assessment of 3q earnings & prospective full year eps of bangladesh banking industry

8/8/2019 Assessment of 3Q Earnings & Prospective Full Year EPS of Bangladesh Banking Industry

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The year 2010 has witnessed some unique phenomena in the banking sector of Bangladesh. The major events are listed

below:

With the wave of extensive upsurge in capital market since late months of last year, banking institutions also rushed to

capitalize this impetus into distributable earnings. Overall industrys exposure incapital market stood BDT 236.64 billion

that is 6.27% of its total liabil ities. Mentionable here, 12 banks have already surpassed their limit of investment in

market, that ranges from 10.25% -24.00% of respective total liabil ities. Persuadably, this over exposure in market makes

the banks operational policy deviate from core banking business besides thwarting real production growth and injecting

excess cash into capital market.

This year, full year EPS of most banks is expected to augment above 50% in comparison to that of last year. Capital

market is the key behind these enhanced earnings. Besides substantial capital gain fromtrading and avai lable-for-sale

securities, brokerage income and gain from transferring stock exchange membership to brokerage subsidiary are

expected to propel this growth. Apart from that, this particular industry enjoyed hefty growth in retail banking, which is

basically loan disbursed toward the unproductive sector.

With the relative amplification of economic activity and industrial growth, the excess liquidity of banks has been

decreasing and in August 2010 it stood as BDT 299 billion. State Owned Banks, Private Islamic Banks and Foreign Banks

have experienced decl ine of 16.58%, 9.44% and 25.45% in their excess liquidity from June 2010 to August 2010,respectively. However, excess liquidity of Conventional Private Banks has increased slightly by 0.07% for the same

period.

In the face of Bangladesh Banks efforts to bind interest spread around 5%, few banks have decided to increase deposit

rate to meet growing cash demand while lending rate suppose to remain more or less same. This phenomenon likely to

decrease % spread in 4th

quarter.

Recently Bangladesh Bank has directed Banking institutions to withdraw around BDT 65 bill ion from capital market, in

addition to increase both SLR (Statutory Liquidity Reserve) and CRR (Cash Reserve Requirement) that is estimated to

wash additional BDT20 billion from banking firmsto Bangladesh Bank Treasury. All these policies likely to pessimistically

affect capital market in days ahead. As a chain of sequence, banking profitability in following fiscal might also be

linearly effected.

NIM, 44.07%

II , 27.75%

CEB,

¡

.¡

%

Other, 8.¡

8%

Private Conventional Banks

CIM, 60.21%

II, 6.67%

CEB, 25.70%

Other, 7.42%

Private Islami Banks

NIM = Net Interest Margin

CIM = Core Income Margin

II = Income from Investments

CEB = Commission, Exchange and Brokerage

Other = Other Operating Income

Earnings Projection of Banks

December 22, 2010

private

Circulation

Sector Overview

3rd

Quarter Total Operating Income Decomposition



Bank NameCumulative Quarterly EPS

(Tk)

Projected EPS Estimated Growth in Current Price Forwar

EPS (Tk) (Tk) EPS (Tk) (Tk) P/E

Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 2010 2009 Y-o-Y Q-o-Q 30 Nov, 2010

BOTH MERCHANT BANKING AND BROKERAGE

ABBANK* 28.82 70.39 103.87 146.46 106.61 37.38% 27.21% 1453.00 9.92

BRACBANK 12.19 30.82 46.76 68.17 46.91 45.32% 34.32% 852.50 12.51

CITYBANK* 6.16 18.53 34.13 58.95 20.76 183.96% 59.08% 924.25 15.68IFIC* 11.22 32.91 65.15 85.29 41.26 106.71% -37.53% 1433.50 16.81

JAMUNABANK 0.64 1.81 2.69 3.90 3.10 25.81% 37.50% 60.40 15.49

MERCANBANK 4.93 12.81 22.79 27.87 19.83 40.54% -49.10% 617.00 22.14

MTBL 9.48 22.38 33.86 47.68 38.72 23.14% 20.38% 717.50 15.05

PRIMEBANK 12.64 26.02 40.28 57.32 48.88 17.27% 19.50% 892.00 15.56

ONLY MERCHANT BANKING

EXIMBANK 0.09 1.83 3.40 5.08 3.72 36.56% 7.01% 63.70 12.54

FIRSTSBANK 0.35 0.98 1.31 1.81 1.08 67.59% 51.52% 43.60 24.09

SOUTHEASTB 5.22 10.06 16.34 33.65 26.98 24.72% 175.57% 619.00 18.40

STANDBANKL 11.38 21.71 35.64 51.80 24.37 112.56% 16.02% 643.75 12.43

TRUSTBANK 12.95 16.72 46.36 63.90 27.55 131.94% -40.83% 717.00 11.22

ONLY BROKERAGE

ALARABANK* 1.64 3.40 4.51 7.60 3.67 107.08% 178.38% 71.50 9.41BANKASIA 16.11 34.85 57.29 78.85 44.20 78.39% -3.92% 837.00 10.62

