balfanz, herzog, & mac iver 2007 keeping students on a graduation path in philadelphia’s...

Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007

Keeping Students on a Graduation Path in Philadelphia’s

Middle-Grades Schools

Early Identification & Effective Interventions

Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver (2007)


Research Questions

1. How many students exhibit early warning signs that they are

beginning to disengage from schooling at the start of the middle

grades in high poverty schools?2. Can schools easily identify and

effectively rescue students who have high odds of ultimately

dropping out?


Data and Methods

• We followed all 13,000 of Philadelphia’s public school students who were enrolled in the 6th grade in October 1996. We followed them through October 2004 (1.25 years beyond their expected graduation date)

• We also looked at 3 more recent cohorts of Philadelphia’s 6th-graders and at cohorts in two other cities to verify our findings


Cont. – Data and Methods

• We did a preliminary screen of about 20 variables (e.g., test scores, over age for grade, course marks, course failures, attendance, behavior marks, status and demographic indicators) to see which, if any, could identify as early as 6th grade students at high risk for slipping off a graduation pathway

• We looked for variables with a high yield (i.e., about 75% or more of students with this characteristic do not make it to 12th grade on time)


Cont. – Data and Methods

• Once we identified these flags, we then examined how well they predicted a student’s success in graduating from the Philadelphia school district on time or within one and a quarter extra years.

• The graduation rates we report are lower than official calculations because they don’t adjust for transfers out of the district. 15% of those who left the district were transfers out.


Findings – 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of “Slipping Off Path”

• Attending school 80% or less of the time

• Receiving a poor final behavior mark or a suspension

• Failing Math

• Failing English


6th-Grade Course Failure as a Predictor of Not Graduating

• Course failure was a much better predictor of not graduating than were low test scores.

• Students who failed either a math course or an English/Reading course in sixth grade rarely graduated from the district.

Did 6th-graders who FAILED MATH in 1997 (n=1801) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?

% who were in ….

In 2003 (on time) In 2004 (1 yr. late)

9th grade 4 1

10th grade 9 1

11th grade 8 2

12th grade 19 8

% of students who actually graduated

13 6

Cum. % who left the District

61 75

Did 6th-graders who FAILED ENGLISH in 1997 (n=1409) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?

% who were in ….


9th grade 5 1

10th grade 9 2

11th grade 8 2

12th grade 16 9


12 6


62 74


6th-Grade Attendance as a Predictor of Not Graduating

• Attending school less than 90% of the time increases the odds that a student will not graduate.

• When a sixth-grader’s attendance dips below 80% (missing 36 days or more in the year), the student has only a 1 in 6 chance of graduating from the district on time or one-year late.

Did LOW ATTENDING 6TH Graders in 1997 (n=1934) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?

% who were in ….


9th grade 3 1

10th grade 6 1

11th grade 4 1

12th grade 17 5


13 4


69 79


Poor Behavior in 6th-Grade as a Predictor of Not Graduating

• Students who were suspended slipped off the graduation path in large numbers.

• 845 (6%) of the sixth-graders received one or more out of school suspensions. Only 20% of these students graduated on time or one year late.

• 222 sixth-graders received in-school suspensions. Only 17% graduated on time or one year late.


Poor Behavior (cont.)

• Receiving a final unsatisfactory behavior grade in any subject in the sixth-grade significantly reduced the chances that sixth-graders would graduate from the school district.

• A very large number (4,893) and percent (38%) received at least one final unsatisfactory behavior grade.

Did 6th-Graders With an Unsatisfactory Behavior Grade in 1997 (n=4893) Graduate On Time or 1 Yr. Late?

% who were in ….


9th grade 3 1

10th grade 7 1

11th grade 7 2

12th grade 31 8


24 5


52 64

Percent of Sixth-Graders Graduating on Time or 1 Year Late

Failure & Behavior Combinations

On-Time Grads 1-Yr-Late Grads

Fail English but Good Behavior (n=176)

14% 7%

Fail English & Poor Beh. (n=725)

6% 5%

Fail Math but Good Behavior (n=298)

16% 8%

Fail Math & Poor Beh. (n=1006)

8% 5%

Graduation rates for 6th Graders with Different Numbers of Risk Factors

# of Risk Factors N Percent Who Graduate

None 6265 56%

Only 1 3498 36%

2 1329 21%

3 619 13%

4 326 7%

1 or more 5772 29%


Discussion

• We were able to find four variables with a very high predictive yield that identify the majority of sixth-graders who fall off the graduation path

• These variables are each commonly measured and collectively capture a significant portion of a district’s future dropouts


Implications

• Students fall off the graduation path in different but identifiable ways.

• In 6th grade, most future dropouts have just one of the big four risk factors – especially poor behavior or poor attendance

• Some have two risk factors, especially poor behavior plus course failure (in English or mathematics)

• Less than 8% of the sixth-graders had more than two of the big four indicators.


Why do you think so few sixth-graders recover once they display one of the big four

warning signs?


Implications

• Academic and behavioral problems at the start of the middle grades do not self-correct (at least in Philadelphia and the two other cities where we have replicated this work)

• The most common and very harmful response to students who struggle in 6th grade is to wait and “hope they grow out of it”. But, they do not typically recover, they drop out.

• Early intervention is absolutely essential.


Effective Interventions

• Research comparing outcomes in Talent Development Middle Schools with matched other schools in Philadelphia suggest that comprehensive school reform can significantly reduce the number of students who develop a poor attendance habit, who fail math, or who fail English and can produce significantly higher graduation rates.


Comprehensive Reforms Must be Combined with Targeted Interventions

• Additional interventions specifically focused on improving behavior and attendance must be added


What characterizes effective interventions for behavior and

attendance?


Common Features of Effective Interventions for Behavior and

Attendance• Positive behavior and good attendance is

constantly recognized, modeled, and promoted• The first absence or incident of misbehavior

brings a consistent, appropriate response• The intervention uses simple data collection and

analysis tools that enable teachers and administrators to better understand the school’s absenteeism or misbehavior problems

• Attendance and behavior teams regularly meet to analyze data and devise solutions


Shepherding of the Initially Unresponsive

• If the student is a low attender, the shepherd might call the student each day the student is absent to communicate that the student is missed and to ask the reason for non-attendance.

• If the student has behavior problems, shepherding might involve asking each of the student’s teachers to complete a simple behavioral record and then checking at the end of the day how the student did.


A 3-Stage Intervention Model

1. Schoolwide reforms aimed at alleviating 75% or so of the problem behaviors including poor attendance

2. Shepherding for the 15% to 20% of students who need additional supports beyond the schoolwide reforms

3. Intensive efforts involving specialists (counselors, social workers) for the 5% to 10% who need more clinical types of support


A Promising Path to Higher Graduation Rates

• Identify those who need sustained intervention

• Provide both comprehensive schoolwide reforms and more targeted and individually-focused interventions to prevent and alleviate student disengagement

balfanz, herzog, & mac iver 2007 keeping students on a graduation path in philadelphia’s...

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