apegga pd conference april 22-23, 2004 what engineers need to know about climate change david j....

APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004

WHAT ENGINEERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

David J. Lapp, P.Eng.Manager, Professional Practice

Canadian Council of Professional Engineers

Presentation Outline

Introduction to CCPE Introduction to Climate Change and its

Terminology The Science of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change Engineering and Climate Change CCPE’s Impact and Adaptation Action

Plan Concluding Remarks References/Sources

Introduction to CCPE

CCPE is the federation of 12 provincial and territorial associations/ordre and funded primarily by them through member fees

Voice of its constituent members in national and international affairs

Promotes greater understanding of the nature, role and contribution of engineering to society

What does CCPE do?

Research, surveys and policy development

Federal government relations Member services (life, auto and home

insurance, investment programs) Holds official marks on the terms

engineer, engineering, professional engineer, P.Eng., consulting engineer, and their French equivalents

What does CCPE do?

CCPE has two major subcommittees: Canadian Engineering Accreditation

Board (CEAB) - accreditation Canadian Engineering Qualifications

Board (CEQB) – qualification and practice

CEQB has a subcommittee called the Environment and Sustainability Committee which is where the climate change issue resides

Introduction to Climate Change and its Terminology

‘Climate’ is not ‘weather’

Climate is ‘average weather’- and its variability- for a particular region- over a period of time

Includes many different elements

Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get

‘Climate change’ can be confused with climate

variability Climate change is a shift in ‘climate’ relative to a given reference time period

Climate change on a century time scale can be called climate variability on millennial time scales

Climate variability is often considered internal to the climate system

Climate change is normally caused by external factors

Climate Change – What is it?

Climate change is concerned about significant Climate change is concerned about significant changes in key climate variables such as:changes in key climate variables such as:

TemperatureTemperature Precipitation and atmospheric moisturePrecipitation and atmospheric moisture Snow coverSnow cover Extent of land and sea iceExtent of land and sea ice Sea levelSea level Patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulationPatterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation Extreme weather and climate eventsExtreme weather and climate events Overall features of climate variabilityOverall features of climate variability

Climate Change – Why is it happening

(1)Past is prologue – Earth has (1)Past is prologue – Earth has experienced many different climate experienced many different climate regimes throughout geological history regimes throughout geological history and will undoubtedly experience them and will undoubtedly experience them in the future.in the future.

(2)Climate change is a naturally occurring (2)Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon at a geological time scale phenomenon at a geological time scale and more or less hospitable to varying and more or less hospitable to varying life forms, including human beingslife forms, including human beings

Climate Change – Why is it happening

Any factor that alters the radiation Any factor that alters the radiation received from the Sun or lost to space, received from the Sun or lost to space, or alters the redistribution of energy or alters the redistribution of energy within the atmosphere and between the within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere, land and ocean, can affect atmosphere, land and ocean, can affect climate change.climate change.

Climate Change – Radiative Forcing

Changes in the net radiative energy Changes in the net radiative energy available to the global Earth-available to the global Earth-atmosphere system is termed a atmosphere system is termed a “radiative forcing”. Positive radiative “radiative forcing”. Positive radiative forcings tend to have a warming effect forcings tend to have a warming effect while Negative radiative forcings tend to while Negative radiative forcings tend to have a have a

cooling effectcooling effect

Radiative ForcingsRadiative Forcings

Factor Radiative Forcing Timescale

Greenhouse Gases PositiveDecades/Centuries

Tropospheric Aerosols Negative WeeksVolcanic Activities Negative YearsNuclear Explosions/Asteroids Negative

ImmediateChanged Solar Output Either VariesOcean Circulation Either Varies

Greenhouse Gas Levels

GHGGHG Pre-IRPre-IR 19981998 ChangeChange Atmos Atmos LifeLife

CO2 280 ppm 365 ppm 1.5 ppm/yr5 to 200 yr

CH4 700 ppb 1745 ppb 7.0 ppb/yr12 yr

N2O 270 ppb 314 ppb 0.8 ppb/yr114 yr

CFC-11 zero 268 ppt -1.4 ppt/yr45 yr

HFC-23 zero 14 ppt 0.55 ppt/yr260 yr

CF4 40 ppt 80 ppt 1 ppt/yr >50,000 yr

Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events

Mitigation - an intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a driver for climatic change. This strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic change.

