automation of professional work

Jeffrey Funk

Author of “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries,”

Stanford University Pressand Forthcoming,

Searching for Gold: Using Patterns of Technology Change to Find Valuable Opportunities

For information on other presentations, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

Improvements in electronic components continue• Moore’s Law may be slowing, but not improvements in

graphic processors, wireless chips, 2D and 3D camera chips, LEDs, lasers, MEMS, and biometrics

Improvements in Internet (both wireline and wireless) speed and cost, facilitate• Big Data and Cloud Computing

• Machine Learning

• Artificial Intelligence

• Virtual and Augmented Reality

More types of data will be collected and analyzed

New sources of data• “Things,” thus Internet of Things

• Bio-sensors for health care data

New forms of smart phones and wearable computing can manage data• Better touch displays, voice recognition,

• Virtual and augmented reality, wearable

http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/sensors-mems-internet-of-things , http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/bioelectronics-

biosensors-smart-phones-and-health-care, http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/the-future-of-displays,

http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/wearable-computing-and-human-computer-interfaces

Routine Non-Routine

Manual Assembly line: being automated

Nail Salon; won’t be automated

Cognitive Many Jobs are being Auto-mated!!!!

Hardest to Automate. Where you want to be

Easier to make computers exhibit adult (calculations)

than child (perception and mobility) behavior

Low-level sensorimotor still require much

computational resources

Most Job Growth is for Non-Routine Cognitive -

Routine Cognitive Work isn’t Rising

http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item

&id=2094:trump-vs-the-robots-us-jobs-and-promises&Itemid=206

http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item

&id=2094:trump-vs-the-robots-us-jobs-and-promises&Itemid=206

Unemployment Rate Much Higher for

Routine than Nonroutine Cognitive

Legal Journalism Accounting Architecture Engineering

ABA: American Bar Association

BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.mybudget360.com/law-school-bubble

-law-tuition-law-degrees-in-bubble-applications-down/

Graduates

Old work involved paper• Filling out forms, asking questions

• Now done with online questionnaires

Large cases involves lots of research, which can now be done with computer searches

Computers and artificial intelligence will continue to eliminate legal jobs

Law schools should be helping students• understand these changes

• how to use existing and future tools

• how to develop next generation ones

Law schools should also be helping students understand the larger picture• What types of overall value can lawyers provide to

society?

• How can lawyers help reduce litigation time and cost?

Number of articles written by robots is growing rapidly • Just input facts and let algorithm

write paper

Associated Press (AP) creates more than 3,000 financial reports per quarter

Some estimates that 90 percent of news could be algorithmically generated by the mid-2020s

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/if-an-algorithm-wrote-this-how-would-you-even-know.html?rref=opinion

&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article

https://onlinejournalismblog.com/2015/01/07/the-

metajournalist-and-the-return-of-personalised-news-

research-on-automated-reporting/

https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrinknp_

800_800/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAVvAAAAJG

U0ZDZhNGYxLTAxODAtNGJiYi1iYjgwLWZ

mNzNjYjkwNDNiOQ.jpg

Should be helping students• understand these changes


Should also be preparing students for being the drivers of these changes• New software tools require developers who

understand journalism

• Journalists can help develop next generation tools, and promote ethical values in robo-journalism

Accounting continues to become more automated

Individuals prepare taxes with software or do it online

Business accounting is also becoming more automated• Cash flow done with QuickBook, Xero,

Kashflows

• Compliance is checked automatically

• Internal accounting focuses on problem solving, like collecting payments

Tax work changing from compliance to planning

• Compliances done with TurboTax, H&R Block, At Home

TaxACT

• But even planning is threatened; planning and compliance

are different sides of same coin

Compliance works forward from rules and

regulations while planning works backwards from

these rules and regulations

Samples (chosen by heuristics) used

in past to minimize calculations

Big Data enables software to analyze

100% of the data, and continuously

Governments use software and big

data to assess tax returns, estimate

chances of fraud

• Many require original electronic records,

as opposed to paper

• Electronic invoices are harder to fake than

are paper ones http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issu

es/2014/apr/automated-audits-

20127039.html

Should be helping students• understand these changes


Should also be preparing students for being the drivers of these changes• New software tools require developers who

understand accounting

• Accountants can help develop next generation tools

Remember wooden models?

