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ROADMAP FOR PEACE

Is peace possible in war? Is there a way to pacify populations that are tearing each other apart? How can society bounce back and definitively erase any factor of conflict? These questions mainly come from past and present experiences of pacification. The scientific study of peacebuilding, however, seems rather recent compared to past peace treaties, that often only involved sharing territories and resources.Pacification still remains a not well-known science, contrary to war.

1. Wars today

Peace is built depending on war. Peace processes must answer to the claims of the groups that took up arms and address the roots of the conflict. Wars today are different than the century-old ones or wars of independence. The Global Conflict Tracker website dresses the map of current conflicts. We can use it to grasp the nature of these wars. We must bear in mind that they follow several dynamics, but we have chosen to classify them according to their main nature.

• Territorial warsConflict of Nagorno-Karabakh; South China Sea tensions; War in Ukraine ; War between Israel and Palestine ; Conflict between Pakistan and India

• Ideology warsWar against the taliban  ; Conflict in North Korea  ; Sectarian tensions in Lebanon  ; terrorist activism in Pakistan  ; Terrorist activism in Egypt  ; Sectarian violence in Myanmar ; Terrorist activism in Russia  ; Conflict with the Uighurs in China ; War against ISIS ; Kurdish conflict

• Civil warsWar in Syria  ; War in South Sudan  ; War in Lybia  ; War in Yemen  ; Political crisis in Burundi  ; War in Central Africa ; War against drug cartels in Mexico

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Map of the current conflict around the globe (Global Conflict Tracker)

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• Transnational warsViolence in DRC and neighbouring countries; Violence in Mali and Sahel; Boko Haram; Al-Shabab

There are currently 26 major conflicts in the world. We notice that purely state-like wars are scarce. The vast majority of wars today concern more or less official and violent armed groups that directly fight among civilians. Conventional fights between soldiers of different countries become uncommon. Countries tend to less fight each other, while communities progressively become the main actors of war.This change of nature of war also influences (more or less depending on the country) the technics that are today used and taught among official army units or guerrilla groups.

The growing civilian nature of these conflicts, added to new technologies, means that the population is more concerned than ever by war. Thanks to technologies and communication, it is now possible for virtually anyone to monitor a conflict in real-time, to discuss with sympathizers living at the other end of the world, to share a video on how to make a bomb. The access to war has become democratized.

A more involved population also means new strategies of war that directly involve civilians. The FARC-EP use kidnappings to earn money and put pressure on society. They force farmers to grow coca leaves that will be used for their fruitful drug traffics. A lot of armed groups find their recruits among the population, sometimes by kidnapping them. There are many child soldiers today. Some estimate that there are 250 000 of them, among which 40% are girls. Women, just like men, take up arms, for political or personal reasons, or as a result of coercion. And obviously, atrocities occur on a day to day basis.

Conflicts that only oppose two parties are exceptional. Several groups, sometimes hundreds of them, often fight in these wars that regularly trespass borders. We can distinguish these wars depending on their religious, political economic, social, territorial or even cultural claims. Some are divided in various sub-branches. You can find here the list of the armed groups involved in the Syrian civil war to really grasp the complexity of this kind of conflict.

We will now conclude our short analysis on modern conflicts with Frank G. Hoffman from the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. He called current wars “hybrid”. Because their structures at the same times follows a hierarchy and can be dispatched across the globe. Because the armed groups that fight today have access to simple (but nonetheless efficient) weapons such as the classic AK-47 or more sophisticate non-conventional arms (chemical, bacteriological) or even missiles.

The actors can be state-like or rebels groups. The war can be fought locally and as well on the other side of the world. There has never been as many means of pressure and attack as now. Wars in the 21st century are complex, with many actors fighting for different reasons

2. Communicate

We will particularly focus on Colombia. Its peace process is seen by the international community as a real success despite the odds. The Colombian President even received a Nobel Peace Prize for his work in the peace process.

One of the main factors of success in this process has been communication. Several conjuncture elements made it possible. The FARC-EP, rather powerful, realized that they wouldn’t be able to reach their goals. The death of the founder Marulanda was also perceived as a symbolic event to start a new era in the history of the FARC-EP. At the same moment, the population, that would normally see peace negotiations as a crime of high treason towards the country, gave its support to the government to launch a new peace process..

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The odds were in their favour. But instead of meeting during a summit somewhere in the world for 2 or 3 intensive reunions, the parties began a true full-time project with a relatively busy agenda. The cycles of negotiations would last 11 serious days, followed by periods of consultation and reflexion. The groups ended up dedicating up to 6 to 15 months for each of the 5 main points of discussion.

All these exchanges allowed them to create a real dynamic far more ideal for peace: they decided to see these agreements not as end-of-war ones, but rather as a roadmap of transition. The goals then became more realistic than in past negotiations.

To call for a facilitator can be an option to help different parties grow closer. The interest of the international community for a peace process is also beneficial: the population feels that their situation is taken into account and that some countries can help the more vulnerable groups to participate. It is however essential that the peace process remains a local project with the minimum of external intervention.

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People expressing their doubts about another guerilla group of Colombia, the ELN, that also uses kidnapping.

