wwwiciscom

Asia Polyester Chain

Challenges amp Survival Strategies

Prepared amp Presented by Samuel Wong

ICIS Markets Editor

16 May 2014 APIC Pattaya 2014

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Agenda

bull A look at historical prices in the polyester chain

Market Overview

bull Comparison between price spreads from Naphtha-PTA

bull Strategies adopted so far and its outcome

Spread amp Margins

bull A look at the Chinarsquos economy

bull Expansion plans

Looming Problems amp Results

bull Bearish outlook to continue

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

Market Overview

wwwiciscom

When One Suffers A Chain Effect Begins

Crude oil Heavy naphtha Crude gasoline Mixed xylenes Para-xylene

Long-chained producers Medium-chained producers

Short-chained producers

Para-xylene 665 PTA 86 Polyester 34 MEG

Key End Use Markets ndash Consumer Goods

Food amp Beverage Personal Care amp Home Care

Apparel Home Textile Apparel Home Textile Electronics

wwwiciscom

Historical Polyester Prices

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

18000

1-J

an-1

2

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

POY

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

01

-Jan

-12

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

PET

wwwiciscom

Asia PX amp PTA Spot Prices in H2 2013 - Present

1410 1440

1470 1415

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

PX

amp P

TA S

po

t P

rice

s ($

to

nn

e C

FR C

MP

)

Period In Months

Asia PX amp PTA Market Overview

PX Prices PTA ACP

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Market Overview

wwwiciscom

When One Suffers A Chain Effect Begins

Crude oil Heavy naphtha Crude gasoline Mixed xylenes Para-xylene

Long-chained producers Medium-chained producers

Short-chained producers

Para-xylene 665 PTA 86 Polyester 34 MEG

Key End Use Markets ndash Consumer Goods

Food amp Beverage Personal Care amp Home Care

Apparel Home Textile Apparel Home Textile Electronics

wwwiciscom

Historical Polyester Prices

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

18000

1-J

an-1

2

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

POY

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

01

-Jan

-12

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

PET

wwwiciscom

Asia PX amp PTA Spot Prices in H2 2013 - Present

1410 1440

1470 1415

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

PX

amp P

TA S

po

t P

rice

s ($

to

nn

e C

FR C

MP

)

Period In Months

Asia PX amp PTA Market Overview

PX Prices PTA ACP

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

When One Suffers A Chain Effect Begins

Crude oil Heavy naphtha Crude gasoline Mixed xylenes Para-xylene

Long-chained producers Medium-chained producers

Short-chained producers

Para-xylene 665 PTA 86 Polyester 34 MEG

Key End Use Markets ndash Consumer Goods

Food amp Beverage Personal Care amp Home Care

Apparel Home Textile Apparel Home Textile Electronics

wwwiciscom

Historical Polyester Prices

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

18000

1-J

an-1

2

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

POY

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

01

-Jan

-12

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

PET

wwwiciscom

Asia PX amp PTA Spot Prices in H2 2013 - Present

1410 1440

1470 1415

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

PX

amp P

TA S

po

t P

rice

s ($

to

nn

e C

FR C

MP

)

Period In Months

Asia PX amp PTA Market Overview

PX Prices PTA ACP

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Historical Polyester Prices

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

18000

1-J

an-1

2

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

POY

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

01

-Jan

-12

01

-Fe

b-1

2

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Ap

r-1

2

01

-May

-12

01

-Ju

n-1

2

01

-Ju

l-1

2

01

-Au

g-1

2

01

-Se

p-1

2

01

-Oct

-12

01

-No

v-1

2

01

-De

c-1

2

01

-Jan

-13

01

-Fe

b-1

3

01

-Mar

-13

01

-Ap

r-1

3

01

-May

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

3

01

-Ju

l-1

3

01

-Au

g-1

3

01

-Se

p-1

3

01

-Oct

-13

01

-No

v-1

3

01

-De

c-1

3

01

-Jan

-14

01

-Fe

b-1

4

01

-Mar

-14

01

-Ap

r-1

4

USD

$t

on

ne

FOB

CM

P

PET

wwwiciscom

Asia PX amp PTA Spot Prices in H2 2013 - Present

1410 1440

1470 1415

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

PX

amp P

TA S

po

t P

rice

s ($

to

nn

e C

FR C

MP

)

Period In Months

Asia PX amp PTA Market Overview

PX Prices PTA ACP

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

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Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Asia PX amp PTA Spot Prices in H2 2013 - Present

