APPLIED TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE 349 Berkshire Drive, Riva, MD 21140 410-956-8805 / 888-501-2100 Fax: 410-956-5785

www.ATIcourses.com

Reducing Space Launch Cost Applying Better, Faster & Cheaper to Launch Vehicle Missions

SUMMARY This seminar is the only all-inclusive source of information on the methods for understanding, managing and designing cost-driven launch vehicle systems. The instruction provides a practical introduction to economy-driven space transportation. Emphasis is on using cost models and tools to determine optimum economic space mission solutions. The course gives balanced coverage on the economic, technical and political motivation behind current and future space transportation initatives. Insight into how alternative infrastructures have evolved under different conditions is illustrated by comparing Western with former Soviet strategies and methods. Rival concepts for more economical launch vehicle systems are carefully examined for the reality of their claims. Streamlined methodlogies and strategies are discussed. The impacts of safety, reliability and dependability on mission economy are examined. INSTRUCTOR Edward L. Keith, is a multi-discipline Launch Vehicle System Engineer, specializing in integration of launch vehicle technology, design, modeling and business strategies. He is an independent consultant, writer and teacher of rocket system technology. He is experienced in launch vehicle operations, design, testing, business analysis, risk reduction, modeling, safety and reliability. Mr. Keith's experience extends to both reusable and expendable launch vehicles, as well as to both solid and liquid rocket systems. Mr. Keith has designed complete rocket engines, rocket vehicles, small propulsion systems, and composite propellant tank systems, especially designed for low cost, as a propulsion and launch vehicle engineer. His travels have taken him to Russia, China, Australia and other launch operations centers throughout the world. Mr. Keith has worked the Space Launch Initiative and the Liquid Fly-Back Booster programs for Boeing, originated the Scorpius Program for Microcosm, worked on the Brilliant Eyes and the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor Programs for Rockwell and worked on the Aerojet Launch Detection Satellite program. He also has 13-years of government experience including five years working launch operations at Vandenberg AFB. Mr. Keith has written 18 technical papers on various aspects of low cost space transportation over the last decade.

COURSE OUTLINE 1. The Problems and How We Got Here. What if anything is wrong

with the current system? What is the interaction of reliability, availability, and safety on mission economy.

2. What Has Been Done To Solve the Problem and can the Problem be Solved? Many options such as ALS, NLS, Spacelifter, and NASP have been explored, but none have borne fruit. How can we avoid making costly mistakes in the future? Russian methods will be examined.

3. Why Are Costs So High? What is it about space transportation operations that make them so expensive? The concept of learning curve, order quantity, economics of scale and special handling will be addressed.

4. Cost Model Analysis. The uses and abuses of cost models. The TRANSCOST model will be examined for lessons in economic development and fabrication.

5. Using Tools to Determine the Outcome. Strategies, based on Cost Models, for minimum cost design will continue. Strategies to minimize the life cycle costs will be examined.

6. Existing Launch Vehicles and Next-Generation Alternatives. The technology and economically of the existing fleet of domestic and foreign launch vehicles will be discussed. The economic basis for the next-generation space transportation vehicles will be examined.

7. Expendable and Reusable Launch Vehicle Economics. Key economic and technical drivers of expendable and reusable launch vehicles are identified. Strategies for economic implementation are examined.

8. The Significance of Performance. What is the significance of engine performance, propellant density and number of stages?

9. The Role of Single Stage to Orbit. What technology is needed for an SSTO? What do cost models say about SSTO concepts. Are they practical, economical and technically?

10. Launch Site Operational Economics. What economics are available to make launch operations less expensive.

11. Safety and Reliability Issues. Can launch vehicles be made safer, more reliable and be more economic at the same time?

12. The Space Transportation Market. How does the cost of space transportation affect overall space mission technology, operations and economics? Evidence of inelastic demand will be provided.

13. The Effects of the Procurement System. The implications of government procurement in an inelastic market are examined. The rewards and punishment stimulus will be explored.

