ar presentation - team theia

Winter School2017

Daniela Nossa Díaz

Nicolò Bonacina

Mahsa Bohlooli Zamani

Edoardo Marcandelli

Daniele Ramirez

Davide Renda

Martina Rontini

Marina Berardi (Leader)

Marco Boretto

Stefano Gabetti

Melissa Latella

THEIA

Is a merging of virtual world with real environment that provides users with completely new technological experiences

TITOLO

AUGMENTEDREALITY

REALITYAUGMENTED

A Universe of Opportunities

HOW DID WEGET TO AR?

TITOLO

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PASTTHEIA

1886Augmented Reality in literature

(i.e., Eva Futura of Villiers de l’Isle-Adam)

1968Sutherland built the first head-mounted

three dimensional display

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

TITOLO


PRESENTTHEIA

2016The Pokemon-Go phenomenon

2009First use for advertisement (i.e.,Toyota, Lego) and development of first apps

for smartphone


THEIA

Who are the main actors?How are they involved in the innovation process?

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

Redesignand

produce

Detailed design and test

Inventand

produce analytic design

Scientific Knowledge

UniversitiesPublic research centers

Incumbent enterprisesStart-ups

APPLIED RESEARCH PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

Chain-link modelStephen J. Kline, 1985


BASIC RESEARCHTHEIA

Sensorial InterfaceVirtual Object Real Environment

Both to generate virtual inputs and to process information from the environment

(e.g.: pose estimation algorithms) in real-time.

Produce accurate sensors (microphones, gyroscopes,

accelerometers, cameras) and displays

Understand how the brain works in order to provide the most immersive

experience

COMPUTER SCIENCE HW DEVELOPMENT NEUROSCIENCE

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

Redesignand

produce


Inventand




LEADING ACTORSTHEIA

Research field: AR systems in presence of spatial uncertainty

Research field: 3D-objects tracking, pose estimation

Research field: Medical application (AR training SW,

Augmented imaging systems)

Research field: Hybrid inertial and vision tracking for AR

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

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produce


Inventand




SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGETHEIA

Private Enterprises Universities

R&D Centers

GovernmentPublic

Companies

INTELLECTUALPROPERTY

It plays a key role in connecting the main actors in the innovation process.

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

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market

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produce


Inventand




INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PROTECTIONTHEIA

APPROACHES WHY?Industrial secrecy No dominant model yet

No main competitor yetCollaborative community “The better everyone does, the better everyone does”

Knowledge Learning Curve

Lock-in of customers High cost in shifting to AR technology during the early phase

New inventions

Distinctive identification of Software

Original creative Software

PatentsIntellectual Property Rights

Trade marks

Copyright

No dominant design yetRegistered Design Currently used


APPLIED RESEARCHTHEIA

MIT's New Media Lab, USA Hololens in collaboration with

Microsoft

University of Canterbury, New Zealand

Holoplanets

University of Tokyo, JapanTelexistence enabling virtual human

ubiquity

UNIVERSITIES

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

Redesignand

produce


Inventand




APPLIED RESEARCHTHEIA

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

Redesignand

produce


Inventand



andGoogle glasses

3D hand tracking, 6 DOF head position tracking and monitoring.

Smart glasses for industrial applications

SDKs, cloud services and coding support for AG applications.

IT software integration for companies in the AG field.

ENTERPRISES


VOICE OF COSTUMER EXPLOITATIONAR user evaluation through user-based experiments (Gabbard and Swan)THEIA

_Virtual Environment journals and conferences i.e., IEEE conferences such as 2017 will be held in Los Angeles, California on March 18-22, 2017

_Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI, computer human interation) conference i.e., Workshop on Amplification and Augmentation of Human Perception and SIGGRAPH

_Comments made by users of specific observed AR systems i.e., World Wide Web searches for AR

_Experiences using AR systems i.e., Pokémon Go, Virtual try on, etc.

PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT


THEIA

Educational andEntertainment

User Friendly Network information Portable/wearable Real Interaction

WearableVirtual try on Real time information

Social interaction Accessable dataSimple training

GeolocalizationGeolocalization

Reliable data

Real time informationFast flow of information

Real time informationAccessible modelling design

CUSTOMERS’ REQUIREMENTS

E-Commerce Scientific Research

ArmyApplications

Industrial Applications

Basic Research

PotentialMarket

Distributeand

market

Redesignand

produce


Inventand




THEIA

RESPONSES TO CUSTOMER NEEDS

EyeglassesContact lenses

Optical projection systemsTouch and speech recognition

Software development kits (SDK)AR Markup Language (ARML)

Spatial ARGPS

View of historic sites (i.e. High Street Stories App)View of not yet existing sights (i.e. large scale construction in-situ projects)

Head-mounted displays for digitalization of real movements in a virtual space (i.e. Microsoft console “kinect”)

Use of smartglasses for training doctorsCancer surgeon using a virtual reality camera (2016, Royal London Hospital)

Heads-up-on-the-move technology (mapping of soldier’s field of vision, ARC4)

Manteinance and customer service activities (i.e. Mitsubishi electric’s meView)

Virtual fitting rooms to make virtual try-on (BY TryLive brand, Acep TryLive)Phonebook catalogues for mobile strategies (IKEA’s AR app)


THEIAAPPLICATION IN COMMERCE: IKEA’s AR AppPhonebook catalogue as mobile strategy

Value for the CUSTOMERSEnjoying the in-store shopping

Convenience of the online environment

Value for the BUSINESSStock cost savings

Employees’ time savings

Reduced risk of products being damaged


AUGMENTED REALITY IMPACTS

References

THEIA Positive impacts Negative impacts_ Less cell phone, get our hands back

_ Improve the quality of life

_ Communication will be challenging and rewarding, more effective, productive, and enjoyable

_ Improvement and expanding the educational system_ Experience a reality that is based on personal needs and desires

_ Expand the abilities of retailers

_ Explosion of the marketing and advertising

_ Navigate without taking their eyes off the road

_ Huge impact is the medical field (Reducing the chances of medical problems arising after surgery is performed)

_ Allows to go beyond physical boundaries (more than tradi-tional social media)

_ Potential in socials skills training for people with autistic spectrum disorders

_ Find a common ground across differences in age, culture, and linguistic orientation

_ Malware attack by cyber criminals that are looking to capitalize on new technology

_ Development of scams that will victimize the innocent users

_ Psychological impact (virtual vs reality)

_ We’ll be annoyed by constant advertisement

_ Provoke laziness and decrease the interpersonal relationships which is inescapable aspect of social life in the formation and maintenance of real life (Biocca and Levy 1995)

_ Privacy easily Breached

_ Huge impact on the young minds of teenagers who are already susceptible to rapid changes in behavior and beliefs _ Effects that augmented reality can cause on the brain as well as physical effects; especially in teens and children, whose brains are still developing

_ Separates more the haves from the have-nots

_ Could lead to low self-esteem, feelings of worthlessness and in-significance, even self-destructive acts (Cartwright 1994)


MAIN PROBLEMS TO OVERCOMETHEIA

FRAGMENTATION OF THE ECOSYSTEM:Many variation in hardware, operating system and coding

LACK OF STANDARDS:Standards in the data transmission, connection and algo-rithms and modularity in components

TECHNICAL BARRIERS:Large field of view lenses, advance 3D real time rendering, tracking and -display and user-objetcs interaction

FINANCIAL BARRIERS:Cost of device and computer hardware

CULTURAL BARRIERS:Social and privacy issues related to tracking a always-on mass device

OPERATIONAL RISKS:Challenge of introducing new hardware in a not mature market and securing data on the devices.


IMPACTS ON EMPLOYMENTTHEIA

Creating a more linked work environment

(cooperation between workers and workers-employers)

Changes in the employer-employee relationship Changes in the need of employees

Test candidates

Faster and cheaper training

Trying new equipments without risks

Training to emergency situation protocol


LEGAL ISSUESTHEIA

Laws are not clear about AR legal issues

Technology move faster than legislative processes

Commerce of personal dataPrivacy

i.e., placing a virtual characters in a private propriety

Private propertyDifficulty in deciding who is the owner of an idea

Intellectual property rights

Consequences of using wrong data sets

Data quality and reliability of technologies i.e., unfair competition

Improper

NEW MARKETGROWTH

TITOLO


AR GRANTED PATENTS in 2016THEIA

Analysis based on a field of 1229 patentsData extracted from www.patentinspiration.com

Northern America 497

Europe138

Israel4

China, Hong Kong, Taiwan353

Japan, South Korea220

Australia17


LEADING COMPANIESTHEIA


AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIME

Patent inspiration analisys

THEIA

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1999

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2001

Growing trend of the acquirement from 2012 until now

OVERALL


AR SOFTWARE PATENTS OVER TIMETHEIA BY APPLICATION CATEGORIES

Two dominant patented products: Manipulating 3D models for

computer graphics and input arrangements for transferring data.

