Arlington Public SchoolsCapacity Planning Study – Final Report

MGT of America, Inc.December 3, 2009

Agenda for Tonight

What we did

What we learned

What we concluded

Your Team – Some Friendly Faces

Your Team –Dr. Bill Carnes – Partner-in-ChargeDan Schmidt – Project DirectorDr. Ed HumbleLynda FenderKaren GohlsenLani ColleySusan DrattloGreg Nichols

MGT of America has offices in:Olympia, WA

Sacramento, CAAustin, TX

Tallahassee, FLWashington, D.C.

Schmidt Associates – an Indiana-based facility planning,

design, and construction management firm

MGT and Schmidt have teamed for projects in:- St. Louis Public Schools, MO- State of Colorado- Rapid City Area Schools, SD- Fort Wayne Community Schools, IN- MSD of Decatur Township, IN- The Public Schools of Brookline, MA- Smyth County Public Schools, VA- Vigo County School Corporation, IN- Porter Township Schools, IN- Fresno Unified School District, CA- State of Wyoming- Citrus County Public Schools, FL- Boulder Public Schools, CO- Ann Arundel Public Schools, MD- Indianapolis Public Schools, IN

Let’s begin at the end…

YOU ARE CROWDED!

What we did…

It was a busy three months!

TaskWk of

9/7Wk of 9/14

Wk of 9/21

Wk of 9/28

Wk of 10/5

Wk of 10/12

Wk of 10/19

Wk of 10/26

Wk of 11/2

Wk of 11/9

Wk of 11/16

Wk of 11/23

Project Initiation Input Gathering

Facility Tours

Data Analysis

Framework Development Final Report Preparation

Over the last three months we…

Toured every school in the Division

Gained an understanding of the programs offered across the Division and in each building

Met with Division staff to review data and previous reports

Met with county officials to discuss growth in the county

Conducted a community meeting

Met with the Projections/Capacity Subcommittee of the Facilities Advisory Council

Counted the instructional spaces in each school

Calculated the capacity of each school as it is currently used

Validated the Division’s capacity calculation methodology

Studied demographic and enrollment trends

Prepared enrollment projections

Validated the Division’s enrollment projection methodology

Analyzed the current and projected utilization of each school and grade band

Identified possible solutions to crowding issues

Created a framework for making capacity decisions

Developed a Flash media presentation to explain the framework

Prepared the final report for your consideration

Over the last three months we also…

What we learned…

Your enrollment is expected to continue to increase.

WEIGHTING FACTORSModel Weight

Average Percentage Growth 13% Students Per Household 25% Cohort Survival 50% Linear Regression 13%

You are already crowded…

Model Grade Band Capacity 09 - 10 10 - 11 11 - 12 12 - 13 13 - 14 14 - 15 15 - 16 16 - 17 17 - 18 18 - 19 19 - 20

MGT Enrollment Projections

Elementary 10,738

11,454

11,791

12,009

12,074

12,149

11,982

11,854

11,869

11,920

12,015

Middle 3,920

4,318

4,414

4,578

4,688

4,831

4,978

4,952

4,825

4,669

4,627

High 5,575

5,979

6,080

6,154

6,210

6,340

6,474

6,578

6,686

6,931

6,980

Current Use Model

Elementary 11,166 96% 103% 106% 108% 108% 109% 107% 106% 106% 107% 108%

Middle 4,253 92% 102% 104% 108% 110% 114% 117% 116% 113% 110% 109%

High 5,371 104% 111% 113% 115% 116% 118% 121% 122% 124% 129% 130%

.…and you will continue to be crowded in the future.

What we concluded…

Your methodologies are sound.

Your capacity calculation methodology is similar to ours.

Your enrollment projection methodology is a standard and accepted practice across the country and has proven effective.

We see what you see…you are crowded.

Agenda for Tonight

What we did

What we learned

What we concluded

So…now what?

The Six Strategies(for addressing crowding issues)

Changing the delivery, location, or number of programs

Changing enrollment practices

Adding physical capacity

Changing grade configuration

Changing the master schedule

Increasing class size

MGT of America, Inc.

Thank you!