Aquifers, Renewable Energy and Desalination in Baja California Sur: Integrated Energy and Water Responses to Development and Climate Changes

by

Andrés Aranda Martínez, Centro Mario Molina

Magdalena AK Muir, Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University; Visiting Scholar, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and

Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware; Researcher, AINA; and Associate Professor, Aarhus University

Kyle Leinweber, Engineer in Training, Calgaryfor

IWA International Water, Energy and Climate Conference 2014 in Mexico City, May 23, 2014 This is Fulbright Research for Baja California Sur Aquifer Desalination

Renewable Energy Project Jointly Implemented with IMPLAN Los Cabos, Centro Mario Molina, SCI Energy Lab and Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC).

Presentation and Discussion

1. Energy and Water Nexus for Baja California Sur

2. Baja California Sur aquifers, hydraulic sub-basins and precipitation maps

3. Aquifers within Muncipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz

4. Renewable Energy and Desalination in Public and Private Sector in Baha California Sur

5. IMPLAN Los Cabos PDU 2040: The Water Case

6. Centro Mario Molina sustainable water case for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz

7. Suggested Next Steps for Baja California Sur Aquifer Desalination Renewable Energy Project

8. Appendix (provided separately)

Energy and Water Nexus• Baja California Sur is arid region that relies on

primarily on precipitation for water resources.

• This precipitation becomes groundwater and is collected in aquifers and aquifer systems.

• There is a public desalination concession in Los Cabos (2006). A second desalination concession has been proposed for Los Cabos, and an initial concession has been proposed for La Paz.

• Many hotels, golf courses and marinas have private desalination and waste water treatment.

• Most electricity is generated by diesel generation.

• While water resources and desalination are required to support economic growth, renewable energy has a role for water resources.

CONAGUA Baja California Sur Hydrologic Sub-basins

CONAGUA Baja California Sur State Aquifers

CONAGUA Baja California Sur Precipitation 1971 to 2000

CONAGUA Baja California Sur Precipitation 2011

Baja California Sur Study Region: Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities

Geology of Baja California Study Region

Baja California Sur Aquifers

• Sustainability of aquifer and aquifer systems can be considered for quantity factors (i.e., flow volumes, recharge, discharge, time, scale, permeability, storage and pressure).

• Sustainability of the aquifers and aquifer based on quality (i.e., land-based and coastal contamination, saline intrusion, and diffusion through aquifers and connected aquifer systems).

• Further knowledge required of capacity and dimensions of aquifers for the Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz, including issues such as whether the aquifers are connected in aquifer system which has quantity and quality implications.

CONAGUA Aquifer Clave No

CONAGUA: Estimates of Aquifer Water Availability

IMPLAN Los Cabos Baja California Sur Precipitation

Aquifers in Municipality of Los Cabos .

Aquifer Analysis: Porosity

Porosity is the fraction (or percentage) of void space within the aquifer formation.

Water can be stored in pores.

Pores can be interconnected.

� = �����

���

= � − ���

��������

Where:� : Porosity (-)

����� : Volume of empty space (m^3)

��� : Volume of sample or aquifer (m^3)

��� : Density of sample or medium (kg/m^3)

�������� :Density of rock particles

(kg/m^3)

Aquifer Analysis: Permeability

Permeability is the property of a porous material to transmit fluids under a pressure differential.

Flow of a fluid in porous media characterized by Darcy’s Law

There is no direct relationship between porosity and permeability

Darcy’s Law:

� =��

�

Where:� : Volumetric flow rate (m^3/s)

� : Permeability (m^2)

μ : Viscosity (kg/(m*s) )

� : Pressure (kg/(m*s^2))

� = (�

��� +

�

�� +

�

�! ) : i, j, and k are

unit vector components with respect to the directions of x, y, and z respectfully

Pore Contamination

Diffusion of Contaminants

Diffusion is the natural phenomenon of a substance moving from a state of high concentration to low.

Concentration is the driving force.

Transmits contaminants through pores and fractures.

Fick’s 2nd Law

#�$%

��$=

�%

��

Where:# : Diffusivity constant (m^2/s)

% : Concentration (mol/m^3)

� : Distance (m)

� : Time (s)

Graphical Illustration of Diffusion

San Jose del Cabo: Surface land use and possible contamination of San Jose Aquifer

San Jose del Cabo

La Paz AquifersLa Paz aquifers is in basin to the south and south east of the Municipality of La Paz.

