ARB VISION: CTP 2040 SCENARIOS

CALTRANS CTP TAC MEETING

OCTOBER 23, 2014

DEFINITION: “SCENARIO PLANNING”

• Wikipedia:• “Strategic planning method…to make flexible long-

term plans”• “Systems thinking…[to evaluate] surprising futures”

• International Energy Agency (IEA):• “Identify technology portfolios”

• U.S. Department of Energy:• “Identifying the range of possibilities of trends and

policies”• “Developing a shared understanding of a problem”

2ARB, Oct 23, 2014

HOW SCENARIO RESULTS ARE USED IN ARB POLICY DECISIONS

Long-term scenario emission results:

• Are not intended to define single “path”, but rather identify “trends” of most promising (and risky) strategies

• Acknowledge multiple strategy combinations exist to achieve goals; with some uncertainty

• Improve understanding of transportation system impacts (e.g. fuel infrastructure, cross-sector technologies, & activity changes)

3ARB, Oct 23, 2014

VISION MODEL TO EVALUATE SCENARIOS

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Vehicle Efficiency

Fuels (Conventional & Alternative)

Advanced Tech.

INPUT CHOICES RESULTS

Emissions of Criteria Pollutants and GHGs

MODEL OVERVIEW: USER INPUT CHOICES & SUMMARY RESULTS

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Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

Advanced Tech.

Advanced Technology

Transportation System Efficiencies

Annually from 2010 - 2050

Energy Consumption

Vehicle Populations

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• Passenger vehicles• Heavy-duty vehicles (on-road)• Freight locomotives• Aviation

SECTORS IN VISION MODEL 2.0

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• Cargo handling equipment• Commercial harbor craft• Commercial ships (ocean going vessels)• Construction equipment• Other off-road vehicles

• Fuel production for transportation and buildings• Residential and commercial buildings

Mobile Sectors Already Included

Mobile Sectors Under Development

Stationary Sources Already Included

ARB, Oct 23, 2014

BASIC MODEL STRUCTURE

Sector In-use Fleet Population (derived from inputs)

Vehicle Emissions “Tank to Wheel” (running, evap, etc)

Example Results:(for each veh type)• gNOx/mi• gROG/mi• gCO2e/mi

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Fuel demand from each fleet (gallons, kWh, etc)

Upstream Emissions, “Well to Tank”

Example Results:(for each fuel type)• gNOx/gallon• gROG/gallon• gCO2e/gallon

Example Results:• Gallons gas/yr• Gallons dsl/yr• kWh elec/yr

ARB, Oct 23, 2014

MODEL & DATA COORDINATION FOR CTP2040

8ARB, Oct 23, 2014

MODELS, DATA HANDOFFS, ETC

• Caltrans CSTDM• MPO data, EMFAC 2011 predominantly • Alt 1 (baseline), Alt 2 (VMT strategies)

• ARB EMFAC 2014• Speed bin and VMT changes – scale base EFs

• ARB Vision 2.0• Already has default EMFAC 2014 embedded• Scale EF from speed bin changes, CTP VMT• Alt 3: Add new technology and alternative fuels

9ARB, Oct 23, 2014

MODELS, DATA HANDOFFS, ETC

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CSTDM EMFAC 2014

Vision 2.0

• VMT aggregated

into 4 veh bundles

• 2010, ‘20, ‘35, ’40

• By county

• By speed bin

• Disaggregate VMT

to all vehicle classes

• Extrapolate all years

• Result: TTW CO2e

by veh class & year

• EMFAC 2014 import:

• VMT by veh class

• EF by veh class

• For all years

• Statewide

Rail Plan

Aviation Plan

ARB, Oct 23, 2014

THREE CTP2040 ALTERNATIVES

• Vision results for all three alternatives• Use CTP modes; add other Vision modes for context

• Alternative 1 - Baseline• CTP2040 baseline VMT• CTP2040 LDV, HDV, Passenger rail, passenger air

• Alternative 2 – Caltrans VMT strategies• Only variable – reduced VMT

• Alternative 3 – Advanced veh & fuel strategies• To fill GHG gap to 2050• May show various combinations to reach same GHG

11ARB, Oct 23, 2014

EXAMPLE RESULTS FROM PREVIOUS VISION MODEL

(PUBLIC STAFF REPORTS)

12ARB, Oct 23, 2014

Statewide GHG Emissions

South Coast NOx Emissions

Targets

2012 SCENARIOS:COMBINED RESULTS

BAU = business as usual (existing policies)13ARB, Oct 23, 2014

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2012 SCENARIO BAU: STATEWIDE GHG EMISSIONS

Emission Targets

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2012 SCENARIO 2: STATEWIDE GHG EMISSIONS

~30% Below 1990

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Emission Targets

2012 SCENARIO BAU: SOUTH COAST NOX EMISSIONS

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2012 SCENARIO 3: SOUTH COAST NOX EMISSIONS

Emission Targets

17ARB, Oct 23, 2014

2009 STATEWIDE GHG SCENARIO: LDV FLEET TECHNOLOGY MIX

PHEVs

ICEs

HEVs BEVsFCVs

ZEV+PHEV Sales

ZEV Reg

79%

87%

ZEV+ PHEV

ZEV only

18ARB, Oct 23, 2014

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2012 SCENARIO 3: SCAB HDV FLEET TECHNOLOGY MIX

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2012 SCENARIO 3: FUEL SUPPLY TRANSFORMATION

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FUELS TRANSFORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR CTP2040

21ARB, Oct 23, 2014

INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE

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CTP 2040

Highway Transit Aviation Rail Freight

Mo

dal

Pla

ns

Reduce VMTEfficient Operation of System

Low Carbon FuelsAdvanced Vehicle Tech A

pp

roac

hes

New Nexus / System Issue: Alt fuel infrastructure• Road network – Truck trips for feedstocks and fuel stations• VMT from adv vehicles – where they fuel, park, etc• Facilities – fuel depots for multi-modes (e.g. freight)

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Fuel production facilities and delivery occur locally to varying degrees. Activities and land-use will change

FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

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TODAY

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FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

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TOMORROW: Biofuels - More feedstock truck trips

TOMORROW: Hydrogen - More fuel delivery truck trips

FUEL TRANSFORMATION: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

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TODAY TOMORROW: Electricity

• Most fueling at home, some at work

• Different trip profile for fueling (work, retail)

ARB, Oct 23, 2014

SCENARIO RESULTS: FUELING INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS

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Long-term scenario result: Expansive alternative fuel use

• H2 stations for LDVs: 1,118 stations by 2030 *• Based on station size: 500 kg/day capacity @ 90% utilization & 1kg/d/veh• Today: 17 H2 stations in CA (30 – 120 kg/day capacity each)

• Renewable Diesel: 20 new biofuel refineries by 2030 **• Based on refinery size: 50 million gallons/yr (mgpy) capacity• Today: 3 ethanol production facilities in CA @ 50 mgpy (imported corn)

• Similar needs for: Electric chargers, CNG, LNG stations

Near-term potential policy action(s):

• Create infrastructure roadmap, with CEC, PUC, Caltrans• Focus on: H2, Electric chargers, CNG, LNG

* 503,000 FCVs on-road by 2030** ~1 billion gallons RD by 2030ARB, Oct 23, 2014