BarCap on Distressed Debt Markets

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CREDIT RESEARCH

1 October 2010

EUROPEAN CREDIT ALPHA More answers than questionsMatthew Leeming +44 (0) 20 7773 9320 matthew.leeming@barcap.com Zoso Davies +44 (0) 20 7773 5815 zoso.davies@barcap.com Arup Ghosh +44 (0) 20 7773 6275 arup.ghosh@barcap.com

This version corrects Figure 3, where the scale was incorrect on the left hand axis.Eugene Regis

Strategic Market View: There and back again

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+44 (0) 20 7773 9169 eugene.regis@barcap.com Aziz Sunderji +44 (0) 20 7773 7881 aziz.sunderji@barcap.com Dominik Winnicki +44 (0) 20 3134 9716 dominik.winnicki@barcap.com www.barcap.com

Driven by mixed signals from the economic and political front credit spreads seesawed this week before finally ending up where they started. Risk aversion remains, but largely driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, while strong corporate fundamentals should provide spreads with a buffer if future growth stays anaemic. Sovereign volatility continues to drive valuation dislocations and we highlight a credit-equity normalisation trade on EDP. For investors worried about poor economic growth, we also recommend going long a basket of selected names with counter-cyclical performance while simultaneously shorting the index as a suitable trade for generating counter-cyclical alpha.

Distressed debt markets time to grow

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We see the European distressed debt market as growing in size. This will come from weak borrowers who survived on forbearance measures and the low rate of Euribor hitting maturity and amortisation points and European banks continuing with balance sheet shrinkage. Also, with the cost of bailing out Europes banking systems via bad banks increasingly interlinked to sovereign funding rates, there is further potential for distressed assets to come from both bad banks and distressed banks.

Credit at a glance

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Corporates generated just over 50bp of excess returns in September, led by financials and in particular the Tier 1 part of the capital structure. Insurance, which is more heavily weighted towards Tier 1 than banking, was the top performing sector this month utilities underperformed. Indices were marginally tighter week on week, while investment grade cash was wider. Despite this, our measure of the cash-CDS basis was broadly unchanged as single-name contracts lagged the index tightening.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING AFTER PAGE 22

Barclays Capital | European Credit Alpha

CREDIT VIEWS ON A PAGECREDIT STRATEGY CATEGORYHigh Grade

THESISMonetise steep skew, hedge against moderate widening Use bank Tier 1s to boost yield or beta Relative value in step-up bonds Relative value trades between corporates and sovereigns Cyclical hedge in CDS Normalisation trades

TRADE IDEAS1x2 payer spreads on Main to December Despite the rally that has reduced the pick-up to senior, we continue to believe there is value in European bank Tier 1 as a high-beta asset class Switch into Lafarge step-ups: LGFP 7.625% 2014 and LGFP 7.625% 2016s Short corporates trading tighter than their own sovereign (only in AAA sovereigns)

High Yield

Relative value across ratings buckets Relative value in senior vs subordinated cash

Basket of cyclical shorts vs index: LMETEL (Ericsson), MICH, PUBFP, STM, VLOF, WKLNA, WPP Basket of cyclical longs vs index: BNFP (Danone), ROSW, EXHO, TSCOLN, ULVRLN Yield/credit curves steep at front end, buy short-dated credit Basis trades > -100bp We favour single-B-rated paper and expect it to compress towards BB On capital structures of performing names with secured and unsecured bonds, unsecured tiers look attractive: Buy Ardagh 17, Ineos 16, Europcar 14 and Lecta 14 against secured issues On capital structures of performing names with term loans and pari passu secured bonds, buy the secured bond: Buy Smurfit 17/19 against term loans Loans or short-duration bonds trading sub-par, which we expect to be refinanced Short-duration paper on high-beta credits with strong liquidity Selected name-specific 5s10s DV01 neutral steepeners for borrowers we expect to refinance We favour bonds with cash yield above the current yield of the index Switch into bonds that are closer to maturity to reduce sensitivity to spread widening and curve steepening Switch into bonds with protective covenants, such as change-of-control (CoC) puts and/or step-up coupons Buy outright CDS protection on an LBO target; Buy outright CDS protection on a target and sell protection on a correlated index Implement a CDS steepener on a potential candidate Long equity call options for LBO candidates

Trades on issuers we expect to refinance Returns are hard to find Event-driven trades: LBOs Cash

CDS

Equity options

HIGH GRADE CREDIT RESEARCH SECTORS COMPANIESAutos Banks Consumer & Retail General Industrial Insurance Pharmaceuticals TMT

