authoritarian and democratic data science in an experimenting society
TRANSCRIPT
Authoritarian & Democratic
Data Science in an
Experimenting SocietyMIT CMS/W, Feb 16, 2017
@natematias
natematias.com
civic.mit.edu/users/natematias
J. Nathan Matias
McMillen, Andrew. Wikipedia Is Not
Therapy: How the online encyclopedia
manages mental illness and suicide
threats in its volunteer community.
Backchannel. Illustration by Laurent Hrybyk
Goldman, Adam. (2016). The Comet Ping Pong Gunman Answers Our Reporter’s Questions. New
York Times
Report to Law Enforcement
Report to reddit Platform
Report to Community Moderators
Up-Vote or Down-Vote
negative feedback leads to significant
behavioral changes that are detrimental to
the community.
Not only do authors of negatively-evaluated
content contribute more, but also their future
posts are of lower quality, and are
perceived by the community as such.
Cheng, J., Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, C. & Leskovec, J. (2014). How Community Feedback Shapes User
Behavior. ICWSM 2014.
Downvote
Button
No
Downvote
Button
Gerber, A. S., & Green, D. P. (2012). Field experiments: Design, analysis, and interpretation. WW Norton.
Experiments Per Day on bing.com
Kohavi, R., Deng, A., Frasca, B., Walker, T., Xu, Y., & Pohlmann, N. (2013, August). Online controlled
experiments at large scale. In Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on
Knowledge discovery and data mining (pp. 1168-1176). ACM.
Geiger, S. (2015). Does facebook have civil servants? On governmentality and computational social
science. In Workshop on Ethics for Studying Sociotechnical Systems in a Big Data World. Vancouver,
British Columbia, Canada.
academic and industry researchers who
work for institutions that build and operate our
digitally mediated public spaces are either
directly doing governance work themselves
or building systems that have been delegated
governance work.
In this sense, researchers can be said to
form a core part of the elite civil service
and bureaucratic corps of our era
MacKinnon, R. (2012). Consent of the networked: The worldwide struggle for Internet freedom.
Basic Books
Companies act as the new sovereigns of
cyberspace… most companies’ failure to take
responsibility for their power over citizens’
political lives, and their lack of
accountability in the exercise of that
power, corrodes the Internet’s democratic
potential
AUTHORITARIAN
& DEMOCRATIC
DATA SCIENCE
in an Experimenting
Society
MANAGEMENT
&
POLICY
Tiziana Terranova (2000) Free Labor: Producing Culture for the Digital Economy. Social Text
the Internet is about the extraction of value
out of continuous, updateable work
[consumption & production of culture]
[….]
Such means of production need to be
cultivated by encouraging the worker to
participate in a culture of exchange, whose
flows are mainly kept within the company
Prahalad, C. K., and Venkat Ramaswamy. 2004. Co-Creation Experiences: The next Practice in Value
Creation. Journal of Interactive Marketing 18 (3): 5–14.
the market is becoming a forum for
conversations
managers need to invest in building new
infrastructure capabilities, as well as new
functional and governance capabilities
Gillespie, T. (2010). The politics of “platforms.” New Media & Society, 12(3), 347–364.
[platform] choices about what can appear,
how it is organized, how it is monetized, what
can be removed and why, and what the
technical architecture allows and prohibits, are
all real and substantive interventions into
the contours of public discourse.
JoAnne Yates (1989) Control Through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management.
Johns Hopkins University Press
Systematic management attempted to
improve control over–and thus the efficiency
of–managers, workers, materials, and
production processes
JoAnne Yates (1989) Control Through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management.
Johns Hopkins University Press
Management
Theories for
Scaled
Operations
Growth in
Scale &
Complexity of
Industry
Comm & Info
Technology
JoAnne Yates (1989) Control Through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management.
Johns Hopkins University Press
Systematicall
y-Defined
Roles
Stopwatch
Frank Bunker Gilbreth and Lillian M. Gilbreth (1910-1924) Original films of Frank & Lillian Gilbreth.
Source: Prelinger Archives, via Wikimedia Commons
JoAnne Yates (1989) Control Through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management.
Johns Hopkins University Press
Performance
Monitoring
Statistics
Systematicall
y-Defined
Roles
Stopwatch
Chandler Jr, A. D. (1977). The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business.
Harvard University Press.
For the middle and top managers, control
through statistics quickly became both a
science and an art. This need for accurate
information led to the devising of improved
methods for collecting, collating, and
analyzing a wide variety of data generated
by the day-to-day operations of the enterprise.
