UB Environmental Research Institute & CATHALAC

Dr. Elma Kay & Emil Cherrington

23.07.14

Guate

mala

• Determine current demand for and supply of water in Belize’s major and minor watersheds

• Assess future supply and

demand against the range of future land use scenarios and future CC scenarios

Guate

mala

• Examine how water quality might change as a result of CC and land use change scenarios

• Develop sustained capacity

within Belizean institutions to iteratively model / assess climate change impacts on water resources and in other sectors

Capacity-building workshops for UB ERI and stakeholders

Technical and scientific paper

Policy paper/Decision-maker Summary for Belize National Climate Change Committee

Short video for dissemination to the wider public

ALL 3 AR4 models show declines in precipitation for 2050s, relative to current rates ◦ By 2050s, only Hadley Centre model shows

substantial declines in precipitation (A2,B2)

All 5 AR5 models evaluated are generally negative in terms of rainfall outlook for Belize, across RCPs

1. Business as usual,

no PAs

2. Business as usual,

with PAs

3. Deforestation

rate halved

4. Deforestation

rate doubled

2050

Estimates of change in availability of surface water quantity as assessed by runoff (m3) vary

In general, a linear relationship: in scenarios with ↓ rainfall, ↓ in runoff

But ↑ deforestation also leads to ↑ runoff

Estimates of change in water quality as assessed by sediment concentration (kg/L) vary

But while rainfall ↓, higher sediment due to ↑ deforestation

Present results at local and regional conferences

Make all outputs available online through UB ERI and partner websites and FB pages, and distribute electronically by target group

Champion Policy Paper to Belize National Climate Change Committee (BNCCC) for integration of results into the new Climate Change Policy