OVERWEIGHTBanks, Consumer, Industrials

UNDERWEIGHTTelecoms, Media, Technology, Utilities, Pharmaceuticals

FAVOURED*:OVERWEIGHT BONDS/SELL PROTECTION CDS

UNFAVOURED*:UNDERWEIGHT BONDS/BUY PROTECTION CDS

BMW (CDS), Daimler (CDS) RBS (cash), Commerzbank (cash), UniCredit (cash) Accor (cash), Kingfisher (cash), Rentokil (cash), Metro, BAT, Imperial Tobacco, Tesco (CDS), PPR (CDS) BAA (cash), Finmeccanica, Alstom (CDS), CRH, Clariant (cash), Thyssenkrupp (CDS) Stalif (cash), Llydin (T1), Eureko (bonds), Munich Re (bonds), Zurich (bonds) Roche, Novartis (cash) BT Group, OTE, Telefonica, Lagardre, Swisscom (CDS), Telenor (CDS), Nokia (CDS) EDP, Enel, Gas Natural, Veolia Environnement, REN, Glencore, Iberdrola (CDS)

BMW (cash), VW (cash), Volvo (cash), Michelin (cash) Allied Irish Banks (cash), BCP (cash), BES (cash), Dexia (cash), Monte dei Paschi (cash) Carrefour, Next (CDS), Diageo, Experian (CDS), Carlsberg (CDS) Metso, Akzo Nobel, Bayer, Clariant (CDS), Rolls Royce (CDS), Lafarge, Sanofi-Aventis, Holcim (cash) Aegon (CDS), Hannover Re (CDS), Generali (CDS), Unipol (CDS) AstraZeneca Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, TeliaSonera, TKA, KPN, STM (CDS), FT, Ericsson, Pearson** (CDS), Portugal Telecom (CDS), Wolters Kluwer (CDS), Ericsson (CDS), WPP (CDS) United Utilities Plc, Suez Environnement, Elia, Verbund, Edison, Fortum (CDS), EnBW (CDS), Vattenfall (CDS)

Utilities

HIGH YIELD CREDIT RESEARCH COMPANIESBasic Industries General Industrial

FAVOURED*:OVERWEIGHT BONDS/SELL PROTECTION CDS

UNFAVOURED*:UNDERWEIGHT BONDS/BUY PROTECTION CDS

Consumer & Retail TMT

Ardagh Glass 2016/2017/2020, Lecta 2014 (sub + snr), M-Real 2013, Smurfit Kappa Group 2015/2017/2019 Evonik Degussa 13s, Evonik Industries 14s, Savcio, HeidelbergCement 2012/2014/2017/2018/2019, Valeo (cash), GKN (CDS) Pernod (EUR) Wind 11.0% 2015, KDG +700 PIK 2014, Seat 8.0% 2014, Unity 8.125% 2017, UPC 8.0% 2016

Clondalkin Industries 2013/2014, Norske Skog 17s Lufthansa (cash), Air France (cash), Stora Enso, UPM

Ono 8.0% 2014, 10.5% 2014, Unity 9.625% 2019, Virgin Media 7.0% 2014

Note: Recent changes where available are in bold text; *ratings below apply to bonds and CDS (where applicable) unless specified; **Barclays Capital is acting as financial advisor to Pearson PLC in its potential acquisition of Sistema Educacional Brasileiro's school learning systems business. Source: Barclays Capital

1 October 2010

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Barclays Capital | European Credit Alpha

REPORTING CALENDARNext WeekDate Mon, 4 Oct Company Release/event Economic data US: Pending home sales, Factory orders EZ: Sentix, PPI UK: Construction PMI US: ISM non-Manufacturing EZ: Retail sales, PMI UK: Services PMI US: ADP employment report EZ: Q2 GDP (Final) GE: Factory orders US: Consumer credit, Jobless claims EZ: ECB Rates decision GE: IP UK: NIESR GDP Estimate, BoE rates decision, IP US: Non-farm payrolls, Unemployment, Wholesale inventories GE: Trade balance UK: PPI

Tue, 5 Oct

Tesco Tui Travel Sainsbury

H1 interim results Interim sales Q2 sales

Wed, 6 Oct

Thu, 7 Oct

M&S

Q2 sales

Fri, 8 Oct

Source: Bloomberg, company reports, Barclays Capital

The week afterDate Mon, 11 Oct Company Securitas Sodexo Ladbrokes Release/event 9M results FY results Interim trading update US: FOMC Minutes, Small business optimism GE: CPI UK: Trade balance, RPI, CPI US: MBA Mortgage applications, Budget EZ: IP UK: Unemployment report US: PPI, Jobless claims, Trade balance, EZ: ECB Monthly report Economic data

Tue, 12 Oct

Wed, 13 Oct

Casino

Q3 sales (after mkt)

Thu, 14 Oct

Carrefour Diageo Roche SABMiller Suedzucker Syngenta

Q3 sales Interim statement Q3 sales Q2 sales Q2 results Q3 sales

Fri, 15 Oct

US: CPI, Advanced retail sales, Retail sales, Empire manufacturing, U. of Mich. Confidence, Business inventories EZ: CPI, Trade balance, Car registrations

Source: Bloomberg, company reports, Barclays Capital

1 October 2010

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Barclays Capital | European Credit Alpha

