automotive 4.0 outlook and implications sebastian feldmann... ·...

TRAN hearing on "Towards a European Road Safety Area"

Brussels, February 16th 2016

Automotive 4.0 – Outlook and Implications

Sebastian Feldmann

Partner - Roland Berger GmbH

2 20160216_RolandBerger_SFeldmann_TRAN hearing_vF.pptx

Contents Page

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© Roland Berger

A. Roland Berger at a glance 3

B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0 10

C. Short CV: Sebastian Feldmann 13


A. Roland Berger at a glance


Roland Berger is a truly global and fully independent firm, founded upon a European heritage and solely owned by our partners

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Our profile

Source: Roland Berger

Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger

50 offices in 36 countries, with around 2,400 employees

Nearly 220 RB Partners currently serving

~1,000 international clients


For each individual project, we set up teams whose members have various competencies and develop customized solutions

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Our competence matrix


Function

Ind

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Con

s. G

oods

&

Ret

ail

Eng

. Pro

duct

s &

Hig

h Te

ch

Ene

rgy

&

Util

ities

Digital

Operations

Private Equity

Restructuring & Corporate Finance

Strategy

Aut

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ive

Che

mic

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&

Pha

rma

Fin

anci

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Ser

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s

TM

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Tra

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Civ

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Infr

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Leadership & Transformation


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THINK ACT, our international client magazine, is an award-winning read for global top decision makers to form an independent opinion


Excellence at Roland Berger – Thought leadership

> Demonstrate thought leadership to 20,000 top decision makers worldwide

> Have won several "Best of Corporate Publishing" awards, as well as international design awards in the U.S.

We …


Recent studies & articles in 2015 (selection)

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The Roland Berger Automotive Competence Center is a THOUGHT LEADER and regularly delivers landmark studies

ACC Insights

> The Automotive Competence Center's client magazine

> Going out to top-match decision makers in the automotive business globally

> Three to four publications per year

> Circulation of around 3,500 copies per issue

Publications and studies

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2014 > Assessment of current situation, success factors and

future challenges > Recommendations of short and long term actions for

automotive suppliers

Automated vehicles Index Q2 2015 > Presentation of competitive positions of world´s

leading automotive nations > Illustration of necessary against prevailing legal

framework

Automotive 4.0 - A disruption and new reality in the US? > Identification of major, potentially disruptive trends > Illustration and quantification of various scenarios and

their impacts on the automotive industry


On the road toward the autonomous truck > Functional demands on OEM´s and Suppliers in the

development of truck automation until 2025 > Identification of major technical and legal challenges


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Spotlight: we regularly contribute publications on automated vehicles, also to support European car industry competitiveness

Roland Berger studies: recent examples for automated car and truck / Automotive 4.0


Autonomous driving: Disruptive innovation that promises to change the automotive industry as we know it – it’s time for every player to think:act!

On the road toward the autonomous truck: Opportunities for OEMs and suppliers

“Automated Vehicles” index published by fka and Roland Berger: Analysis of the competitive position of the relevant automotive nations (Germany, US, China, Sweden, the UK, South Korea, France, Italy and Japan)


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Our independent and deep expertise is sought after by INTERNATIONAL PRESS AND MEDIA

Source: Press, Roland Berger

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B. Driving assistance development and regulatory key aspects to secure European competitiveness for Automotive 4.0


Market- and customer- as well as megatrends promote a rapid change within the automotive and mobility industry

Opportunities in the Mobility Sector

Market- and customer-Trends

Megatrends

Soaring individuality

Altered consumer behavior

Diminishing boundaries

Increasing demand for convenience

Enhanced interconnectedness

Demographic change

Urbanization and growth of megacities

Technological progress

Scarcity of resources and climate change

Globalization and Glo-Calization

> Niche segments (also vehicles!) arise

> People strive for autonomy and their "personal journey"

> People use and share instead of own (sharing economy)

> Increasing trust in "automation" capabilities

> New players do enter established markets

> Markets increasingly tend to cooperate

> HW and SW merge

> People face more time pressure, while having higher comfort expectations

> People, vehicles and infrastructure are in-creasingly connected (e.g. by real-time data, smartphones)

Influences on penetration speed of automated driving



Our recent study displays that automated mobility already becomes a huge market; current mobility service solutions are mostly replaced

Value-add by elements of the US mobility market1) [USD bn]

Source: Press articles, annual reports, US Census, NHTSA, FHWA, IHS, AAA, NADA, Automotive Fleet, SBD, Roland Berger

1) Considers only value-add items; does not include fuel, depreciation, insurance, parking etc.; 2) Maintenance is not included; 3) Based on 2013 figures of Zipcar, Uber, Car2Go, DriveNow, Lyft, Sidecar, etc.

