1 national assessment the engineering vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate change:...
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National Assessment the Engineering Vulnerability of Public Infrastructure to Climate Change: Progress to Date and Next Steps
David Lapp, P.Eng.
Engineers Canada
Americana International Trade Show 2009
Montreal, QC • March 19, 2009
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What is Engineers Canada?
• 12 constituent members - the provincial and territorial regulatory associations/ordre
• Over 160,000 registered professional engineers in Canada
• Promotes high standards of engineering education, professional qualifications and ethical conduct
• Accredits all undergraduate engineering programs in Canada
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Infrastructure and Climate Change
• Because of changing climates, past climate may no longer be a good indicator of future climate
• Existing infrastructure is designed based on historical design values, typically with conservative safety factors
• Climatic design values based on historical data will be less and less helpful over time
• However, knowledge of the past is essential to understand risks of future climate changes
• Shifts in extremes will increase damage and destruction of infrastructure
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Design life-appropriate assessment
Structures Expected Lifecycle
Houses/Buildings
Retrofit/alterations 15-20 yrsDemolition 50-100 yrs
Storm/Sanitary Sewer
Base system 100 yrsMajor upgrade 50 yrs
Components 25 – 50 yrs
Dams/ Water Supply
Base system 50-100 yrsRefurbishment 20-30 yrs
Reconstruction 50 yrs
Roads & Bridges
Road surface 10 - 20 yrsBridges 50 - 100 yrs
Maintenance annuallyResurface concrete 20-25 yrs
Reconstruction 50-100 yrs
• Design life varies
• Component-based vulnerability assessment
• Safety / economics / technical
• There is adaptive capacity because of maintenance & rehabilitation
• Conversely, poor maintenance and lack of rehabilitation contributes to vulnerability
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Need for a Climate Change Infrastructure Vulnerability Study
Infrastructure needs to be designed, operated and maintained in a way that minimizes the risk of destruction, disruption or deterioration due to changing climatic conditions
The engineering profession needs to understand climate change and account for it in design and retrofitting of Canadian public infrastructure
Need to develop or revise policies, standards and tools to guide Professional Engineers in their day-to-day practice
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Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC)
Oversee a national engineering assessment of the vulnerability of public infrastructure to climate change in Canada
Facilitate the development of best engineering practices that adapt to climate change impacts
Utilize results to recommend reviews of infrastructure codes and standards
Partnership between Engineers Canada and Natural Resources Canada
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PIEVC Membership
NRCan Transport Canada Environment Canada Infrastructure Canada Public Works and
Government Services Canada
National Research Council Alberta Infrastructure and
Transportation NWT Asset Management
Division Government of
Newfoundland and Labrador
Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Canadian Standards Association
Federation of Canadian Municipalities
Municipality of Portage la Prairie
City of Montreal City of Delta, BC City of Calgary Ontario Public
Infrastructure Renewal Ouranos
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What is Public Infrastructure?
“Those facilities, networks and assets operated for the collective public benefit including the health, safety, cultural or economic well-being of Canadians, whether operated by government and/or non-government agencies”
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Engineering Vulnerability“The shortfall in the ability of public infrastructure to absorb the
negative effects, and benefit from the positive effects, of changes in the climate conditions used to design and operate infrastructure.”
Vulnerability is a function of:
Character, magnitude and rate of change in the climatic conditions to which infrastructure is predicted to be exposed;
Sensitivities of infrastructure to the changes, in terms of positive or negative consequences of changes in applicable climatic conditions; and
Built-in capacity of infrastructure to absorb any net negative consequences from the predicted changes in climatic conditions.
Vulnerability assessment will, therefore, require assessment of all three elements above.
