argentina province opportunity - milken instituteassets1c.milkeninstitute.org/assets/events/... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
#MIGlobal
Yield vs Duration
Argentina Province Opportunity
Issuer Debt to GRP %Fiscal
Balance GRP
Buenos Aires 7.5% -1.4%
La Rioja 11.5% 1.2%
Argentina 50.7% -7.4%
Source: Bloomberg; Gross Regional Product (GRP) is the gross value of all goods and services produced
inside the province. The sum of all province GRP is equal to the Gross Domestic Product of the entire country.
ARG ‘19
ARG ‘22
ARG ‘26ARG ‘28Province of
Buenos Aires '24
La Rioja '25
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yield
Duration
Statistics
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Flows to Active and Passive Funds
US$ Billions
Note: Estimated net flows to U.S. open-end funds.Sources: Morningstar.
Passively managed
Actively managed
#MIGlobal
Enhancements
Risk Retention Compliant
Control of Costs
Warehouse Capacity
Optimizing Value in Secondary
Value of Call Feature
Results: GLM CLO 1
Source: GoldenTree Asset Management
Risk Retention Opportunities
AAAs priced at tightest level in years
Portfolio over 90% ramped at pricing
Syndicate of banks distributed debt
GLM retained BB, B and Equity
Established standardized documentation
#MIGlobal
HY Market Issuance by Sector Update
The market for Energy new issues, which was shutdown at this time last year, appears to be fully functional at this point with $11bn issued so far in 2017, tracking 2014/15.
Source: S&P LCD
4% 4%5% 5% 5%
6%7% 7%
10% 10%11%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
% o
f H
igh
Yie
ld Is
suan
ce
Currency Returns 2017 YTD
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
5%
6%
7%
10%
-5% 5% 15%
Canadian DollarNew Zealand Dollar
Norwegian KroneSwiss Franc
Brazilian RealSouth African Rand
Swedish KronaDanish Krone
Singapore DollarEuro
Australian DollarJapanese Yen
British PoundSouth Korean Won
Taiwanese DollarMexican Peso
Source: Bloomberg (4/28/2017).
Percent, as appreciation versus U.S. Dollar
#MIGlobal
Client Challenges in a Complex and
Fast Changing World
deregulation
china
clash of civilisations
populism
trump
unconventional monetary policies
fiat currencies
geopolitics
global
trade
brexit
volatility
artificial intelligence/
robotics
rates
south china sea
russia
saudi arabia
iranoil
protectionism
inflation
trump foreign and trade policies
islamic state
fiscal policies
trade barrierstechnology
eu
le penmacron
north koreaopec
For illustrative purposes only.
#MIGlobal
Trust Preferred CDOs (TruPS)
Source: GoldenTree Asset Management as of April 18, 2017
Rating A1 / BB
Price $53.0
Coupon 3mL + 40bps
Discount Margin 568 bps
Yield To Maturity 8.3%
Margin of Safety (Default Breakeven) 52%
Sovereign Debt Defaults
Sources: This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises, Carmen M. Reinhart / Milken Institute
• 1828
• 1898
• 1902
• 1914
• 1931
• 1937
• 1961
• 1964
• 1983
• 1826
• 1868
• 1894
• 1900
• 1906
• 1914
• 1929
• 1982
• 1999
• 2008
•1876
•1915
•1931
•1940
•1959
•1965
•1978
•1982
•2000
• 1826
• 1848
• 1860
• 1865
• 1892
• 1898
• 1983
• 1990
• 1995
• 1998
• 2004
Brazil Ecuador
• 1839
• 1885
• 1917
• 1918
• 1947
• 1957
• 1991
• 1998
Russia
•1826
•1843
•1860
•1894
•1932
•2011
•2015
Greece Turkey Venezuela
• 1982
• 1986
• 1992
• 2001
• 2004
Nigeria
China Selling US Treasuries
China Foreign Reserve
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5U
SD t
rill
ion
China Holdings of US Treasuries
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2011 2013 2015 2017
USD
tri
llio
nSource: Bloomberg as at 28 February 2017.