The precipitation model shows that the heaviest precipitation occurs in higher areas away from coast.

Precipitation runoff will flow towards the lower lands near La Paz.

Best area for groundwater in basin may be in southeast fractured granite.

Vulnerability to saline intrusion in coastal areas of La Paz basin.

La Paz Basin

Aquifer exploitation in La Paz Basin

La Paz Basin and Elavation Map

La Paz Basin Geology Model

La Paz Basin Precipitation Model

Las Paz Basin Distribution of Recharge Areas

Proposed Gold Mining Projects in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and Aquifer/Basin Implications

• Estimated 1.7 million ounces of gold, which will be worth more than $2 billion.

• Argonaut Gold San Antonio mine is largest with surface area of 46,000 hectares.

• Open pit heap leach mine with 7 hills tops and 200 M tonnes rock to be processed.

• 50 M tonnes rock to be processed with cyanide, 150 M tonnes piled in exposed hills.

• Naturally occurring arsenic in rock.

• Water concessions from nearby ranches, or use groundwater, seawater or desalinated water.

Argonaut Gold San Antonio Mining Concession

San Antonio Mine and Aquifer Impacts

• Historic mining and contamination has occurred in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and San Juan de Los Planes basin.

• Size and nature of current proposed gold mining operations is immense.

• San Juan de Los Planes is nearby agricultural region, and possible contamination risks for aquifer.

• Important questions are possible risks of proposed San Antonio Mine and other proposed mines to aquifers in the La Paz Basin and San Jose Aquifer that Los Cabosand La Paz municipalities depend upon.

North America

North West Mexico

Baja Peninsula

Baja California Sur Estate

Population:

• Cabo San Lucas: 128,057

• San José del Cabo: 87,488

• Total: 215,545

Surface:

• Cabo San Lucas: 3,641 Ha.

• San José del Cabo: 4,234 Ha.

• Corridor: 1,438 Ha.

• Total: 9,313 Ha

Average annual temperature:

• 18 to 22 Celsius

200 mm of rain per year

Main economic activity:

• Tourism (12,621 hotel rooms available in the area)

Hurracains.

• 1970 to 2010 = 20 events.

IMPLAN: Los Cabos Context

San José del Cabo

Cabo San Lucas

Desalination and Renewable EnergyPublic and private desalination projects underway in the Municipality of Los Cabos.

Los Cabos Municipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a concession, and a further concession is being considered.

A public desalination project operated under a concession is being considered for the Municipality of La Paz.

Subject to private finance and concession, Los Cabos is considering renewable energy project.

Los Cabos uses hydrocarbons to generate power.

Extensive private desalination projects in Los Cabosin tourism sector due to tariffs and water shortfalls.

Large and small scale examples of renewable energy and desalination briefly explored.

Built in 2007 with an investment of $30 Million, it has beenfinanced by the Fondo de Inversión en Infraestructura (FINFRA), a credit by the Banco Nacional de Obras y Servicios Públicos, S.N.C. (BANOBRAS) and Risk Capital Investment by (Grupo OHL).

This is the first large scale desalination plant to be constructed in Mexico, and the Los Cabos Plant has a capacity of 17,280 m3/ day, 200 lts/s, which is satisfyingthe needs of approximately 50,000 persons.

This is a reverse osmosis plant.

IMPLAN : Los Cabos Desalination Concession

Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

Los Cabos Municipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a municipal concession.

Private desalination used to meet all or part of water demand for many hotels, resorts, golf courses and marinas located in Cabos San Lucas, San Jose Del Cabos, and the tourism corridor between these two urban centers.

Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

Desalination: Small Portable Solar Unit

Desalination: Small Scale Solar Plant in Oman.

Desalination: Large Scale Solar Energy Plant in UAE

Integration of Renewable Energy and Desalination

Two models are suggested for how renewable energy may be used in public and private desalination projects in Baja California Sur:

1) Separate renewable energy facilities can be developed for each desalination project. This is more feasible for smaller desalination projects with energy storage, which are in an isolated location, or where the desalination technologies can use intermittent renewable energy.

2) Designated renewable energy can be provided from regional or municipal electricity grids and systems. This may be more suitable for larger desalination projects which require more electricity or where the desalination technologies benefit from a more consistent electricity supply.

IMPLAN Los CabosLos Cabos’ Municipal Planning Institute

LOS CABOS WATER CASE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE

URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLAN (PDU 2040)

Production of water in Los Cabos, 2010.Population growth in Los Cabos, 2010.

