are bots the new apps? - fung business intelligence bots the new apps by... · bots for the...
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JULY29,2016
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
• Steady progress in natural language processingand artificial intelligence (AI) has led to theadventofbots, automated softwareagents thatcan carry on conversations, answer questionsandperformtasks.
• Many industry experts believe that the powerandflexibilityofbotscouldsurpassthatofapps,which have become the tool of choice forperformingtasksonsmartphones.
• Theglobalmarket for chatbotshit$88.3millionlastyearandisexpectedtogrowata36%CAGRthrough 2023, when it will reachmore than $1billion, according to Credence Researchforecasts.
• Computer scientists are working on making thenextsteptoconnectbotswithAIappliancesthatcandecodehumanspeech.Oncethattechnologyhas been proven, the conversational computersthatwereoncethestuffofsciencefictionmoviesarelikelytobecomeubiquitous.
Are Bots the New
Apps?
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JULY29,2016
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
Since the advent of the cell phone, we have seen several concurrenttechnologicaltrends.Oneisthesteadyadvancementofsemiconductorandmicroelectronicstechnology.Developmentsinthesefieldshaveenabledusto carry in our pocket a device with more computing power than amainframecomputerhad justa coupleofdecadesago,andourhandhelddevices empower us to run all kinds ofmultimedia programs thatwe callapps. The second trend is the parallel advancement of research andtechnologyinnaturallanguageprocessingandAI,whichincreasinglyenablecomputerstounderstandhumanspeech.Athirdtrendisthedevelopmentof apps. Initially, smartphone users could run programs frombuilt-inwebbrowsersor fromnativeapps.Appsgraduallywonoutbecause theywererelatively easier to use. However, there is a new game in town—bots—which, ironically, echo the text-basedprogramsof amuchearlierera, the1960s.
Bots are automated softwareagents thatusenatural languageprocessingandAItocontrolprogramsthatcananswerquestionsorcompletetasks.Atpresent,theyoperateviaatext-basedinterface:theusertypesaquestionintoanappormessagingprogramand,voilà, thequestion isansweredoran action is performed. But given the functionality and power that appsalready offer via their combination of graphical user interface andtouchscreen,whywouldanyonepreferabot?
Theanswer resides in theeffort required tocode,debugand testanapp.An app’s functionality is fixed (until the next version is created), andthereforelimited.Thislimitationmeansthatappsarenotabletoservetheminorityofuserspresentinthe“longtails”ofthebell-shapedcurve.Bots,which reside on a server, can be modified and customized much moreeasily.Moreover,manyofusaresufferingfrom“appfatigue,”andaretiredof constantlyhaving todownload, register,organizeandupdatea slewofappsonourphones.Nearlyeveryretailerandorganizationhasitsownapp,which makes app upkeep challenging. Clearly, bots cannot replace appscompletely,buttherewillbeaplaceforbothonusers’smartphones.
Source:PcMag
There are several commercially available AI-based personal assistantdevices, such Amazon’s Echo, and the number of functions they canperformisrapidlyincreasing.Theseassistantsarenotbots,however.They
Manyofusaresufferingfrom“appfatigue,”andaretiredofconstantlyhavingtodownload,register,organizeandupdateaslewofappsonourphones.
BotsareautomatedsoftwareagentsthatusenaturallanguageprocessingandAItocontrolprogramsthatcananswerquestionsorcompletetasks.
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
simply perform preprogrammed tasks. They are not able to carry on aninteractive conversation with the user…yet. The next step is to connectthese devices, which can decode human language, with bots, in order tocreate tools that were previously the stuff of sci-fi movies: interactive,speakingcomputersthatcanintelligentlyconversewithhumans.
WHATISABOT?
A bot (short for “chatbot”) is an automated software agent that uses acombination of natural languageprocessing andAI to control software toanswer questions or complete tasks. The “bot” root comes from “robot”(derived from the verbmeaning “towork” inmanySlavic languages), andthenameimpliesthatbotsareabletoactautonomously.
NATURALLANGUAGEVS.TEXT-BASEDBOTS
Interestingly, with bots, AI and natural language processing technology istaking a few steps backward in order to take a big step forward. Botdevelopers areusing a text-based interface that echoes computer scienceexperiments of the 1960s, and leapfrogging the current generation ofcomputerizedassistants thatareable tounderstandand respond tovoicecommands. The next step—to connect the two systems—will enable thecreation of computers that can converse with us and perform intelligentactionsonourbehalf.
