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#MIGlobal Yield vs Duration Argentina Province Opportunity Issuer Debt to GRP % Fiscal Balance GRP Buenos Aires 7.5% -1.4% La Rioja 11.5% 1.2% Argentina 50.7% -7.4% Source: Bloomberg; Gross Regional Product (GRP) is the gross value of all goods and services produced inside the province. The sum of all province GRP is equal to the Gross Domestic Product of the entire country. ARG ‘19 ARG ‘22 ARG ‘26 ARG ‘28 Province of Buenos Aires '24 La Rioja '25 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Yield Duration Statistics

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Page 1: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

#MIGlobal

Yield vs Duration

Argentina Province Opportunity

Issuer Debt to GRP %Fiscal

Balance GRP

Buenos Aires 7.5% -1.4%

La Rioja 11.5% 1.2%

Argentina 50.7% -7.4%

Source: Bloomberg; Gross Regional Product (GRP) is the gross value of all goods and services produced

inside the province. The sum of all province GRP is equal to the Gross Domestic Product of the entire country.

ARG ‘19

ARG ‘22

ARG ‘26ARG ‘28Province of

Buenos Aires '24

La Rioja '25

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Yield

Duration

Statistics

Page 2: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net Flows to Active and Passive Funds

US$ Billions

Note: Estimated net flows to U.S. open-end funds.Sources: Morningstar.

Passively managed

Actively managed

Page 3: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

#MIGlobal

Enhancements

Risk Retention Compliant

Control of Costs

Warehouse Capacity

Optimizing Value in Secondary

Value of Call Feature

Results: GLM CLO 1

Source: GoldenTree Asset Management

Risk Retention Opportunities

AAAs priced at tightest level in years

Portfolio over 90% ramped at pricing

Syndicate of banks distributed debt

GLM retained BB, B and Equity

Established standardized documentation

Page 4: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

#MIGlobal

HY Market Issuance by Sector Update

The market for Energy new issues, which was shutdown at this time last year, appears to be fully functional at this point with $11bn issued so far in 2017, tracking 2014/15.

Source: S&P LCD

4% 4%5% 5% 5%

6%7% 7%

10% 10%11%

12%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

% o

f H

igh

Yie

ld Is

suan

ce

Page 5: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

Currency Returns 2017 YTD

-2%

-1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

7%

10%

-5% 5% 15%

Canadian DollarNew Zealand Dollar

Norwegian KroneSwiss Franc

Brazilian RealSouth African Rand

Swedish KronaDanish Krone

Singapore DollarEuro

Australian DollarJapanese Yen

British PoundSouth Korean Won

Taiwanese DollarMexican Peso

Source: Bloomberg (4/28/2017).

Percent, as appreciation versus U.S. Dollar

Page 6: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

#MIGlobal

Client Challenges in a Complex and

Fast Changing World

deregulation

china

clash of civilisations

populism

trump

unconventional monetary policies

fiat currencies

geopolitics

global

trade

brexit

volatility

artificial intelligence/

robotics

rates

south china sea

russia

saudi arabia

iranoil

protectionism

inflation

trump foreign and trade policies

islamic state

fiscal policies

trade barrierstechnology

eu

le penmacron

north koreaopec

For illustrative purposes only.

Page 7: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

#MIGlobal

Trust Preferred CDOs (TruPS)

Source: GoldenTree Asset Management as of April 18, 2017

Rating A1 / BB

Price $53.0

Coupon 3mL + 40bps

Discount Margin 568 bps

Yield To Maturity 8.3%

Margin of Safety (Default Breakeven) 52%

Page 8: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

Sovereign Debt Defaults

Sources: This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises, Carmen M. Reinhart / Milken Institute

• 1828

• 1898

• 1902

• 1914

• 1931

• 1937

• 1961

• 1964

• 1983

• 1826

• 1868

• 1894

• 1900

• 1906

• 1914

• 1929

• 1982

• 1999

• 2008

•1876

•1915

•1931

•1940

•1959

•1965

•1978

•1982

•2000

• 1826

• 1848

• 1860

• 1865

• 1892

• 1898

• 1983

• 1990

• 1995

• 1998

• 2004

Brazil Ecuador

• 1839

• 1885

• 1917

• 1918

• 1947

• 1957

• 1991

• 1998

Russia

•1826

•1843

•1860

•1894

•1932

•2011

•2015

Greece Turkey Venezuela

• 1982

• 1986

• 1992

• 2001

• 2004

Nigeria

Page 9: Argentina Province Opportunity - Milken Instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Events/... · Risk Retention Compliant Control of Costs Warehouse Capacity Optimizing Value in

China Selling US Treasuries

China Foreign Reserve

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5U

SD t

rill

ion

China Holdings of US Treasuries

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2011 2013 2015 2017

USD

tri

llio

nSource: Bloomberg as at 28 February 2017.