14. Private Investment, Privatization, and Low-Cost Space Transportation. The issue of space transportation investment will be covered. How will business be done differently if private space transportation is to succeed?

www.ATIcourses.com

Boost Your Skills with On-Site Courses Tailored to Your Needs The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly competitive marketplace. Since 1984, ATI has earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and has presented on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best. For a Free On-Site Quote Visit Us At: http://www.ATIcourses.com/free_onsite_quote.asp For Our Current Public Course Schedule Go To: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm

Sample-1Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Reducing Space Launch Costs Class Sampler

This is the most advanced class available concerning the issues of reducing space launch costs. The same science-based principals are applied to both expendable and reusable systems. Strategies applicable to any concept that will reduce both Development and Operational costs are explained. Modeling as Trade Study tools are emphasized.

ATI© 2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-2Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Concept of Algorithm Maturity Level• Algorithm Maturity Level (AML) is a metric

– AML-1 Place holding conjecture, no valid algorithm known– AML-2 Conjecture, new algorithm with limited

scientific basis– ACL-3 Conjecture, unproven algorithm with reasonable

Scientific Hypothesis– ACL-4 Algorithm with Scientific hypothesis and some

supporting evidence– ACL-5 Algorithm with scientific principal and

significant supporting evidence– ACL-6 Algorithm Published, but not generally known

or used– ACL-7 Widely used, but lacks rigorous peer review– ACL-8 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted with

some controversy– ACL-9 Algorithm Peer reviewed and accepted

throughout the community

© 2003, Edward L. KeithATI

Sample-3Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Concept of a Search Model

IntegratedModels

Outcome Better?SaveBestCase

Yes

Next n

AllPossibleChoices,

1 to n

End

ATI© 2003, Edward L. Keith

Sample-4Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Cost Models Look Like and Equation• dV=Isp * g * ln(M/m)• An Equation• Exact Answer• Derived from Physics• Permanent• Scientific (Mathematics)

• C = A (M)x

• A Model• Ballpark (+/- 25%)• Derived from History• Temporary• Scientific (Economic)

Cost Models look like equations, but they are not. CostModels are the most critical element to be understood

in the search for more economical Space Transportationchoices and decisions.

• A cost model is based on historic observations reduced to algorithms– Based on Past Successful Experience

• Useful as planning tool

ATI© 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-5Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Doing Business Differently

• What about all the hundreds of ways of doing business that should lower the cost estimation relationship coefficient and exponent?

C = A M(x)

• The primary objective of doing business differently is to reduce the value of the coefficient A– Business strategies that reduce the value of A by a

factor of ten or even two would make an enormous difference in costs

Major target ignoredby most engineers.

(large delta possible)

Engineers try tocontrol this factor.

(small delta possible)

Worth a look?

© 1995-2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-6Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Reducto Ad Absurdum – Your Opinion• Discuss the Microcosm Strategy

– Seven identical rocket pods, each with seven identical engines, organized into three stages

• 49 engines in all– Each engine so “cheap” that

“a pound of hamburger costs more than a pound of thrust”

• Discuss the Conastoga Strategy– Seven Castor-4 solid rocket motors

plus a Star-48 fourth stage• Only $73-million to develop

• Were the two strategies sound?• Were they based on the same principal

© 2003, Edward L. Keith

Sample-7Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Operational Cost Elements• Direct Operational Costs

• Pre-launch Ground Operations Cost • Propellant Costs• Flight and Mission Operations• Transport and Recovery Costs (if any) [like SRB]• Fees and Insurance

• Refurbishment and Spares• Vehicle • Engines

• Indirect Operational Costs• System Management & Administration (Shared)• Launch Site Support and Maintenance• Technical Assistance and Network Support

Each of the above elements will be examined more Closely

* Handbook of Cost Engineering (7.0)

ATI© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-8Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Delta-II Analysis• The Delta-II is probably the most cost-effective

American launch vehicle• Number of flights (302 as of 12/21/03 [inc Delta-III])

– Effects of major modification and “improvements”• Degree of modularity

– Up to nine SRMs in stage one (50% of impulse)• Production rate up to 6 / month• 1,600 Older Castor IVB SRMs produced

• Degree of simplification – Relatively High– Simple solid rocket motors– Single engine 1950s technology core stage one– Pressure-fed 1950s technology stage two– Unguided SRM Stage three (option)

© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-9Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Pre Launch Operations Cost Model• C = 8 * Mo

0.67 * L-0.9 * N 0.7 * fv * fc * f4 [in man-years]– Where

• Mo is gross mass of the vehicle• N is the number of stages• L = Launches per Annum• fv = Launch Vehicle Type