AI-BASEDPERSONALASSISTANTS
Apple’s Siri is probably the best-known AI-based personal assistant, butthereareseveralotheronesavailable,asshowninthetablebelow.
Figure1.KeyFeaturesofMajorAIPersonalAssistants
Platform LaunchDate KeyFeatures
AppleSiri Oct.2011 Integratedintomultipledevices,includingtheiPad,iPhone,iPodTouch,AppleWatchandAppleTV
AmazonEcho(withAlexa)
Jun.2015 Caninteractandcontroldevicesandservicessuchashomeautomation;canordercarsfromUber;canorderAmazonproducts
GoogleNow Jul.2012 Reliesonpredictivetechnologytoanticipatetheuser’sinformationneeds
MicrosoftCortana
Apr.2014 Employsprogressiveintelligence;thesystemaskspermissionbeforeaccessingauser’sinformationonadeviceinsteadofautomaticallyrecordinginformation
FacebookM Aug.2015 UseshumanintelligencetotrainandimproveAI
HoundbySoundHound
Underdevelopment
Comprehendsnaturallanguage;iscapableofhandlingsophisticatedcommands
Mobvoi Aug.2014 ChineseAIpersonalassistantthatisavailableoniOS,Androidanditsownsmartwatch
Viv May2016 Learningplatformthatcanhandlecomplexinquiries;opentoavarietyofdevicesandservices
Source:Companywebsites/FinancialTimes
Interestingly,withbots,AIandnaturallanguageprocessingtechnologyistakingafewstepsbackwardinordertotakeabigstepforward.Botdevelopersareusingatext-basedinterfacethatechoescomputerscienceexperimentsofthe1960s.
Abot(shortfor“chatbot”)isanautomatedsoftwareagentthatusesacombinationofnaturallanguageprocessingandAItocontrolsoftwaretoanswerquestionsorcompletetasks.
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Source:FuturisTech
Viv is the newest entrant into the space. The assistant’s manufactureroffered an impressivedemoof the system inMay2016 and is planning arolling launch toward the end of this year. Amazon’s Echo is currentlydrawing an enormous amount ofmedia attention. Its repertoire of 1,500activities (which the company calls “skills”) is growing, anduserswho arealsoAmazonPrimememberscanplacePrimeordersverballythroughEcho.
ELIZA:ONEOFTHEFIRSTBOTS
ELIZA (namedafter theElizaDoolittle character inGeorgeBernardShaw’splayPygmalion)wasanatural languageprocessingprogramwrittenattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyduring1964–1966.TheprogramrantheDOCTOR script,which simulatedapsychotherapist. ELIZAwould ask apatient what was ailing him or her, “listen” to the answer, and thencontinuewithasequenceoffollow-upquestions.However,thecapabilitiesof the program were exhausted fairly easily, leading to nonsensicalconversations.(ClickhereforanonlinedemoofELIZA.)
Figure2.SampleELIZAConversation
Source:Mobygames.com
ELIZAwasanaturallanguageprocessingprogramwrittenattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyduring1964–1966.TheprogramrantheDOCTORscript,whichsimulatedapsychotherapist.
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JULY29,2016
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
MARKETSIZE
The potential market for bots is as large as the global installed base forsmartphones, which the GSM Association estimates will total nearly 2.6billionthisyear.Anotherwaytogaugethepotentialmarket is in termsofthenumberofusersof socialmedia applications,whichare shown in thegraphbelow.
Figure3.LeadingSocialNetworksWorldwide,asofApril2016,NumberofActiveUsers(Mil.)
*Numberofuniquevisitingmembers,nottotalmembersSource:Facebook/Google/LinkedIn/WeAreSocial/WhatsApp/Twitter/Tumblr
Thepopularityofchatapps is illustrated in the figurebelow,whichshowsthat US Android users spend between eight and 48 minutes per day onvariousmessagingapps.
Source:KakaoTalk
1,5901,000
900853
697640
555400
320300300
249222215200
122100100100100100
FacebookWhatsApp
FacebookMessengerQQ
WeChatQzoneTumblr
InstagramTwiqer
BaiduTiebaSkypeViber
SinaWeiboLINE
SnapchatyyVK
PinterestBBM
LinkedIn*Telegram
USAndroidusersspendbetweeneightand48minutesperdayonvariousmessagingapps.
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JULY29,2016
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Figure4.USAndroidUsers:AverageTimeSpentonMessagingAppsperDay,1Q16(Minutes)
Source:SimilarWeb
CredenceResearchestimates that the globalmarket for chatbots reached$88.3millionlastyear.Thefirmexpectsthemarkettogrowata36%CAGR,tomorethan$1billion,through2023,asshowninthefigurebelow.
