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All rights reserved, AlJAZIRA CAPITAL © Research Division Company Reports Please read Disclaimer on the back Aramex Company NOVEMBER 2012 Results Update 2 nd Quarter 2012 Results Update 3 rd Quarter 2012

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Page 1: Aramex Company Quarter 2012 - Aljazira Capital · 1 Aramex Report Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012 Rating: “OVERWEIGHT” Current Price: AED 1.92 12-month price target:

All rights reserved, AlJAZIRA CAPITAL ©Research DivisionCompany Reports Please read Disclaimer on the back

AramexCompany

NOVEMBER2012

Results Update 2nd Quarter 2012

Results Update 3rd Quarter 2012

Page 2: Aramex Company Quarter 2012 - Aljazira Capital · 1 Aramex Report Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012 Rating: “OVERWEIGHT” Current Price: AED 1.92 12-month price target:

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. 07076-37

RESEARCHDIVISION

AGM - Head of ResearchAbdullah Alawi+966 2 [email protected]

Senior Analyst Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 2 6618271 [email protected]

AnalystSaleh Al-Quati+966 2 [email protected]

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS

DIVISION

General Manager - Brokerage DivisionAla’a Al-Yousef+966 1 [email protected]

AGM-Head of international and institutional brokerageLuay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 1 [email protected]

Regional Manager - West and South RegionsAbdullah Al-Misbahi+966 2 [email protected]

Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern ProvinceAbdullah Al-Rahit+966 6 [email protected]

Page 3: Aramex Company Quarter 2012 - Aljazira Capital · 1 Aramex Report Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012 Rating: “OVERWEIGHT” Current Price: AED 1.92 12-month price target:

November2012

1

AramexReport Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012

Rating: “OVERWEIGHT”

Current Price: AED 1.92

12-month price target: AED 2.51

Up-dated 12-M price target: AED 2.54

Upside/(Downside): 32%

• 3Q result lower than expected: Aramex in 3Q-2012 posted net earnings of AED 57.5mn, against our expectation of AED 77.6mn, translating into a variance of 26%. Revenue for 3Q-2012 showed a jump of 17.5%YoY. The company’s revenue of AED 765.20mn was 2.6% below our expectation of 785mn. This difference of AED 20mn in revenues, between our estimate and the actual result, has directly Impacted the bottom line, as net income has shown a variance of AED 20mn, translating into a variance of 26%. The company’s income attributable to the equity holders for 3Q-2012 stood at AED 53.1mn as compared to 48.0mn for 3Q-2011, depicting a jump of 11%. The company’s income attributed to equity holders was 22% below our expectation.

• Revision in estimation, cut in revenue forecast, bottom line maintained: Given the variance in 2012 estimates, we cut our revenue forecast of 2012 by 0.6% to AED 3095.0 as compared to our previous revenue estimation of AED 3115.0. However, on the back of 9M-2012 result we have also adjusted, our estimation for other expenses like administrative, selling and marketing and other operating expenses, downwards by 3.8%, 3.4% and 1.7% respectively. We believe that our initial estimation for above mentioned costs were on the higher side and needed to be adjusted. This has resulted in a jump of 2.4% over our previous estimates for 2012. Our revised forecasted net profit for 2012 is AED 271mn.

• Valuation: Given the revision in our earnings estimates , we adjust our price target upwards to AED 2.54/share. At current price of AED 1.92, the stock gives a potential return of 32%, we maintain our “Overweigh” stance.

AlJazira Research

Keyfinancialupdates2012

All figures in SAR mn, unless otherwise stated

Earlier estimates 2012

New estimates 2012

Upward/(Downward) revision

Sales Revenue 3,115 3,095 -0.6%COGS (1,439) (1,438) 0.0%Gross Profit 1,677 1,657 -1.2%Gross Margin 53.8% 53.5%Operating Profit 279 302 8.2%Operating Margin 9.0% 9.8%Net Profit 265 271 2.4%Net Margin 8.5% 8.8%EPS (SAR) 0.18 0.19

Source: ARAMEX, Aljazira research

Page 4: Aramex Company Quarter 2012 - Aljazira Capital · 1 Aramex Report Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012 Rating: “OVERWEIGHT” Current Price: AED 1.92 12-month price target:

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi

Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the

Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in

all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging,

advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story

in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for

several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira

Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services,

brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of

securities business.

Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its

12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside

potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to

its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by

over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.

Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12

months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10%

range from the current price levels over next twelve months.

Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension

of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the

company.

For further queries about our special services, contact us at the toll free number 800 116 9999.

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Page 5: Aramex Company Quarter 2012 - Aljazira Capital · 1 Aramex Report Update | DUBAI | Transportation | 3Q 2012 Rating: “OVERWEIGHT” Current Price: AED 1.92 12-month price target:

Disclaimer

The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommendabuy/sell/holdforanysecurityoranyotherassets.Basedonthat,thisreportdoesnottakeintoconsiderationthespecificfinancialposition of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for allclientsdependingontheirfinancialpositionandtheirabilityandwillingnesstoundertakerisks.Itisadvisedthateverypotentialinvestorseekprofessionaladvicefromseveralsourcesconcerninginvestmentdecisionandshouldstudytheimpactofsuchdecisionsonhis/herfinancial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor insecuritiesorotherassetsmightfacesomeunexpectedrisksandfluctuations.Alltheinformation,viewsandexpectationsandfairvaluesortarget prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by AlJazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but AlJazira Capital hasnotindependentlyverifiedthecontentsobtainedfromthesesourcesandsuchinformationmaybecondensedorincomplete.Accordingly,no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. AlJazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of futureperformance.Anyfinancialprojections,fairvalueestimatesorpricetargetsandstatementsregardingfutureprospectscontainedinthisdocument may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in AlJazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report. This report has been produced independently and separately and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report. It should be also noted that the Research Division of AlJazira Capital had no information at the time of issuing this reportregardinganyconflictofinterestbetweenthecompany/companiesmentionedinthisreportandanymembersoftheboard/executives/employees of AlJazira Capital or any of Bank AlJazira Group companies. No part of this document may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of AlJazira Capital. Persons who receive this document should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this document, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

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Head Office: Madinah Road, Mosadia، P.O. Box: 6277, Jeddah 21442, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 02 6692669 - Fax: 02 669 7761