are you a skeptic

Are you a SKEPTIC?Some thoughts on why or how…

“Under no circumstances is this

presentation meant to hurt anyone's feelings. If I offend you in any

way, please accept my sincere apology.”

Sound Advice: “Be skeptical of the skeptic.” Phil Plante

Philosopher, Amateur Astronomer and all round Good Guy

“It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a

thought without accepting it.”Aristotle, Greek

Philosopher384 – 322 BCE

“I cannot teach anybody anything, I can only make them

think.”Socrates, Greek

Philosopher469 – 399 BCE

Skeptics' Guide to the Universe - March 14, 2015 Podcast

Science or Fiction (a warmup)…

Item #1 - A new analysis finds that the Milky Way is 50% larger than previous estimates, and has a rippled or corrugated shape.

Item #2 - Recent estimates indicate that the Milky Way contains more stars than the rest of the local group combined.

Item #3 Astronomers have discovered nine new dwarf galaxies orbiting the Milky Way.

Skeptics' Guide to the Universe - March 14, 2015 Podcast

Science or Fiction (a warmup)…

Item #1 - A new analysis finds that the Milky Way is 50% larger than previous estimates, and has a rippled or corrugated shape.

Item #2 - Recent estimates indicate that the Milky Way contains more stars than the rest of the local group combined.

Item #3 - Astronomers have discovered nine new dwarf galaxies orbiting the Milky Way.

Science of Fiction - Item #1

Science of Fiction - Item #3University of Cambridge

10 Mar 2015

Welcome to the neighborhood:

new dwarf galaxies

discovered in orbit around

the Milky Way

Tie-breaker

How many supernovas were discovered in 2014?

Answer: 137 (2014A – 2014EG)

And the Winner is…

The power of COPPER, how and why…

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For more wisdom, visit: www.wisdomofchopra.com/

Why Critical Thinking?

The Problem Everyone thinks; it is our nature to do so. But much of our thinking, left to itself, is biased, distorted, partial, uninformed or down-right prejudiced. Yet the quality of our life and that of what we produce, make, or build depends precisely on the quality of our thought. Shoddy thinking is costly, both in money and in quality of life. Excellence in thought, however, must be systematically cultivated. Richard Paul and Linda Elder, The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, Foundation for

Critical Thinking Press, 2008)

What is Critical Thinking?

Understand the logical connections between ideas.

Identify, construct and evaluate arguments. Detect inconsistencies and common mistakes in

reasoning. Solve problems systematically. Identify the relevance and importance of ideas. Reflect on the justification of one's own beliefs

and values. Critical Thinking Web

Critical thinking is the ability to think clearly and rationally. It includes the ability to engage in reflective and independent thinking. Someone with critical thinking skills is able to do the following:

Argumentative

Critical thinking should not be confused with being argumentative or being critical of other people.

Although critical thinking skills can be used in exposing fallacies and bad reasoning, critical thinking can also play an important role in cooperative reasoning and constructive tasks.

Critical thinking can help us acquire knowledge, improve our theories, and strengthen arguments.

We can use critical thinking to enhance work processes and improve social institutions.

Critical Thinking Web

The Fine Art of Baloney Detection

Marketing and Advertising Politics News Food and Nutrition Medical Treatment Scientific Findings Pseudoscience

Carl Sagan, The Demon - Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Use your Critical Thinking skills to evaluate:

"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary

evidence".Carl Sagan, Astronomer 1934 - 1996

“Education is not the learning of facts, but

the training of the mind to think.”

Albert Einstein1879 - 1955

Marketing, Marketing and more Marketing…

30 years ago the average city dweller saw up to 2,000 advertising messages per day. Today,

this number has soared to over 5,000…Yankelovich Marketing and New York Times (2007)

This figure has been highly scrutinized, though estimates range from a low of 1,200 to a high of 5,000.

Complaints about advertising clutter date back at least as far as 1759, when Samuel Johnson wrote, “Advertisements are now so numerous that they are very negligently perused, and it is therefore become necessary to gain attention by magnificence of promises, and by

eloquence sometimes sublime and sometimes pathetic.”

Marketing Everywhere…

Supermarket eggs have been stamped with your favorite CBS shows.