STRATEGIC MARKET OVERVIEW

There and back againArup Ghosh +44 (0) 20 7773 6275 arup.ghosh@barcap.com Matthew Leeming +44 (0) 20 7773 9320 matthew.leeming@barcap.com Aziz Sunderji +44 (0) 20 7773 7881 aziz.sunderji@barcap.com Dominik Winnicki +44 (0) 20 3134 9716 dominik.winnicki@barcap.com Zoso Davies +44 (0) 20 7773 5815 zoso.davies@barcap.com

Driven by mixed signals from the economic and political front credit spreads see-sawed this week before finally ending up where they started. While risk aversion remains strong we believe it is driven more by macroeconomic uncertainties, as corporate fundamentals are the strongest they have been for a long time. This is not reflected in current valuations, a fact that should provide spreads with a buffer if future growth remains anaemic. Sovereign volatility continues to drive dislocations for corporate names, and we highlight an attractive credit-equity normalisation trade on EDP, where the CDS has been widening in tandem with its sovereign even though the stock has barely moved. We also revisit our trade idea from last week to generate counter-cyclical alpha. We recommend going long a basket of selected names with counter-cyclical performance while simultaneously shorting the index as a suitable trade idea for investors worried about poor economic growth.

Week in reviewCredit continued to trade rangebound this week. Having widened by 7bp on Tuesday, the iTraxx main index ended the week back where it started it at 110bp. A mixture of news, both good and bad from either side of the Atlantic has led to a lack of conviction and light trading volumes. The upshot has been cash outperformance relative to CDS, with the basis turning more positive for investment grade names. There has been a sharp divergence in credit views across Europe in the past few days. The general macroeconomic picture seems to be improving; the 3m LTRO on Wednesday and the subsequent fine tuning operation saw much lower demand than the market had expected signalling an improved liquidity position for European banks. Stronger peripheral sovereigns like Spain and Italy also saw good demand for their bonds in auctions. At the same time concerns remain around the banking sector in Ireland and fiscal conditions in Portugal, which have led to their sovereign CDS spreads widening over the past month as other peripheral spreads tightened (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Peripheral European sovereigns have seen diverging performances over the last month150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 Portugal Ireland SovX Spain Italy Greece While the aggregate sovereign index has stayed virtually unchanged, European peripherals have seen a sharp divergence in performance

Figure 2: while the sharpest changes recently have been in the Irish sovereign CDS curve560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 0 2 4 30-Sep-10Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital

The Irish finance minstry's plan for further capital injection in Anglo Irish bank was greeted by the market with guarded optimisim

6 23-Sep-10

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Net 1 month spread change (bps)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital

1 October 2010

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Barclays Capital | European Credit Alpha

On Thursday the Irish Central Bank unveiled a fresh recapitalisation plan for the banking system, with additional costs expected of around 10bn in a base-case scenario and 15bn in a stress scenario. Of this 4.3bn is for Anglo Irish bank, bringing net capital requirements for the bank to 29.3bn from previous estimates of 25bn. These costs are expected to bring Irelands fiscal deficit to 32% of GDP, much higher than the 3% guideline for Eurozone countries. The Irish finance minster conceded in an interview that the large size of Anglo Irish as a proportion of the countrys balance sheet means it is systemically important and its failure cannot be contemplated. The plan reaffirms the governments intention to make senior bondholders whole on their investment, but seeks to impose writedowns on subordinated bond holders as had been expected. The market reaction to the announcement has been moderately positive, and Irish sovereign CDS curves have started steepening in the front end. This seems to suggest that with this fresh capital injection Ireland might be able to finally draw a line under the banking crisis that has been threatening to plunge the country into a double-dip recession. Adding to the mixed economic signals in Europe is the continuing slow burn of political uncertainty across both core and peripheral countries. Wednesday saw trade unions coordinate protests across a dozen European countries. These included a day-long general strike in Spain protesting against labour reforms and austerity measures undertaken by the current government, as well as a demonstration in Brussels. Also on Wednesday the European Commission proposed plans to impose fines on fiscally undisciplined member states, though consensus on such regulations might be hard to achieve. France announced its 2011 budget stating it intends to cut its public deficit by 1.7% of GDP, while Italy announced it should be on track with its three-year deficit reduction programme. Last weeks volatility and heightened uncertainty led to a couple of casualties on the corporate issuance front. Telefonica and RCI Banque pulled proposed deals after citing difficulties in pricing and reduced interest given the challenging market conditions. Overall primary markets priced c.EUR7bn of debt this week, bringing the total EUR-denominated issuance to c.EUR45bn in September, significantly behind the USD92bn of dollardenominated unsecured debt priced in September. The GBP6.25bn of investment grade debt priced in September makes it the busiest month of 2010 for sterling markets.

Whither corporate spreads?Corporate spreads in Europe are currently being driven to some extent by the markets risk aversion due to prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. While we expect this to continue over the short to medium term, over a longer horizon we expect spreads to start reflecting the underlying fundamentals of these corp...