Japan’s Distressed Debt Market

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Japans Distressed Debt Market. Manmohan Singh and Kazunari Ohashi International Monetary Fund. I. Why do the market bids for NPLs/SPLs matter?. Corporate restructuring requires recycling and replacement of impaired capital. Bank capitalization is weak (note the high level of DTAs). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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<ul><li><p>Japans Distressed Debt Market</p><p>Manmohan Singh and Kazunari Ohashi</p><p>International Monetary Fund</p></li><li><p>I. Why do the market bids for NPLs/SPLs matter?Corporate restructuring requires recycling and replacement of impaired capital.Bank capitalization is weak (note the high level of DTAs).Banks do not possess the skills to turn-around distressed corporates.</p><p>Thus, market clearing price is needed to attract risk capital and accelerate corporate restructuring. Debt-equity swap + new capital.</p><p>However, price mismatches stall efforts to create a liquid distressed debt market. </p></li><li><p>How the market has graduated to SPLsJapans distressed debt market started as a market for collateral sales.Since 1995, strict collateral valuation, along with falling land prices, forced banks to sell collaterals.</p><p>Banks at first sold high-quality collaterals at fire-sale prices.Foreign distressed debt players earned 30-50% annual returns.Due to the complex legal systems, reference prices were not available and collaterals were priced on a bilateral basis.</p><p>Margins on collateral sales have recently become tight.Japanese investors entered the market with lower required returns.Banks learned to use competitive auctions.Quality of collaterals has become worseasset deflation also reduced collateral values.</p><p>Foreign players started to move into the SPL maket for higher returns.</p></li><li><p>Where do SPLs come from?SPLs are special mention and near-bankruptcy loans.Failed life insurers sell SPLs Non-main banks sell minor stakes of SPLsMain bank sell SPLs when debtors file for judicial protectionBank sell near-bankrupt loans that have potential to turn into SPLs </p><p>Most SPLs traded in the market are near-bankrupt loans. </p></li><li><p>II. Why does a price mismatch exist?Banks and investors use different valuation methods and assumptions.</p><p>Banks assume future gains from debt/collateral. maturity default is not recognizedImpasse between main and nonmain banks on debt restructuring</p><p>Distressed investors account for future gains in equity.</p></li><li><p>Maturity Default rule is not recognizedAllowing rollover(s) of impaired loans de facto turns them into perpetual debt.</p><p>Banks view their loans as a call option on Japans economic recovery. In default, they are legally collateralized/senior debt (and senior of equity).Rigid reserving rules and weak capital make banks downside sensitive. </p></li><li><p>The impasse between the main bank and the nonmain bank Stalling debt reduction.....</p><p>Nonmain banks expect main banks to bail out SPL debtors (main yose i.e the put option).Government may bail out main banks, anyway.</p><p>Main banks refuse unilateral debt reduction because they lose upside potential. Main banks upside is larger because they hold more collateral than nonmain banks. </p></li><li><p>Main bank systemBanks optimized monitoring costs by designating a main bank.MOFs restrictive branching policy encouraged banks to expand credit exposures outside their territories via the main bank system. Main banks monitored the solvency of borrowers, not their profitability.Main banks bailed out nonmain banks when borrowers experienced financial problemsin turn, main banks took first-rank collaterals, which fully protected them.