are medium-scale farms driving agricultural …...uganda, kenya) 2. rising vibrancy of land sales...
TRANSCRIPT
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Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation in Africa?
T. S. Jayne, M. Muyanga, F.K. Yeboah, A. Aromolaran, A. Chapoto, T. Shonhe, F. Dzanku, N. Mdoe and A. Wineman
Work Stream 3 StudyAPRA Annual Research Review and Planning Workshop
University of Ghana, Legon, and theInstitute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER)
Ghana –4 December 2018
Funded by UK aid from the UK Government
www.future-agricultures.org/apra
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Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of cultivated land, Tanzania
2Source: Tanzania LSMS (National Panel Surveys), 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, National Bureau of Statistics
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Changes in farm structure in ZimbabwePRE 2000 POST 2000
Category (ha)
No of farms
% Land owned (ha)
% No of farms
% Land owned (ha)
%
0-5 613 3.1 2,369 0.0 376 0.2 1,373.60 0.0
5--10 278 1.4 2,078 0.0 8321 5.0 174,862.77 1.6
10--20 591 2.9 8,605 0.1 80340 48.5 2,517,254.90 23.7
20--100 6019 30.0 406,020 2.8 61960 37.4 3,906,140.41 36.8
Over 100 12567 62.6 14,263,069 97.1 14636 8.8 4,020,228.55 37.9
Total 20068 100.0 14,682,142 100.0 165633 100.0 10,619,860.22 100.0
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Changes in farm structure in Zimbabwe
Category (ha) GROWTH (farms) Growth (area)
0-5 -38.66 -42.02
5--10 2,893.17 8,313.87
10--20 13,493.91 29,151.93
20--100 929.41 862.06
Over 100 16.46 -71.81
Total 725.36 -27.67
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Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of agricultural production value, Tanzania
5Source: Tanzania LSMS (National Panel Surveys), 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, National Bureau of Statistics
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Share (%) of total value of national marketed crop output:Ghana
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Survey yearFarm size category
0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha > 100 ha All farms
1992 74.8 12.5 6.8 5.1 0.7 100
1998 65.4 16.9 9.5 8.1 0.1 100
2006 59.5 15.5 10.4 10.2 4.5 100
2013 56.6 22.9 13.1 7.0 0.4 100
Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys
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Share (%) of total value of national marketed crop output by medium-scale farms is growing: Ghana
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Survey yearFarm size category
0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha > 100 ha All farms
1992 74.8 12.5 6.8 5.1 0.7 100
1998 65.4 16.9 9.5 8.1 0.1 100
2006 59.5 15.5 10.4 10.2 4.5 100
2013 56.6 22.9 13.1 7.0 0.4 100
Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys
24%
43%
75%
57%
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Medium-scale (5-100 ha) farms accounting for rising share of national value marketed crop output, Ghana
8Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys
Chart1
grains/roots/tubersgrains/roots/tubers
industrial cash cropsindustrial cash crops
horticulturehorticulture
legumes/oilseedslegumes/oilseeds
1992
2013
% Share
20.1
39.1
37.6
43.8
21
50.1
27.9
53.3
Sheet1
19922013Column1
grains/roots/tubers20.139.1
industrial cash crops37.643.8
horticulture2150.1
legumes/oilseeds27.953.3
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Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value
marketed crop output, Tanzania
9Source: Tanzania NPS/LSMS Surveys
Chart1
grains/roots/tubersgrains/roots/tubers
industrial cash cropsindustrial cash crops
horticulturehorticulture
legumes/oilseedslegumes/oilseeds
2008
2014
% share
18.1
36.4
14.2
25.9
7.1
9.9
13.3
40.4
Sheet1
20082014Column1
grains/roots/tubers18.136.4
industrial cash crops14.225.9
horticulture7.19.9
legumes/oilseeds13.340.4
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10Source: Nigeria General Household Surveys
Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed
crop output, Nigeria
Chart1
grains/roots/tubersgrains/roots/tubers
industrial cash cropsindustrial cash crops
horticulturehorticulture
legumes/oilseedslegumes/oilseeds
2011
2016
% share
7.2
19.3
12.8
18.9
3.2
17.8
11.3
13.8
Sheet1
20112016Column1
grains/roots/tubers7.219.3
industrial cash crops12.818.9
horticulture3.217.8
legumes/oilseeds11.313.8
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Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop
output, Rwanda
11Source: Rwanda Integrated Household Living Condition Surveys
Chart1
grains/roots/tubersgrains/roots/tubers
industrial cash cropsindustrial cash crops
horticulturehorticulture
legumes/oilseedslegumes/oilseeds
2006
2014
% share
0.9
5.1
0.1
1.2
0.4
1.7
5.3
4
Sheet1
20062014Column1
grains/roots/tubers0.95.1
industrial cash crops0.11.2
horticulture0.41.7
legumes/oilseeds5.34
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Land allocation by farm size category, Tanzania, 2014
Source: Agricultural Sample Census, 2014
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Typology of MS farmersCategory 1: Formerly small-scale farmers who successfully expanded their operations –
• Now typically operate 5-20 ha• About 5-40%% of total MS farms
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Category 2: Rural people who were primarily in non-farm jobs, then invested in farming
• Much more likely to be related to rural power structures – chiefs, state govt, religious leaders
• Now typically operating 5-20 ha• About 25%-40% of MS farms
Category 3: People formerly/currently reside in urban areas• Formerly or currently salaried jobs, public sector• Many retirees in this category• Typically operating 20-50 ha• Often “telephone farmers” • 40%-65% of total MS farms
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Summary:1. Important changes in the distribution of farm sizes
• Decline in share of farmland under 5 hectare farms• Rising share of farmland under 5-100 hectare farms
• Not happening everywhere! Mainly in areas with potential for expansion of farmland, not in areas already facing acute land scarcity (e.g., Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya)
2. Rising vibrancy of land sales markets, based on willingness to pay criteria – usually with the support of national governments
3. Rising inequality of farmland distribution4. Rising land prices driven by relatively wealthy people seeking to
acquire land• not just for farming (speculation, housing/properties too)• Rise of new towns converting formerly remote land into valued property,
raising demand for land
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Consequences of changing farm size distributions
1. Some positive synergies with nearby smallholder hh’s:
• Rising use of mechanization rental markets
• Pulling in commodity traders and input distributors
2. Some negative impacts on nearby smallholders:
• Greater inequality of farmland distribution
• Some displacement
• Rising land prices straining youth access to land
3. MS farms are driving crop area expansion in some countries, but not in land constrained areas
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www.future-agricultures.org/apra
Next Steps • Synthesis report and policy brief planned for March 2019:
• Tentative title: Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation in Africa? or “Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation or Hastening Smallholders Exit from Farming, or Both?”
• Possible presentation at: • World Bank, April 2019• African Development Bank headquarters, April 2019• AAAE meetings, Abuja, September 2019
• Publication: Forthcoming in Agricultural Economics, November 2019
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Thank You
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Slide Number 1Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of cultivated land, TanzaniaSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of agricultural production value, TanzaniaShare (%) of total value of national marketed crop output:�GhanaShare (%) of total value of national marketed crop output by medium-scale farms is growing: GhanaMedium-scale (5-100 ha) farms accounting for rising share of national value marketed crop output, Ghana Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop output, Tanzania Slide Number 10Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop output, Rwanda Slide Number 12Typology of MS farmersSummary:Consequences of changing farm size distributionsSlide Number 16Slide Number 17