Figure5.GlobalChatbotMarket(USDMil.)
Source:CredenceResearch
At Facebook’s April 2016 F8 developer conference, CEOMark Zuckerbergcommented,“Noonewantstohavetoinstallanewappforeverybusinessorservicethattheywanttointeractwith.Wethinkthatyoushouldjustbeabletomessageabusinessinthesamewaythatyoumessageafriend.”Atthe conference, Facebook announced the launch of a beta version of its
8.12
9.36
16.10
18.43
20.38
20.47
28.40
29.50
32.48
48.37
GoogleHangouts
FacebookMessenger
Skype
Snapchat
Viber
LINE
Kik
KakaoTalk
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
14 15 16E 17E 18E 19E 20E 21E 22E 23E
CredenceResearchestimatesthattheglobalmarketforchatbotsreached$88.3millionlastyear.Thefirmexpectsthemarkettogrowata36%CAGR,tomorethan$1billion,through2023
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
bots for the Messenger platform, consisting of send/receive applicationprogram interfaces, discovery tools using a natural language processingengine provided byWit.ai. At the time of the platform’s launch, 35 botswereavailable,includingthefollowing:
Figure6.SelectedFacebookBotsAvailableatLaunchofItsBotsPlatform• 1-800-Flowers
• BankofAmerica
• Burger King / TimHortons
• BusinessInsider
• CNN
• eBay
• Expedia
• Fandango
• HP
• PhilzCoffee
• Salesforce
• Shopify
• Staples
• StubHub
• UNICEF
• TheWallStreetJournal
• Zalando
Source:Engadget.com
The most recent arrival on the Facebook Messenger platform is BuzzBot(developed by BuzzFeed), which is currently collecting and filtering newsabouttheUSnationalpoliticalconventions.
MICROSOFT/SKYPE
Microsoft has had mixed success in launching bots. In March 2016, itlaunched an AI-powered chatbot called Tay, a product of the MicrosoftTechnology and Research and Bing teams. The bot was intended to craftlightheartedresponsestoconversationalqueriesposedby18–24-year-olds,butwaspulledadayafter launch, shortlyafter itwasdiscovered that thebotcouldbe“taught”tomakeracistandsexistcomments.
Morerecently,Microsoftaddedchatbots toSkype, the Internet telephonyplatformitacquiredinMay2011for$8.5billion.InMarch2016,Microsoftintroduced Skype Bots, which it said were a newway to bring expertise,products, services and entertainment into daily messaging on Skype. Thecompanyplanstomakethebotsavailableforaudioandvideocallinginthefuture. The types and capabilities of Skype Bots are outlined in the tablebelow.
Figure7.SkypeBots’CapabilitiesandCreators
Bot Capabilities Creator
MitsukuArtificiallyintelligentBFF(bestfriendforever)designedtoentertain Pandorabots
CaptionBot Attemptstounderstandanddescribeimages Microsoft
MurphyBrings“whatif”scenariostolifeandcreatesimagesthatillustratethequestions Microsoft
“Hello,Stranger!”Game
Textgameinwhichtheuserhelpsthemaincharacterescapetheoceandepthsinrealtime BotWanted
“Hello,Stranger!2”Game
Textgameinwhichtheuserreceivestextmessagesfromanunknowngirl,Alice,tohelpheronherjourney BotWanted
Ava Automatedvirtualassistantforbusinesses Zoom.ai
BingMusic–Preview
Searchestheweb,includingpopularsitessuchasYouTube,LyricFindandVevo,forasongtitleandartist Microsoft
MarkZuckerbergcommented,“Noonewantstohavetoinstallanewappforeverybusinessorservicethattheywanttointeractwith.Wethinkthatyoushouldjustbeabletomessageabusinessinthesamewaythatyoumessageafriend.”
InMarch2016,MicrosoftintroducedSkypeBots,whichitsaidwereanewwaytobringexpertise,products,servicesandentertainmentintodailymessagingonSkype.