1410 1440

1470 1415

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

PX

amp P

TA S

po

t P

rice

s ($

to

nn

e C

FR C

MP

)

Period In Months

Asia PX amp PTA Market Overview

PX Prices PTA ACP

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Where The Problem Lies In The Polyester Chain

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PET Margins

PET Margins BREAKEVEN

050

100150200250300350400450

POY Margins

POY Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

PTA Margins

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

(CFR

CM

P)

PTA-PX Spread

MARGINS PX PTA

bull Margins for PTA rebounded from lows of last year bull Margins insufficient to cover variable costs

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

PX

Ma

rgin

s

0

200

400

600

800

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

Naphtha-PX Spread

MARGINS Break Even

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

MX-PX Spread

MARGINS BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14

$t

on

ne

TDP Margins Based On TolBZPX

TDP Margins BREAKEVEN

BREAKEVEN

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Weak Polyester Demand PTA Cutbacks

80

72 68

55

68

63

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 EMay14 EJun14

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

esm

on

th

Chinas PTA Operating Rates 2014

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

CA

PAC

ITY

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

UTI

LIZA

TIO

N

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

PX Makers Attempt To Balance Market

South Korearsquos makers have largely maintained high operating rates as downstream PTA makers were running at around 95 Several makers continue to operate TDP at full while cutting operating rates at PX site selling feedstock MX or pushing it for blending

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan Feb Mar Apr

PX Operating Rates

China South Korea Japan China South Korea Japan

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Why The Squeezed Margins In Q1 2014

76

82

74

80

72 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

January February March

Import PX Requirement Local Build Up PX OR PTA OR

bull Build up in stocks in China bull Weak downstream performance

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Various Strategies By Companies

bull PX producers cut operating ratesshut plants sells feedstock purchase spot PX

bull Japanrsquos Teijin decides to dissolve PX business bull PTA Producers keeps term contract at average of 60-80 coverage

bull PTA Producers selling feedstock PX to maintain healthy inventories

bull PTA Producers operating higher rates to ldquoforcerdquo shut smaller companies

bull Polyester producers to maintain healthy PTAMEG inventories avoid build ups

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Asian PTA producers in weaker pricing position a buyersrsquo

market

bull lt 10 of total import volume to link with PX price China

bull No polyester makers accepted PX-link contracts India

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Middle East

bull Cost portion mostly at 50-70 Turkey

bull PTA producers push for PX-linked contract formula to enlarge spread

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Looming Problems amp Results

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Proportions In The Downstream Markets

PFY 67

PSF 15

PET 18

Chinas Polyester Production

PFY 50

PSF 21

PET 29

Indias Polyester Production

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Why Are All Eyes On China

China 63

NE Asia 14

India 10

SE Asia 9

Middle East 19

Asia Polyester Market Shares by Region

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Polyester Growth Forecast by Regions

China India NE Asia SE Asia Middle East

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Asia Polyester Growth

China S Korea Taiwan

Japan India Thailand

Middle East Indonesia Others

Indias Polyester Growth Rate Chinas Polyester Growth Rate

Is downstream markets growth that strong

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

275 313

363 413

453 483

0

20

40

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Chinas Polyester Capacity Expansion

16 11

16

51 56

62

78 86 89

0

3

6

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Unit million

tonnesyear

Indias Polyester Capacity Expansion

19 15

10

End market continues expansion

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA market to remain oversupplied

bull Demand expected to grow 6-7year capacity growth to

accelerate again in 2014

Source Industry

3

12

25

12

20

12

5

145

73 62 65 71 67 68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PTA Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Asia PX capacity growth peaks in 2013-2015

Data source Industry sources

bull Asiarsquos PX demand growth is expected to remain at 5-6 annually

bull Capacity growth forecast at 14-17 annually in 2013-2015 to decline to 5

in 2016 Supply growth acceleration to keep up with downstream capacities

9

2

17 15

14

5 8

5

6 5 5 6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Gro

wth

rate

Asia PX Supply vs Demand Growth

Supply growth rate Demand growth rate

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

455

507

592

663

703 736

+12 +8 +7 +6 +6 +5

85

82

76

72 72

73

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Operating rates

Unit million tonnesyear

Asia polyester capacity Asia polyester production Utilisation rates

Polyester operating rates to lower

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Asia PTA plants to run at lower operating rates

