completing the integrated polyester chain 10 january 2014 feedstock business
TRANSCRIPT
Completing the Integrated Polyester Chain
10 January 2014 Feedstock Business
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Capturing Value Chain through IntegrationResilient and Sustainable profitable growth
Value Drivers
• Entering upstream: Aromatics Project
• Building Smart Assets: Scale, Close to Feedstock, Markets
• Retrofit existing Assets: Cost reduction & enhanced productivity
• Assured Markets:Captive Feed to IVL Polyester D/S• Management Bandwidth:
Knowledgeable & Experienced Team
2014 - 2018
Current Value Structure
2008 2013Volume KT 665 2,146Revenue $M 442 2,424
Target Value Structure
2014 2018Volume KT 2,593 5,223Revenue $M 2,739 5,624
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More than tripling feedstock capacity in 10 years
Indonesia PTA
500 KTUS EG550 KT
Netherland PTA
Expansion250 KT
Thailand PTA
600 KT770 KT
20091745 KT
EG 680 KT
20186275 KT
Milestones in moving Upstream
20132012 2015 2017-18
Netherland PTA
375 KT
Abu Dhabi PX 1400 KT
PTA “Project Manhattan”
1200 KT
Abu Dhabi BZ 500 KT
BZ500 KT
PX1400 KT
PTA 3695 KT
Capturing full value chain integration
EG 130KT
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Source: IVL Analysis
Energy & Upstream (Naphtha and Ethylene)
Polyester Chain (PX, PTA, EG and Polyesters)
Strategic Upstream Investment
Refinery(Naphtha)
Steam Cracker
(Ethylene)
Aromatics (PX) plant
MEG plant
PTA plant
Polyester Polymer plant
Polyester Fiber
PET Resin
PET Film
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
PET Recycle Resin (PCR)
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Resilient Margins – Polyester Value Chain
• IVL’s integration loop is in an advance state of capturing entire value chain to enhance margins
• IVL PTA targeted 3.9 MMTA capacity by 2018 warrants PX to the tune of 2.5MMTA
• Footprint in US EG to lead to many opportunities in Olefins integration & EG expansion
• Entry into BZ will open up new opportunities
Source: Industry Publications PAL, IHS, PCI & IVL Analysis, Global spreads derived from simple avg. of US & EU del spreads and Asia spreads on CFR China basis. BZ spreads on FOB NEA basis
Chain Spread 06-13 Avg: 1292/MT
PX Spread 06-13 Avg: 470$/MT
BZ Spread 06-13 Avg:240$/MT
BZ Spread over Naphtha
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Indorama Ventures Ltd and Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Co.(ChemaWEyaat) have signed a JV to develop the Tacaamol Aromatics Plant on Madeenat ChemaWEyaat Al Gharbia’s (MCAG) site in the Western Region of Abu Dhabi. Paraxylene - 1.4 MMTA Benzene - 0.5 MMTA Start up - 2018 Technology - UOP Virtual Integration with Refinery / Feedstock Attractive Feedstock Pricing Project Management Consultancy – Foster Wheeler Feed available from 2014 H2
ChemaWEyaat will hold 51% equity & Indorama 49% in the JV to be known as Abu Dhabi Chemicals Integration Co. LLC (Tacaamol).
IVL’s investment into Aromatics - A Better Cost PositionNew Aromatics Plant at Abu Dhabi
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Payback:
2011-13 Capex – 0.9 years2014-15 Capex – 2.6 years
72.50 US$ Mil.
28.13 US$ Mil./Y
2014-15
PTIP 57.15
TPT 14.60
IRPL 0.75
2014-15
PTIP 19.67
TPT 7.81
IRPL 0.65
Retrofits give fast payback - lower RM consumption and energy savings
PTA - Cost Reduction through RetrofitOperational Excellence
2011-13
TPT 6.19
IRPL 2.64
IRHE 1.00
Capex (USD Mil.)
2011-13
TPT 6.49
IRPL 3.96
IRHE 0.56
Annual Saving (USD Mil.)
