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TRANSCRIPT
Crown Conference Centre
July 31 2012
Peter Wilson Chairman – Pulse Australia Limited
Director Northern States – Australia Milling Group
Australian Grain Industry Conference
“Pulses - Getting The Matrix Right."
Australian pulse industry snapshot
Where have we come from?
Where are we now?
Where do we need to be?
Discussion
Where have we come from?
Poor agronomy and harvest outcomes
Ad Hoc but dedicated breeding and commercialisation strategies
Regional and state based standards
Volatile and unstructured markets – high risk
Few players
Industry good style functionality
Discussion
Where are we now?
Support the Minister’s view for the need to support and fund much better Pre – Competitive/industry good functions which are critical to success
National and International Industry structure
Market access, contract execution, supply chain support and quality standards
Focused breeding and commercialisation strategies
Integrated agronomy contact
Structured markets developing
Attracting significant public investment.
Discussion
Relative Australian Pulse Area,
Production and Value
$0.30
$0.57
$0.39
$0.61
$0.40
$0.82
$0.62
$0.69
$0.84 $0.81
$1.11
$-
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AREA PROD BLN $ Expon. (BLN $)
ABS/ABARE/Pulse Australia Limited
Desi/Yellow Pea Spread
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Desi/Yellow Pea Spread
Whole Yellow Peas over CBOT Wheat
($100)
($50)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Yellow Pea/CBOT Wheat Spread
Industry Market Drivers
Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply.
Economic growth in India remains strong but demand still fluid.
Indian Government just can’t keep their hands off the levers!
Moisture deficits growing in Western/North West India and Pakistan.
Pulse stocks manageable, but reducing.
Light environmental footprint – climate change.
The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.
Corn, soy and wheat…expanding moisture deficits.
Capital markets in disarray
Mumbai Pulse Prices USD
INR
35.0
0IN
R 4
0.0
0IN
R 4
5.0
0IN
R 5
0.0
0IN
R 5
5.0
0
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
Aust Desi Chickpeas Cdn Yellow Peas Lemon ToorCdn Red Lentils Wheat (CBOT Dec) USD/INR
Indian Pulse Production, Consumption
and Gap
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11f
2011-12f
2012-13f
2013-14f
2014-15f
MT
Production Consumption Gap
Where do we need to be?
Measurable targets
We need to pick winners – narrow the focus
Volume and products for the deep HC and isolate markets
Desi and Kabuli Chickpeas (ISC, MENA)
Yellow Peas (Kaspa type) (ISC, MENA, East Asia)
Faba and Broad Beans (MENA, East Asia)
Red Lentils (ISC, MENA)
Yield focus on those products for protein/starch/isolates complex
Angustifolius Lupins (Asia)
Sustainable focus on smaller but high value crops.
Mung Beans (Asia, EU, ISC, MENA)
Pigeon Peas (ISC)
Albus Lupins (MENA)
Guar (ISC and Industrial demand)
Discussion
Pulse Australia and the industry must reduce risks/costs in the supply chain Systems based thinking - helping to lighten the load
R&D collaboration with AOF and GRDC
Support for integrated market based technology and applied science delivery
Integrated Risk management focus
Markets
Production
Logistics
Discussion