DHAKABANK* 1.21 3.01 3.74 8.07 3.61 123.56% 496.85% 78.70 9.75

EBL 1.53 3.62 6.37 8.00 5.04 58.73% -40.73% 132.10 16.51

ISLAMIBANK 17.78 36.53 47.59 64.38 42.01 53.25% 51.81% 713.00 11.07

NBL* 1.52 2.50 7.51 10.15 4.69 116.42% -47.31% 148.90 14.67

NCCBANK 0.62 2.37 3.08 4.58 3.82 19.90% 111.27% 78.00 17.03

ONEBANKLTD 16.77 50.60 68.93 116.98 35.33 231.11% 162.14% 1078.75 9.22

PREMIERBAN* 0.60 1.63 2.20 4.84 3.73 29.76% 363.16% 67.80 14.01

PUBALIBANK 1.36 3.44 5.00 7.41 4.21 76.01% 54.49% 110.40 14.90

SHAHJABANK* 10.11 26.11 48.08 71.4 31.26 128.41% 6.14% 862.75 12.08

SIBL 0.42 0.52 1.12 1.49 1.66 -10.24% -38.33% 53.50 35.91

NO MERCHANT BANKING AND BROKERAGE

DUTCHBANGL21.26 53.50 70.50 94.91 56.93 66.71% 43.59% 2219.75 23.39ICBIBANK -0.60 -1.13 -1.61 -1.54 -3.10 50.32% 114.58% 21.80 -14.16

RUPALIBANK 9.09 64.84 41.78 71.39 133.00 -46.32% - 1898.50 26.59

UCBL 13.98 28.45 54.62 73.47 32.06 129.16% -27.97% 2396.00 32.61

UTTARABANK 19.11 33.13 45.60 56.47 46.13 22.41% -12.83% 1657.75 29.36

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

250.00%

ONE BANK CITY BANK TRUST

BANK

UCBL SHAHJALAL

BANK

231%

184%

132% 129% 128%

Top Projected EPS Growth

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

ONE BANK AL-ARAFA BANKDHAKA BANK AB BANK BANKASIA

9.229.41

9.759.92

10.62

Lowest Projected P/E Multiple

Note: a) Banks with (*) marks have transferred their brokerage membership in the year 2010.

b) All quarterly EPS of 2010 and EPS of 2009 havebeen restated using the latest outstanding number of shares.

Snapshot of Findings

Detailed Earnings Projections



Bank NameAfter Tax Profit From Transfer Pre Transfer Contribution to Post Transfer Contributi on to

Of Brokerage Membership EPS (Tk) EPS (Tk) EPS (Tk) EPS (%)

(in mn Tk)

ABBANK 340.00 (est.) 135.85 10.61 146.46 7.24%

ALARABANK 427.97 5.77 1.83 7.60 31.70%

CITYBANK 473.78 46.76 12.02 58.78 25.69%

DHAKABANK 795.51 5.08 2.99 8.07 58.89%

NBL 414.20 9.21 0.94 10.15 9.23%

PREMIERBANK 442.34 3.03 1.52 4.55 33.40%

SHAHJABANK 340.00 (est.) 61.48 9.93 71.40 13.90%

The basis and assumptions that MindSpring followed to estimate the banking sector earnings are as follows:

Mindspring Research Team assessed the individual items of income and expenses by utilizing historical annual and

quarterly statements as well as applying consensus judgment on the basis of macro and industry related knowledge

store.

Provision amount for 2010 is estimated considering historical provision rate, growth of loan and advances, and

percentage of provision in comparison to loan in the categories of standard, classified, and special accounts. Besides

that management effort to alter historical NPL% was given value.

Historical effective tax rate as well as the current tax rate of 42.5% is considered in determination of tax amount for

2010.

Historical net profit margin, operating profit margin, half-yearly profit margin, and also earning growth of various

periods are considered in estimation of earnings.

Note: The table is prepared using data up to November 30, 2010.

Methodology

Brokerage Membership Transference

Mahmudul Bari Mizanoor Rahman Noman Ahmed Khan N.M. Al Hossain Md. Farjad Siddiqui QaziMusaddeq Ahmad

ANALYST TEAM

Disclaimer This material is pr oduced by Mindspring Research (³Mindspring´), an independent research firm registered with Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms, Bangladesh. This document is not to

be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, or to enter into any other agr eement. Projections of potential risk or return are illustrative, and should not betaken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and any views expressed in this document are given as at the date of writing and subject to change. Wh ile the information has been ob tained from sources believed to be rel iable, Mindspring do not represent that it is accur ate or complete and it should n ot be relied onas such. Mindspring and its employees accept no liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwisearising in connection therewith. This

document is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the e xercise of independent judgment. It is being furnished to you solely for your information. By accepting this report you agree to be

bound by the foregoing limitations.

M I N D S P R I N G R E S E A R C H

Navana Tower (5th

Floor)|45 Gulshan Avenue|Gulshan -1|Dhaka 1217|Phone: +88(02)8836781, 8827107

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