9.83 US$ Mil.
11.01 US$ Mil./Y
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Flexible operations with 4 facilities located in Thailand, Indonesia and NetherlandsIntegrated PTA production with D/S: 70% captive consumption overall. RTD and Indonesia PTA fully captive and Thai has 60% captive / associate consumption. End product logistics cost savings, sharing of physical infrastructure, utility, storage facilitiesStrong asset portfolio with low cost position compared to regional peersCost advantage obtained by scale, polyester and energy integration/co-location, operational excellenceSecured, cost advantaged feedstock supply under strategic contractsStrong Buying position in Europe and SE Asia Co-location / proximity to feedstock (pipeline, barge)Highly experienced mgt team with track record of value creation
IVL PTA BusinessWell positioned regionally with high degree of integration
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One of the largest EO EG facility in North America
Diverse Product portfolio
Advantage feedstock sourcing from natural gas/shale gas
Strategic location in Celanese facility with sharing cost
High EBITDA margin business
Low operational risk
Favorable industry dynamics
Key Factors
IVOG - EOEG Business
10 Source: IHS, IVL Analysis
Product End-Use Products End Use
Purified Ethylene Oxide (PEO)
SurfactantsDetergentsSoaps & Shampoos
Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)
Polyester fibers Pet Resin Film resin Antifreeze & coolants Industrial application
Diethylene Glycol (DEG)
SolventLubricants Gas dehydration
Triethylene Glycol (TEG)
Industrial solventInsecticidesGas dehydration Pigments
Alcohol Ethoxylates (AE’s)
Detergents Shampoos
IVOG - Diverse product portfolio
11 Source: PCI, IVL Analysis
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
86%
80%
87%
91% 90% 90%
91% 92%
90%
Capacity Demand Utilization rate
MMT EO Capacity /Production
EO industry in North America : Extremely Tight
Tight EO market leads to tightness in EG industry
12Source: PCI, IVL Analysis
2009 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f
14.0017.00
19.00
25.0028.00
32.00
(Cts/lb) PEO Margins in USA 2012 to 2016f
High PEO Margins expected in USA
Enhance PEO margins due to shortage
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IVOG – PEO & MEG Market Share in USA
Source: IHS, IVL Analysis
2013- MEG market share by competitor
Total PEO merchant market size in USA is 517 KT in 2013
IVOG is largest seller of PEO to US merchant buyers with 30% market share
IVOG30%
LBI19%
Shell27%
BASF19%
Dow5%
2013- PEO Producer merchant market share
Shell16%
IVOG16%
Huntsman18%
Dow13%
Lyondell Basell14%
Eastman5%
Formosa18%
US MEG market short by 691KT in 2013. Total requirement is 2250kt. Demand shortfall supplied by Canada and Middle east Twelve major MEG buyers, seven polyester buyers, five antifreeze buyers
14 Source: IHS, IVL Analysis
Cheaper Ethylene in North America Global tightness High US MEG
Spreads
MEG SPREADS
2012 2013f 2014f 2015f -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
NTP Ethylene S.E.A MEG Asia Spread MEG N.A. spread
$/mt Avg. Ethylene Price Gap between US and Asia ( 2012 to 2016f)= 240 $/MT
15Source: PCI, IVL Analysis
Saudi Arab Ethane USGC Ethane WE Naptha NEA Naptha China Coastal Naptha
China Inland coal China coastal Methanol-150
50
250
450
650
850
1050
1250
92
384
1029 10401105
745
1220
Raw material less coproduct Utilities Fixed Cost Total Cash Cost
$/mt Ethylene production cash cost @ $99 Brent/$3.7 U.S Gas
43% capacity based on Gas 52% capacity based on Naphtha
No longer available
5% capacity based on dmo/mto & coal based unproven technologies
EG – GLOBAL INDUSTRY COST CURVE
World MEG Floor price to be set by MEG producers with integrated Naphtha economics
16Source: IVL Analysis
Debottlenecking
Expansion
Downstream integration
Upstream integration
Increase crude EO capacity by 100KT to balance PEO & EG
production
Set up facility for PEO derivatives like Ethanolamine, Ethoxylates etc
Set up / participate in crackers in N.A to
leverage shale gas. “Make or Buy decision” for captive requirement
Scope ScaleKey business growth drivers
FOOTPRINT IN US TO LEAD TO GREATER OLEFINS & EG OPPORTUNITIES
Set up new MEG plant of 750KT for captive use. IVL’s global captive requirement 2000 kt (in 2015f)
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Being at all segments of value chainUpstream Integration
Competitive RM Buying
Leverage volume, supply Chain
Retrofit & DBN Existing Assets
Taking advantage of integrated production at single location & making assets more
competitive
Focus on Untapped Potential
Leveraging on Shale Gas, Mid-stream Cracker Investment, Aromatics
Assured MarketsSeizing Opportunity as less competitive
& non-integrated players vanish away
Strategy – Feedstock
Thank You