Airline trays bear the Rolex logo. Walt Disney marketed a children's DVD on

pediatricians examination tables. In San Francisco “Got Milk” billboards emitted

a chocolate chip cookie odor at bus stops. Name brand items are placed in TV shows

and movies. Targeted Internet Ads on your favorite web

page.

Politics…

Believe it or not; Politicians sometimes do not tell the truth…

PolitiFact is an independent fact-checking journalism website aimed at bringing you the truth in politics. PolitiFact's reporters and editors fact-check statements from the White House, Congress, candidates, advocacy groups and more, rating claims for accuracy on our Truth-O-Meter.

PolitiFact.com

News

Pick your favorite; Almost every news source has some form of BIAS…

News – Remember these Guys?Recently, several prominent news anchors have been under fire…

News – My Personal Favorites

Do you know this woman?

Vani Hari a.k.a. Food Babe American author and

activist. Degree in Computer

Science (University of North Carolina at Charlotte).

Food Babe Blog with 52 million views in 2014 (per Hari).

The Food Babe

In 2011 she claimed that Chick-fil-A sandwiches were dangerous. They responded in 2013 by removing dyes, corn syrup and TBHQ from their products.

In 2014 she launched a change.org campaign asking Subway to remove azodicarbonamide from their sandwich bread. Claiming that azodicarbonamide is bad, since it can also be found in Yoga Mats. Subway changed its recipe.

The Food Babe

In 2014, she launched another campaign on change.org asking Kraft Foods to remove FD&C yellow #5 and #6 from their Mac and Cheese. Kraft Foods reformulated their classic Mac and Cheese last week, removing these dyes.

In June of 2014, she posted a petition asking major beer brewers to list the ingredients of their products, many complied.

Scientists, Nutritionists and Dietitians are taking notice…

“she gets the science wrong” and she “oversold dangers” and “misreads

studies…”

Aaron Huertas Science Communication Officer

Union of Concerned Scientists


“Hari does not have any sort of degree in food science or chemistry, but that does not seem to be an

impediment when it comes to telling us that “we are getting conned by cheap, toxic chocolate” or that our

beer is chock full of “shocking ingredients” or that “butter is secretly ruining our health.”

“It isn’t hard to deconstruct her arguments, most of them are so silly. Her basic tenet is guilt by association.”

Dr. Joe SchwarczOffice for Science in Society

McGill University


“She takes facts that may be technically true, but then she runs

with it and goes down roads that are inappropriate and frankly misleading,” he says. “There’s facts there, but then

they’re misinterpreted.”

Dr. William SchaffnerChair of the Department of Preventive Medicine

Vanderbilt University


Is The Food Babe A Fearmonger? Scientists Are Speaking Out, NPR

Evolution of Food Babe: From misguided consumer advocate to crude bully, Genetic Literacy Project

Vani Hari, a.k.a. “The Food Babe,” finally responds to critics, David Gorski

Letter to the Food Babe by students in training at the IFT Student Association posted on Science Meets Food

Anti-GMO activist Food Babe tries to do good things but arguments are ‘silly’, Charlotte Observer

FOOD BABE: POT, MEET KETTLE, The Farmer’s Daughter

Chemicals are Dangerous?

Do you know this man?

Mehmet Oz a.k.a. Dr. Oz Cardiothoracic Surgeon,

author, and television personality.

Harvard University (A.B.)University of Pennsylvania (M.D., M.B.A.).

Dr. Oz Show (~3.5 million viewers).

The Dr. Oz Show

Vice-Chair and Professor of Surgery at Columbia University.

Director Cardiovascular Institute and Complementary Medicine Program at New York Presbyterian Hospital.

Achieved fame in 2009 on the Oprah Winfrey Show.

Forbes magazine’s Most Influential Celebrity list (2010-2014), Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People and Esquire magazine’s 75 Most Influential People of the 21st Century.

Dr. Oz has promoted…

Homeopathy Weight Loss

Products Reiki Acupuncture Psychics (John

Edward and Theresa Caputo)

Food (Nutrition)

Detoxification GMO Faith Healing Essential Oils Supplements (of

every variety) Anti-Aging

everything

Did I mention Weight Loss Products?

Product Dr. Oz said what…Forskolin “Lightning in a bottle” and “a miracle flower.”Raspberry Ketones “A number one miracle in a bottle to burn your

fat.”Yakon Syrup “A metabolism game-changer.”Saffron Extract “Miracle appetite suppressant.”