Adaptation - an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

Definitions

Vulnerability = f ( Exposure, Adaptive Capacity)

Susceptibility (to Harm)

Risk

HazardStimulus

Coping AbilityResilience

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate, including climate variability and extremes.

It is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Vulnerability

How the climate is changing and its impacts

Global mean mean surface temperature

(combined land/ocean) is rising

CO2 concentrations are now unprecedented in at least

the past 400,000 years

Highest concentration in last 400,000 yearsHighest concentration in last 400,000 years

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000260

280

300

320

340

360

380

CO

2 C

on

cen

tra

tion

(p

pm

v)

Winters in most of Canada are likely to become wetter

But summers in interior North America are expected to become

drier

Sea ice will retreat, particularly in summer

Sea levels will rise

-50

0

50

100

150

200

0.2-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-3.2 3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6 25.6+

Rainfall Intensity (mm/day)

% C

han

ge

in F

req

ue

ncy

Inland flood disasters may become more frequent as rains become

more intense

The frequency and severity of droughts are also likely to

increase in southern Canada0

20

40

60

Retu

rn P

eri

od (

years

)

10 15 20 25 30

Length of Dry Spell (days)

Today

~2070

Central North America

Hot days per year (30C+)

0 20 40 60 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

Toronto

Quebec

Fredricton

2080-21001961-1990

Disaster losses

Worldwide during the 1990s there were: more than 2,500 natural disasters more than 650,000 people killed more than CDN$ 1 trillion in damage losses were 10-fold greater than

during the 1950s

0

30

60

90

120

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

Weather related disasters

Geophysical disasters

Number

Canadian natural disasters

Insured losses (Constant US Dollars, 2000 values)

Economic losses (Constant US Dollars, 2000 values) - - - - - Trend of economic losses

_____ Trend of insured losses

Global costs of natural disasters are rising

0

250

500

750

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

US$ billions (2001 prices)

Global natural disaster losses

Recent Extreme Events with Severe Economic Impacts

Red River flood, Manitoba

Prairie drought, AB and SKStorm surge, Charlottetown PEI

Saguenay flood,Quebec

Impacts on Communities (1)

Infrastructure Runoff, landslides and flooding Water intake/control infrastructure Accelerated deterioration Damage Reduced security of energy supply Design specifications/margin of safety in

building codes


Water Resources Increased capacity demands on sewage

and water control Pressures on source water resources

and changed patterns (especially glacial runoff and groundwater)

Social and economic impacts (tourism and recreation)

Degraded water quality


Human Health Vector borne and waterborne

diseases Extreme heat and cold events Deteriorating air quality Secondary impacts (mold, increased

transportation accidents and fatalities)

Projected Effects of Climate Change in Alberta

Increase in daily minimum temperatures Warmer winters (shorter ski seasons, longer golf

seasons?) More frequent periods of drought in southern regions Reduction of glaciers and changes in spring and

summer runoff Increased frequency and severity of extreme

weather events Water quality and water supply – case study of

impact on Calgary water supply underway Shifts in the nature and coverage of forests Reduction of permafrost coverage

Climate Change Challenges

Long-term reduction of CO2 is a greater challenge as energy use will continue to rise. Progress is needed across the board: continued efficiency improvements, more renewable energy and new technologies that produce little or no CO2 or that capture and sequester it”

Study of Earth’s climate suggests that small forces maintained long enough can cause large climate change (non-linear effects, 29th day)

The debate over climate change is highly charged because of the inherent economic stakes

Climate ChangeSo what?

If current climate change is natural, then If current climate change is natural, then all we can do is try to adaptall we can do is try to adapt

If human activity is causing or If human activity is causing or contributing to climate change, then contributing to climate change, then mitigative measures should be consideredmitigative measures should be considered

Approach seems to be to assume climate Approach seems to be to assume climate change is happening, while accepting change is happening, while accepting considerable uncertainty surrounding the considerable uncertainty surrounding the issue. We have certainly not heard the issue. We have certainly not heard the final word on the subject. final word on the subject.

Climate Change Measures in Alberta

Climate Change Adaptation Planning – 12 government departments with Climate Change Central

Legislation in place to require designs to account for future changes in emissions standards, limits and guidelines

Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Water sustainability strategy Alberta government aims by 2020 to reduce

emissions intensity by 50 percent below 1990 levels

Engineering and Climate Change

Addressing Climate Change:Mitigation and Adaptation

Climate Changeincluding variability

Impactsautonomous adaptation

Policy Responses

Mitigationvia GHG sources

and sinks

PlannedAdaptation

Mitigation

An intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a driver for climatic change. This strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic change.