Source Industry

bull PTA capacity reached 605m tonnesyear in 2013 up by

12 from 2012 after a 25 growth in 2012

bull Continued expansions will lower operating rates further

91

77 73

66 63

64

55

70

85

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia and Middle East PTA Capacity Expansion

PTA capacity PTA operating rates

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

96 95 98

89

82 76 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

Op

erati

ng

rate

s

Un

it

millio

n t

on

nes

year

Asia PX Plants Operating Rate

Asia PX capacity Asia PX OR

To balance supplydemand conditions

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

A Fundamentally Short Market To Turn Long

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Bala

nce

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Un

it

00

0 t

on

nes

year

Year

PX Effective Demand amp Supply In Asia

Effective PX supply Effective PX demand Balance

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Challenges Ahead

China to continue to Be the driving force for Asia In 2013 East Asia and Pacific region marked a growth of 72 Overall growth in the region expected to stay flat at 72 in 2014 China expected to grow at 75 New PX capacities to lighten tight supply burden

Moderation of economic activity from Indonesia Malaysia and Thailand because of weak commodity revenues and policy tightening Credit tightening and banks in China restrict cash-flows Non-integrated facilities to face high costs pressure might be forced to shut

Tailwinds Headwinds

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

The Polyester Chain Expansions

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

PX capacity expansion to accelerate in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

PTA capacity expansion continues in Asia

Source Industry

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Source Industry

Polyester capacity expansion continues in Asia

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

China Import PX Stats

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

S Korea

Japan

Taiwan

SE Asia

Middle East

Others

India

2012 2013

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

CHINA Imp 2743

KOREA Exp 3941

JAPAN Exp 119

TAIWAN Exp 580

INDIA Imp 852

SE ASIA Imp 350

Exp 1100

MIDDLE EAST Imp560

EU (incl Turkey) Exp 650 Imp 370

Asia PTA 2013 Trade Flow

220kt 188kt

23kt

390kt

81kt

380kt

12kt

7kt 170kt

1800kt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

South Korea Expected Operating Rates

CAPACITY PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT OR

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

South Korea Expected Exports

OTHERS TURKEY INDIA CHINA

Will South Korea Follow Taiwanrsquos Strategy

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

Market Outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PX price trend outlook

PX 2014 Contract

bull In China term contracts were fixed mostly at flat to a premium of $3tonne based on a 50 ACP 50 CFR quotes formula

bull Contracts were largely fixed at a premium of $7-9tonne in 2013

bull Since the start of 2014 there have been 3 breaks in the PX ACP

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

bull NaphthaPX spread to be lowered from highs of $500tonne to estimates of $250-260tonne in 2014

bull MXPX spread to remain below the breakeven point estimated at $150-160tonne in 2014

bull Strong uptrend to be limited

Supply and Demand

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

PX 2014 Contract

PX Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull Market dynamics to shift from fundamentally short to balanced-to-long

bull China to remain key importer with imports per month expected to increased to around 800000-850000 tonnes

bull India to be in an export position following OMPL start-up

Asia PX price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

Asia PTA price trend outlook

PTA 2014 Term

bull PTA makers continue to push for PX-linked formula contracts to mitigate losses

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

bull Inventories to remain high in China

bull Despite huge influx of PX capacities PTA prices under pressure

bull PX-PTA margins estimated at $80-90tonne

Supply and Demand

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

End-users

PTA 2014 Term

PTA Spot Prices

Supply and Demand

bull PTA expansion continues market to remain oversupplied

bull China PTA makers to push cargoes out from the country

bull Supply growth to continue to outstrip demand growth

Asia PTA price trend outlook

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt

wwwiciscom

ICIS has the expertise to support you ndash from the latest news and trading prices to long-term forecasts

Pricing information Reliable price assessments and analyses for the polyester chain including price history enabling you to understand price drivers and to settle your contract prices more confidently

Real-time news service Breaking news and analyses across the global polyester chain Be the first to find out about market-moving news including production updates plant capacities output and shutdowns

Supply and demand data Access data on supply and demand imports and exports as well as production capacity for the global markets over a 6-11 year time span Online interface is customisable enabling you to create a view of trade patterns according to your needs

In-depth market analysis Our expert insight delivers the information and data you need to understand short mid- and long-term trends (up until 2025) as well as informed commentary and analysis on the market outlook ndash all of which enables you to plan for the future with confidence

Request your free sample price report today gtgt

Request your free trial today gtgt

Read more about ICIS supply and demand data gtgt

Read more about our in-depth analysis services gtgt