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PIEVC Engineering Protocol
Five step evaluation process
Derived from standard risk management methodologies
Tailored to climate change vulnerability
Data quality and availability assessed throughout
Applied to vulnerability assessment of seven infrastructure case studies across Canada
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PIEVC Protocol Principles
The PIEVC Protocol is a step by step process to assess impacts of climate change on infrastructure
Goal: Assist infrastructure owners and
operators to effectively incorporate climate change adaptation into design, development and decision-making
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First National Engineering Vulnerability Assessment of Public Infrastructure
• Engineers Canada– develops standards of practice
– promotes continual development of competence
– promotes engineering in Canada
• PIEVC study 2007-08– national-scale assessment of Canada’s public infrastructure to
climate change impacts
– adaptive capacity
– potential vulnerabilities
– involved multiple levels of government and consultants
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7 Case Studies
ThermosyphonFoundations
Quesnell BridgeEdmonton
VancouverSewerage Area
Portage la Prairie Water Treatment Plant
PlacentiaWater Resources
OttawaBuildings
SudburyRoads & Accessories
• Water resources systems
• Storm & waste water systems
• Roads & bridges
• Buildings
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Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
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Portage la Prairie - Drinking Water Treatment Facility
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Floods, ice jams, ice build up Control dam structure
Floods, ice jams, ice build up, intense rain Intake well & pump
Drought Water source
Ice storms, hail, intense rain, tornadoes Power supply, communications, operations staff
Recommendations• Improve emergency preparedness for extreme events• Improve flood protection• Planned infrastructure improvements to account for climate change
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Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure
Town Hall in the Flood Plain
Main highway through Dunville
Breakwater
Backside Wall
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Tropical Storm Chantal, 2007
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Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure
Tropical Storm Chantal brought more than 200 mm of rain to the Placentia/Dunville area
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Placentia NL – Water Resources Infrastructure
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Storm water Culverts (100 yr design)
Increase in intense rains > increase in run off Highway and culverts system
Sea level rise & storm surge Breakwater; Backside wall
Sea level rise & increase in storm intensity > Increase in ground water table
Buildings in flood plain
Key Climate FactorsRegional model downscaling Local analysis
Sea level rise Rainfall intensity increase
Wind speed – extremes, gusts Rise in local groundwater table
Wind assisted storm surge New IDF curve for Placentia
Recommendations
• Establish land use plan to minimize storm water run off• Improve monitoring of flood protection structures• Account for rise in flood plain ground water in new design• Improve monitoring of erosion
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Sudbury – Roads & Associated Structures
• 330 Lakes within city boundaries• main industry is mining (nickel/copper ore)
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Sudbury – Roads & Associated Structures
Recommendations
• Review / revise design standards for drainage infrastructure • Review / revise maintenance procedures for roads / sidewalks• Improve materials / modify mix designs (asphalt, high temperature conditions)• Perform sensitivity analyses
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Increased frequency of high intensity rain
Washouts & damage of gravel road surfaces
Surcharging / flooding of drainage systems
Rising temperatures (extreme / sustained summer)
Softening of asphalt road surfaces
Ice accretion Functionality, operations, safety
Increased intensity / volume of rain > ground water table rise
Embankment failure; slope stabiilty
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Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge
Design high water level : 1915 flood
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Edmonton – Quesnell Bridge
Recommendations• Design drainage system for increased peak rain• Review monitoring / maintenance / operations procedures • Material selection/design (e.g. based on new temperatures ranges)• Perform sensitivity analyses• Review / update climatic data in bridge design code • Assess other bridges that would be sensitive to scour; slope instability; wind; softening foundations / settlement
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Flood + peak rain Drainage system overload - serviceability
Freeze-thaw, ice accretion Weather surface – increased deterioration
Drainage system performance
Snow volume / pattern Snow clearing increase/decrease
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Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area
Burrard Inlet
Strait of Georgia
Fraser River
North Shore Mountains
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Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area
Iona Island waste water treatment plant
• predominantly combined (storm/sanitary) sewers
• collection system
• mechanical system
• discharge system
• 25 – 100 yr design life
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Metro Vancouver – Vancouver Sewerage Area
Recommendations• Identify stand by power requirements • Emergency response plan• Determine if additional effort at sewer separation might be required• Further assess flooding potential at wastewater treatment plant
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Intense rain Combined sewer overflows
Annual rain volume Combined sewer overflows
Storm surge + sea level change + subsidence
Flooding of treatment plant