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JULY29,2016
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Bot Capabilities CreatorBingNews–Preview
SearchesthewebforthelatestnewsusingBing Microsoft
BingImage–Preview
Searchesthewebformemes,GIFs,stickersandotherimages Microsoft
Summarize Summarizesalinkintothemainpointsofthearticle MicrosoftGettyImages–Preview
Searchesoneoftheworld’slargestdatabasesofstockphotography Microsoft
Source:Companywebsites
BOTLIST:ANAPPSTOREFORBOTS
App stores arose as the number of smartphone apps exploded, and, in asimilarfashion,Botlist.cohasemergedasadirectoryforbots,calling itself“an app store for bots.” The site lists around 400 bots for the followingplatformsandcategories:
Figure8.BotlistPlatformsandCategoriesPlatforms Categories
Android
FacebookMessenger
iPhone
Kik
Slack
SMS
Telegram
Web
Skype
• Analytics
• BuildABot
• Communication
• CustomerSupport
• Design
• DeveloperTools
• Entertainment
• FileManagement
• Food
• Health
• HR
• Marketing
• News
• OfficeManagement
• Payments
• Personal
• Productivity
• Security
• Social&Fun
• Sports
• TaskManagement
• Travel
• Utilities
Source:Botlist.co
OTHERBOTMAKERS
Other bots include the Haptik personal assistant app, which can acquireinformation and perform services for the user, and Helpshift, a customersupport platform formobile andwebusers that helps companies supportandengagetheircustomers.
Users of WeChat (the fifth-largest social network worldwide as of April2016) havebeenusing bots to shop andpay bills since the company firstbegan offering them in 2013. WeChat bot accounts are called “publicaccounts,”andareavailableintwotypes:
• Subscription accounts,which are used by content providers to sendmessagestosubscribers.
• Serviceaccounts,whichareusedbycustomerservicedepartmentstointeractwithcustomers.
Appstoresaroseasthenumberofsmartphoneappsexploded,and,inasimilarfashion,Botlist.cohasemergedasadirectoryforbots,callingitself“anappstoreforbots.”
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
“BOTSARETHENEWAPPS”
Manybelieve that theageof apps is coming to a close and thatbotswillsupersede them. While apps are unlikely to disappear completely,Medium.comsuggeststhatbotsprovideanumberofadvantagesoverapps:
• Botsareeasier to install,hosted in thecloud,andcanbedistributedandupdatedquicklyandeasily.
• Appsareexpensivetocreateandmaintain,andonlyservetheneedsofthemajorityofusers.
• Consumersareoverwhelmedwiththeneedtodownloadandinstalladifferentappforeverything.
• Messaging is ubiquitous, and bots satisfy the human need forinteractivecommunication.
ThisJuly,thefirst internationalbotathon—ahackathonforchatbots—tookplace in San Francisco, organized by VentureBeat. A 15-year-old namedLiamMcKinleycreatedthewinningbot,whichhelpsstudentsusingGoogleClassroommonitortheirgrades,homeworkandcommunication.
Source:Linkedin.com
OTHERTYPESOFBOTS
There are several other types of bots, some which are used to thedetriment of society and some for our benefit. These include ticket bots,webcrawlers andother software agents. Ticket bots areused topurchasepopularconcertticketswhentheygoonsaleonwebsitesforresalelateratahigherprice (i.e., tobescalped).Theyareconsideredascourge,as theyresult in higher ticket prices and reduced ticket availability for ordinaryconsumers. Governments often try to eliminate these bots, but thebotmakers seem to always be one step ahead of law enforcement andverificationservicessuchasCaptcha.
Manybelievethattheageofappsiscomingtoacloseandthatbotswillsupersedethem.
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
Source:CodeProject
Webcrawlers arebots that can systematically travel through the Internetforthepurposeofcatalogingit.PopularsearchenginessuchasGoogleandYahoousewebcrawlerstoupdatetheircatalogs.Therearealsomanywebtools that use bots to “scrape” common information; thesemight gatherinformation from a set of similar web pages, for example, saving usershoursoftimethatwouldbeusedfortediousdataentry.
CONCLUSION
Steady progress in computer science has brought advances in naturallanguage processing andAI, leading to the advent of bots.Many industryexpertsbelievethatbotswillsurpassappsintermsofpowerandflexibility,eventually becoming the tool of choice for performing tasks onsmartphones. Before that happens, though, developers must reliablyconnectbotswithAIappliancesthatcandecodehumanspeech.Oncethathappens, the conversational computers that were once the stuff of sci-fimovieswilllikelybecomeubiquitous.
WebcrawlersarebotsthatcansystematicallytravelthroughtheInternetforthepurposeofcatalogingit.
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DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.
DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:[email protected],CFASeniorAnalystHONGKONG:10thFloor,LiFungTower888CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223002470LONDON:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NEWYORK:1359Broadway,9thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017
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