are global indices overbought?
DESCRIPTION
In this presentation, Peter Esho shared his thoughts on the US non-farm payroll numbers and its effects on the Asian markets. He also touched on his anticipations about the US and Japanese markets and on Invast's three portfolios.TRANSCRIPT
Are Global Indices Overbought?
with Peter Esho April 6, 2014
This week is expected to be very, very busy for markets. We’re already
seeing an increase in volatility on Asian markets very early on Monday.
This was prompted by the US non-farm payroll numbers coming out
slightly below expectations, but a big revision for the prior months.
Expectations are starting to build out there in the US bond market that
interest rates may perhaps have to start rising over the next few years and
so this week's FOMC meeting minutes will be very, very closely watched.
It really will be a turning point for markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is coming from its all-time high. We
actually think that the US market is set for a decline somewhere in the
order of about five or ten percent, perhaps over the next four to six weeks.
That’s a key market that we’ll be watching. It’s a key market that we've
been recently discussing at our morning meetings. We’ll be updating the
Invast blog following those FOMC meeting minutes with technical levels.
It's also a week where we’ll have a look into the Japanese markets. We
have the BOJ meeting very early on during the week.
The Japanese market, the Nikke,i is also under pressure. There is
perhaps somewhere in the order of about four to five percent downside on
the Nikkei. We've been updating that in our live market analysis which run
every Wednesday and also on our blog.
In Invast Insights this week, we update our portfolios. All 3 portfolios are in
positive territory. We’ve made some new decisions in terms of where to
invest in our wealth creation portfolio. We've added some new small cap
stocks in there, which we think will do well over the next few years. We
also have a look at the Australian dollar given last week's Reserve Bank of
Australia meeting minutes. More importantly, this week's jobs numbers
which are a key event --- we’ll update that at the live markets analysis on
Wednesday, but its something that you should put down in your trading
calendar if you’re trading the Aussie dollar. We’ve reviewed that in Invast
Insights as I’ve said.
With all that in mind very early on, building out towards the end of the
week, we end the week with Chinese data around inflation which the
market will watch very, very closely. The market is also watching for any
signs of Chinese stimulus coming into the market. That has been absent
over the past few weeks. We're starting to see metals like copper again,
reverse their recent upward trend and so that'll be a major theme this
week.
Plenty going on. Make sure you check out the Invast blog on a daily basis.
Again, register into that live market analysis, and if you haven't already
signed up for a full week free trial into our Invast Insights, it's well worth
doing.