Forging Alliances: Asian Regionalism As

The Next Step Towards Institutional Globalism

Ryan BrackProf. Stephen Noerper

NYU Center for Global Affairs Summer Institute07/30/07

“East Asia will likely be the next region to define its economic and political interests on a transnational basis, either with China at the helm of an East Asian community and Japan somewhat marginalized, or (less likely) with China and Japan managing to contrive some form of partnership…”

“In effect, a tri-partite division of the United States, the European Union, and East Asia is emerging, with India, Russia, Brazil and perhaps Japan preferring to act as swing states according to their national interests.”

~ Zbigniew Brzezinki, Second Chance

Agenda• Who is ASEAN?

• Why ASEAN Matters

• ASEAN Systems Theory

• Regional Bandwagon

• Approach: Realism v. Liberalism

Who is ASEAN?

• Indonesia (1967)• Malaysia • Philippines • Singapore • Thailand

• Brunei (1984)• Vietnam (1995)• Laos (1997)• Myanmar (1997)• Cambodia (1999)

Who is ASEAN?

AEM:  ASEAN Economic MinistersAMM:  ASEAN Ministerial Meeting AFMM:  ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting SEOM:  Senior Economic Officials MeetingASC:  ASEAN Standing CommitteeSOM:  Senior Officials MeetingAFDM:  ASEAN Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting

Supporting these ministerial bodies are 29 committees of senior officials and 122 technical working groups. SOURCE: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy. Royal Thai Government

Who is ASEAN?• 1961 - Association of Southeast Asia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.

• 1967 - ASEAN Declaration signed by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand (Bangkok)• Reaction to communism in Vietnam and within own borders

• 1971 - Declaration on Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (Kuala Lumpur)

• 1976- Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (Bali)

• 1976 – Bali Concord I, jumpstarts organization and turns from ideological to economic focus (Bali).

• 1992 - Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT), framework for the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)

• 1993- ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA)

• 1995- Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (Bangkok)

• 1997/9 - ASEAN plus Three created to improve existing ties to China, Japan, South Korea

• 2003 - Bali Concord II, “The ASEAN Security Community is envisaged to bring ASEAN’s political and security cooperation to a higher plane to ensure that countries in the region live at peace with one another and with the world at large in a just, democratic and harmonious environment.”

• 2005 - East Asia Summit, ASEAN plus Three, India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia (observer)

• 2006 - ASEAN granted ‘observer status’ at the UN General Assembly, ASEAN names UN ‘dialogue partner’.

• 2007 - Draft Charter, 40th Anniversary

Who is ASEAN?

567 million people (8.5% of world population)

Disparities exist (landmass, population, growth, total GDP, GDP/capita)

Source: ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN Key Indicators, http://www.aseansec.org/13100.htm

Who is ASEAN?

• Source: ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN Statistical Pocketbook 2006, http://www.aseansec.org/13100.htm

Diverse economic industries•Agriculture•Manufacturing

•Low-tech•High-tech

•Services

Much work to be done•Many below poverty line•Integrated into economic system

•Largest Christian population in Asia (The Philippines)

•Largest Muslim population in the world (Indonesia)

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 1.0

Steward Nations(Colonial powers and the colonized)

Spain

England

France

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 2.0

Independent Nations(United Nations Trusteeship)

Global Framework

League of Nations/United Nations

Association of Nations

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 2.0

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 3.0

Regional Framework

AU

ASEAN

EU

Association of Nations

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 3.0

Global Framework

AU

ASEAN

EU

Association of Regions/Nations

United Nations

AU

ASEAN

EU

Why ASEAN Matters:Globalization 3.0

Global Framework

Association of Regions/Nations

Regional Global

National

ASEAN Systems Theory:Architecture

A REGIONAL MANAGER KNOWS…

Regional Manager’s Systems Theory• Local = local identity• Regional = nexus• HQ = institutional identity

• Small, Medium, Large• Company united by

brand• Brand informed by

customers• Regional managers

know what local stores want and how to implement HQ directives

ASEAN

ASEAN Systems Theory:Architecture“The world today does not have enough international institutions that can confer legitimacy on collective action, and creating new institutions that will better balance the requirements of legitimacy and effectiveness will be the prime task for the coming generation.

“…there is a great deal of global governance in the world today that exists outside the orbit of the United Nations and its allied agencies.

“…An appropriate agenda for American foreign policy will be to promote a world populated by a large number of overlapping and sometimes competitive international institutions, what can be labeled multi-multilateralism.

~Francis Fukuyama, America At The Crossroads

Regional Manager’s Systems Theory• Local = local identity• Regional = nexus• HQ = institutional

identity

ASEAN Systems Theory:Time (rate of change)

A BRUNCH CHEF KNOWS…

Emulsification• If you cook butter and

eggs too quickly, they won’t bond

• Making hollandaise• Chef’s Systems Theory

• Eggs = identity • Butter =

institution

ASEAN Systems Theory:Time (rate of change)

“Democracy historically has emerged through a prolonged process of enhancement of human rights, first from the economic and then to the political, first among some privileged classes and then on a wider scale. That process in turn entails the progressive appearance of the rule of law, and the gradual imposition of legal and later constitutional rules over the structures of power.”

