Henry OHenry O’’CleryCleryExecutive DirectorExecutive DirectorFuture Climate AustraliaFuture Climate Australia

Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward

Automotive Training Australia 2007 Conference

Future Climate AustraliaFuture Climate Australia

Reducing Emissions at Source Reducing Emissions at Source Promoting fuel efficient technologies & low carbon fuelsPromoting fuel efficient technologies & low carbon fuels

Providing Offset ServicesProviding Offset ServicesProviding a native biodiversity forest program and Verified EmisProviding a native biodiversity forest program and Verified Emission sion Reduction Units (VERs) to reduce carbon concentrations in the atReduction Units (VERs) to reduce carbon concentrations in the atmospheremosphere

Calculator at Calculator at www.futureclimate.com.auwww.futureclimate.com.au

Not-for-Profit Specialists in Greenhouse Impacts of

Transport & Food Chain

Climate ChangeClimate Change

oo Climate Change is happening nowClimate Change is happening now

oo Is largely human induced due to burning fossil fuelsIs largely human induced due to burning fossil fuels

oo Impacts are going to be fundamental and dramaticImpacts are going to be fundamental and dramatic

oo For current businesses and for future generations.For current businesses and for future generations.

Consequences for AustraliaConsequences for AustraliaChange will be progressive:Change will be progressive:

Sea level rise & more powerful storm surgesSea level rise & more powerful storm surges

Increased Drought & BushfireIncreased Drought & Bushfire

Ecology moving SouthEcology moving South

More severe & more numerous weather eventsMore severe & more numerous weather events

Reduction in soil moisture & stream flowsReduction in soil moisture & stream flows

Water becoming a critical commodityWater becoming a critical commodity

Energy becoming progressively more expensiveEnergy becoming progressively more expensive

Every resource & process has a carbon footprint!Every resource & process has a carbon footprint!

ItIt’’s all about Risk! s all about Risk!

We consider risk every time we take out insurance on our life, We consider risk every time we take out insurance on our life, house or car, or when we travel on a plane.house or car, or when we travel on a plane.

Scientists rank climate change as very high risk (95% Scientists rank climate change as very high risk (95% probability), with great penalty attached to delay.probability), with great penalty attached to delay.

Precautionary principle says that we should cover ourselvesPrecautionary principle says that we should cover ourselves

If we take immediate action we can reduce the impacts, and If we take immediate action we can reduce the impacts, and also set ourselves on course to thrive in a future low carbon also set ourselves on course to thrive in a future low carbon world.world.

Australia will soon be introducing a Carbon Trading regimen thatAustralia will soon be introducing a Carbon Trading regimen that will impact on how we do business.will impact on how we do business.

What are the Threats and Opportunities facing us? What are the Threats and Opportunities facing us?

How do we move from here to where we need to be?How do we move from here to where we need to be?

The Automobile The Automobile -- Three BasicsThree BasicsEnergy AvailableEnergy Available•• Petrol/diesel/LPG/CNG/Hydrogen/Petrol/diesel/LPG/CNG/Hydrogen/SynfuelSynfuel/Biofuel/Biofuel•• Battery/Battery/SupercapicatorSupercapicator•• Refuel Refuel –– Liquid/Gas/ElectricityLiquid/Gas/Electricity

Powertrain efficiencyPowertrain efficiency•• Loses 87% between tank & wheelsLoses 87% between tank & wheels•• Uses 17% of fuel standing still (urban cycle)Uses 17% of fuel standing still (urban cycle)

WeightWeight•• Do we need 1.8 to 2.5 tonnes to carry 80kg?Do we need 1.8 to 2.5 tonnes to carry 80kg?