Additional Miracle Fat Fighting Products Include: Sea Buckthorn, Capsiberry, Garcinia Cambogia, African Mango Seed, and Green Coffee Bean extract.

Any product that is mentioned on Dr. Oz’s show is almost guaranteed to be a mega-success! A phenomenon now

known as “the Oz effect.”

Dr. Oz goes to Washington

On June 17th, 2014 Dr. Mehmet C. Oz testified on Capitol Hill before a Senate subcommittee hearing on

protecting consumers from false and deceptive advertising of weight loss products.

Dr. Oz goes to WashingtonSenator McCaskill:

“I can’t figure this out, Dr. Oz. I don’t get why you need to say this stuff when you know it’s not true,” When you have this amazing megaphone, why would you cheapen your show?”

Dr. Oz: “I actually do personally believe in the items I

talk about on the show. I passionately study them. I recognize that oftentimes they don’t have the scientific muster to present as fact. Nevertheless, I would give my audience the same advice I give my family, and I have given my family these products.”

More Trouble for Dr. Oz…

In December of 2014 the British Medical Journal released a Media Study titled:

Televised medical talk shows—what they recommend and the evidence to

support their recommendations: a prospective observational study


BMI Media Study – The basics

The purpose of this study was to determine quality of health recommendations and claims made on popular medical talk shows. Investigators randomly selected 40 episodes each of The Dr. Oz Show and The Doctors from 2013.

The researchers identified and evaluated all recommendations made on each program. A group of experienced evidence reviewers independently searched for, and evaluated as a team, evidence to support 80 randomly selected recommendations from each show.


Of the 80 randomly selected recommendations made by the Dr. Oz show:

46% were supported by evidence.15% contradicted found evidence.

39% no evidence was found.

Overall, Believable or somewhat believable evidence supported 33% of the

recommendations on The Dr Oz Show

The Results were TROUBLING

The Doctors faired only slightly better…

Dr. Oz – Just In

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the celebrity TV host, vigorously defended the medical advice he dispenses on his show, striking back on Thursday against physicians who called his faculty position at Columbia University “unacceptable” in an email to the school last week.

During an episode of his syndicated daytime talk program, “The Dr. Oz Show,” that was broadcast on Thursday, Dr. Oz said his critics were attacking his freedom of speech.

“I vow to you right here and right now, we will not be silenced,” he said.Dr. Oz, who is the vice chairman of Columbia’s surgery department, also defended the advice he shares on his show.

The New York Times, Dr. Oz Responds to Critics on His Television ShowBy Sydney Ember – April 23, 2015

Dr. Oz – Just In

Last week, 10 doctors sent an email to the university contending that Dr. Oz promoted “quack treatments and cures in the interest of personal financial gain.”

Dr. Oz attacked the credibility of the doctors who criticized him.The show said that several of the doctors who signed the email “have big ties to big industry.” The show specifically highlighted Dr. Henry I. Miller, a fellow in scientific philosophy and public policy at the Hoover Institution, which is part of Stanford University, who sent the email, for his vocal support of genetically modified foods and connection to the American Council on Science and Health, a pro-industry lobbying group.

The New York Times, Dr. Oz Responds to Critics on His Television ShowBy Sydney Ember – April 23, 2015

Dr. Oz – A Typical Response

Dr. Oz attacked the credibility of the doctors who criticized him.

Science and Science Reporting

In 1989, the number of newspapers with a weekly science

section was 95. By January of 2013, that number was down to

just 13.

This makes both Albert and I very

SAD…

Columbia Journalism Review

“Science is more than a body of knowledge. It is a way of thinking, a

way of skeptically interrogating the

universe.”Carl Sagan, Astronomer 1934 - 1996

The Moder

n Scienc

e News Cycle

“The problem in society is not kids not knowing science. The problem is adults not knowing

science. They outnumber kids 5 to 1, they wield power, they write legislation. When you have scientifically illiterate

adults, you have undermined the very fabric of what makes a

nation wealthy and strong.”Neil deGrasse Tyson

Science and Science ReportingFalse Balance – A big problem without

trained Scientific JournalistsFalse balance, also referred to as false equivalence, is a real or perceived media bias, where journalists present an issue as being more balanced between opposing viewpoints than the evidence actually supports. Journalists may present evidence and arguments out of proportion to the actual evidence for each side.