Storm surge + wind/wave action Effluent discharge; jetty structure
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Ottawa - Buildings
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Ottawa - Buildings
Recommendations
• Historical or culturally valuable buildings may need a longer time horizon • Identify stand by power requirements• Further assessment of buildings located on permafrost
VulnerabilitiesClimate Effect Infrastructure Component
Rainfall / humidity Building envelope
Freeze-thaw cycles Deterioration of building materials, especially roof membrane, concrete and masonry
Temperature / humidity extremes HVAC systems ability to maintain an acceptable indoor environment
Snow load / wind / combo changes Structural (e.g. roof)
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Water resources systems –Vulnerabilities (general)
• Drought– affect supply side (peakier rains, but drier dry seasons)
• Intense winds / tornadoes– low probability of occurrence, but severe consequences
– affect access to facility
• Flooding– dams / seawall in vicinity
• Ice storms– affect power supplies, essential to operation
• Rising sea level + storm surge + intense rain– affect coastal, tidal regions
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Storm water & waste water systems – Vulnerabilities (general)
• Sudden, intense rainfall – affect drainage system
– localized flooding
• Rainfall volume increase– added loading on collection, treatment, discharge systems
• Drier periods– drier soil may increase chance of pipe failures
• Ice regime, ice jams– affect drainage systems
• Higher temperatures– weakening of permafrost – instability of lagoons
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Roads & Bridges – Vulnerabilities (general)
• Temperature changes– can increase freeze-thaw patterns
• Higher winter temperatures– change/increase freeze-thaw cycles
– ice roads no longer serviceable
– less snow clearing
– frost heave, thaw weakening
• Higher summer temperatures– softening / rutting of asphalt road surfaces
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Roads & Bridges – Vulnerabilities (general)
• Increased rain / intense– flooding (incl. adjacent water bodies)
– increase in soil moisture – soil weakening
– slope instability
– landslides
– wash out of gravel roads
• Hydrological changes– early ice break + intense rain
– undermining of bridge foundations (scour, slope failure)
– high water level / flood level for bridge design
• Sea level rise– increase in scour at bridge piers
– bridge elevation
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Buildings – Vulnerabilities (general)
• Snow load changes– increased volume of snow
– wetter, heavier snow – roof loads
– changing patterns – change load distribution
• Temperature change– receding permafrost – weaken foundations
– drier soil conditions – weaken foundations
• Wind severity increase– physical damage
– accelerated physical weathering (driving rain, particles)
• Increase in freeze-thaw cycles• Moisture / humidity
– building envelopes
– cooling systems
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Summary of Vulnerability
Infrastructure Category Sensitivity to Climate Change
Water treatment facilities Sensitive - water supply issues; operations
Wastewater treatment facilities
Sensitive - changes in influent; operations
Roads & Bridges Generally robust
Site specific: Slope stability, foundation weakness
Buildings Generally adaptive
Site specific: foundation weakness
Coastal areas Sensitive to sea level rise
Permafrost regions Very sensitive to temp change
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PIEVC Update
• Progress report on National Engineering Assessment issued in June, 2008 (www.pievc.ca)
• Seven case study reports also available• Agreement with Natural Resources Canada for funding to
March 31, 2011 – Phase III • Presentations on the Engineering Protocol have been given
at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Discussions are underway for a pilot project through the World Bank
• Any interested parties may use the Protocol at no charge, but Engineers Canada retains the intellectual property rights of the Protocol
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PIEVC Phase III Scope of Work
• Increase number of case studies (regionally and functionally)
• Development of a national knowledge base• Application of the Protocol in developing countries• Add a financial module to the Protocol to assist with
“ballpark” costing• Focused information dissemination – training and outreach
to owners/operators, practitioners, students, educators• Workshop development and delivery
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PIEVC Case Study Process
• Owner signs license agreement with Engineers Canada to use Protocol
• Any financial or administrative details handled through a Memorandum of Agreement
• Operation of a project advisory committee through the PIEVC Secretariat
• Case studies take about 6 -8 months to complete • Cost is in the order of 60-80K depending on scope
of infrastructure being assessed
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Long Term Benefits of Engineering Vulnerability Assessment
• Identify nature and severity of risks to infrastructure components• Optimize more detailed engineering analysis• Quick identification of most obvious vulnerabilities• Structured, documented approach ensures consistency and
accountability• Adjustments to design, operations and maintenance aspects of
infrastructure• Can be applied to new designs, retrofitting, rehabilitation and
operations and maintenance reviews• Will ultimately lead to reviews and, as necessary, adjustments of
codes, standards and engineering practices• Provides a useful tool in the hands of a professional team
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The Way Forward
Adaptation of infrastructure is not necessarily a complex problem but the magnitude is huge
Incorporate adaptation in plans to address the infrastructure deficit
Tie adaptation planning to infrastructure life cycles
Develop the tools and knowledgeable people to use them
Bring impacts of changing climate into the front line thinking of engineering projects