16" Barbette Carriage Model 1919. Watertown Arsenal. Source: Watertown Free Library
Valentine, R. (1916). The progressive relation between efficiency and consent. Bulletin of Taylor
Society, 2(1)
Valentine, R. (1916). The progressive relation between efficiency and consent. Bulletin of Taylor
Society, 2(1)
A free man—a consenting man— is the more
desirable worker…
organized consent as well as individual
consent is the basis of a more efficient
group.
…build up a finer texture of democracy
through self-training groups, constantly growing
in strength through the consideration of
scientifically-accurate data.
Marshall, Edward. (1913) Industrial Psychologist’ to Prevent Labor Troubles. The New York Times,
April 27, 1913: Magazine Section Part Five, 11
Adolf Hitler delivers a speech at the Kroll Opera House,
Dec 11, 1941. Image source: Wikimedia Commons
Lewin, K. (1944). The dynamics of group action. Educational Leadership, 1(4), 195–200.
Efficient democracy means
organization, but it means
organization and leadership on
different principles than
autocracy.
It is essential that a
democratic commonwealth
and its educational system
apply the rational procedures
of scientific investigation to
its own processes of group
living.
Kurt Lewin. Image source: Wikipedia
Burnes, B. (2007). Kurt Lewin and the Harwood Studies The Foundations of OD. The Journal of Applied
Behavioral Science, 43(2), 213-231.
continue
autocratic
management
Harwood Pajama Factory Experiments
• Increasing Productivity
• Reducing Employee Turnover
workers
discuss &
vote
on
management
changes
Wikimedia CommonsCoch, L., & French, J. (1948). Overcoming resistance to change. Human Relations, 1, 512–532.
Intervention
Design
Goal
Setting &
Variable
Definition
Analysis &
Interpretatio
n
Group
Discussions
Group
Votes
Marrow, A. J. (1977). The Practical Theorist: The Life and Work of Kurt Lewin. Pubn Dev Co.
Adelman, C. (1993). Kurt Lewin and the origins of action research. Educational action research, 1(1),
7-24.
the residents of the affected community
must be involved in the research process
from the beginning
we will build the Great Society. It is a
Society where no child will go unfed,
and no youngster will go unschooled
Johnson, Lyndon. 323 -
Remarks in Athens at Ohio
University. May 7, 1964
Image source: Wikipedia: First Lady
Lady Bird Johnson visits a Head
Start class in 1966
US National Security Agency System/360 85 Console in 1971. Image source: NSA via Wikimedia Commons
Campbell, D. T. (1998). The experimenting society. In The experimenting society: Essays in honor of
Donald T. Campbell (p. 35). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
Can the open society be an
experimenting society?
Popper, K. (1947). The open society and its enemies. Routledge.
Closed Societies
“the learned should rule”
Open Societies
the public evaluates &
criticizes government
“so that bad or
incompetent rulers can
be prevented from doing
too much damage”
Popper, K. (1947). The open society and its enemies. Routledge.
the social engineer conceives as the
scientific basis of politics something like a
social technology
the Utopian engineer will have to be deaf to
many complaints ; in fact, it will be part of his
business to suppress unreasonable
objections. But with it, he must invariably
suppress reasonable criticism also
Popper, K. (1947). The open society and its enemies. Routledge.
The piecemeal engineer will, accordingly,
adopt the method of searching for, and
fighting against, the greatest and most
urgent evils of society…
There will be a possibility of reaching a
reasonable compromise and therefore of
achieving the improvement by democratic
methods.
Image source: Wikipedia: First Lady
Lady Bird Johnson visits a Head
Start class in 1966
Williams, W., & Evans, J. W. (1969). The Politics of Evaluation: The Case of Head Start. The ANNALS
of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 385(1), 118–132
the absolute power of analysis was
oversold
the conflicts in the system between the
analytical staff and the operators of the
programs was underestimated.
Williams, W. (1971). Social Policy Research and Analysis: The Experience in the Federal Social
Agencies. American Elsevier Publishing Company.
