completing the integrated polyester chain 10 january 2014 feedstock business

18
Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

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Page 1: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain

10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

Page 2: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

2

Capturing Value Chain through IntegrationResilient and Sustainable profitable growth

Value Drivers

• Entering upstream: Aromatics Project

• Building Smart Assets: Scale, Close to Feedstock, Markets

• Retrofit existing Assets: Cost reduction & enhanced productivity

• Assured Markets:Captive Feed to IVL Polyester D/S• Management Bandwidth:

Knowledgeable & Experienced Team

2014 - 2018

Current Value Structure

2008 2013Volume KT 665 2,146Revenue $M 442 2,424

Target Value Structure

2014 2018Volume KT 2,593 5,223Revenue $M 2,739 5,624

Page 3: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

3

More than tripling feedstock capacity in 10 years

Indonesia PTA

500 KTUS EG550 KT

Netherland PTA

Expansion250 KT

Thailand PTA

600 KT770 KT

20091745 KT

EG 680 KT

20186275 KT

Milestones in moving Upstream

20132012 2015 2017-18

Netherland PTA

375 KT

Abu Dhabi PX 1400 KT

PTA “Project Manhattan”

1200 KT

Abu Dhabi BZ 500 KT

BZ500 KT

PX1400 KT

PTA 3695 KT

Capturing full value chain integration

EG 130KT

Page 4: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

4

Source: IVL Analysis

Energy & Upstream (Naphtha and Ethylene)

Polyester Chain (PX, PTA, EG and Polyesters)

Strategic Upstream Investment

Refinery(Naphtha)

Steam Cracker

(Ethylene)

Aromatics (PX) plant

MEG plant

PTA plant

Polyester Polymer plant

Polyester Fiber

PET Resin

PET Film

Crude Oil/Natural Gas

PET Recycle Resin (PCR)

Page 5: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

5

Resilient Margins – Polyester Value Chain

• IVL’s integration loop is in an advance state of capturing entire value chain to enhance margins

• IVL PTA targeted 3.9 MMTA capacity by 2018 warrants PX to the tune of 2.5MMTA

• Footprint in US EG to lead to many opportunities in Olefins integration & EG expansion

• Entry into BZ will open up new opportunities

Source: Industry Publications PAL, IHS, PCI & IVL Analysis, Global spreads derived from simple avg. of US & EU del spreads and Asia spreads on CFR China basis. BZ spreads on FOB NEA basis

Chain Spread 06-13 Avg: 1292/MT

PX Spread 06-13 Avg: 470$/MT

BZ Spread 06-13 Avg:240$/MT

BZ Spread over Naphtha

Page 6: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

6

Indorama Ventures Ltd and Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Co.(ChemaWEyaat) have signed a JV to develop the Tacaamol Aromatics Plant on Madeenat ChemaWEyaat Al Gharbia’s (MCAG) site in the Western Region of Abu Dhabi. Paraxylene - 1.4 MMTA Benzene - 0.5 MMTA Start up - 2018 Technology - UOP Virtual Integration with Refinery / Feedstock Attractive Feedstock Pricing Project Management Consultancy – Foster Wheeler Feed available from 2014 H2

ChemaWEyaat will hold 51% equity & Indorama 49% in the JV to be known as Abu Dhabi Chemicals Integration Co. LLC (Tacaamol).

IVL’s investment into Aromatics - A Better Cost PositionNew Aromatics Plant at Abu Dhabi

Page 7: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

7

Payback:

2011-13 Capex – 0.9 years2014-15 Capex – 2.6 years

72.50 US$ Mil.

28.13 US$ Mil./Y

2014-15

PTIP 57.15

TPT 14.60

IRPL 0.75

2014-15

PTIP 19.67

TPT 7.81

IRPL 0.65

Retrofits give fast payback - lower RM consumption and energy savings

PTA - Cost Reduction through RetrofitOperational Excellence

2011-13

TPT 6.19

IRPL 2.64

IRHE 1.00

Capex (USD Mil.)

2011-13

TPT 6.49

IRPL 3.96

IRHE 0.56

Annual Saving (USD Mil.)