Energy Usage

0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Available Available at Wheels Used to move 80kg

Losses in Drivetrain

Vehicle Weight13%

Energy in fuel

0.6%

LOSSES DUE TO:

• Drivetrain inefficiency

• Weight

• Rolling Resistance

• Aerodynamics

• Cross Section

• In urban cycle up to 17% fuel used when stationary

There is Scope for ImprovementThere is Scope for Improvement

International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency•• ~870 million cars on the roads worldwide~870 million cars on the roads worldwide

•• China 20 cars per 1,000; by 2030 will be 140 by: From 40 millionChina 20 cars per 1,000; by 2030 will be 140 by: From 40 million cars now to 207 millioncars now to 207 million

•• Price of oil will skyrocket as supply cannot meet projected Price of oil will skyrocket as supply cannot meet projected demand by 2015demand by 2015

•• To limit temperature increase to 2 degrees we need to stabilise To limit temperature increase to 2 degrees we need to stabilise emissions by 2012emissions by 2012

•• By By 20302030 we will need cars that use 60% less fuel we will need cars that use 60% less fuel

•• $1 spent on fuel efficiency will save the country $2.50 in oil $1 spent on fuel efficiency will save the country $2.50 in oil importsimports

NOTENOTE: IEA is traditionally very conservative in its: IEA is traditionally very conservative in its’’ statements!statements!

Meeting Future Energy DemandMeeting Future Energy Demand

Conventional Biomass

Energy Efficiency & Reduced Demand

Solar

Wind

Advanced Nuclear

Advanced Gas

Advanced Coal

Adapted by Graeme Pearman from Battelle: similar approach used by Princeton University, see Socolow et al. Environment , 46 (2004)

Carbon capture and sequestration

Personal Personal Mobility?Mobility?

•• The The SegwaySegway way way ------------------

On the other hand On the other hand ------------

Average Fleet CO2 Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Australia 80%

Cut

EU 2015 M

andate

PSA Peugeot C

itroen Fiat

Renault

Toyota

Honda

General M

otorsEU M

andate Ford

Suzuki

Volkswage

nHyun

daiNiss

anMazda BMW

Daimler

Chrysler

Australian V

oluntary

Australian A

ve Min

Gra

ms

per

Kilo

met

er

Primary Source: European Federation for Transport & Environment

EU Now

Us Now

EU 2015

We need to go here!

Fuel/Powertrain ChoicesFuel/Powertrain ChoicesPetrol Petrol •• emits 2.64 kilos COemits 2.64 kilos CO22 per per litrelitre

Diesel Diesel •• emits 3.0 kilos COemits 3.0 kilos CO22 per per litrelitre•• but modern engines 30% more efficientbut modern engines 30% more efficient•• so 25% greenhouse savingsso 25% greenhouse savings

LPG LPG •• emits 1.82 kilos COemits 1.82 kilos CO22 per per litrelitre•• much less efficientmuch less efficient•• so 10% max greenhouse savingsso 10% max greenhouse savings

Logan Logan –– Low Cost & 71g/kmLow Cost & 71g/km

22ndndg Biofuel may be part of the Answerg Biofuel may be part of the Answer

HYBRIDISATION & FUEL EFFICIENT POTENTIALTYPE FUNCTIONALITY FUEL ECONOMY

Start/Stop Engine start- stop at idle +2-4%

Mild Hybrid Engine off on deceleration +10-20%Mild regenerative braking Electric power assist

Full Hybrid Full regenerative braking +30-50% CarsEngine cycle optimization & downsize +20-40% TrucksElectric launchLimited pure electric drive

Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in rechargeable More electric +100% during chargedrive during charge- depletion depletion same Reduced refueling as full hybrid after

Plug-in Range Full-function electric drive Electricity only in EVExtender EV Initial pure electric range same as full hybrid

Significantly reduced refueling afterward

Electric Vehicle Plug-in recharge only Electricity only100% pure electric rangeNo refueling

Courtesy Challenge Bibendum Shanghai 2007

Powertrain improvements must be costPowertrain improvements must be cost--effective effective –– gasoline gasoline can close gap with diesel can close gap with diesel –– Hybrid expensiveHybrid expensive