</p><p>Decline in land prices revealed asymmetry between main and nonmain banks in valuing loans.Syndicated loans had not been introduced until 1997. </p></li><li><p>Classification of SPLs as defined in our paper (roughly in line with official classification)Percentages indicate the loan loss provisions applicable in each category. SPLs are special mention and some near bankruptcategory loansUnderwatch5%Special mention15%Near bankruptcy70%De facto bankruptcy100%Judicial bankrutpcy100%55% wedge</p></li><li><p>Banks view and the collateral optionBanks seldom resort to debt-equity swaps as it requires coordination among main banks and nonmain banks very few cases of DESCollateral as an option where liquidation prices is strike priceDebt price (including the option) is capped at par; however if potential upside gain is sufficiently large, the equity view of the SPLs should price it higher than debtDebt is senior to equity in bankruptcy</p></li><li><p>Values (after the haircut i.e. B/A vary widely but generally in the 60 -80 cents/$ range). This is the banks view of their restructured portfolio</p></li><li><p>III. Equity play: Investors bid price LeverageActual return on asset is not as high as publicized. ra = (re + lrb) / (1+l)ra : rate of return on assets rb : borrowing ratel: leverage factor Average spread of distressed corporates: 600-800 bps (these are BB to C corporates)</p></li><li><p>2. Bid price (XT), based on Internal rate of return n XT = R / (1+ra)t + XT+n / (1+ra)n t=1 R: annual return Assume XT = XT+n. Then, XT = R / ra</p><p>Bottom priceAssume R is the inherited interest.....</p></li><li><p>IV. Perpetual debt play: Banks offer price nV = [pi(1-pi-1)L + (1-pi)Ii] / (1+ri) T=1pi : probability of default at period iL : value of the loan at liquidationIi : income from the loan at period iri : discount rate</p><p>Todays SPL value, based on DCFTo simplify.........</p></li><li><p>We assume 5-year investment horizon and, Ii to be 2% of I, where I is book value r to be zero </p><p>Assume liquidation value to be collateral value,Max L = dI, d is collateral coverage ratio.</p><p>Then,V = [pd + 1.1*(1 p)] I</p></li><li><p>Land prices in central cities is at 20% of the peak.Hence, the collateral coverage d is 20%.</p></li><li><p>Tomorrows value (Potential future gain)</p><p>But, what if the economic recovery increases collateral value and lowers default probability?(d increases by roughly 5% for 5 year (compouded) or about 30%; p decreases by 10%)</p></li><li><p>In a future state ( f ), if: d goes up by 30%: df = 20% (1.3)= 26% p goes down by 10%: pf = p -10%</p></li><li><p>Debt restructuring</p><p>Cases of debt restructuring</p><p>In 100 million</p><p>Initial LoanPresent valueDebt equity swap and new captal</p><p>Name of companyABB/ACC/A</p><p>Ichita2847125.0%51.8%</p><p>Chiyoda Kakou Kensetsu83937344.5%182.1%</p><p>Daikyo10,7295,24348.9%6005.6%</p><p>Mitsui Kensetsu4,2262,49359.0%2054.9%</p><p>Kumagai gumi10,5726,45561.1%2001.9%</p><p>Itsuzu Motor10,6826,78263.5%1,0009.4%</p><p>Daiei25,64116,94866.1%2,3009.0%</p><p>Sumitomo Kensetsu3,1492,09766.6%3009.5%</p><p>Hazama4,2242,86167.7%821.9%</p><p>Hasekou5,2113,97076.2%1,50028.8%</p><p>Toyo Shutter28724585.4%103.5%</p><p>Kenwood1,2241,07687.9%25020.4%</p><p>Dia