– For Multistage ELV using LOX/LH2 fv = 1.0– For Multistage ELV using Other Liquid fv = 0.8– For Multistage ELV using Solid Motors fv = 0.3– For Automated RLV SSTO fv = 0.7– Shuttle-Like Crewed RLV fv = 1.8

• fc = Assembly and Integration Mode– For Vertical Assy & CO on-pad fc = 1.0 – For Vertical Assy & CO, transport to pad fc = 0.7– For Horizontal Assy & CO, pad erection fc = 0.5

• f4 = Learning CurveATI© 2002, Edward L. Keith

Sample-10Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Space Transportation is a Virtual Market

• There is no real space transportation market– The market is for Space Missions– No one buys a ride to space without two other essential

ingredients.• Payload and Operations

• Since launch vehicles are part of the overall space mission market, there must be a interdependent economic relationship.– You cannot look at the system of a space mission as

independent elements• The launch, spacecraft and ground operations are

part of the whole and indivisible

There is no market for empty dog food cans. When you want a case of dog food, you get a carton, cansand the dog food itself. The market is for dog food.

© 2002-2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-11Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Commercialization of Launch Vehicles

• The first launch vehicle generations were designed and developed under government contracts by aerospace companies, and then operated by same aerospace contractors under Government Agencies management– The government paid contractors to develop launch

vehicles, which the same contractor then operated as a profitable business

• Why should the government take all the risks and pay a company to enter a non-risky profitable business?

All risk of failed project and all sunk costs were borneby the government. All profit of developing a successfulor a failed project went to the contractor. All profit from

operating a successful project also went to the contractor

© 2004, Edward L. Keith

Sample-12Reducing Launch Cost Sampler

Reducing RLV Theory to Science• State the Problem : The cost of Space Transportation is

excessively high because the expendable launch vehicles are thrown away after only one use

• Research the Problem : There is an alternative to the ELV systems in use since 1957, Reusable Launch Vehicles

• Form a Hypothesis : RLV systems will be more cost effective because the manufacturing cost of each vehicle can be spread over many missions

• Test the Hypothesis : According to the results of the Space Shuttle operations, and of detailed RLV modeling, the hypothesis is not supported at this time

• Draw a Conclusion From the Data : The reusable Space Shuttle did not achieve the intended low cost operations. In point of fact, Space Shuttle operations were far more costly than that of the ELV systems it intended to replace. Further, detailed modeling suggests the high cost of RLV development is not justified at this time, and operational savings are less than claimed by proponents

© 2004, Edward L. Keith

Boost Your Skillswith On-Site CoursesTailored to Your NeedsThe Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical

professionals. Our courses keep you current in the state-of-the-art technology that isessential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly competitivemarketplace. For 20 years, we have earned the trust of training departments nationwide,and have presented on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for alarge number of contractors. Our training increases effectiveness and productivity. Learnfrom the proven best.

ATI’s on-site courses offer these cost-effective advantages:

• You design, control, and schedule the course.

• Since the program involves only your personnel, confidentiality is maintained. You canfreely discuss company issues and programs. Classified programs can also be arranged.

• Your employees may attend all or only the most relevant part of the course.

• Our instructors are the best in the business, averaging 25 to 35 years of practical, real-world experience. Carefully selected for both technical expertise and teaching ability, theyprovide information that is practical and ready to use immediately.

• Our on-site programs can save your facility 30% to 50%, plus additional savings byeliminating employee travel time and expenses.

• The ATI Satisfaction Guarantee: You must be completely satisfied with our program.

We suggest you look at ATI course descriptions in this catalog and on the ATI website.Visit and bookmark ATI’s website at http://www.ATIcourses.com for descriptions of allof our courses in these areas:

• Communications & Computer Programming

• Radar/EW/Combat Systems

• Signal Processing & Information Technology

• Sonar & Acoustic Engineering

• Spacecraft & Satellite Engineering

I suggest that you read through these course descriptions and then call me personally, JimJenkins, at (410) 531-6034, and I’ll explain what we can do for you, what it will cost, and whatyou can expect in results and future capabilities.

Our training helps you and your organizationremain competitive in this changing world.

Register online at www.aticourses.com or call ATI at 888.501.2100 or 410.531.6034