TitleSub-title

Animal protein

production &

consumptiongovernance

Madelon Meijer27 Oktober 09

trends

Per capita meat consumption has increased from 30 kg in 1980 to 42.2 kg in 2008.

Consumption

is growing rapidly

In the US per capita consumption of meat is 123kg whilst in India it is 5kg.Many African countries consume between 5 and 10kg of meat per annum.

Consumption is unequal

Milk, beef, pork and chicken are now 4 of the 5 most produced commodities in the world (by value). Meat production is expected to double by 2050.

The ‘livestock revolution’

Production systems are becoming more intensive. More than 50% of pork and 66% of poultry and eggs are now produced in industrial systems.

Production is intensifying

The share of pork and poultry in total livestock production has increased.These sectors contributed 77% of growth in livestock production between1980 and 2002.

Pigs and

poultry

Aquaculture now accounts for 47% of global fish food supply. Between 2000 and 2006 it was the fastest growing agrifood sector.

Aquaculture is growing

Global per capita supply of fish has grown from 9.9kg in 1960 to 16.7kg in 2006. In some developing countries fish supplies 75% of people’s protein intake.

Fish consumption

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Livestock and total dietary protein supply in 1980 and 2002

1980 2002 1980 2002

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.4 9.3 53.9 55.1

Near East 18.2 18.1 76.3 80.5

Latin America and the Caribbean 27.5 34.1 69.8 77

Asia developing 7 16.2 53.4 68.9

Industrialised countries 50.8 56.1 95.8 106.4

World 20 24.3 66.9 75.3

Total protein supplyTotal protein supply from livestock (g/per person)

Food prices, food security & animal feed

There is growing competition between food, animal feed and biofuels - butthe relationship is complex. Demand for feed is predicted to increase to 1billion tonnes by 2030 from a 1997/9 baseline.

Food, fuel, feed

competition

We can argue that the loss of calories from using cereals as feed could feedmore than 3.5 billion people in a year (UNEP, 2009b). However, thereduction of use of cereals as animal feed does not necessarily guaranteethese will be available for human consumption – this is dependent on pricesignals to incentivise production of these cereals for human consumptionand sufficient purchasing power of the poor.

Feed versus

food debate

Research to model the impact of reducing meat consumption in thedeveloped world reveal that it has little impact on child malnutrition levels inthe developing world (Rosengrant et al, 1999).

Animal feed

and food

security

No organisations have as yet attempted to model the impact of animal feedon food price rises, though this has been done for biofuels. Further researchis needed that understand the complexities of supply and demand dynamics.

More

research

needed

Traditional animal feeds (high energy cereals) are an inefficient means offeeding animals – incurring a significant energy loss in the process. Moreefficient feeds exist , for example forages and recycling waste human food.

Animal feed:

energy loss

Most research currently focuses on the role of biofuels in driving food pricerises between 2003 and 2008. Some studies estimate that 60-70% of theincreases in maize prices is due to biofuels (Lipsky, 2008, Collins, 2009).

Biofuels

Climate and land-use change

70% of all agricultural land (or 30% of the surface area of the planet) isused by the livestock sector. Livestock is therefore an important contributorto land-use change.

Land-use change

Livestock is thought to contribute between 12% and 18% of Greenhouse Gas Emissions – playing a significant role in driving climate change. However, its measurement is complex.

Climate

change

80% of deforestation in the Amazon can be attributed to cattle ranching. This has significant repercussions for biodiversity and carbon sequestration.

Deforestation

Developing countries may lose about 280 million tonnes of potential cereal production as a result of climate change. In more than 40 countries in the developing world, mean cereal losses of 15% are expected by 2080.

Climate

change’s

impact

Growing demand for animal feed and livestock production is playing a role in driving a process of land grabbing.

Land grabs

Biodiversity

2.5 billion people depend directly on wild and traditionally cultivated plant species to meet their daily needs (Dronamraju, 2008).

Biodiversity and

livelihoods

Biodiversity is particularly important for the livelihoods of poor people – acase in Zimbabwe reveals that the poorest receive 40% of their total incomefrom environmental products – it is only 29% for the richest.

Biodiversity and the poor

306 of 835 terrestrial eco-regions are at threat from livestock production. 23of 35 global hotspots of biodiversity are affected by livestock (Steinfield et al,2006). Livestock keeping is responsible for around 30% of the biodiversityloss of land (Stehfest et al, 2008).