200%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0% 50% 100% 150%

Powertrain Cost Increase v Current Gasoline Unit

Driv

e C

ycle

CO

2R

educ

tion

Improved Gasoline

Source: Ricardo

250% 300%

55%

Hybrid

DieselDownsized Diesel

•• Technologies to reduce CO2 Technologies to reduce CO2 emissions generally increase emissions generally increase unit costunit cost

•• Technology combinations Technology combinations must be:must be:–– Cost effectiveCost effective–– Deliver consumer Deliver consumer

benefitsbenefits•• Most effective technologies Most effective technologies

with these characteristics:with these characteristics:–– T/C & downsizing with T/C & downsizing with

direct injectiondirect injection•• Hybrid systems deliver most Hybrid systems deliver most

CO2 benefits but expensiveCO2 benefits but expensive

Simple StopSimple Stop--Start Costs $80Start Costs $80--$150$150

Only 119 g/kmOnly 119 g/km

Peugeot Diesel Hybrid Peugeot Diesel Hybrid –– 74 g/km74 g/km

Lots of Diesel HybridsLots of Diesel Hybrids

It doesnIt doesn’’t have to be boring!t have to be boring!

How

a F

uel C

ell W

orks

How

a F

uel C

ell W

orks

You can Play with the Real EstateYou can Play with the Real Estate

Hydrogen Refueling Station Hydrogen Refueling Station –– 700 bar700 bar

• Next generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicle

• Home CNG reformer refuelling station

Honda FCXHonda FCX

Cars that emit 50 per cent less CO2 per kilometre than the equivalent current models could be on the road by 2030, subject to advances in hybrid and battery technologies and industry overcoming cost barriers.

Longer term, vehicle technologies to enable a 90 per cent reduction in per kilometre emissions, most likely based on battery-electric propulsion systems, are feasible.

Achieving this maximum benefit, however, is dependent on very low-CO2 power generation.

The King Review of Low Carbon Cars – October 2007

PowertrainPowertrain•• We will all be driving electric cars in the futureWe will all be driving electric cars in the future

Energy InputsEnergy Inputs•• Pure electric will be quickPure electric will be quick--charged from the mainscharged from the mains•• Hydrogen fuelHydrogen fuel--cell hybridscell hybrids•• Other Other APUsAPUs

BatteriesBatteries•• Recent battery research has been very promisingRecent battery research has been very promising•• NiNi--MhMh the battery of choice in HEVs & PHEVs for ~5 yearsthe battery of choice in HEVs & PHEVs for ~5 years•• Lithium based batteries will take over when they are safer, costLithium based batteries will take over when they are safer, cost

less & have longer operational life less & have longer operational life •• It will take ~4 years to market once technology provenIt will take ~4 years to market once technology proven

NOTE:NOTE: The best batteries still have 100 times less energy density The best batteries still have 100 times less energy density than petrol!than petrol!

Electric VehiclesElectric Vehicles

Only the Chinese will use Li Batteries Only the Chinese will use Li Batteries …………..

EVs Can be WeirdEVs Can be Weird

Or Different Or Different ……....

Or PracticalOr Practical

Or SportyOr Sporty

Or Both Or Both –– 150kph, 0150kph, 0--60 60 –– 3.9 sec3.9 sec

Fuel Cell PlugFuel Cell Plug--in Hybridin Hybrid

GM Volt GM Volt –– PlugPlug--in Hybridin Hybrid

Or you could take Public Transport!Or you could take Public Transport!

MAGLEV

It was raining so the speed

was kept down….

Usually it exceeds

400 km/h!

Future Climate AustraliaFuture Climate Australia

Calculator: Calculator: www.futureclimate.com.auwww.futureclimate.com.au

Pressure for change will be ongoing & relentless

We each have our part to play

What will our Automotive Industry look like in 10 years time?