• Man-made vs. Natural Climate Change• Evolution vs. Intelligent Design

• Vaccines vs. Autism

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read

and write, but those who cannot learn,

unlearn, and relearn.”Alvin Toffler

Sensational Science Shows

Alien Encounters The Definitive Guide to

Aliens NASA’s Unexplained Files Shark Week UFO Europe, Untold

Stories Ghost Hunters A Haunting Finding Bigfoot (Larry’s

Favorite)

Sensational Science ShowsShark Week on the Discovery Science Channel was called to the table (by many marine biologists) for

outright lying…“The Monster Shark Lives featured actors playing

scientists, photo shopped pictures, and fake digital video. At no point in the

documentary did it mention that it was fictional, causing

many viewers to believe that these animals are still

alive.”

David Shiffman, Slate Magazine

Pseudoscience… to name a few!

Bigfoot / Chupacabra (Larry’s Favorite)

Health Bracelets (Really)

The Mayan Calendar

Alien Abduction ESP Bermuda

Triangle Psychic Anything

Exorcists Faith Healing Face of Mars Flat Earth Moon Landing

Conspiracy Perpetual

Motion Conversion

Therapy Feng Shui

Hypnosis Polygraph Test Chiropractic Crystal Healing Reflexology Therapeutic

Touch Crop Circles Dowsing Quantum

Mysticism Acupuncture

REALLY, all of these items are BIG BUSINESS…

“I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the

United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing

industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set

their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our

critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we

slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...”

Carl Sagan, Astronomer

The Demon-haunted World

Critical ThinkingA primer

Cognitive Bias – We all do it!A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an

illogical fashion.

WikipediaA simpler definition…

A cognitive bias is a common tendency to acquire and process information by

filtering it through one's own likes, dislikes, and experiences.

Cognitive Bias – Many types…

Confirmation Bias

In-group Bias Status Quo Bias Negativity Bias Framing Bias Correspondence

Bias

Gambler’s Fallacy

Post-Purchase Rationalization

Neglecting Probability

Observational Selection Bias

Nearly 100 Biases have been observed and defined.

Confirmation Bias

Definition - The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories

Examples

A student who is going to write a research paper may primarily search for information that would confirm his or her beliefs. The student may fail to search for or fully consider information that is inconsistent with his or her beliefs.

A reporter who is writing an article on an important issue may only interview experts that support her or his views on the issue.

In-group Bias

Definition - In-group bias, sometimes known as in-group–out-group bias or in-group favoritism, refers to a pattern of favoring members of one's in-group over out-group members. Examples

When you play on an intramural softball team that meets once a week, you are part of that softball team's in-group.

It can be something on a much more grand scale like, like the situation between religious groups in Ireland.

Status-Quo Bias

Definition - Status quo bias is a preference for the current state of affairs. The current baseline (or status quo) is taken as a reference point, and any change from that baseline is perceived as a loss.Examples

Status-Quo Bias often plays a role in the field of economics, political science, sociology and psychology.

Negativity Bias

Definition - The negativity bias refers to the notion that, even when of equal intensity, things of a more negative nature (e.g. unpleasant thoughts, emotions, or social interactions) have a greater effect on one's psychological state and processes than do neutral or positive things. Example

Brand Dilution – We tend to tell everyone of a bad purchasing experience.

Framing Bias

Definition – A framing bias is a way to spin an argument in favor of a certain side before even stating one’s case.

Example

Let’s say you need a surgical procedure and the surgeon tells you there is a 98% survival rate with the procedure. What if she told you there was a 2% mortality rate? Would you feel the same way?

Product can have 4% fat or be 96% fat-free.

Correspondence Bias

Definition –Correspondence Bias, also known as the Fundamental attribution error (FAE), is people's tendency to place an undue emphasis on internal characteristics to explain someone else's behavior in a given situation, rather than considering external factors.

Example

If someone cuts in front of you in line, your immediate reaction is, "This person is a complete jerk!" But in

reality, maybe he never cuts into lines and is doing it this time (miss a plane, sick relative).

What is a Logical Argument

“A group of statements, in which some of them (the premises) are intended to support another statement (the conclusion)”

The Skeptics Guide to the Universe

Structure of a Logical Argument

Whether we are consciously aware of it or not, our arguments all follow a

certain basic structure. They begin with one or more premises, which are facts that the argument takes for granted as the starting point. Then a principle of logic is applied in order to come to a

conclusion.