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1414 -1

-14 -8

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Mobility-on-demand service Car/ride sharing3) Rental car Taxi and limo2)

Today Auto 4.0


German automotive OEMs have the most extensive range of partially automated driving functions across all segments

Roland Berger AV Index – Activities of national OEMs

Country OEM activities

High

Low

Medium

Ava

ilab

ility

of

fun

ctio

ns

(mas

s pr

oduc

tion)

State of development (mass production and prototypes)

High Low Medium

High availability of partially automated driving functions in different model series produced by German premium and mass-market OEMs

Tesla is currently the leading US vendor to offer partially automated systems in mass-produced vehicles (Tesla Model S)

Japanese OEMs currently sell partially automated driver assistance systems mainly via their premium brands (Lexus, Infiniti)

Volvo has a strong focus on safety systems and also offers partially automated driving functions in selected vehicles

Source: fka; Roland Berger


Launch horizon for automated driving functions

Source: Press research; conference papers; Bosch; Roland Berger

Market indicates that first level 3 systems should be available by 2017 – Level 4 is expected to be launched starting from 2020

~2013 ~2020 ~2016 ~2014 ~2015 ~2017 ~2018 ~2019 ~2025 >2025

Parking assistant (steering only) Valet parking

"Parking with app"

Emergency braking assistant and pedestrian detection

Emergency steering assistant

Emergency cut-off

Lane change assistant City pilot

Lane departure warning

Intersection assistant

Highway pilot

Traffic jam pilot Fully automated driving

Parking

Safety

Driving

Construction area assist

Traffic jam assist

Level 3 Level 4

Exit2Exit


Key blockers are e.g. limiting ECE regulations – need to define world-wide technical standards securing European competiveness

Key legislative levers for enabling Auto 4.0 and increasing road safety


Vehicle registration > Current registration processes favors the US position: While in Germany, the authorization of

automated vehicles is not explicitly prohibited (as testing vehicles). In Nevada and other states of the USA, public road operation of these vehicles is explicitly allowed.

ECE regulation > In the US, ECE regulations were replaced by own regulations (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Stan-

dard): for instance ECE R79 (automatic steering function) is seen as main show stopper on EU level

Security & accident avoidance > Although no. of car accidents and also their fatalness will decrease with further technology, it is

important to support a safe and reliable introduction of in-car data loggers / black boxes as proposed by NHTSA as a mandatory requirement in Europe

Data privacy protection > In order to support personal data autonomy, required in-car data logger should store data according

to agreed European and world-wide data collection standards

Liability > Administration, associations and insurances should define homogeneous European standards

together with the industry to build confidence of consumers but also protect manufacturers

Action fields Impact on road safety

Very important Less important

Low High

Low High

Low High

Low High

Low High

EU also needs to closely watch other regulatory developments, like e.g. C-t-C / C-t-I communication in the US


C. Short CV – Sebastian Feldmann


Education

1997-2001 WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management (Germany) – diploma in economics and business admini-stration (Diplom-Kaufmann, MBA)

1999-2000 J. L. Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto (Canada) - MBA

1999 Kobe University, Faculty of Business Administration (Japan) - MBA

Position: Partner

Languages

> German (mother tongue)

> English (fluent)

> Portuguese (advanced)

> French (basic)

> Japanese (basic)

Key Projects

> Several business strategy / definition / implementation projects for leading players in the Automotive and Industrial Machinery industries

> Strategy development for the Used Truck business unit of a German OEM, implementation of global business and profitability steering mechanisms

> Global supply chain and operations transformation program for a leading mining equipment OEM

> Product development enhancement, Innovation management, and standardization & cost-down program for a global leading vehicle OEM

> Digitization and business model transformation for a leading automotive component supplier

Methodological skills

> Innovation & Business Model transformation

> Service Excellence and Automotive 4.0

> Operations and Supply Chain Excellence and transformation

Nationality: German

Industry skills

> Automotive (especially Passenger Car and Commercial Vehicle OEMs)

> Engineered Products and High-Tech

> Rail (Vehicle OEMs)

> Aerospace

Office: Munich

Professional Experience

since 2015 Roland Berger GmbH

2010-2014 PwC Management Consulting (until 2012: PRTM Management Consultants GmbH)

2005-2010 Ricardo Strategic Consulting GmbH

2001-2005 A.T. Kearney GmbH


Sebastian Feldmann


Technically spoken: for nearly every problem there is a solution, now mainly validation/testing and legal frameworks are the limitation


Contact

Sebastian Feldmann Partner

Roland Berger GmbH Sederanger 1 | 80538 München | Germany

Phone +49 89 9230 8317 | Mobile +49 160 744 8317

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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