2014 Election Updates & Insights

Aug 8, 2014 – Charlotte Chamber

Matt BalesResearch Directormbales@ncfef.org

(919) 996-9543

Joe StewartExecutive Directorjstewart@ncfef.org

(919) 614-0520

Joe Stewart, Executive Director

The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization exclusively focused on providing innovative educational programs to foster informed civic involvement and a better understanding of how voters perceive key public policy issues that impact our state’s economic vitality.

NCFEF does not lobby, or participate in any way with political campaigns.

NC FreeEnterprise Foundation

North Carolina is growing … and will continue to grow

Welcome to the City of Charlie

Meck Co NC2013 Pop (est) 990,977 9,848,060

Pop 2010 – 2013 7.80% 3.30%2010 Pop 919,628 9,535,483

<5 YO 7.10% 6.20%<18 YO 24.80% 23.20%

>65 9.70% 14.30%Female 51.80% 51.30%White 59.70% 71.70%Black 32.10% 22.00%

American Indian 0.80% 1.60%Asian 5.20% 2.60%

Pac Island 0.10% 0.10%2+ races 2.20% 2.00%Hispanic 12.60% 8.90%

Meck Co NCForeign born 13.90% 7.50%

Non-English @ home 18.20% 10.80%

High School + 88.80% 84.50%Bachelor + 40.30% 26.80%

Work travel time 24.8 23.5Homeownership 60.80% 67.10%

Multi-unit 30.90% 17.10%Home value $186,100 $153,600 Per capita

income $32,631 $25,285

Household income $55,961 $46,450

<Poverty 14.50% 16.80%

Mecklenburg County by the (Census) numbers

Mecklenburg County by the (political) numbers

• 668,156 NC Registered Voters (10.2% of NC)

• 3 Congressional Districts (23% of NC delegation)

• 5 State Senate Districts & 12 State House Districts

• Growth since 2010 Census = +70,000 State House District = 79,000 State Senate District = 190,000 Congressional District = 733,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2,755,1032,878,217

2,771,7622,756,290

2,002,1402,057,356

1,962,5592,004,192

24,24119,748

9,58024,353

1,762,4411,716,425

1,470,6111,766,632

2008: 6,277,007 2014: 6,543,925 2012: 6,671,746

2010: 6,214,512

+/-

266,918

370,439

20,514

-1,194

-115,299July 2014

NC Voter Registration – Partisan Affiliation

42.1%

30.6%

0.4%

27.0%

2008 2010 2012 20140

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

286,578 276,454 312,039 304,729

184,571 172,084181,592 173,079

354966

2129 2659

156,494155,730

184,493 187,689

+/-

40,159

31,195

2,305

-11,492

18,151July 2014

Mecklenburg Co. Voter Registration – Partisan Affiliation

45.6%

25.9%

0.4%

28.1%

2008: 628,097

2014: 668,156 2012: 680,353

2010: 605,334

Meck Co

+/-

40,159

31,195

2,305

-11,492

18,1512008 - July 2014

Mecklenburg Co. versus NC Voter Registration

45.6%

25.9%

0.4%

28.1%

NC

+/-

266,918

370,439

20,514

-1,194

-115,2992008 - July 2014

42.1%

30.6%

0.4%

27.0%

Mecklenburg County

2012

Obama 60.8%

Romney 38.3%

2000

Gore 48.2%

Bush 51.0%

1988

Dukakis 40.2%

Bush 59.4%

MECKLENBURG WAKE

GUILFORD FORSYTH DURHAM

CUMBERLAND BUNCOMBE

NEW HANOVER UNION

GASTON CABARRUS

PITT IREDELL

JOHNSTON ORANGE

DAVIDSON CATAWBA ONSLOW

ALAMANCE ROWAN

DEM REP LIB UNA W B AI O H TOTAL

TOP 20 1,655,127 1,193,477 16,506 1,128,204 2,737,460 951,196 11,413 293,245 91,956 3,993,314

TOP 20 AVG 41.4% 29.9% 0.4% 28.3% 68.6% 23.8% 0.3% 7.3% 2.3%

STATE AVG 42.1% 30.6% 0.4% 27.0% 70.9% 22.4% 0.8% 5.8% 1.9%

TOP 20 % OF TOTAL

60.0% 59.5% 67.8% 63.9% 58.9% 64.7% 21.3% 76.7% 75.3% 61.0%

NC Voter Registration – Top 20 Counties

RESEARCH TRIANGLE - 27 point swing08: D +21% 04: R +6%Obama v. Kerry = +130,339

Obama 2012: +18%

PIEDMONT TRIAD - 15 point swing 08: D +1% 04: R +14% Obama v. Kerry = +81,319

Obama 2012: +2%

In NC, Obama (2008) won 334,876 more votes than Kerry (2004) in core Metros

CHARLOTTE METRO - 18 point swing08: D +7% 04: R +11%

Obama v. Kerry = +123,218

Obama 2012: +4%

Political impact of population density

2013 NCFEF Leg Business Ratings

Conventional Voter Behavior (CVB)