Two Types of Logical ArgumentsDeductive Argument – A deductive argument is an argument whose conclusion necessarily follows from the truth of the premises.

Inductive Argument - An inductive argument is an argument that is intended to provide “probabilistic support” for its conclusion, but not logically conclusive support for its conclusion.

Deductive Arguments

“A deductive argument is an argument whose conclusion necessarily from the truth of the premises”

A deductive argument is valid if it is successful in providing logical support for its conclusion.

A “valid” deductive argument is such that if all of the premises are true, it is guaranteed that the conclusion must be true. This means that is all of the premises are true, there is no possible way that the conclusion could be false.

We say that a deductive argument is invalid if the truth of the premise does not guarantee that the conclusion must be true.

Deductive Arguments

In logic, we do not use the word “valid” as a synonym for true. It is entirely possible for a valid deductive to be “false”. To claim that your argument is a “deductively valid argument” only means that the argument has necessary logical structure.

Logical structure doesn’t refer to the actual contents of an argument, but to its construction.

Sample Deductive Argument

This structure is often illustrated symbolically with the following

example:


Premise1: If A = B,Premise2: and B = C,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that A = C

Sample Deductive Arguments


Premise 1: All politicians are liars,Premise 2: Jim is a politician,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that Jim is a liar.

Premise 1: All men are mortal,Premise 2: Socrates is a man,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that Socrates is mortal.

Sample Deductive Invalid Arguments

Premise 1: If Socrates has no teeth, then he is mortal,Premise 2: Socrates is mortal,Conclusion: Therefore: Socrates has no teeth.

The conclusion does not logically follow from the premises. Each of these arguments attempted to make a valid deductive

argument, but the attempt failed. Regardless of the order of the premises, these arguments

would be invalid.

Sample Deductive Invalid Arguments

Premise 1: All politicians are liars,Premise 2: All used car salesman are liars,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that all used car salesmen are politicians.

The conclusion does not logically follow from the premises. Each of these arguments attempted to make a valid deductive

argument, but the attempt failed. Regardless of the order of the premises, these arguments

would be invalid.

Inductive Arguments

An inductive argument is an argument that is intended to provide “probabilistic support” for its conclusion, but not logically conclusive support for its conclusion.

An inductive argument is such that if all of its premises are true, the conclusion is possibly true or highly likely to be true, but not “necessarily” true.

Inductive Arguments

If an inductive argument succeeds in providing probable (but not logically necessary) support for its conclusion, then it is said to be “strong.” If an inductive argument fails to provide good support for its conclusion, we call it “weak”.

Inductive Arguments

The argumentative structure of an inductively strong argument does not guarantee that if all of the premises are true, the conclusion must necessarily be true. However, if the conclusion is “highly probable” then it should be generally accepted.

Due to the fact that the truth of an inductive argument’s cannot be guaranteed by the truth of its premises, inductive arguments are not “truth preserving.”

Sample “Strong” Inductive Argument

Premise 1: Most dogs have fleas,Premise 2: Bowser is a dog,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that Bowser probably has fleas.

Be aware that it is entirely possible for all the premises to be true in the above inductive argument,

and for the conclusion to be false.

After all, just because most dogs have fleas, doesn’t mean that Bowser does, because it is possible that he

is one of the dogs that does not have fleas.

Sample Deductively Valid (but False) Argument

Premise 1: All pigs can fly,Premise 2: Charles is a pig,Conclusion: Therefore it follows that Charles can fly.

A good deductive argument must have true premises. We say that a deductively valid argument with true premises is: “sound.”

Deductively “Valid” Arguments CAN HAVE…

False Premises and a False Conclusion.

Premise 1: All fish have wings,Premise 2: All fish are dogs,Conclusion: Therefore all dogs have wings.

False Premises and a True conclusion.

True Premises and a True Conclusion.

What is a Logical Fallacy…

Fallacies are common errors in reasoning that will undermine the logic of your argument. Fallacies can be either

illegitimate arguments or irrelevant points, and are often identified because they lack

evidence that supports their claim.

Even when all of the premises of an argument are reliably true, the argument

may still be invalid if the logic employed is not legitimate – a so-called logical fallacy.