Kyoto Protocol

What is it?

Current Status

Kyoto Protocol – What is it? Negotiated in December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan Legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries

will reduce their collective emissions of some greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut.)

The goal is to lower overall emissions from six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008 - 12.

National targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland. Canada is targeted with a 6% reduction

Kyoto Protocol – What is it (2) Each Annex I (developed) country has agreed to limit

emissions to the levels described in the protocol, but many countries have limits that are set above their current production.

These "extra amounts" can be purchased by other countries on the open market. So, for instance, Russia currently easily meets its targets, and can sell off its credits for millions of dollars to countries that don't yet meet their targets, Canada for instance.

This rewards countries that meet their targets, and provides financial incentives to others to do so as soon as possible.

Kyoto Protocol – Current Status As of 2002, 104 countries have ratified the protocol, including

Canada, People's Republic of China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the fifteen countries of the European Union.

19 countries have signed the protocol but not ratified it. Of those eight are Annex I countries: Australia (not intending to ratify), Croatia , Liechtenstein , Monaco , Russia -- Russia has changed stances on the issue several times, with conflicting statements from various ministers. The current stance (as of December 2003) is that they have significant reservations, but are undecided. Switzerland The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by the Senate but not yet by the House of Representatives. Ukraine -- Ukraine is expected to ratify the treaty. United States (not intending to ratify the treaty).

Measures under the Kyoto Protocol will only delay projected warming slightly

Based in IMAGE 2 model output

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100300

400

500

600

700

800

IS92a

Kyoto to 2100

2xCO2

Year

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

pp

mv)

Mitigation Strategies for Buildings

Develop and adapt energy-saving Develop and adapt energy-saving technologiestechnologies

Construction: material selection (minimum Construction: material selection (minimum use of natural resources), design for use of natural resources), design for disassembly, efficient and durable disassembly, efficient and durable envelope, durabilityenvelope, durability

O&M: clean renewable energy, energy O&M: clean renewable energy, energy efficient HVAC and lighting systemsefficient HVAC and lighting systems

Building renewal/deconstruction: waste Building renewal/deconstruction: waste management, deconstruction practice, management, deconstruction practice, effective and efficient recyclingeffective and efficient recycling

Climate Change – Emerging Technologies

Advanced technologiesAgricultural WasteAgricultureAir monitoringBuildingsCoal combustionCoal mining technologyCombined cycleCombined heat & powerCombined renewable energy

technologiesElectricalEngines & transmissionsForestry & energy cropsFuel cellsGas cleaning systemsGeothermal energy

Heat recovery & storage High temperature

technologies Hydroelectricity Hydrogen Industrial technologies Industrial waste Landfill gas Lighting Municipal waste Nuclear technology Ocean energy Oil & natural gas

technology Solar energy (heat) Solar power Transport

Adaptation

An adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic changes, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

Kyoto Protocol and Adaptation

All parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [KYOTO] have a requirement, under Articles 4.1 and 4.8, to assess their national vulnerability and develop strategies for adaptation to climate changes.

They are also required to invest in climate research and integrated risk assesment, to educate and to communicate this knowledge both nationally and internationally. 2005 is the first deadline to report progress.

Types of Adaptation

Anticipatory – before impacts are observed (proactive)

Reactive – after impacts are observed Autonomous – not a conscious response Planned – the result of a deliberate policy

decision Private – initiated and implemented by

individuals, households or private companies; Public – initiated and implemented by

governments at all levelsSource: IPCC WGII TAR (2001)

ADAPTATION

Share the Loss

Bear the Loss

Modify the Events

Prevent the Effects

Research

Education, Behavioural

Avoid the Impacts

Structural, Technological

Legislative, Regulatory, Financial

Institutional, Administrative

Market-based

On-site Operations

Change Use

Change Location

Source: adapted from Burton et al., 1993; Burton, 1995b.

