Assessing pine bark beetle mortality in Southern CA Forests

Presented byCalifornia Department of Forestry

Mark Rosenberg

Rich Walker

Bill Stewart

Visit our web site at: http://frap.cdf.ca.gov or http://www.fs.fed.us/r5/rsl/projects/mapping/zone-map.shtml

Epidemic Begins

• In 2001 a massive pine bark beetle epidemic became evident

• Drought-induced

• Approximately one million acres have experienced severe tree mortality

• Adjacent to major metropolitan areas in San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino Counties

• Risks from fire and falling trees pose a major threat to public safety, private property, and ecosystem health

Summer 2001

Spring 2002

Spring 2003

Epidemic Begins

Local Emergency Declared

State Emergency Declared

Chronology

Examples of Tree Mortality as of April 2003

Cooperative Strategy

• Develop decision support tools in GIS to provide Operational Support capabilities (tree removal, evacuation planning, treatment priorities)

• Conduct Monitoring activities using aerial survey, remote sensing and FIA inventory

• Leverage existing data and programs (FIA, RSL, FHP, FRAP)

Two main project components

YR 1 - Imagery Acquisition

YR 2 - Change Detection

YR 3 – Vegetation Updates

YR 4 – Inventory

YR 5 - Trend Analysis

5 Panel Project Areas

Mapping and Monitoring Activities

• Map Tree Mortality through 2003 on 963,000 acres of public and private lands

• Update seamless vegetation data across all lands

• Re-Measure approximately 100 FIA plots on public and private lands

• Assess impacts of mortality on key assets including housing, infrastructure and ecological health.

• Generate a report and publish on the World Wide Web.

Support Operational Needs

• Provide tree mortality estimates using FHP aerial survey, FRAP Mortality data and existing FIA Inventory

• Conduct Wild Life Habitat Assessments

• Model Potential Fire Behavior

• Help Prioritize & Track treatments

• Assess Wood Utilization/Disposal options

Provide Analysis support to Agencies

Challenges

• Rapidly evolving forest mortality

• Increasing risk from falling trees and extreme fire events

• Many diverse assets at risk

• Many different entities with responsibilities and liabilities

• Need for operational decision support as well as long term monitoring of forest recovery

County Non federal AllPercentage Grand Total non federal

San Bernardino 879,886 3,413,989 26%

San Diego 477,912 605,081 79%

Riverside 235,020 1,134,091 21%

Los Angeles 1,049 9,430 11%

Grand Total 1,593,867 5,162,591 31%

Current Mortality in Bone Dry Tons by County (September 2003)

County Non federal AllPercentage Grand Total non federal

San Bernardino 1,423,067 6,256,486 23%

San Diego 871,129 1,159,960 75%

Riverside 434,903 1,799,190 24%

Los Angeles 9,727 69,626 14%

Grand Total 2,738,826 9,285,262 29%

All counties non federal current mortality acres

40%

60%

Residential

Sparse w ith forest

All counties non federal projected mortality (intermediate) bone dried tons

38%

62%

Residential

Sparse w ith forest

County Non federal AllPercentage Grand Total non federal

San Bernardino 1,966,248 9,098,983 22%

San Diego 1,264,345 1,714,840 74%

Riverside 634,787 2,464,288 26%

Los Angeles 18,406 129,823 14%

Grand Total 3,883,786 13,407,934 29%

All counties non federal projected mortality (long range) bone dried tons

37%

63%

Residential

Sparse w ith forest

Projected Mortality (intermediate) in Bone Dry Tons by County

Projected Mortality (long range) in Bone Dry Tons by County

Current and Projected Mortality estimates using FHP aerial survey data and existing FIA Inventory

High Priority Treatment areas

54%25%

21%

San Bernardino

San Diego

Riverside

County Total

San Bernardino 70,766

San Diego 32,878

Riverside 27,590

Grand total 131,234

High Priority Treatment areas

• Within 150 feet of Electricity Transmission Lines

•Within 150 feet of Primary Roads

•Within 150 feet of Secondary Roads

•Areas with housing density of 1 house per 20 acres or greater

• Areas outside of Federal lands and having a housing density of less than one house per 20 acres and slopes less than or equal to 30%

Current mortality acres inside treatment area by county

County TransmissionPrimary roads

Secondary roads Housing

PVT non-residential w / slope ≤ 30% Total

San Bernardino 291,169 33,849 245,803 236,427 124,750 931,997San Diego 2,466 5,895 86,493 30,386 228,140 353,379Riverside 56,232 5,974 59,491 42,220 54,306 218,224Grand total 349,867 45,718 391,787 309,033 407,196 1,503,600

All counties current mortality in bone dry tons inside treatment area by priority asset

class 23%

3%

26%21%

27%

18%

4%

33%14%

31%

Transmission

Primary roads

Secondary roads

Housing

PVT non-residential w / slope ≤ 30%

San Diego current mortality in bone dry tons

inside treatment area by priority asset class

1%24%

9%

64%

2%

Riverside current mortality in bone dry tons inside treatment area by priority asset class

26%

3%

27%19%

25%

Current mortality (BDT) inside treatment area by priority asset class and county

San Bernardino current mortality in bone dry tons inside treatment area by priority asset

class

32%

4%26%

25%

13%

Implications for the Future…• Need for quick initial assessments of current conditions

• Increasing demand for frequent updates to core data sets that describe natural conditions as well as key assets

• Require an ability to integrate various kinds of data sets to support a wide range of activities from operational to long term monitoring

• Need for various kinds of support tools for a large and varied client base with highly variable skill levels

• Need for ongoing processes to provide data and reports that are timely and applicable to current issues

Thank You

Contact Information

Visit our web sites at:

www.frap.cdf.ca.gov

www.fs.fed.us/r5/rsl/projects/mapping/zone-map.shtml

Mark Rosenberg

Email: mark.rosenberg@fire.ca.gov

Phone: (916)445-5366