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Crown Conference Centre July 31 2012 Peter Wilson Chairman – Pulse Australia Limited Director Northern States – Australia Milling Group Australian Grain Industry Conference “Pulses - Getting The Matrix Right."

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Page 1: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Crown Conference Centre

July 31 2012

Peter Wilson Chairman – Pulse Australia Limited

Director Northern States – Australia Milling Group

Australian Grain Industry Conference

“Pulses - Getting The Matrix Right."

Page 2: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Australian pulse industry snapshot

Where have we come from?

Where are we now?

Where do we need to be?

Discussion

Page 3: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Where have we come from?

Poor agronomy and harvest outcomes

Ad Hoc but dedicated breeding and commercialisation strategies

Regional and state based standards

Volatile and unstructured markets – high risk

Few players

Industry good style functionality

Discussion

Page 4: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Where are we now?

Support the Minister’s view for the need to support and fund much better Pre – Competitive/industry good functions which are critical to success

National and International Industry structure

Market access, contract execution, supply chain support and quality standards

Focused breeding and commercialisation strategies

Integrated agronomy contact

Structured markets developing

Attracting significant public investment.

Discussion

Page 5: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Relative Australian Pulse Area,

Production and Value

$0.30

$0.57

$0.39

$0.61

$0.40

$0.82

$0.62

$0.69

$0.84 $0.81

$1.11

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

AREA PROD BLN $ Expon. (BLN $)

ABS/ABARE/Pulse Australia Limited

Page 6: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Desi/Yellow Pea Spread

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

Desi/Yellow Pea Spread

Page 7: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Whole Yellow Peas over CBOT Wheat

($100)

($50)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

Yellow Pea/CBOT Wheat Spread

Page 8: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Industry Market Drivers

Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply.

Economic growth in India remains strong but demand still fluid.

Indian Government just can’t keep their hands off the levers!

Moisture deficits growing in Western/North West India and Pakistan.

Pulse stocks manageable, but reducing.

Light environmental footprint – climate change.

The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.

Corn, soy and wheat…expanding moisture deficits.

Capital markets in disarray

Page 9: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic
Page 10: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Mumbai Pulse Prices USD

INR

35.0

0IN

R 4

0.0

0IN

R 4

5.0

0IN

R 5

0.0

0IN

R 5

5.0

0

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

Aust Desi Chickpeas Cdn Yellow Peas Lemon ToorCdn Red Lentils Wheat (CBOT Dec) USD/INR

Page 11: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Indian Pulse Production, Consumption

and Gap

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11f

2011-12f

2012-13f

2013-14f

2014-15f

MT

Production Consumption Gap

Page 12: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Where do we need to be?

Measurable targets

We need to pick winners – narrow the focus

Volume and products for the deep HC and isolate markets

Desi and Kabuli Chickpeas (ISC, MENA)

Yellow Peas (Kaspa type) (ISC, MENA, East Asia)

Faba and Broad Beans (MENA, East Asia)

Red Lentils (ISC, MENA)

Yield focus on those products for protein/starch/isolates complex

Angustifolius Lupins (Asia)

Sustainable focus on smaller but high value crops.

Mung Beans (Asia, EU, ISC, MENA)

Pigeon Peas (ISC)

Albus Lupins (MENA)

Guar (ISC and Industrial demand)

Discussion

Page 13: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic

Pulse Australia and the industry must reduce risks/costs in the supply chain Systems based thinking - helping to lighten the load

R&D collaboration with AOF and GRDC

Support for integrated market based technology and applied science delivery

Integrated Risk management focus

Markets

Production

Logistics

Discussion

Page 14: Australian Grain Industry Conferenceausgrainsconf.com/sites/default/files/file/2012/... · 2012-08-05 · Industry Market Drivers Yellow Pulse demand is ahead of supply. Economic