NC CVB = 0

Greater Diversity

Less Native

Suburban Swingers

2014 US Congress CVB Map

2014 NC Senate CVB Map

2014 NC House CVB Map

http://ncfef.org/research-analysis/ncfef-research-analysis/cvb-map/

The growing partisan divide

The “median,” or

typical, Republican is now more conservative than 94% of Democrats, compared with 70%

twenty years ago.

And the median

Democrat is more liberal than 92% of

Republicans, up from 64%.

The share of Americans who express consistently conservative or consistently

liberal opinions has doubled over the past two decades, from 10% to 21%.

The growing partisan divide

Demographic features to watch

2012 Exit Polls in NC

<1020%

10+29%

NC51%

Under

5 y

ears

5 to

9 ye

ars

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 to

69

year

s

70 to

74

year

s

75 to

79

year

s

80 to

84

year

s

85 y

ears

and

ove

r0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Meck Co.NC

GEN XGEN Y

2010 Census

Age CohortsMeck Co

Demographic features to watch

Millennial voters

But will younger voters vote?

Voter turnout within College Towns

COUNTY 2008P 33% 2008G 70% 2010P 14% 2010G 44% 2012P 20% 2012G 68%

Buncombe 35.9% 108.9% 70.8% 101.2% 12.2% 86.8% 45.6% 103.6% 37.6% 188.1% 68.6% 100.9%

Cumberland 33.4% 101.2% 61.8% 88.3% 12.0% 85.4% 35.7% 81.1% 25.3% 126.7% 59.9% 88.0%

Durham 51.3% 155.4% 77.0% 109.9% 13.1% 93.4% 49.1% 111.5% 39.7% 198.5% 69.3% 102.0%

Forsyth 40.4% 122.4% 75.6% 108.0% 12.1% 86.1% 42.6% 96.7% 34.7% 173.3% 71.3% 104.8%

Guilford 39.6% 120.1% 68.7% 98.1% 10.7% 76.6% 40.1% 91.1% 35.1% 175.5% 70.6% 103.8%

Jackson 34.8% 105.4% 64.6% 92.3% 20.1% 143.7% 43.5% 99.0% 35.7% 178.4% 59.9% 88.0%

Mecklenburg 34.3% 103.9% 66.2% 94.5% 7.3% 52.3% 38.0% 86.3% 28.5% 142.6% 66.8% 98.2%

New Hanover 34.5% 104.6% 70.1% 100.1% 18.1% 129.6% 44.1% 100.3% 29.8% 148.9% 65.6% 96.5%

Orange 48.3% 146.2% 71.3% 101.8% 15.0% 107.1% 45.0% 102.3% 43.8% 219.2% 68.7% 101.1%

Pasquotank 31.6% 95.9% 64.7% 92.4% 19.1% 136.6% 34.9% 79.3% 19.8% 99.2% 61.2% 90.0%

Pitt 35.0% 106.0% 71.2% 101.8% 16.4% 117.4% 40.2% 91.3% 29.7% 148.7% 68.1% 100.2%

Robeson 39.7% 120.2% 60.3% 86.1% 26.7% 190.4% 33.8% 76.8% 36.0% 180.1% 57.6% 84.7%

Wake 39.2% 118.9% 74.9% 107.0% 10.9% 77.8% 47.8% 108.5% 40.6% 202.9% 74.7% 109.8%

Watauga 30.1% 91.2% 66.0% 94.3% 13.1% 93.7% 41.2% 93.5% 37.2% 185.9% 62.2% 91.4%

AVG 37.7% 114.3% 68.8% 98.3% 14.8% 105.5% 41.5% 94.4% 33.8% 169.1% 66.0% 97.1%

Continued gains in political influence by urban regions of North Carolina – public policy debate shifts accordingly.

While partisan politics (always) matters, who the candidate is will matter with younger/more diverse voter cohort.

Voters in densely populated areas have different attitudes about role of government – and that influences voting.

What does it mean for North Carolina to have an urban (new economy) business community?

What’s the political and economic future of rural North Carolina?

Key points

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Questions?

Matt BalesResearch Directormbales@ncfef.org

(919) 996-9543

Joe StewartExecutive Directorjstewart@ncfef.org

(919) 614-0520