Software eliminates them

• Use CAD and CAE ( VR and AR

below) to create more design

possibilities

• Input objectives and designs are

proposed

• Computations done automatically

to test more radical designs

Individuals use software to become their own

architects

Software helps them get government approvals

In future, should be done automatically

Open source designs becoming widely available

• Sketchup3d has one million designs

• Grab Cad has 660,000 designs

• Designs shared on many sites (even Pinterest)

Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press

Reduce the need for plywood mock ups and allow architects

to change plans and allow clients an immersive view

3D CAD Enables Better Design

Examples of 3D CAD for BuildingsLeft are real buildings, Right is 3D CAD

Connected computers enable connected work

Architects can work more closely with clients, local

governments, local citizens and other entities

Regulatory compliance can be done faster and in

future automatically

Enables higher level work by architects and city

governments

Augmented Reality (AR) provides more capabilities

Iris VR Architecture Demo Walkthrough

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjEcA2p_mMY

Iris VR CAD can do even better:Allowing Users to See the Inside of the Building

Big move towards Pre-Fab/Modular Housing

• To reduce construction time, http://www.dirtt.net/

• No screws, nails, snap fits

• Change dimensions of one part, CAD system

automatically changes dimensions on other parts

• Uses ICE software, borrowed from video games

• Easy to reconfigure designs and rooms

All of this depends on change in work of

architects and civil engineers

Pre-fab Housing Method is one reason some Chinese companies can construct large buildings in less than one month

Many such articles and videos but here are two of them

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/30/chinese-construction-firm-erects-57-storey-skyscraper-in-19-days

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html

Work of engineering has been

changing for longest time of all

professions

Calculators from late 1960s

Computer-Aided Design and

Engineering from 1970s

• These changes have continued and still

continue

• Automation of calculations and design

• Improving the productivity of engineers

and expanding their work

Better software keeps coming

• enabling more high level design work

• more design options to be considered

Most engineering analysis has

been automated

• Mechanical Eng: fluid and heat flow

• Electrical Engi: chip and board design

• Civil Eng: stress analysis

• Yet engineering program haven’t

reduced emphasis on mathematical

analysis

Lower cost software also changes work

• Done online with software-as-a-service

• Enables more design options to be considered by small firms, individuals, emerging economies

• For example, water flow analysis for fish farms

Can engineers think of other examples?

• Can you automate your job?

• Better to provide the solution than to have your job eliminated by someone else’s solution

Engineering schools are far ahead of other professions• Providing students with tools

• Electrical Engineering helps some students understand the fundamentals of tools and develop new ones

But they rarely help students understand drivers of change, nor how it impacts work• Still too much focus on math and engineering

calculations

• Not enough high-level design and design projects

Engineering schools need to place more emphasis on high- than low-level work

Design projects Conceptual design How to generate new ideas How to deal with systems

• Not just physical systems

• Economics of systems, including changing economics

• Competition among firms in systems

Shouldn’t Universities be Changing? Teaching different things? Helping students adapt now and in

future? Students need to make decisions

about their careers How can they do so without good

information?

Basic challenge

• changes are driven by factors outside disciplinary journals

that are emphasized by university faculties

For example• Work of lawyers is not primarily changing because law is

changing

• Work of accountants is not primarily changing because

accounting rules are changing

• Same can be said for work of journalists, architects, doctors,

nurses, financial analysts, engineers and scientists

Changes come from

• New types of software, that are enabled by better hardware and

Internet

Better hardware such as computers, smart phones, tablet

computers continues to emerge, as does better Internet

These improvements enable new forms of software

• that enhances productivity of professionals

• sometimes reduces demand for professionals such as lawyers

New software also benefits from

• improvements in cloud computing and Big Data

• more recently machine learning, artificial intelligence, bio-metrics,

and Augmented and Virtual reality

Most work involves machines • Professionals work in front of computers, connected to Internet

• When not in front of desktop or laptop computer, they are connected to Internet via smart phones or tablet computers

The future is high-level work • Low-level calculations, searches, and writing are being

automated

• Engineers, architects, scientists must do high-level conceptual design because computers do drawings, calculations, find info

• Accountants and financial analysists must think more strategically about a business because computers to most calculations and even audits

Students are taught very little about tools or impact tools might have on demand for professions • because tools and drivers of them are not published in

disciplinary journals that professors emphasize

Professors follow disciplinary journals because• they are measured by publications in them

• journals purportedly represent core knowledge of field

Engineering programs generally do the best• But they don’t cover future of tools and their drivers

• Even electrical engineering and computer science programs discuss these tools only in special courses and don’t help students understand existing and future of work

Help students better understand existing and future work• including free market, how it works, and technology change

• Students should be learning about what is happening now and what will likely happen in the near future

These issues are not covered in history of technology courses • It is recent, current and future changes that are relevant for

students

• Knowledge of industry and what is happening in industry is essential for helping students understand existing and future work

My researching and teaching addresses technology change

• What is impact of better integrated circuits, Internet speed and cost,

and smart phones on emergence of new types of products, services,

and content including new forms of productivity enhancing tools?

Received NTT DoCoMo Mobile Science Award in 2004 for

lifetime contributions to social science aspects of mobile

communication

My course slides and group presentations are available on

my slideshare accounts.

• http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations;

http://www.slideshare.net/Funk97/presentations

Internet of Things http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/sensors-mems-internet-of-things

Bio-sensors for health care data http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/bioelectronics-biosensors-smart-phones-and-health-care

Better displays• http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/the-future-of-displays

Virtual and augmented reality, wearable computing• http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/wearable-computing-

and-human-computer-interfaces