Average consumption of water per inhabitant in Los Cabos: 369 litres/day.

National average consumption of water per inhabitant: 279 litres/day.(CONAGUA, 2009)

IMPLAN: Water Consumption

Recycled Water System

What we have:6 Water TreatmentPlants26 Linear Km. of RecycledWater Lines

In what we use it?

10 Golf Courses.

Water Sources

What we have:1 Desalintaion Plant10 Groundwater Wells

In what we use it?Drinking water for 2 cities

IMPLAN Existing key elementsWater treatment and reuse

Strategy: The implementation of Natural Sistems such as

dams and other would allow more water collection andinfiltration thus a wider spectrum of water managementstrategies. The estimated impact of infiltration

is 352.000 m3 per year in the aquifer.

150 Km. of Linear Parks on Streams or dry beds.

The urban structure maintains its natural bed features

such as permeable riverbed and does not transform their

conditions and directions. The aim of urban planning inLos Cabos is to integrate the environment and its

characteristics in the development of urban projects.

Objective: Maintain the equilibrium of aquifers’ levels.Avoid over-exploitation of aquifers, moderating the

operation of each of the aquifers at levels that

allow recovery and maintenance.

San José Estuary

The open urban space as main structuring element of the city I

IMPLAN Los Cabos: Long term Vision PDU 2040

Urban systems in areas of

extreme aridity and

sustainable water management:

Case for Los Cabos and La Paz

Selected slides extracted from complete proposal,

available in the appendix of the presentation.

Centro Mario Molina Background

The target is to achieve

sustainable planning and

management of cities, urban

development promoting low

carbon intensity schemes,

rational use of natural resources,

particularly water and energy.

Promoting sustainable

urban policies to boost

economic growth socially

equitable and

environmentally

responsible.

The Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studieson Energy and Environment is a non-profitindependent association, constituted in 2004to give continuity and consolidate in Mexicothe activities that throughout his life,Professor Mario Molina has accomplished. Itsmain purpose is to find practical, realistic andin-depth solutions to problems related withprotecting the environment, the use ofenergy and prevention of climate change, inorder to foster sustainable development.

“The Mario Molina Center is a bridge of practical

solutions between science and public policies on

energy and the environment to foster sustainable

development”

I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Interpretation of results

Availability calculated (theoretical)

D = 29.29 Mm3/yr

Availability reported (real)D = 34.5 Mm3/yr

• The production (extraction) values reported by the OO are greater than the

volumes obtained following the methodology of calculation of CONAGUA.

• Surface water is not likely to benefit in full, however, to establish a baseline

was considered the theoretical value obtained from the calculation

methodology.

• Even when there is no water available in the aquifer, we continue drawing

water to supply the city.

Availability calculated ≠ Availability reported

Availability = VolREPDA + Dsurface

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

Year Period[yr]Availability

Mm3 ∆D [Mm3] ∆D [%]

2013 0 42.72 --- ---

2018 5 39.05 -3.67 -8.6%

2028 10 23.21 -15.84 -40.6%

2048 20 29.01 5.80 25.0%

2078 30 34.45 5.43 18.7%

Changes in water availability scenario A2

With the calculated values was obtained varying the availabilityfor each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

2009 2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078

Mm

3

Year

Water availability

TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. / www.grupotaaf.com

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

Changes in water availability scenario A2

With the calculated values was obtained varying the availabilityfor each city (∆D%) considering climate change scenarios.

34.18

32.2822.86 21.46 21.74

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2012 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2072 2082

Water availability [Mm3]

Year Period [Years] Availability

theoretical[Mm3] ∆D [Mm3] ∆D theoretical(%)

2013 0 34.18 --- ---

2018 5 32.28 -1.9 -5.60%

2028 10 22.86 -9.42 -29.20%

2048 20 21.46 -1.4 -6.10%

2078 30 21.74 0.27 1.30%

Year ∆D (%)AvailabilityM

m3

2010 34.51*

2011 -14.8% 29.40

2013 38.6% 40.75

2018 -8.6% 37.25

2028 -40.6% 22.14

2048 25.0% 27.68

2078 18.7% 32.86

� To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it wasapplied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of waterproduced by the OO in 2010.