Discard
Neutrality
Government Social
Scientists Should
Propose
Policy
Manage
Policies
Advocate
for Policy
RESEARCH is
DESIGN
& we can
REDESIGN our
METHODS to follow
DEMOCRATIC VALUES
Campbell, D. T. (1998). The experimenting society. In The experimenting society: Essays in honor of
Donald T. Campbell (p. 35). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
Participation in policy experiments is more
akin to participating in democratic political
decision making than to participating in the
psychology laboratory. These restrictions all
have costs in the validity of experimental
inference.
the task of first priority for the methodologists
of the experimenting society is to design
experimental arrangements that obviate
these difficulties
Campbell, D. T. (1998). The experimenting society. In The experimenting society: Essays in honor of
Donald T. Campbell (p. 35). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
The Contagious Cross-Validation Model for
Local Programs…
national funding would support adoptions that
included locally designed cross-validating
evaluations…
Campbell, D. T. (1998). The experimenting society. In The experimenting society: Essays in honor of
Donald T. Campbell (p. 35). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
it is those who have situation-specific
information who make the best critics, and
the best judges, of the plausibility of most of
the rival hypotheses…
we must provide these nonprofessional
observers with the self-confidence and
opportunity to publicly disagree with the
conclusions of the professional applied social
scientists.
JoAnne Yates (1989) Control Through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management.
Johns Hopkins University Press
Management
Theories for
Scaled
Operations
Growth in
Scale &
Complexity
Comm & Info
Technology
Geiger, S. (2015). Does facebook have civil servants? On governmentality and computational social
science. In Workshop on Ethics for Studying Sociotechnical Systems in a Big Data World. Vancouver,
British Columbia, Canada.
In this sense, researchers can be said to
form a core part of the elite civil service
and bureaucratic corps of our era
Most Policy
& Platform
Experiments
Arnstein, Sherry R. 1969. “A Ladder of Citizen Participation.” Journal of the American Institute of
Planners 35 (4): 216–24.
MacKinnon, R. (2012). Consent of the networked: The worldwide struggle for Internet freedom.
Basic Books
Companies act as the new sovereigns of
cyberspace… most companies’ failure to take
responsibility for their power over citizens’
political lives, and their lack of
accountability in the exercise of that
power, corrodes the Internet’s democratic
potential
civilservant.io
Laws Platform
Policies
Community
Policies
Logo images via Wikipedia
conference hosts
moderators
community leaders
administrators
moderators
moderators
admins
enforcement united
52k subreddit
communities
200m monthly
visitors
148k moderator
rolesJuly 2015
Most Platforms
& Users
Online
Communities
Arnstein, Sherry R. 1969. “A Ladder of Citizen Participation.” Journal of the American Institute of
Planners 35 (4): 216–24.
13.5 million subscribers1,200+ moderator roles
989 newcomers/day77 discussions per day
0 1250 2500 3750 5000
Remove Post
Approve Post
Remove Comment
Approve Comment
Ban User
Unban User
Revise Wiki
Recategorize Post
Automated Systems Humans
8,298 Moderation Actions, May 23 - 29, 2016
Does making participants aware of rules
by posting them increase norm-
compliance of first-time commenters?
• Design Experiments
• Coordinate Policy
Interventions
• Monitor Outcomes
• Estimate Experimental Results
Civil ServantCommunity-Led Field Experiments in
Community Governance Online
Civil ServantCommunity-Led Field Experiments in
Community Governance Online
x Only routine interventions
x No high risk communities
(markets, mental health)
x No groups that organize
to harm others
Civil ServantCommunity-Led Field Experiments in
Community Governance Online
Open Archive of
Moderation Studies
Community
Experiments
Civil ServantCommunity-Led Field Experiments in
Community Governance Online
Community
Suggests
Study
Refine
Study
Designs
Deploy Experiment
With Community
Interpret
Results
Debrief
Participants
Debate Policy
Decisions
Publish &
Replicate
Process for Community Experiments
CivilServant.io
New Sticky Comment
Ask-Me-Anything Sticky Comment
Matias, J. N. (2016) Posting Rules in Online Discussions Prevents Problems & Increases
Participation. CivilServant
“Sticking” a Rule Comment to Threads
Increased a Newcomer’s Probability of
Posting a First Comment Within the Rules
Posting the rules increases the incidence
rate of newcomer comments by 38.1% on
average.
If the community adopts sticky comments,
they could prevent 1,838 people a month
from engaging in unacceptable behavior.
They would also gain 9,631 new
commenters per month, on average.