Kensetsu3,1882,88090.3%321.0%</p><p>Nihon Bankin1,4801,38393.4%15010.1%</p><p>Source: Nomura Research Institute</p><p>Haircut</p><p>Haircut factor and bid price to achieve 6.8% return on assets</p><p>R [Interest rate (inherited) on books (%) ]1.522.5</p><p>Haircut to adjust for the above payment of interest (%)77.970.663.2</p><p>Bid price, cents on the dollar (1 minus haircut factor)22.129.436.80.65</p><p>cash flow improvement</p><p>Required earning to achieve higher bid price</p><p>Offer price from bank657485</p><p>4.45.05.8</p><p>Required cash flow improvement (%)161%176%195%</p><p>1.51.51.5</p><p>222</p><p>2.52.52.5</p><p>Leverage</p><p>Leverage =123</p><p>9.57.76.8</p><p>12.09.38.0</p><p>Chart1</p><p>51.3395843805</p><p>54.6253177808</p><p>67.5715180949</p><p>83.5183963653</p><p>75.7511855033</p><p>75.8269366888</p><p>76.4335521823</p><p>77.4271883607</p><p>79.8274311999</p><p>85.1758690903</p><p>90.8826523193</p><p>96.1538461538</p><p>100</p><p>103.5</p><p>107.433</p><p>112.912083</p><p>128.042302122</p><p>156.0835662867</p><p>172.1601736142</p><p>200.9109226078</p><p>226.8284316242</p><p>217.7552943593</p><p>192.9311908023</p><p>171.1299662417</p><p>154.0169696175</p><p>138.923306595</p><p>128.0872886806</p><p>120.2739640711</p><p>110.5317729813</p><p>101.6892311428</p><p>94.0625388071</p><p>86.2553480861</p><p>79.3549202392</p><p>Land price</p><p>7.4197151.3395843805</p><p>6.4197254.6253177808</p><p>23.7197367.5715180949</p><p>23.6197483.5183963653</p><p>-9.3197575.7511855033</p><p>0.1197675.8269366888</p><p>0.8197776.4335521823</p><p>1.3197877.4271883607</p><p>3.1197979.8274311999</p><p>6.7198085.1758690903100</p><p>6.7198190.8826523193106.7</p><p>5.8198296.1538461538112.8886</p><p>41983100117.404144</p><p>3.51984103.5121.51328904</p><p>3.81985107.433126.1307940235</p><p>5.11986112.912083132.5634645187</p><p>13.41987128.042302122150.3269687642</p><p>21.91988156.0835662867183.2485749236</p><p>10.31989172.1601736142202.1231781407</p><p>16.71990200.9109226078235.8777488902</p><p>12.91991226.8284316242266.3059784971100%</p><p>-41992217.7552943593255.6537393572</p><p>-11.41993192.9311908023226.5092130705</p><p>-11.31994171.1299662417200.9136719935</p><p>-101995154.0169696175180.8223047942</p><p>-9.81996138.923306595163.1017189243</p><p>-7.81997128.0872886806150.3797848482</p><p>-6.11998120.2739640711141.2066179725</p><p>-8.11999110.5317729813129.7688819167</p><p>-82000101.6892311428119.3873713634</p><p>-7.5200194.0625388071110.4333185111</p><p>-8.3200286.2553480861101.2673530747</p><p>-8200379.354920239293.165964828735%</p><p>Land price (2)</p><p>197000</p><p>197100</p><p>197200</p><p>197300</p><p>197400</p><p>197500</p><p>197600</p><p>197700</p><p>197800</p><p>197900</p><p>198000</p><p>198100</p><p>6.81982100100</p><p>8.91983106.8106.8</p><p>13.21984116.3052116.3052</p><p>28.81985131.6574864131.6574864</p><p>33.81986169.5748424832169.5748424832</p><p>41.81987226.8911392425226.8911392425</p><p>25.11988321.7316354459321.7316354459</p><p>27.61989402.4862759428402.4862759428</p><p>3.31990513.572488103513.572488103100%</p><p>-15.31991530.5203802104530.5203802104</p><p>-22.41992411.6838150433411.6838150433</p><p>-18.51993335.5223092603335.5223092603</p><p>-24.21994254.3259104193254.3259104193</p><p>-211995200.9174692312200.9174692312</p><p>-141996172.7890235389172.7890235389</p><p>-101997155.510121185155.510121185</p><p>-11.41998137.7819673699137.7819673699</p><p>-12.41999120.697003416120.697003416</p><p>-10.52000108.0238180573108.0238180573</p><p>-10.5200196.681317161396.6813171613</p><p>-10200287.013185