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3. Represent

All the parties involved must be represented in the peace process. It is an essential element for it success. Even today, negotiations tend to involve only the main actors of a conflict.

We saw that dozens of groups are taking part to the Syrian war. Yes, all of them will have to participate to the pacification. Even more will have to obtain the possibility to participate. These often forgotten groups are just starting to make an appearance at the discussion table : female civilians, female soldiers, female rebels, child soldiers, victims, the wounded, the elder, local or indigenous people, leaders of all the communities…

The lack of implication of the civilian population to the construction of the Final Agreement in Colombia is one of the reasons why the “no” won in the referendum. As we have seen in our previous article, too many Colombians found the Agreement too lenient towards the FARC-EP.

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Signatures on the Final Agreement in 2012.

Every page is signed..

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We have nonetheless to recognise that some means were put in place in Colombia to allow several groups to express themselves and participate. A platform, Mesa de conversación (Table of negotiation), was created to inform as much as possible on the progress of the reconciliation process. The website allowed for a moment anyone to send suggestions on peacebuilding. The website https://www.mesadeconversaciones.com.co/estado-propuestas shows that more than 10,946 messages were sent. They were used for example during negotiations on the agrarian reform, on regions concerned by coca leaves culture or on victims.

Many forums and negotiation tables also took place across country, lasting several days and focusing on different issues. These events allowed to gather thousands of suggestions, of testimonies and opinions. Guides on how civilians can take part to the process, as well as reports and statements published during the negotiations were printed and distributed everywhere in Colombia to inform the population.

Some of the texts published in the website Mesa de conversación are available in Spanish, English, French and in one, or even two or three indigenous languages (Sikuani, Wayuu, Embera). These communities have been as affected by war as the rest of the population. Their inclusion in the peace process is thus normal.

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Signatures on the Final Agreement in 2012.

Every page is signed..

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The Philippino experience is another excellent example of integration. The 1968 massacre of Muslim soldiers preceded a bloody civil war where different groups – Muslims, Christians, the State, indigenous communities…- fought each other.The peace process began in 1997 and lasted no less than 17 years. In 2014, the parties signed an important peace agreement, the first major one in the world in more than a decade. All these years of negotiations allowed the participants to test and experiment on the long term many methods of pacification. This process is today praised by the international community for the implication of women (former fighters, victims, volunteers…) that rarely before had the opportunity to speak in a peace negotiation

Lesson learned: all the parties, even the oldest adversaries, must participate to the peace process. Every one must have the opportunity to express its grievances and the process must take them into account. The exclusion of one or several groups guaranties the failure of the process and may cause new uproars.

4. Disarmament, demobilization, reintegration (DDR)

During and after a conflict, weapons can be seen everywhere and anyone can possess one. It becomes necessary to start at disarmament program for unofficial armed groups in order to bring back to the police and to the army the legal use of coercion. The progressive disappearance of weapons also normalizes the daily life of civilians and reassures them. The United Nations and other organizations propose guides to help a country organize such program. The guidelines help identify suitable places for the rendition of arms and create a good communication strategy to convince the population to give them.

Money or resources can be offered in exchange for weapons as an incentive. The guides also explain how to properly register and stock all the weapons to avoid theft, and how to destroy them completely. In the Colombian case, the United Nations manages the weapons recuperation program that will later be transformed to build monuments. A period of grace is often used to give former fighters the temporary liberty to carry weapons on the road to the rendition facilities.

It is also often necessary to revise the legislation on weapons and on national security. A Security Sector Reform (SSR) usually happens at this stage. It consists of making sure that the security of the population is guaranteed. To do so, the personnel, the laws, the facilities or even the institutions linked to the security sector must keep up with the new standards. It becomes unavoidable to adapt the laws, build facilities like prisons, reconstruct the institutions and even train the personnel. This is a long but essential process that will provide the State with the capacity to guarantee the security of its citizens, while the later can trust the State in the management of their safety.

Former armed forces must also demobilized. After surrendering their weapons, their members must shut down the group and go back to the civil life. Of course, this transition is not easy. There are many profiles: men, women, child soldiers, the elder or the handicapped… The role they had during the conflict also influences their reintegration: fighters, carriers, messengers, slaves, managers… The demobilization/reintegration process is often long, because all these people and their family will be sheltered in adapted centres where they will receive a first assistance before entering a more concrete reinsertion program (formation, education, employment, housing…).

Colombia does not avoid this rule. The FARC-EP, just like any other armed group, have several minors in their ranks, maybe up to 30% of their forces. Girls would make no less than a third of the group. All of them take part to fights where it is not uncommon to see youngsters that are not even 16. Some receive a training to place landmines, others take care of the logistic of a camp.There are different reasons why minors are recruited: most of them are easily brainwashed and can be used as cannon fodder; a child is more discreet and looks more inoffensive than an adult. In the Colombian case, the FARC-EP explain that they even saw themselves forced to obtain young recruits because they are literate, unlike their adult counterparts. Some children join the group by conviction, a lot are kidnapped, others bought.

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All these children will have to reintegrate to society, brought back to their families. At the same time Colombia will have to determine the gravity of their actions and their degree of guilt.