“In contrast, when democracy is rapidly imposed in traditional societies not exposed to the progressive expansion of civil rights and the gradual emergence of the rule of law, it is likely to precipitate intensified conflict, with mutually intolerant extremes colliding in violence…The result has not enhanced prospects for stability but intensified social tensions. The best such efforts are likely to produce is a fervent but intolerant populism, ostensibly democratic but in fact a tyranny of the majority.”

~ Zbigniew Brzezinki, Second Chance

Emulsification• If you cook butter and eggs too quickly, they won’t bond

ASEAN Systems Theory:Historical Models

• Ch’ing DynastyTi-Yong

“Chinese learning as the base, Western learning for use”

• JapanWakon, Yosei“Japanese spirit, Western technique”

• KoreaHwahon, Yangjae

Regional Bandwagon:ASEAN Plus Three

• Indonesia • Malaysia • Philippines • Singapore • Thailand • Brunei • Vietnam • Laos • Myanmar • Cambodia • + China, Japan, S.

Korea

Regional Bandwagon:A Comparison

• EU• 4,325,675• 496,198,6

05• 12,025,41

5• 24,235

• ASEAN• 4,400,000• 567,000,0

00• 2,172,000• 4,044

• ASEAN+3• 14,474,479• 2,067,857,3

61• 17,588,000• 7,456

OrganizationSq. kmPopulationGDP PPP (mill.)GDP/capita

(US$)• USA• 9,631,418• 300,000,000• 12,980,000• 43,500

Regional Bandwagon:East Asia Summit (AES)

• Indonesia • Malaysia • Philippines • Singapore • Thailand • Brunei • Vietnam • Laos • Myanmar • Cambodia• + China, Japan, S.

Korea• + India, Australia, NZ• + Russia

Regional Bandwagon:ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

SOURCE: ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), US Department of State, http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/4177.htm, accessed 07/26/07

ARF includes: ASEAN10Japan, North Korea, South Korea, China, India, Russia, Mongolia,Papua New Guinea, Australia, New Zealand,United States, Canada, European Union

Regional Bandwagon:Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC)

• Australia• Brunei• Canada• Indonesia• Japan• Malaysia• New Zealand• Philippines• Singapore• South Korea• Thailand• United States• China• Hong Kong• Chinese Taipei • Mexico• Papua New Guinea• Chile• Peru• Russia• Viet Nam• India (requesting membership)

Liberalism v. Realism:ASEAN or APEC?

Singapore MP, Lee Hsien Loong US President, George W. BushMay 4, 2007

BUSH: “…today, I talked to Prime Minister Lee about America's desire to stay in close contact with not only Singapore, but our partners in what we call the ASEAN nations -- those would be Southeast Asian nations. To this end, the Prime Minister has invited me, and I've accepted an invitation to go back to Singapore to talk to our partners and friends about trade and security, and we'll do so on my way to the APEC meetings in Australia. So thanks for the invitation in September.”

Liberalism v. Realism:ASEAN or APEC? • 40th Anniversary• Charter

• Final Draft - September (Philippines)• Signed - November (Singapore)

• Bush publicly commits but…• Bush won’t attend• Rice won’t attend (2nd time in 3 years)• Negroponte will (Former Ambassador to Phillippines)

• Motives• Focus domestic issues? (Iraq debate in September)

• Bush attending APEC mtg. in Sydney• ASEAN gaining too much traction?

• US not key player• Japan as proxy is peripheral player• China also peripheral but ‘soft-power’ helping it make deep

regional inroads• APEC as preferred vehicle

• Home-grown regionalism?

Realism v. Liberalism:APEC or ASEAN?

REALIST APPROACH

• Push dominant regional positions• APEC• US - Philippines • US - Japan

• Economic leverage• Currency revaluation• Trade litigation, WTO

• Political leverage• ASEAN Charter

‘illegitimate’ re: Myanmar human rights

• Highlight ‘lack of democracy’

LIBERAL APPROACH

• Utilize soft-power through secondary regional positions• Encourage formal Regional

Association• Appoint US Ambassador to

ASEAN

• Economic institutions• Asian Monetary Fund• Asian Monetary Unit (2020)

• Political institutions• Engage through existing

structures • Highlight

creation/modification of regional body and its stability

Realism v. Liberalism:APEC or ASEAN?

REALIST APPROACH

“…it would be possible to start building a coalition of democratic states in East Asia that would initially include the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and perhaps India, first as an integrated economic zone and perhaps later as a fledgling security pact. At the present juncture, Japan would not favor a new multilateral organization that included China, while most of the ASEAN countries would oppose a free-trade area that excluded it.”

~ Francis Fukuyama, America at The Crossroads

LIBERAL APPROACH

“The essence of liberal democratic politics is the construction of a rich, complex social order, not one dominated by a single idea…The goal is liberal democracy not as it was practiced in the nineteenth century but as it should be practiced in the twenty-first century.”

“China’s rulers believe that premature democratization in a country as vast, poor, and diverse as China will produce chaos.”

~Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom

“East Asia will likely be the next region to define its economic and political interests on a transnational basis, either with China at the helm of an East Asian community and Japan somewhat marginalized, or (less likely) with China and Japan managing to contrive some form of partnership…”

“In effect, a tri-partite division of the United States, the European Union, and East Asia is emerging, with India, Russia, Brazil and perhaps Japan preferring to act as swing states according to their national interests.”

~ Zbigniew Brzezinki, Second Chance

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