Adaptation and Mitigation

“Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to compliment climate change mitigation efforts “ (IPCC)

Engineers should promote and be involved in both;

Mitigation will/may slow but not stop climate change – we must still adapt;

We need time to adapt in an era of conflicting priorities and limited resources

It is a question of risk management

Aspects of Adaptation (1)

Develop approach and practices for Develop approach and practices for protecting and improving existing protecting and improving existing construction against effects of climate construction against effects of climate changechange

Develop approach and practices for Develop approach and practices for design, operation and maintenance of design, operation and maintenance of buildings (such as additional cooling buildings (such as additional cooling requirements in the summer and requirements in the summer and heating in the winter)heating in the winter)


Revise codes, such as flood plain Revise codes, such as flood plain mapping and climate data and return mapping and climate data and return frequencies for hazard-prone areas, frequencies for hazard-prone areas, adjusting to new realities, i.e. 100-year adjusting to new realities, i.e. 100-year floods become 500-year floods, higher floods become 500-year floods, higher snow and wind loadssnow and wind loads

Consider land use restriction on new Consider land use restriction on new construction, especially for floodplains, construction, especially for floodplains, coastal shoreline, landslide prone areascoastal shoreline, landslide prone areas


Three-step approach for protecting existing Three-step approach for protecting existing buildingsbuildings

Screening - to set priority (ranking) for Screening - to set priority (ranking) for detailed evaluation needs (based on building’s detailed evaluation needs (based on building’s location, type and use of the building, building location, type and use of the building, building age, A/M/E systems etc) age, A/M/E systems etc)

Evaluation - to determine a building’s Evaluation - to determine a building’s deficiency against effects of climate changedeficiency against effects of climate change

Retrofitting - improve a building’s Retrofitting - improve a building’s performance against effects of climate changeperformance against effects of climate change

Implications for Engineering Disciplines and Areas of Practice

(1)

Development of Standards Climatology / Meteorology Infrastructure Design Civil Engineering Geotechnical Engineering Municipal Engineering Municipal Administration Hydrotechnical Engineering

Geotechnical Engineering

Impacts of increased intensity, duration and accumulation of rainfall and flooding include weakening of foundations, diminishing slope stability, erosion and landslides

Impacts of drought can include cracking of foundations as soil moisture content diminishes


(2) Structural Engineering Materials Engineering Mining Engineering Mechanical Engineering Refrigeration Engineering Industrial Design Environmental Engineering Waste Management Engineering

Structural engineering

Design of structures needs to include measures to protect structures from impacts of weather changes and measures to reduce the effects that the life cycles of structures have on the climate

Measures include selection of construction materials and management of construction waste materials – can contribute to GHG mitigation as well as adaptation/performance

Structural engineering (2)

Structural engineers that do not design for climate change open themselves to critical underestimations of structural strength and stability

Designing for extreme weather – monitor and measure structures in areas with extreme weather or where it is changing significantly

Confirm and fine-tune climate design data for development and/or updating of codes and standards


(3) Chemical Engineering Natural Resource Management Agriculture Forest Management Building Engineering Lighting Engineering HVAC Technology Building Envelope Design


(4) Real Property Management Architecture Information Technology Port Authorities Shipping Regulation Shipping Regulation and Coast Guards Fishing Quota Regulation

Vulnerability of the Energy Sector

Drought caused 6 billion Kwh loss to Manitoba Hydro in 1987-88, 9 billion in 1988-89 - spent $ 18M to manage the situation

2001 and 2003 heat waves forced Ontario to import thousands of MW

Ontario/Quebec ice storm 1998 – loss of power, transmission lines and towers, billions of dollars of infrastructure and property damage

Energy System Adaptation Concerns

More warmer days Increased energy demand from air conditioners

More intense weather events More robust energy system designs Larger over capacity design margins

Increased cloud cover Solar power development compromised

Possible Shifting Wind Patterns Wind Power Development could be compromised

Source : Nodelman (2003)

Energy System AdaptationDesign Issues

Critical vs. Non-Critical Systems Do we have good definitions? Is there such a thing as 100% reliability? How long can system outages reasonably be tolerated?

Energy system shortages? Will we tolerate brown out during peak electricity periods?

How much over capacity is actually required?

Robust design What is an appropriate safety margin in design? How robust do energy systems have to be?

Source: Nodelman (2003)

Adaptation Example: Northern Infrastructure

Ekati Diamond Mine, NT

Thermosyphons

12 Principles of Green Engineering

1.Designers need to strive to ensure that all material and energy inputs and outputs are as inherently non-hazardous as possible.

2.It is better to prevent waste than to treat or clean up waste after it is formed.