5. Reconcile

To start a reconciliation process, rather than a peace one, emphasizes on the grievances that must be heard in order to find a common ground. This approach is not limited to the signature of a ceasefire, but focuses on the causes of war and on the factors that would improve the durability of peace. However, the victims may not forgive their torturers while the perpetuators could threaten to take up arms unless they are guaranteed some immunity. A balance must be found to satisfy the victims and to make the culprits take their responsibilities.

This point seems to be one of the reasons why Colombians rejected the Final Agreement during the October 2nd 2016 referendum. Just like we saw in our previous article, the population found the text too lenient. The people guilty of minor crimes would have simply beneficiated an amnesty. The ones who committed more serious crimes and that recognized their responsibility and helped establish the truth on the circumstances of their crimes would have been imprisoned from 5 to 8 years. The people that would have been found guilty but that didn’t recognized their responsibility would have been in prison for 15 to 20 years.

This system emphasizes on the truth. The priority of the government is mostly to understand what happened during the countless senseless attacks in villages and what happened to all these kidnapped people, even if the price to pay is to release the culprits in exchange for these precious information. But the population regrets that the FARC-EP didn’t show more signs of reconciliation by releasing some captives during the peace talks, and that the group preferred to wait the results of the referendum to act.

This work on memory is vital in order to make sure that the truth on the conflict is available to everyone. It is an essential element for the reconciliation. And this process can be long and take many forms. For instance, for the reconciliation between France and Germany, the history books in schools, mainly the chapters about World War II, have been the same since 2006.

A TV channel, well-known in France, ARTE (Association Relative à la Télévision Européenne – Association Relative to the European television) was created on paper in 1990. Its purpose: to broadcast cultural programs to bring European countries closer. This cooperation started with France and Germany and this, of course, is not insignificant.

Reconciliation relies, nevertheless, mainly on the feeling of justice. For instance, the FARC-EP promised not to recruit people under 17. The government appreciated this, but some Colombians didn’t like this because to them it is a way to legitimize the armed conflict. It appears indeed that it is ok to fight as long as the recruits are older than 17. The FARC-EP also obtained other profits in the rejected peace agreement. They would have received 5 seats at the Senate and as much at the Congress after the 2018 elections. We understand why the Colombians voted against this final agreement that recompenses, according to the words of web users, terrorists and murderers.

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We understand that marks of reconciliation can have different forms, and that there are many opportunities. The kidnapping issue in Colombia is sensitive. The FARC-EP have been using this method regularly for years to affect the population, to earn money and influence peace talks. We can see why the population asks more from the FARC-EP about the captives now that a ceasefire has been signed.

The State is also responsible. It is often necessary that State performs a series of reforms to rebuild the institutions and satisfy the grievances of the parties. It may have committed crimes and the trial of the culprits is crucial. The State may also have stocks of non-conventional weapons that it must destroy under the scrutiny of the international community. It must take care of its citizens, the victims, of the reintegration of former soldiers, bring child soldiers back to school. The consequences of war do not stop with a peace agreement, but last a long time.

In each conflict, certain kinds of crimes may have deeply affected the society. The reconciliation process must imperatively address these issues and allow the population to participate. The arrangements of the agreements would then meet the expectations of all the parties. Other methods also exist to stimulate the reconciliation process. To organize common projects can help normalize relations and spread a positive message. The Colombian government and the FARC-EP participated in a joint demining operation, which was perceived positively by the population.

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Young FARC-EP recruits. Photo: Juan Carlos Escobar

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6. When war ends

The euphoria of peace must not hide the fact that war will still manifest itself for a long time. Groups can still take up arms, just like the Taliban that are still active in many provinces of Afghanistan.

The legacy of war can paralyze a country years after a ceasefire. Landmines are excellent weapons that remain lethal for decades. Colombia is plagued by landmines.

It is 2nd on the list of the number of victims per landmines. France, that hasn’t known war for 70 years, still is a dangerous place in several regions. Along the border with Germany, there are still demining operations to detect mines buried a century ago. The teams on the field gather every year more than 20 tons of projectiles in these areas where a billion and half ammunition have been used during World War I. Their mission may seem pointless but it is actually vital: these ammunition stay lethal for decades. The community remembers the death of several children in 1981. How much time will take to completely clear these century-old ammunitions according to experts? 700 years.

We understand why peace does not erase the past. Social tensions can go on or fade away, weapons and ammunitions can keep on hurting or killing people for a long time. The consequences of war will not stop with the signature of a peace agreement nor with a reconciliation process. The necessary efforts to repair the stigmata of past conflicts represent, however, concrete and beneficial opportunities for the groups that once fought each other to normalize their relations.

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Conclusion

The rationalization of pacification, reconciliation, is recent. The bureaucratic and scientific management of these processes remains a new field where there is still much to test and to learn. Some experiences such as in the Philippines and in Colombia allow us to target several essential elements for the success of a reconciliation process. We have seen that communication and participation by all parties represent two fundamental pillars for peace.

How could we apply these principles in the Syrian conflict?Do other important elements exist that would guarantee peace?

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