Year ∆D (%)AvailabilityM

m3

2010 34.51*

2011 -0.8% 34.25

2013 0.0% 34.25

2018 10.4% 37.82

2028 8.9% 41.19

2048 -13.0% 35.84

2078 -18.2% 29.31

Variation of availability A2 scenario “Los Cabos”

Variation of availability A1B scenario “Los Cabos”

To calculate the gap variation, it was considered

the availability of the more adverse scenario (in

this case A2).

*Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OOMSAPAS

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Analysis bases (variation of water availability

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2013 2018 2028 2048 2078

A2

A1B

Variation in the availability of scenario cc

Mm

3

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per dayand drinking water coverage provided by the OO Los Cabos(OOMSAPAS), it was calculated the water demand [Mm3/year]

� Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

PARAMETER UNITYear

2013 2018 2023 2028

Population Inhab. 253,577 280,878 311,119 344,616

Drinking water coverage % 89.90% 90.80% 91.70% 92.50%

Annual production l/s 1,172 1,313 1,486 1,640

Annual production Mm3/año 36.96 41.39 46.3 51.73

Endowment l/inhab*día 444 444 444 444

consumption l/inhab*día 282 282 282 282

Annual increase in population inhab. 5,133 5,686 6,298 6,976

Required extraction l/s 26.4 29.25 32.39 35.88

Variation of drinking water coverage % 89.86% 90.85% 91.74% 92.54%

� To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it wasapplied the theoretical ∆D% for each year to the amount of waterproduced by the OO in 2013.

Variation of availability A2 scenario “La Paz”

Variation of availability A1B scenario “La Paz”

To calculate the gap variation, it was considered

the availability of the more adverse scenario (in

this case A2).*Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OO SAPA

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Analysis bases (variation of water availability)

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mm

3

Año

Variation in the availability of scenario cc

Disponibilidad

(A2)

Disponibilidad

(A1B)

Year ∆D [%] Availability[Mm3]

2013 25.48*

2018 9.46% 27.89

2028 0.57% 28.05

2048 -6.61% 26.2

2078 -21.09% 20.67

Year ∆D [%] Availability [Mm3]

2013 25.48*

2018 -5.60% 24.07

2028 -29.20% 17.05

2048 -6.10% 16

2078 1.30% 16.21

Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per dayand drinking water coverage provided by the OO La Paz(SAPA), it was calculated the water demand [Mm3/year]

� Basis of analysis (demand calculation)

I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps)

PARAMETER UNITYear

2013 2018 2023 2028

Population inhab. 235,268 273,005 316,795 367,609

Drinking water coverage % 97.50% 97.90% 98.20% 98.40%

Annual production l/s 953 1,106 1,283 1,489

Annual production Mm3/año 30.06 34.88 40.47 46.96

Endowment l/inhab*day 350 350 350 350

consumption l/inhab*day 210 210 210 210

Annual increase in population Inhab. 6,897 8,003 9,287 10,777

Required extraction l/s 27.94 32.42 37.62 43.66

Variation of drinking water coverage % 97.52% 97.86% 98.16% 98.41%

I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps)

� Results

30.1

34.9

40.5

47.0

25.524.1

21.26

17.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2013 2018 2023 2028

Gaps

Demanda anual Disponibilidad (A2)

47%

Gaps

63%31

%15%

Mm3

II. 1 Identifying actions (benchmarking)

National average coverage

47.4% CONAGUA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Puerto

Peñasco

La Paz Celaya Mazatlán Tecate Puerto

Vallarta

Saltillo Los Cabos

17

30

8594 96 97 99 99

Micrometering (%)

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

Mazatlán Puerto

Vallarta

Puerto

Peñasco

Saltillo Celaya Tecate Los Cabos La Paz

$67.50

$122.92

$162.80$177.80 $179.83

$210.40

$240.84

$323.80

$/m

on

th

Expenditure on water(rate of 20 m3)

Información PIGOO 2011

Information PIGOO 2011

Baja California Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project: Suggested Next Steps to be Agreed Upon By All Research Partners

Develop further understanding of aquifers and quality and quantity issues for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.

Explore role that renewable energy can play in municipal energy systems, and for public and private desalination projects in Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.

Evaluate water sources, uses and management (including desalination) for Los Cabos and La Paz in the context of IMPLAN’s urban development plan and Centro Mario Molina’s sustainable water management.

Consider sustainable destination tourism, climate adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Acknowledgements for Presentation

Fulbright Scholarship and participating universities implemented by Magdalena AK Muir.

