apwafall2015 speaker powerpoint-khan...
TRANSCRIPT
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SPEAKERS:
Manage Your Project
Risks Like a Pro!
Zahid Khan, PE, PMP – PMO Manager
King County Solid Waste Division
Shobuz Ikbal, PMP, PE
Learning Objectives
At the end of this session attendees will be able to:
• Describe importance of project risks management
• Discuss risk management planning approach
• Apply risk management and mitigation strategies to projects
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Presentation Outline
• Understanding project risks
• Project Risk Management steps
• Formal vs. Informal risk management
• Recommendations
APWA | FALL 2015 CONFERENCE
Presentation Outline
• Understanding project risks
• Project Risk Management steps
• Formal vs. Informal risk management
• Recommendations
APWA | FALL 2015 CONFERENCE
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What is Risk?Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negativeeffect on one or more project
objectives.
This definition is taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 559.
Risk Case Study #1: Pedestrian Bridge, Sparwood, BC
• 300 ft steel bridge on Elk River
• Risk: Unknown mitigation measures for environmental clearance
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Risk case study #1: Pedestrian Bridge, Sparwood, BC
Mitigation measures:
1. Fish habitat restoration
2. Head clearance for fisherman
Case Study # 2: New Water System, Mestia, Georgia
• River intake
• Water treatment plant on hillside
• Risk: ?
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Case Study # 2: New Water System, Mestia, Georgia
• Top soil not available locally
• 10x increase in cost
• Construction delay
Project Risk Observations
• Risks are always uncertain
• Categories of risks
• Types of risks
• Risk mitigation
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Risk Categories
• Positive risks
• Negative risk
• Known-unknown
• Unknown-unknown
Types of Risks
• Technical
• External
• Organizational
• Project Management
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Presentation Outline
• Understanding project risks
• Project Risk Management steps
• Formal vs. Informal risk management
• Recommendations
APWA | FALL 2015 CONFERENCE
What is Project Risk Management?
Project risk management can be viewed as a
series of activities that are planned to achieve success by proactively integrating risk evaluation
in the selection of alternatives, and then controlling
the risks associated with the implementation of the
selected alternative.
NASA, (2013). Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements. [Electronic Version] Retrieved on August 14th, 2013 from
http://nodis3.gsfc.nasa.gov/
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Project Risk Management Steps
• Plan Risk Management
• Identify risks
• Qualify and quantify risks
• Develop risk response strategies
• Estimate risk management costs
Plan Risk Management
• Define how to approach, plan, execute, and monitor project risks
• Includes procedures and guidelines
• Initiate at the project start
• Perform in planning phase
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 313.
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Identify Risks
“…which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics.”
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project
Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 319.
Purpose of Qualitative Risk Analysis
• Prioritize risks
• Focus on high exposure risks first
• Provide an early warning
• Develop risk response plan
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Plan Risk Responses• “…actions to enhance opportunities
and to reduce threats…”
• Assign an owner to deal with risks
• Identify risk trigger
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 342-343.
Risk Based Scheduling • Three-Point Estimating:
• Most Likely (ML)
• Optimistic (O)
• Pessimistic (P)
“Activity duration using weighted average”
= (O + P + 4ML) / 6
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) –
Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Page 205-206.
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Risk Champion
• A Risk Champion often initiates project risk
management
• Initiated by project manager or a team member
• Can motivate team to handle risks
Risk Management ReserveContingency Reserve
– Amount of the budget needed above the estimate to reduce the overall risks
– Used for “Known-Unknowns”
Management Reserve– Fund used for “Unknown-Unknowns”
– Not a project expense (organizational expense)
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Presentation Outline
• Understanding project risks
• Project Risk Management steps
• Formal vs. Informal risk management
• Recommendations
APWA | FALL 2015 CONFERENCE
Formal vs. Informal Risk Management
Formal
• Risk Management Policy
• Planned in Advance
• Proactive
• Strategic Response
• Monitoring
Informal
• No formal plan
• Reactive
• Damage control
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Case Study # 3 – Informal Risk
Management
Des Moines Creek Basin
� Basin area - 5.8
square miles.
� Two branches,
two main
tributaries.
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Des Moines Creek Plateau Reach
Conceptual Plan
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Geotechnical Investigation
Discovery Of Arsenic!
• Two phased sampling
• Arsenic found in soil &
groundwater
• Comprehensive planning to
handle arsenic
• Arsenic transport modeling
• Voluntary Cleanup Program
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Case Study # 3 Observations
• No formal Risk Management Plan
• Risks were identified during the design
• Risk mitigations were developed
• Project cost increased during the design
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The PMI Registered Education Provider logo is a registered mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Lower Tolt River
Floodplain Reconnection Project
Case Study # 4: Formal Risk Management
Lower Tolt River Floodplain Reconnection Project
The PMI Registered Education Provider logo is a registered mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Tolt River
Snoqualmie River
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The PMI Registered Education Provider logo is a registered mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
Campground
Nov 7, 2006: Note Snoqualmie backwater influence
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The PMI Registered Education Provider logo is a registered mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
The PMI Registered Education Provider logo is a registered mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
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Risk Register
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Case Study # 4 Observations
• A Risk Management Plan was developed early
• Risks were identified during early design
• Risks were qualified for further analysis
• Response strategies were developed
• Contingency reserve funds allocated
Formal vs. Informal Risks
Formal
• Formal Risk Management Plan
• Risks identified early
• Contingency reserve fund
Informal
• No formal Risk Management Plan
• Risks identified during design
• No contingency reserve fund
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Presentation Outline
• Understanding project risks
• Project Risk Management steps
• Formal vs. Informal risk management
• Recommendations
APWA | FALL 2015 CONFERENCE
Recommendations (1 of 2)
� Plan Risk Management
� Hold Risk Workshops
� Identify and qualify risks early
� Plan risk response
� Identify Risk Champions
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Recommendations (2 of 2)
�Formal risk management is ideal.
� Informal risk management is better than no
risk management.
�Senior management should foster a project management culture and empower
employees to become risk champions.
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Zahid Khan, PE, PMP
(206) 477-5225
http://www.linkedin.com/in/zahidykhan
Shobuz Ikbal, PMP, PE
(206) 501-4496
Contact Information