445287.013185445217%</p><p>200392.233976571992.2339765719</p><p>200497.454767698697.4547676986</p><p>2005102.6755588253102.6755588253</p><p>2006107.896349952107.896349952</p><p>2007113.1171410787113.1171410787</p><p>Chart2</p><p>0.1884941724198219821982</p><p>0.2013117761198319831983</p><p>0.2192285242198419841984</p><p>0.2481666894198519851985</p><p>0.3196386959198619861986</p><p>0.4276765751198719871987</p><p>0.6064453835198819881988</p><p>0.7586631748198919891989</p><p>0.968054211199019901990</p><p>1111991</p><p>0.77610.91041992</p><p>0.6324410.8529761993</p><p>0.4793895210.7917558081994</p><p>0.378717720810.75148708831995</p><p>0.325697239910.7302788961996</p><p>0.293127515910.71725100641997</p><p>0.259710979110.70388439161998</p><p>0.227506817710.69100272711999</p><p>0.203618601810.68144744072000</p><p>0.182238648610.67289545952001</p><p>0.164014783810.66560591352002</p><p>0.173855670810.66954226830.7521567012</p><p>0.183696557810.66954226830.7551089673</p><p>0.193537444810.66954226830.7580612335</p><p>0.203378331910.66954226830.7610134996</p><p>0.213219218910.66954226830.7639657657</p><p>Collateral value(land price)</p><p>Book value</p><p>Today's value(Default Probability = 40%)</p><p>Tomorrow's value(Default Probability = 30%)</p><p>Up 30 %</p><p>100</p><p>Today and Tomorrow's value of impaired loan</p><p>Land price (3)</p><p>197000197000</p><p>197100197100</p><p>197200197200</p><p>197300197300</p><p>197400197400</p><p>197500197500</p><p>197600197600</p><p>197700197700</p><p>197800197800</p><p>197900197900</p><p>198000198000</p><p>198100198100</p><p>6.819820.18849417240.18849417246.81982100100</p><p>8.919830.20131177610.20131177618.91983106.8106.8</p><p>13.219840.21922852420.219228524213.21984116.3052116.3052</p><p>28.819850.24816668940.248166689428.81985131.6574864131.6574864</p><p>33.819860.31963869590.319638695933.81986169.5748424832169.5748424832</p><p>41.819870.42767657510.427676575141.81987226.8911392425226.8911392425</p><p>25.119880.60644538350.606445383525.11988321.7316354459321.7316354459</p><p>27.619890.75866317480.758663174827.61989402.4862759428402.4862759428</p><p>3.319900.9680542110.9680542113.31990513.572488103513.572488103</p><p>-15.319911111-15.31991530.5203802104530.52038021041212.8081520842</p><p>-22.419920.7760.77610.9104-22.41992411.6838150433411.68381504331165.2735260173</p><p>-18.519930.632440.6324410.852976-18.51993335.5223092603335.52230926031134.8089237041</p><p>-24.219940.479389520.4793895210.791755808-24.21994254.3259104193254.32591041931102.3303641677</p><p>-2119950.37871772080.378717720810.7514870883-211995200.9174692312200.9174692312180.9669876925</p><p>-1419960.32569723990.325697239910.730278896-141996172.7890235389172.7890235389169.7156094155</p><p>-1019970.29312751590.293127515910.7172510064-101997155.510121185155.510121185162.804048474</p><p>-11.419980.25971097910.259710979110.7038843916-11.41998137.7819673699137.7819673699155.712786948</p><p>-12.419990.22750681770.227506817710.6910027271-12.41999120.697003416120.697003416148.8788013664</p><p>-10.520000.20361860180.203618601810.6814474407-10.52000108.0238180573108.0238180573143.8095272229</p><p>-10.520010.18223864860.182238648610.6728954595-10.5200196.681317161396.6813171613139.2725268645</p><p>-1020020.16401478380.164014783810.6656059135-10200287.013185445287.0131854452135.4052741781</p><p>20030.18041626210.173855670810.66954226830.7521567012200395.714503989792.2339765719137.493590628828.3701929716</p><p>20040.19681774050.183696557810.66954226830.75510896732004104.415822534297.4547676986