Matias, J. N. (2016) Posting Rules in Online Discussions Prevents Problems & Increases
Participation. CivilServant
13.7 million subscribers70+ moderator roles
23 tabloid discussions per day
/r/worldnews
[Misleading Title] Bavaria passes new law to
make migrants respect ‘dominant’ local
culture
[Misleading Title | Not Appropriate Subreddit]
Spanish Terror Attack: Gunman enters
supermarket, shouts Allahu Akbar
[Editorialized Title] A last kiss for mama:
Jihadi parents bid young daughters
goodbye… before one walks into a
Damascus police station and is blown up
by remote detonator
Matias, J. N. (2016) Posting Rules in Online Discussions Prevents Problems & Increases
Participation. CivilServant
Unreliable News
Submitted
Suggest Fact-
Checking
Algorithms
Notice
Algorithms
Promote
Unreliable
News?
People
Fact-Check
Articles
Can we increase the rate that commenters
question unreliable news without
making unreliable news trend on social
media algorithms?
Pre
dic
ted
In
cid
en
ce o
f C
om
men
ts W
ith
Lin
ks
Encouraging Fact-Checking Causes Unreliable News
To Receive 2x More Comments with Links on Average Tabloid links in r/worldnews receive a 2.01 to 2.03x increase in the number of comments including
links to further evidence when moderators use sticky comments to encourage fact-checking.
Source: J. Nathan Matias, MIT Media Lab. Experiment by r/worldnews, 11/27/2016 – 1/20/2017
n = 840 posts from sites that moderators consider tabloids, 2.4% of submissions on average.
This negative binomial model predicts incidence rates; the effect is larger for more popular posts.
Fact-checking: p = 0.0083. Fact-checking + Voting: p = 0.0073 *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05
For full details on the findings, which were not yet peer reviewed by Jan 2017, see civilservant.io
1.44**
0.71
1.46**
No Action
Taken
Suggest Fact-
Checking
Suggest Fact-
Checking & Voting
Encouraging Fact-Checking Causes Unreliable News
To Be Promoted Less by reddit’s Algorithms on AverageTabloid links in r/worldnews receive a 2.04x reduction in the scores that shape reddit’s rankings
when moderators encouraged fact-checking, but not when they also suggested voting
Source: J. Nathan Matias, MIT Media Lab. Experiment by r/worldnews, 12/07/2016 – 1/20/2017
n = 696 posts from sites that moderators consider tabloids, 2.4% of submissions on average.
The reddit algorithms use the “score” to determine the ranking of a link. On average, between
links of similar age, the submission with a higher score will be ranked more highly.
This negative binomial model predicts incidence rates; the effect is larger for more popular posts.
Fact-checking intervention p = 0.000562. Voting p = 0.198 *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05
For full details on the findings, which were not yet peer reviewed by Jan 2017, see civilservant.io
50.56***
103.07
134.37
No Action
Taken
Suggest Fact-
Checking
Suggest Fact-
Checking & Voting
Pre
dic
ted
Sco
re I
ncid
en
ce R
ate
Aft
er
24 h
rs
Community Discussion
Community Discussion
Policy Discussion:
What if lack of conflict & increased participation is bad?
Can this cause censorship if taken to an extreme?
How generalizable is this to other subs?
Intervention Design:
I imagine the wording is extremely important.
Community Discussion
Personal Stories of Outliers:
I don't think I've ever read any subreddit's rules ever.
Experiment Design & Implications:
I bet that the rules comment increases participation
because it makes it say “(1 comment)” on the forum
index so people click the link to read the comment
Community Discussion
Research Ethics:
Did you get the informed consent?
[IRBs] have no authority, legal or ethical, to make
decisions about consent.
you're objecting to this study as an excuse to critique
the moderators
Open Archive of
Moderation Studies
Community
Experiments
CivilServantCommunity-Led Field Experiments in
Community Governance Online
Data Sampled July 2015
15,300
1,795Eligible Communities
3,000 + comments/month
Moderator Roles
How Far Might Community Experiments
Scale on the reddit Platform?
RESEARCH is
DESIGN
& we can
REDESIGN our
METHODS to follow
DEMOCRATIC VALUES
civilservant.io
Ethan ZuckermanAssociate Professor of the Practice
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Elizabeth Levy PaluckAssociate Professor, Department of Psychology
Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Tarleton GillespiePrincipal Researcher
Microsoft Research
Merry MouM.Eng Student
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Elinor OstromAnne Oakley Donna Haraway
Catherine Squires Ellen Swallow Richards
Authoritarian & Democratic
Data Science in an
Experimenting SocietyMIT CMS/W, Feb 16, 2017
@natematias
natematias.com
civic.mit.edu/users/natematias
J. Nathan Matias