15

10

5

Performance / costs

Sales

Number of firms

Role of innovation

t

t

t

t

Abernathy-Utterback Model

High rate of innovation and large range of technical solutions i.e. Support of depth-sensing cameras

Markerless AR

Thermal touch

Sensor fusion

2017

Immature technology, high costs and prices i.e. Google Glasses - 1.800 $

SDK Basic - 3.000 $

SDK Pro - 5.500 $

Current sales releted only to innovators AR worldwide revenues in 2016: 5.200.000.000 $

AR worldwide revenue forecasts for 2020: 162.000.000.000 $(International Data Corporation)

High and keeps growing number of firms

NOT A DOMINANT

DESIGN YET!


FLUID PHASETHEIA

Performance / costs

t

2017

In the current scenario

incumbent companies may

be overcome by incoming

ones in a few years.

Incoming companies in AR

The definition of a new

technological paradigm

disruptes traditional

technologies like computers

and mobile devices that have

reached their saturation

phase.

Incumbent companies

in mobile devices


DAVID vs GOLIATHTHEIA


CASE STUDY: MetaioTHEIA

2003Foundation of Metaio in Munich,

Germany, grown out of an internal project within Volkswagen

2014Thermal Touch: infrared

technology to turn any surface into an interactive experience

2005 Release of the first end-consumer AR application called KPS Click & Design

2015Acquired by Apple for 30

millions Euros

2010 to 2012Presentation of the first commercial

2-D Markerless Feature tracking application for print and television on

a consumer mobile device


STATE OF ART: Nowadays technologyTHEIA

3D-Object Tracking algorithm

Digitally renderedobject

Metaio Suite

iOS application

Rea

l Env

ironm

ent Virtual w

orld

MotionRecognition

SDKMetaio Creator

MEMS Sensors

Cloud Storage


FUTURE TREND: ImprovementsTHEIA

3D Object Tracking algorithm

Digital Object

MotionRecognition

Virtual Reality goggles

In-depth cameras

MEMS sensors

Virtual World

Rea

l Env

ironm

ent

Metaio suites directly mounted on portable devices


EMERGING STANDARDSTHEIA

D'fusion Studio: Supported on Microsoft Windows, Mac OS X, Linux, Android and iOS. Markerless recognition of 2D images and tracking of 3D objects. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses.

Vuforia Augmented Reality SDK: Supported on Android and iOS. Recognition of planar images, markers or 3D objects. API in C++, Java, Objective-C and .NET languages and code can be written using XCode, Android

Studio and Unity. Supported on many VR Viewers and smart glasses.

Metaio:Originally developed for iOS and Android. Markerless tracking. Supported on smartphones.

Wikitude: Developed for iOS and Android. Markerless and location-based tracking, HTML augmentations. Plug-ins in C++, Java or Objective-C and can communicate with

JavaScript API. Supported on smartphones and smart glasses.

Performance / costs

t

20172015

Apple mobile technology

«Augmented reality is that big as the smartphone (...) the smartphone is for everyone. (...) AR is not a product per se. (...) is a key software component that would enhance hardware rather than a device or product (...)»

Tim Cook

In 2015:

iPhone users 700.000.000

iPhone market share 37%

Metaio users 150.000

Bonding the new AR technology to its

established role in the market of smart

devices, Apple is likely going to

define the future technological

paradigm.


Based on the data from www.statista.com

WHERE CAN WE GO?


THE FUTURE OF ARTHEIA

Combining AR to IoT, Big Data and wearable technologies

establishing a trustful relationship with our devices providing only the informations we’re willing to give

it’s possible to create a new enriched experience of our reality.