Appeal to Emotion

You attempted to manipulate an emotional response in place of a valid or compelling argument.

Appeals to emotion include appeals to fear, envy, hatred, pity, pride, and more. It's important to note that sometimes a logically coherent argument may inspire emotion or have an emotional aspect, but the problem and fallacy occurs when emotion is used instead of a logical argument.

Example: Luke didn't want to eat his sheep's brains with chopped liver and Brussels sprouts, but his father told him to think about the poor, starving children in a third world country who weren't fortunate enough to have any food at all.

Strawman

You misrepresented someone's argument to make it easier to attack.

By exaggerating, misrepresenting, or just completely fabricating someone's argument, it's much easier to present your own position as being reasonable, but this kind of dishonesty serves to undermine honest rational debate.

Example: After Will said that we should put more money into health and education, Warren responded by saying that he was surprised that Will hates our country so much that he wants to leave it defenseless by cutting military spending.

Slippery Slope

You said that if we allow A to happen, then Z will eventually happen too, therefore A should not happen.

The problem with this reasoning is that it avoids engaging with the issue at hand, and instead shifts attention to extreme hypotheticals. Because no proof is presented to show that such extreme hypotheticals will in fact occur, this fallacy has the form of an appeal to emotion fallacy by leveraging fear. In effect the argument at hand is unfairly tainted by unsubstantiated conjecture.

Example: Colin Closet asserts that if we allow same-sex couples to marry, then the next thing we know we'll be allowing people to marry their parents, their cars and even monkeys.

Ad Hominem

You attacked your opponent's character or personal traits in an attempt to undermine their argument.

Ad hominem attacks can take the form of overtly attacking somebody, or more subtly casting doubt on their character or personal attributes as a way to discredit their argument. The result of an ad hom attack can be to undermine someone's case without actually having to make an argument.

Example: After Sally presents an eloquent and compelling case for a more equitable taxation system, Sam asks the audience whether we should believe anything from a woman who isn't married, was once arrested, and smells a bit weird.

Special Pleading

You moved the goalposts or made up an exception when your claim was shown to be false.

A person applies standards, principles, rules, etc. to others while taking herself (or those she has a special interest in) to be exempt, without providing adequate justification for the exemption.

Example: Edward Johns claimed to be psychic, but when his 'abilities' were tested under proper scientific conditions, they magically disappeared. Edward explained this saying that one had to have faith in his abilities for them to work.

Gambler’s Fallacy

You said that 'runs' occur to statistically independent phenomena such as roulette wheel spins.

This commonly believed fallacy can be said to have helped create an entire city in the desert of Nevada USA. Though the overall odds of a 'big run' happening may be low, each spin of the wheel is itself entirely independent from the last. So whilst there may be a very small chance that heads will come up 20 times in a row if you flip a coin, the chances of heads coming up on each individual flip remain 50/50, and aren't influenced by what happened before.

Appeal to Authority

You said that because an authority thinks something, it must therefore be true.

It's important to note that this fallacy should not be used to dismiss the claims of experts, or scientific consensus. Appeals to authority are not valid arguments, but nor is it reasonable to disregard the claims of experts who have a demonstrated depth of knowledge unless one has a similar level of understanding and/or access to empirical evidence.

Example: Not able to defend his position that evolution 'isn't true' Bob says that he knows a scientist who also questions evolution (and presumably isn't a primate).

No True Scotsman

You made what could be called an appeal to purity as a way to dismiss relevant criticisms or flaws of your argument.

In this form of faulty reasoning one's belief is rendered unfalsifiable because no matter how compelling the evidence is, one simply shifts the goalposts so that it wouldn't apply to a supposedly 'true' example. This kind of post-rationalization is a way of avoiding valid criticisms of one's argument.

Example: Angus declares that Scotsmen do not put sugar on their porridge, to which Lachlan points out that he is a Scotsman and puts sugar on his porridge. Furious, like a true Scot, Angus yells that no true Scotsman sugars his porridge.