9.83 US$ Mil.

11.01 US$ Mil./Y

Page 8: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

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Flexible operations with 4 facilities located in Thailand, Indonesia and NetherlandsIntegrated PTA production with D/S: 70% captive consumption overall. RTD and Indonesia PTA fully captive and Thai has 60% captive / associate consumption. End product logistics cost savings, sharing of physical infrastructure, utility, storage facilitiesStrong asset portfolio with low cost position compared to regional peersCost advantage obtained by scale, polyester and energy integration/co-location, operational excellenceSecured, cost advantaged feedstock supply under strategic contractsStrong Buying position in Europe and SE Asia Co-location / proximity to feedstock (pipeline, barge)Highly experienced mgt team with track record of value creation

IVL PTA BusinessWell positioned regionally with high degree of integration

Page 9: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

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One of the largest EO EG facility in North America

Diverse Product portfolio

Advantage feedstock sourcing from natural gas/shale gas

Strategic location in Celanese facility with sharing cost

High EBITDA margin business

Low operational risk

Favorable industry dynamics

Key Factors

IVOG - EOEG Business

Page 10: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

10 Source: IHS, IVL Analysis

Product End-Use Products End Use

Purified Ethylene Oxide (PEO)

SurfactantsDetergentsSoaps & Shampoos

Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)

Polyester fibers Pet Resin Film resin Antifreeze & coolants Industrial application

Diethylene Glycol (DEG)

SolventLubricants Gas dehydration

Triethylene Glycol (TEG)

Industrial solventInsecticidesGas dehydration Pigments

Alcohol Ethoxylates (AE’s)

Detergents Shampoos

IVOG - Diverse product portfolio

Page 11: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

11 Source: PCI, IVL Analysis

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f -

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

86%

80%

87%

91% 90% 90%

91% 92%

90%

Capacity Demand Utilization rate

MMT EO Capacity /Production

EO industry in North America : Extremely Tight

Tight EO market leads to tightness in EG industry

Page 12: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

12Source: PCI, IVL Analysis

2009 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f

14.0017.00

19.00

25.0028.00

32.00

(Cts/lb) PEO Margins in USA 2012 to 2016f

High PEO Margins expected in USA

Enhance PEO margins due to shortage

Page 13: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

13

IVOG – PEO & MEG Market Share in USA

Source: IHS, IVL Analysis

2013- MEG market share by competitor

Total PEO merchant market size in USA is 517 KT in 2013

IVOG is largest seller of PEO to US merchant buyers with 30% market share

IVOG30%

LBI19%

Shell27%

BASF19%

Dow5%

2013- PEO Producer merchant market share

Shell16%

IVOG16%

Huntsman18%

Dow13%

Lyondell Basell14%

Eastman5%

Formosa18%

US MEG market short by 691KT in 2013. Total requirement is 2250kt. Demand shortfall supplied by Canada and Middle east Twelve major MEG buyers, seven polyester buyers, five antifreeze buyers

Page 14: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

14 Source: IHS, IVL Analysis

Cheaper Ethylene in North America Global tightness High US MEG

Spreads

MEG SPREADS

2012 2013f 2014f 2015f -

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

NTP Ethylene S.E.A MEG Asia Spread MEG N.A. spread

$/mt Avg. Ethylene Price Gap between US and Asia ( 2012 to 2016f)= 240 $/MT

Page 15: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

15Source: PCI, IVL Analysis

Saudi Arab Ethane USGC Ethane WE Naptha NEA Naptha China Coastal Naptha

China Inland coal China coastal Methanol-150

50

250

450

650

850

1050

1250

92

384

1029 10401105

745

1220

Raw material less coproduct Utilities Fixed Cost Total Cash Cost

$/mt Ethylene production cash cost @ $99 Brent/$3.7 U.S Gas

43% capacity based on Gas 52% capacity based on Naphtha

No longer available

5% capacity based on dmo/mto & coal based unproven technologies

EG – GLOBAL INDUSTRY COST CURVE

World MEG Floor price to be set by MEG producers with integrated Naphtha economics

Page 16: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

16Source: IVL Analysis

Debottlenecking

Expansion

Downstream integration

Upstream integration

Increase crude EO capacity by 100KT to balance PEO & EG

production

Set up facility for PEO derivatives like Ethanolamine, Ethoxylates etc

Set up / participate in crackers in N.A to

leverage shale gas. “Make or Buy decision” for captive requirement

Scope ScaleKey business growth drivers

FOOTPRINT IN US TO LEAD TO GREATER OLEFINS & EG OPPORTUNITIES

Set up new MEG plant of 750KT for captive use. IVL’s global captive requirement 2000 kt (in 2015f)

Page 17: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

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Being at all segments of value chainUpstream Integration

Competitive RM Buying

Leverage volume, supply Chain

Retrofit & DBN Existing Assets

Taking advantage of integrated production at single location & making assets more

competitive

Focus on Untapped Potential

Leveraging on Shale Gas, Mid-stream Cracker Investment, Aromatics

Assured MarketsSeizing Opportunity as less competitive

& non-integrated players vanish away

Strategy – Feedstock

Page 18: Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain 10 January 2014 Feedstock Business

Thank You