Kyle Leinweber, Engineer in Training, for work on aquifer assessment.

Alfonso Rivera, Adjunct Professor at at Université Laval and Université du Québec, for aquifer advice.

.IMPLAN Los Cabos for slides, digital maps, data, and information (Alex Gallardo).

Centro Mario Molina for water scenarios, water methodology and slides on water resources (Andrés Aranda Martínez).

Sustainable Cities International (SCI) Energy Lab (Jane McRae and Bertine Stelzer).

“Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos” by SCI Affiliated Researcher Eric Porse with IMPLAN Los Cabos.

For further information contact:Andrés Aranda Martínez, aranda@centromariomolina.orgCentro Mario Molina, Mexico

Magdalena AK Muir mam2456@Columbia.edu & mamuir@ucalgary.caAssociate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center at Earth Institute, Columbia University; Visiting Scholar, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware; Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America; Associate Professor, Aarhus University Herning & Centre for Energy Technologies; and Advisory Board Member, Climate, Coastal and Marine Union (EUCC)

This presentation and research supported by Fulbright Canada under the Fulbright Canada- RBC Award; the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University; the Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and the Mangone Center for Marine Policy in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware; and Aarhus University Herning and the Center for Energy Technologies.

References for IWA Conference Presentation

Following are the references for IWA Conference presentation and the submitted conference paper, Preliminary Assessment of Water Resources including Climate Considerations for the Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities in the State of Baja California Sur, Mexico by Magdalena Muir, Kyle Leinweber and Andrés Aranda Martínez .

References for IWA Conference PresentationArgonaut Gold (14 March 2014) www.argonautgold.com/_resources/projects/San-Antonio-Project-District-Schematic-Map.pdfSan Antonio Gold Project Baja California Sur, Mexico NI43-101 Technical Report (2001), p. 28 (March 14, 2014) www.argonautgold.com/_resources/projects/San_Antonio_NI_43-101_Technical_Report_August_2_2010.pdfCarrilo A., Drever J.I. Absorption of arsenic by natural aquifer material in the San Antonio-El Triunfo mining area, Baja California, Mexico. Environmental Geology, (September 1998), Volume 35, Issue 4, pp 251-257.

Carillo-Chavez A., Drever, J.I., Martinez M., Arsenic content and groundwater geochemistry of the San Antonio-El Triunfo, Carrizal and Los Planes aquifers in southernmost Baja California, Mexico, Environmental Geology, October 2000, Volume 39, Issue 11, pp 1295-1303.

Centro Mario Molina, Sistemas Urbanos en Zonas de Extrema Aridez, Propuestas para el Manejo Sustentable del Agua (November 2013).

References for IWA Conference Presentation

CONAGUA: Dario Oficial, Segunda seccion (Dec. 20 2013), and Mexican Official Standard NOM- 011 -CNA -2000 Conservation of Water Resources (2012).

Cruz-Falcón A., Troyo-Diéguez E., Fraga-Palomino H. and Vega-Mayagoitia J. Location of the Rainfall Recharge Areas in the Basin of La Paz: Figure 2. Delimitation of the basin of La Paz, and Terrain elevation model (TEM); Figure 4. Geology model of the basin of La Paz; and Figure 8. Precipitation model of the basin of La Paz (18 March 2014). http://www.intechopen.com/books/water-resources-planning-development-and-management/location-of-the-rainfall-recharge-areas-in-the-basin-of-la-paz-bcs-m-xico McEvoy J. Desalination and Development: The Sociological and Technological Transformation of the Gulf of California. Doctorate dissertation, University of Arizona (2013). http://arizona.openrepository.com/arizona/bitstream/10150/301684/1/azu_etd_12924_sip1_m.pdf (April 18, 2014).

References for IWA Conference Presentation

Pombo A., Breceda A., and Valdez Aragon A., Desalinization and Wastewater Reuse as Technological Alternatives in an Arid, Tourism Booming Region of Mexico. Frontera nortev.20 n.39 México ene./June 2008.

Porse E., Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos, report of SCI Affiliated Researcher Porse in cooperation with IMPLAN Los Cabos (2013).

PRONACOSE, Materiales del primer Taller de capacitación Apoyos cartográficos: Baja California Sur: 01 precipitation normal 71 00 (11 March 2014) http://pronacose.uacj.mx/Carpeta1erTaller/6.%20APOYOS%20CARTOGRAFICOS/01_Baja%20California%20Sur/