«It’s not about being lost in our devices; it’s about technology receding into the background so that we can engage in human moments»

Dr. Helen Papagiannis, AR Stories


CASE STUDY: Vuzix THEIA

The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing and sale of wearable display de-vices. These devices are worn like eyeglasses, they are mainly: our wearable display products are known commercially as Smart Glasses, Video iWear (Eyewear), head mounted displays or HMDs. They are designed to work with mobile electronic devices, including cell phones, laptop computers, tablets, and portable media players and gaming systems.Vuzix’s aim is primarily the consumer markets for gaming and mobile video while many products are also sold in the consumer, industrial, commercial, academic and medical markets.

SDK and software providers Customer enterprises

STRENGHTS_49 patents and 43 additional patents pending and numerous IP licenses in the Video Eyewear field; _Competences in wireless technology innovation awards;_Collaboration with Intel Corporation to accelerate the introduc-tion of the next generation of Vuzix fashion-based wearable dis-play products for the consumer marketplace;_Key technologies including ultra-thin waveguide optics co-developed under license with Nokia, which will form the basis for many of our future products.

WEAKNESSES_Negative Net Profit (in general due to low sales and high R&D);_Difficulties in financing activities because of the negative Net Profit.

OPPORTUNITIES_Significant Market Opportunity Across Multiple Enterprise Applications (i.e., Industrial Warehousing, Utilities & Power Pharma / Life);_Chance to substitute mobile devices;_Ecosystem of companies through the world;_Growing demand;_Growing economy.

THREATS _Competitive market; _Emergent different standards; _Lack of complementary assets (computing power).


THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix SWOT Analysis


THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (I)

Analyzing Vuzix revenues from 2011 to 2016 it is noticeable that they decrease by 56%. Moreover, the Net Profit of the company is characterized by a negative value and fluctuating trend. Indeed, the average loss is about $9 million with a peak value of $19 mi-llion in 2016. However, R&D investments register an exponential increasing trend. As a consequence, the Return On Investments is declining over the five years of the analysis. Despite these trends, Intel has been investing in Vuzix from several years considering the high intellectual value of the company due to numerous pa-tents.

Based on the data from www.vuzix.com


THEIACASE STUDY: Vuzix conclusion (II)

In addition, Juniper Research predicts that the market for wearable computing and personal display hardware will exceed $53 billion in 3 years. Assuming that Vuzix captures just 2% of this market, it would mean more than $1 billion in sales (2% share is not much for a market leader with all the patents). Nonetheless, a standard valuation for a tech stock would be 3x sales, which implies a $3 billion valuation, a $150+ share price, and a +1875% return.

Based on the data from NASDAQ


THEIA

BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - Current


BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS - FutureTHEIA


THEIASOFTWARE HOUSE vs DEVICE PRODUCER

_Medium-low starting capital

_High availability of skilled software developers

_Growing market

_Higher flexibility thanks to sharing of the same know-how among VR and AR

_Unaffected by standard wars due to ease of adaptation of the product

Less risky in terms of investment but medium to low net returns.

_High starting capital

_Low availability of skilled workforce caused by the unexplored nature of the market

_Growing market

_Low flexibility of manufacturing and expensive tooling machinery

_Risky due to standard wars and the possibility of failure in the case of the emergence of a different prominent product (i.e. Google glasses)

More risky in terms of investment, however, higher net returns in case of success (results based on future market prediction study).


REFERENCES

THEIADhiraj Amin, Sharvari Govilkar, “Comparative study of augmented reality SDK’s” - Department of Computer Engineering, University of Mumbai, PIIT, New Panvel, India

Ronald Azuma, et al. "Recent advances in augmented reality" Computer Graphics and Applications, IEEE 21.6 (2001): 34-47

Mark Billinghurst, Andreas Dünser, Raphaël Grasset, "A Survey of Evaluation Techniques Used in Augmented Reality Studies" - University of Canterbury, 2008

Marco Cantamessa, Francesca Montagna, “Management of innovation and product development: integrating business and technological perspective” - Springer-Verlag London LDD, 2016

Stefan Hen, Ann-Kathrin Hörster, Alexander Karollus "Augmented reality Specialised applications are the key to this fast-growing market for Germany "- Detusche Banck Research Management

Ivan E. Sutherland, “A head-mounted three dimensional display”- University of Utah

https://app.patentinspiration.comhttp://augmentedtomorrow.com/http://www.marxentlabs.com/blog/http://thearea.org/area-blog/ http://www.govtech.com/http://www.indexarsolutions.comhttp://www.ptc-italia.comhttp://www.metaio.com/