Livestock production

More than one third of the global pig supply is supplied by a very fewcommercial breeds, 85% of chicken by a limited number of breeds and 90%of cattle in industrialised countries from six tightly defined breeds(Worldwatch Institute, 2007).

Lacking agrodiversity

The economic impact of biodiversity loss has been valued at £40billion a year (Sukhdev, 2008).

Economic cost

Agrodiversity is vital for the livelihoods and food security of the poor: diverseanimal breeds are better suited to local climate conditions, require fewer,expensive inputs, are more resistance to local disease and are important foradaption. Climate change will make diversity increasingly important.

Agrodiversity and

livelihoods

water

Livestock production is a significant user of water and contributes to water scarcity predominantly through the use of irrigated land to produce animal feed.

Water use by

livestock

Livestock makes a significant contribution to water pollution througheutrophication from animal waste, antibiotics, hormones, chemicals fromtanneries, fertilisers, pesticides used from feed crops and soil sediments.

Water

pollution

Large-scale livestock production is an intensive user of water. In extensive systems livestock are able to obtain 25% of their water requirements from animal feed. This decreases to 10% in intensive systems. Processing and servicing in the livestock industry is also water intensive.

Water use QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

employment

Large-scale animal protein production leads to the marginalisation of small-scale farmers through blocked mobility, reduced market access throughincreased barriers to entry.

Employment

640 million smallholders and 190 million pastoralists are raising livestock andthese people make up 70% of the world’s poor. Livestock make a vitalcontribution to people’s livelihoods and food security.

Small-scale

livestock

production

Relocating smallholders as a labour force in industrial agriculture onlyabsorbs a small amount of people, the number of people absorbed intoalternative employment is likely to be smaller than the number displaced.

Employment

vs market

access

45 million people are estimated to be employed directly and indirectly inaquaculture in 2006 – many of these are small-scale fishers and dominate inAsia.

Aquaculture

In countries where large-scale production does not dominate, small-scalelivestock production makes a vital contribution to agricultural GDP: 90% inMongolia, 84% in Niger and 40% in Ethiopia.

Livestock and GDP

12

production

80% arable land now used for livestock, 30% agriculture land for feed

FAO: 70% food production rise needed to feed world

20% by land expansion?

Remainder by increased efficiency?

Efficiency vs externalisation of cost?

distribution

Production increase necessary but insufficient:

Today sufficient food produced to feed all.

Yet, over 1 billion hungry peoplee.g. despite livestock revolution hundreds of millions poor have

no animal protein access, would benefit their health

For the poor the issue is one of distribution rather than production.

Invest in agriculture to support the poors’ livelihoods

• 3 of 4 poor people live in rural area’s.

• Depend on ag-related income generation.

• Production increase does as rule not benefit them:

e.g. 1 billion of the poor producing livestock.

• Market access an approach, limited success.

Food feed fuel

Global competition for

• Staples (for feed & fuel): food price crises 2008

• access to land, water, forests, grassland: land grabbing

poors’ demand loses out

Rural poor depend on access to natural resources: 1,5 billion (UNEP 2009), others: 2,5 billion. As resources price increases, poor lose access, move to urban or more marginal area’s. Extremely vulnerable to resource degradation: erosion, deforestation, drought, climate change.

Weak national & international governance: zoning, social policies, land-water management, anti trust, enforcement, human rights etc..

basic goals AP

• Europe, US (OECD) drastic reductionconsumption

• Production sustainable and respecting HR

Duty to target poverty & food insecurity

• Obligation of governments and companies to enforce Classic Human Rights to Food and Livelihood.

• Sustainable consumption-production require internalisation of social cost

• Focus on indirect impacts necessary: food prices, climate change, access to land, water & other natural resources.

19

Oxfam Novib roles

• Agendasetting research

e.g. AP social impacts global, food prices, ag-investment, small farmers, EU land, carbon, biodiversity, poverty foodprints,

• Global CSO network (support, joint lobby or campaign)

e.g. CSO conference meat/dairy 2009 to increase south CSO influence

• Regulatory lobbies north, south and internationally.

• consumer campaigns.

• multistakeholder processess with NGOs, companies, governments

1. Integration of global lessons learned on biofuels, palmoil, soy, aquaculture, land management.

2. Strengthen rights approach to food and livelihood

.

• Land grabbing research and lobby 2010: economic drives, banks