGES IN LATITUDE & CHANGES IN ATTITUDE - HOW TO MOVE FORWARD"
2007"BACK TO THE FUTURE…
"AVAILABILITY ... AFFORDABILITY ... CHALLENGES IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER“
2008"NEW CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING
WORLD“
2009"GETTING BACK IN THE GAME"
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
OCCUPANCY TRENDS
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
HILL PIN SAR POLK MAN PAS$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
2014-2015 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT
UC/Leasing Planned/Proposed
2013 2014 2014 – 2015 2015 – 2016
MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units
Hillsborough 13 2,829 18 4,760 6 1,691 1 350
Pinellas 12 2,172 12 3,289 9 2,252 0 0
Pasco 4 856 5 906 2 550 2 559
Polk 0 0 0 0 2 547 2 465
Manatee 2 567 4 1,198 2 482 0 0
Sarasota 1 326 0 0 3 676 2 397
Bay Area 32 6,750 39 10,153 24 6,198 7 1,771
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
MULTIFAMILY TRENDSTAMPA BAY AREA
HIL SUBURBAN LAND OPPS BEGINNING TO SHRINK/DECLINE - BRANDON, WESTCHASE, WESTSHORE & DOWNTOWN ACTIVE NEW CONS WESTSHORE – COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE
PIN SOME CONS IN GATEWAY, CARRILON & URBAN ST PETE – MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE - URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN MOST ACTIVE
PAS ONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s TRINITY & SO CO & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY HAPPENING NOW-AS LAND DIMINISHES IN H & P MOVE NORTH
POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME
MAN LAND AVAIL & DEMAND SUPPORTS MODERATE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD H EXPANSION & PIN BUILDOUT – CONS ACTIVITY IN LWR & I-75 – AFFORD IN CITY LOCATIONS - MARKET RECOVERY STRONG
SAR NEW CONST FINALLY RETURN DWNTWN & I-75 CORRIDOR – MARKET RECOVERY COMPLETE – OCC & RENT GROWTH STRONG
GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST RETURN STRONG – DEMAND STILL OUTPACING SUPPLY - OCC RECOVERY TO 95%-97% & ANNUAL RENTAL REVENU GROWTH 4%-6% NOW – GOOD OPP FOR 24-48 MONTHS – MOSTLY URBAN & SOME SUBURBAN.
Triad Research & Consulting, Inc.
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE METHODOLOGIES
OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND
SUPPLY SUPPLY NOT KEEPING PACE WITH DEMAND – NEW CONSTRUCTION VIGOROUS – SOME SUBURBAN (BRANDON) UP - SHIFT FROM OWNERSHIP TO RENTAL HOUSING FOR LIFESTYLE & AFFORDABILITY & CONSUMER CHOICE – BAY AREA NEEDING 5K TO 6K PER YEAR
INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS – RENTING MORE AFFORD THAN OWNERSHIP – OWNERSHIP ADVANTAGES NOT YET RETURNED
CONSUMER ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – URBAN & URBAN/SUBURBAN BEHAVIORS DESIRED CHOICE INCOME DRIVEN CHOICES–BETTER LOCATIONS
FOR RENTASL – LESS COMMUTING
THEORY DEMAND METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, & JOB GROWTH NOW OUT,. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE & SHIFTING CONSUMER CHOICES.