Logical Fallacy definitions and examples were

contributed by “thou shalt not commit logical fallacies”

Visit them at www.yourlogicalfallacyis.com

So many Fallacies, So Little Time…

ad hominem appeal to ignorance (argumentum ex silentio argument from omniscience appeal to faith appeal to tradition argument from authority (argumentum ad

verecundiam) Appeal to consequences (argumentum ad

consequentiam) argument from adverse

consequencesargumentum ad baculum argumentum ad ignorantiam argumentum ad populum bandwagon fallacybegging the question


circular reasoning composition fallacy confirmation biasconfusion of correlation

and causation excluded middle half truths loaded questions meaningless question misunderstanding the nature of statistics non sequitur no true Christianobservational selection post hoc, ergo propter hoc


proving non-existence red herring special pleading statistics of small numbers straw man two wrongs make a right Use-mention error

Guidelines for Evaluating Scientific Studies

Was the study large enough to pass statistical muster? The number of participants greatly effects the validity

of a study. Are the findings of the study statistically significant?

Is there a small chance that the findings were due to random chance alone?

The value that is typically used in scientific research is p = 0.05. This “p-value” means that the probability that the findings of the study are due to chance alone is only 1 in 20, or 5%. Many field of study require more rigorous standards. Physicists use p-values of p=0.001 to validate their findings.

Science-Based Life


Was the study large enough to pass statistical muster? As a general rule, any correlation that has a p-value

of greater than 0.05 (p > 0.05) should not be taken as evidence for anything.

Taking a more basic approach, if you were to read in a study that “the majority of US citizens now reject the theory of evolution,” you should find out how many people were in the study. The statistics turn out that if you have less than around 1,024 people for a nationwide study, the margin or error exponentially increases beyond three percent. In study that reports a 49/51 split, this could render the claim worthless.

Science-Based Life


Is the study it well designed? Could unintentional bias have affected the results? Unless you are an expert, this may be

difficult to ascertain. If it was a clinical trial, who were the

patients and how were they selected? Was there a control group? Was the

sample population that the study selected representative of the general population?

Science-Based Life


Is the study it well designed? Could unintentional bias have affected the results? Was the study as “blinded” as possible, meaning

that no one involved with the study knew which condition was which and who was involved with it?

Were there any conflicts of interest that should have been disclosed by the researchers? Funding from a corporation does not automatically mean that the results of a study are false, but it is something that absolutely can bias research.

Science-Based Life


Did it last long enough? This question may not apply to some sciences,

but it is especially important when evaluating clinical trials.

Did the study run its full course or did it stop when the results favored the hypothesis?

Were there any other possible explanations for the conclusions of the study or reasons to doubt the findings? Remember, correlation does not prove

causation.Science-Based Life


Do the conclusions fit with other scientific evidence? If not, why? Are the results of a study consistent with

other findings in that field? Has the study been replicated and

confirmed? One study does not prove anything.

Science-Based Life


Have the findings been checked by other experts? This is one of the most important

questions that you can ask when looking at a study

Are there experts who disagree with the claims in a study? Why or why not?

Does the researcher have a good track record when it comes to findings standing up to scrutiny?

Science-Based Life


Have the findings been checked by other experts? Most importantly, as one of the safety nets

of science, has the study been through peer review?

Is the journal that the study is published in reputable? A study coming out of an obscure journal with no peer review, that is to say, no experts to check over the work of the researchers, is not necessarily wrong but should be highly suspect.

Science-Based Life

“In science it often happens that scientists say, "You know that's a

really good argument; my position is mistaken," and then they would actually change their minds and

you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are

human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I

cannot recall the last time something like that happened in

politics or religion.

Carl SaganCSICOP 1987

Please Help!

If you were to take only one single idea from this presentation…

HELP our CHILDREN by promoting CRITICAL THINKING

Inform to your School Board, Administrators and Teachers that you want our next generation to be

CRITICAL THINKERS

“Much of education today focuses on

obedience skills rather than critical thinking

skills.”Byran Mcgill

“Children must be taught HOW TO THINK,

not what to think.”

Margaret Meade

“I have never let my schooling interfere with

my education.”

Mark Twain, Author1835 - 1910

“Too often we give children answers to

remember rather than problems to solve.”

Roger Lewin

“Education is not the learning of facts, but

the training of the mind to think.”

Albert Einstein1879 - 1955

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read

and write, but those who cannot learn,

unlearn, and relearn.”Alvin Toffler

Thank you for listening to my presentation.

Randy Cox, Thinker

If you would like a copy of this presentation or have a question, please email me at [email protected]