137.493590628829.9364303096</p><p>20050.21321921890.193537444810.66954226830.75806123352005113.1171410787102.6755588253137.493590628831.5026676476</p><p>20060.22962069730.203378331910.66954226830.76101349962006121.8184596233107.896349952137.493590628833.0689049856</p><p>20070.24602217570.213219218910.66954226830.76396576572007130.5197781678113.1171410787137.493590628834.6351423236</p><p>1.40255173071.4025517307</p><p>Debtforgive</p><p>0</p><p>0</p><p>1</p><p>3</p><p>28</p><p>13</p><p>10</p><p>9</p><p>6</p><p>24</p><p>32</p><p>33</p><p>29</p><p>8</p><p>Source: Teikoku Data Bank.</p><p>Number of companies</p><p>Cases of debt forgiveness</p><p>Bankruptcy</p><p>208410.01173848060.0117384806</p><p>188120.01279576030.0127957603</p><p>174760.01107699250.0110769925</p><p>126550.00585211420.0058521142</p><p>101220.00514587260.0051458726</p><p>72340.00295084870.0029508487</p><p>64680.00441886890.0044188689</p><p>107230.0171539370.017153937</p><p>140690.01571730760.0157173076</p><p>145640.01403387230.0140338723</p><p>140610.01144943450.0114494345</p><p>151080.01833393510.0183339351</p><p>148340.01571810370.0157181037</p><p>164640.02694794040.0269479404</p><p>189880.02672534790.0267253479</p><p>153520.02667191450.0266719145</p><p>187690.04634048860.0463404886</p><p>191640.03285610860.0328561086</p><p>190870.02759468530.0275946853</p><p>Source: Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd</p><p>Number of companies</p><p>Total liabilities as % of nominal GDP</p><p>Corporate bankruptcies</p><p>NPL numbrs</p><p>Japan: Progress in Disposal of Nonperforming Loans</p><p>(In billion yen)</p><p>19951996199719981999200020012002</p><p>NPL on banking book 1/28,50421,78929,75829,62730,36632,51542,02834,849</p><p>of which special mention loans4,2615,4387,14111,87711,696</p><p>NPL off banking book 2/9,20015,100</p><p>Operating profit6236316396456176267204,674</p><p>1/ NPLs are those reported by banks for risk management purposes.</p><p>2/ Since 2001, the FSA has acknowledged sevaral schemes that lead to reducing NPLs, which include transferring NPLs to special purpose</p><p>vehicles, entrusting the restructuring of NLPs to RCC, and writing off NPLs.</p><p>Corp restructuring</p><p>alllisted</p><p>1984208411.2%3644282310432</p><p>1985188121.3%4235520330969</p><p>1986174761.1%383184345852</p><p>1987126550.6%21220362604</p><p>1988101220.5%20000388661</p><p>198972340.3%12320417507</p><p>19900199064680.4%19950451473</p><p>199101991107231.7%8148285474993</p><p>199211992140691.6%7601152483607</p><p>199331993145641.4%6847192487891</p><p>1994281994140611.1%562992491640</p><p>1995131995151081.8%9241665504038</p><p>1996101996148341.6%81221325516729</p><p>199791997164642.7%140442635521153</p><p>199861998189882.7%137481213514418</p><p>1999241999153522.7%13621626510687</p><p>2000322000187694.6%238852676515424</p><p>2001332001191643.3%165192880502768</p><p>2002292002190872.8%137821943499444</p><p>1Q/200381Q/20030.0%</p><p>Corp restructuring (2)</p><p>198450.1%282310432</p><p>198510.2%520330969</p><p>198630.0%84345852</p><p>198700.0%0362604</p><p>198800.0%0388661</p><p>198900.0%0417507</p><p>19900199000.0%0451473</p><p>19910199110.1%285474993</p><p>19921199240.0%152483607</p><p>19933199350.0%192487891</p><p>199428199420.0%92491640</p><p>199513199560.1%665504038</p><p>199610199630.3%1325516729</p><p>199791997140.5%2635521153</p><p>199861998100.2%1213514418</p><p>199924199970.1%626510687</p><p>2000322000120.5%2676515424</p><p>2001332001140.6%2880502768</p><p>2002292002290.4%1943499444</p><p>1Q/20038...</p></li></ul>