3. Separation and purification operations should be designed to minimize energy consumption and materials use.

4. Products, processes, and systems should be designed to maximize mass, energy, space, and time efficiency.


(Cont’d)

5. Products, processes, and systems should be "output pulled" rather than "input pushed" through the use of energy and materials.

6. Embedded entropy and complexity must be viewed as an investment when making design choices on recycle, reuse, or beneficial disposition.

7. Targeted durability, not immortality, should be a design goal.

8. Design for unnecessary capacity or capability (e.g. "one size fits all") solutions should be considered a design flaw


(Cont’d)

9. Material diversity in multi-component products should be minimized to promote disassembly and value retention.

10. Design of products, processes, and systems must include integration and interconnectivity with available energy and materials flow.

11. Products, processes, and systems should be designed for performance in a commercial "afterlife".

12. Material and energy inputs should be renewable rather than depleting.

Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change

Key for engineers considering adaptation strategies is to define the risks and making choices based on them

Risk management process facilitates the selection of adaptation strategies by providing a framework for managing them

CAN/CSA Q850-97 – “Risk management Guideline for Decision-Makers – A National Standard for Canada” defines the terms and lays out steps of the risk management process in Canada

Risk Management Process

Initiation Preliminary Analysis Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Action and Monitoring Risk Communications

Words of Advice

• Do not base design criteria solely on historic climate

• Maximize flexibility recognizing uncertainty and need to accommodate extreme climatic events that occur more frequently and more severely than in the past

• Consider climate change as another factor in risk management strategy

• Define and monitor systems relative to critical thresholds

CCPE Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action Plan

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action Plan (CCAP)

Developed by the Environment and Sustainability Committee of the CEQB

Results of the Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Workshop - “Adapting to Climate Change - The Role of Canada’s Engineers” February 2003

Workshop was co-funded by the NRCan Climate Change Action Fund

CCAP Strategies

Education of engineering students and professional engineers

Raise awareness of the profession, industry, decision makers and the public on the need to consider impacts of and adaptation to climate change, however caused

Develop standards and codes of practice to incorporate into engineering design/practice

Formal and sustained links between scientists and engineers

CCAP Action Areas

Communication Education Continuing Professional Development

(CPD) Guidelines, Codes and Standards Networking of Scientists and Engineers Funding Arrangements

Engineering Infrastructure Expert Working Groups

Identify and recommend research, development and pilot/demonstration projects

Assist in review of existing national codes, standards, policies and practices for specific engineering infrastructures

Advice to federal government departments Need for volunteers with specific expertise

from the profession across the country

Concluding Remarks (1)

Engineers need to consider the impacts of climate change on future designs

In certain areas of practice develop appropriate adaptive measures

Engineers are already deeply involved in mitigation efforts – development and commercialization of technologies and best practices to reduce GHGs

Adaptation measures are less developed across the disciplines – role of the profession

Adaptation is the job of engineers


Will require adjustments to the principles of engineering design – prediction vs historical data

Further work is required on costs and benefits of adaptation as well as qualitative measures

Adaptation measures will require engineers to work closely with other stakeholders including planners, scientists, politicians and the public

The profession wants to document and communicate examples of engineering practice that consider and/or anticipate the impacts of climate change


More research is needed to estimate impacts

Climate change models need increased resolution

Climate change is happening regardless of cause – we need to mitigate change as best we can but most importantly we must adapt

Useful Reference

Impacts of Climate Change on Architectural and Engineering Practices – A Preliminary Investigation – Innovations and Solutions Directorate, PWGSC, Ottawa, Ontario September 2003 (ftp.pwgsc.gc.ca/rpstech/ClimateChange/pwgscCC.pdf)

Useful Websites (1) www.climatechange.gc.ca www.ec.gc.ca/climate (Environment Canada) www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca (Natural

Resources Canada) www.c-ciarn.ca (Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptation Research Network) www.csa.ca (Canadian Standards Association) www.infrastructurecanada.gc.ca www.ipcc.ch (Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change) www.unfcc.int (Kyoto Protocol)

Useful Websites (2)

www3.gov.ab.ca/env/climate www.climatechangecentral.com

The Canadian Council of Professional Engineers

Web site: www.ccpe.caTel.: 613-232-2474; Fax 613-230-5759

E-mail: [email protected]

apegga pd conference april 22-23, 2004 what engineers need to know about climate change david j....

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