What should I do and why should I believe you?

Christopher J. Kramer

Argonne National Laboratory

Chicago, IL

• Us and Them!

• Risk and Crisis Communication

• We get dumb

• Believe me

What will we talk about?

Before I begin – a disclaimer…

Major flaw in social sciences

96% from US and Western Europe

7% of global population

We aren’t the world

How does the public view science – and how do scientists view the public

Us and Them

Television and Movies

People form opinions from what they see in entertainment.

“Cultivation”

Most people like science and think highly of scientists...

84% think science has positive effect on society

70% think scientists contribute to society’s well being

SOURCE: Pew Research Center

Unfortunately

the love isn’t

necessarily

shared...

Us and Them...

Most scientists think that the public is ignorant

SOURCE: Pew Research Center

They may have a point...

What the public doesn’t know...

SOURCE: National Science Foundation

38% don’t know the father’s gene decides the sex of baby

55% can’t explain why you see lightning before you hear thunder

28% don’t know that the Earth revolves around the Sun

49% don’t know that it takes the Earth one year to revolve around the Sun

SOURCE: National Science Foundation

What the public doesn’t know...

We don’t

know jack

about science!

It’s part of a larger problem...

How do we rate internationally?

1 China

2 Singapore

3 Japan

4 Estonia

5 Taiwan

6 Finland

7 Macao

8 Canada

9 Vietnam

10 South Korea

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/15/u-s-students-internationally-math-science/

11 Slovenia

12 New Zealand

13 Australia

14 Germany

15 Netherlands

16 UK

17 Switzerland

18 Ireland

19 Denmark

20 Belgium

21 Poland

22 Portugal

23 Norway

24 USA

25 France

26 Austria

27 Sweden

28 Spain

29 Czech

30 Latvia

31 Russian Fed

32 Luxembourg

33 Italy

34 Hungary

35 Croatia

36 Lithuania

37 Iceland

38 Israel

39 Malta

40 Slovakia

So how can you expect them to understand information about health, bio safety and security issues?

Some Definitions

Risk vs. Crisis

What is Risk?

The probability that a natural, technological, or civil threat to people, property, and the environment will occur

Godschalk, 1991

What is Risk?

Something bad mayhappen.

Risk Perception – it’s subjective

• Media coverage

• Human created

• Sense of control

• Familiarity

• Adult or child?

Preparing for Risk

People like “us” sharing information

Behaviors vs. science or impact

Repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat...

Three things motivate preparedness

Mileti, et all, UCLA

What is a Crisis?

Occurrence with potentially negative outcome affecting an organization, company or industry, as well as its publics, products, services, or good name

Fearn-Banks, 1996

Something bad hashappened

What is a Crisis?

We get dumb...During a crisis people are afraid -our ability to process and understand information is diminished

Keep it simple

Simple, direct messages, directions, actions to take

Repetition, repetition, repetition…

What people want to know…

Message Triangle

Crisis Information tips

• Be first with information

• Tell people what to expect

– Likely to happen

– Worst case?

• Give them something to do

Communicating Science in a Crisis

• Avoid jargon

• Clear, concise

• Make technical details clear –simple comparisons

• Don’t make promises that can’t be kept

People, Alerts and Warnings

• No panic

• People are “information hungry”

• Most effective when frequently repeated

• People want information from multiple sources

• “Milling”

• Instructions must make common sense

Mileti & Sorensen, 1990

But even if you do it all the right way I still might not believe you!

The Shortcut –

Heuristics

How we decide...

Lenses we see through

Religious

Political

Economic

Education

Biological

Generational

Cultural

Kahan, et. All, 2007

Reasoning is suffused with emotion

Positive or negative feelings about people, things, ideas arise much more rapidly than our conscious thoughts

Lenses we see through

Cognitive Bias

Individuals create their own “subjective social reality” from their perception

Often irrational

Information Fight or Flight

Encountering information that is contrary to our established world view invokes a response similar to facing physical danger

Cognitive Dissonance

Confirmation bias

People accept what they like at face value and subject what they don’t like to critical evaluation drawing undue support for their initial position

Lord, Ross, and Lepper 1979

Polarization of opinion

Lord, Ross, and Lepper 1979

People with opposing views interpret new information in a biased way, their views can move even further apart

To summarize…

• People don’t know much about science

• When people are afraid they do not process information well

• Even with all the facts they might still not believe you

6 Crisis Communication Failures

• Mixed messages from multiple “official” sources

• Information released late

• Not countering misinformation in real time

• Public power struggles and confusion

• Over reassuring

How to succeed

• Have a plan - practice• Be first and consistent• Understand they don’t know• Understand they are afraid• Be honest• Simplify• Communicate like they do• Listen• Keep information flowing• Repeat, repeat, repeat

Christopher J. Kramerckramer@anl.gov 630-252-5580www.anl.gov