animal health crisis management ai control sino eu forum shanghai 2010
DESCRIPTION
At the invitation of DG SANCO, EFSA participated in the context of the Shanghai Expo 2010 in China to the Sino-European Food Safety Cooperation Forum, to the Seminar on Research for Healthy life and to the Securing Food Safety for a Healthy Life Day from 4 to 11 June. Former Chief Veterinary Officer of FAO, Mr. Joseph Domenech delivered a lecture on Animal Health Crisis Management in with respect to Avian Influenza Control in Asia. The event was organised as part of the Better Training for Safer Food programme, which aims to train staff in Member States and Third Countries in official controls on food. The forum provided presentations and lectures by staff of the European Commission, the European Food Safety Authority and Member States. Lectures were also given by representatives of the Chinese General Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ), the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Agriculture.TRANSCRIPT
Sino-European Food Safety Cooperation Forum
Shanghai, 07-11 June 2010
Animal Health Crisis ManagementAvian Influenza Control
Mr. Joseph Domenech
An unprecedented crisisA complex epidemiologySocio economic impactsA major human risk
Importance of the crisis Destruction of assets : Over 300 million poultry have died Market shocks: Fears of consumers drive down demand
Import bans Poultry prices: increased or decreased Global trade: winners and losers Substitution effects with alternative proteins Internationally 2004-05, 8% decline in global poultry trade.
Shift in export of major players(FAO projections March 2006)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2003 2004 2005 2006r
Millio
n t
on
nes
Europe
Asia
South America
North America
Livelihood impacts of disease and control programmes
• Killing birds: compensation needed• Restriction of movement and sales: smallholders
recover slowly and lose market share • Loss of income for food, education of children and
other household expenses...• Changes to the structure of poultry market chains • Gender issue: poultry often owned and managed by
women
A(H1N1) A(H2N2) A(H3N2)
1918: “Spanish Flu” 1957: “Asian Flu” 1968: “Hong Kong Flu”
20-40 million deaths 1-4 million deaths 1-4 million deaths
Credit: US National Museum of Health and Medicine
Human health dimensionThe risk of a human pandemic
Biodiversity issue Possible losses of valuable
local breeds due to
- Control methods (culling) - Restructuring of the poultry production sector More big commercial farms Marginalization of small/village backyard holders - Genetic resistance issue
RESERVOIRS
DEAD-END hosts
SPILLOVER
GENE POOL??
Epidemiology of H5N1 A complex cycle
Resistance of HPAI virus in the environment & indirect
transmission
Specific role of duck farming systems in
Asia
Sub-clinical infection in ducks
Identification of risk factors
Weak economies and animal health services Poultry production systems Movements Live bird markets Cultural practices Wild birds
ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF POULTRY (SOURCE: FAO)
Production systems
124
680
162
215
337
72123
121108
53
49
85
97
66
59
246
281
726
221
134
8782
177
50
58
190
195
115
84
150
101
Trade
• Local, regional, international trade – legal– Illegal
• Captive wild birds
Crested Hawk-Eagles confiscated at Brussels International Airport in the hand luggage of a Thai passenger...
Live bird markets: mixing species poorly regulated
Movements of animals
Cultural practices
Wild bird migrations
Northern Pintail ringing recoveries
What is the role of wild birds What is the role of wild birds Victim or the problem ?Sentinel or spreader ?Reservoir of virus?
Lake Quinghai China
15 April 2005– Bar headed goose– Great Cormoran– Goéland ichthyaète– Brown headed gull– Tadorne casarca
>519 morts
(Marc Artois)
August 2005 Ducks, Geese
and Swans 100 deaths
Husvel/Bulgan. Mongolia
Original focus
An alarming spread westwardsAn alarming spread westwards
New areas affectedNew areas affected
Emergence
Due to complex and numerous factors
- Globalisation of exchanges- Climate changes- Demography, urbanisation - Intensification of the production - Evolution of ecosystems…
Livestock Production systems
Human behaviour
Virus eco-epidemiology
Pandemic threat
Pandemic threat Goose/GD/96
(China, Guandong, 1996)
Weak Veterinary Services
Wild birds: reservoir
or victim?
EMERGENCE OF HPAI IN ASIA
Virus genetic and antigenic evolution
– Gs/GD/1/96 virus has evolved during the last 10 years resulting in 10 HA clades in this lineage.
– Clade 2 virus has become the dominant one since 2005 in Southeast Asia as well as in the world
– Only clade 2.2 is found outside of Southeast Asia while 2.2 is not common in this region.
– It is also changing antigenically while antigenicity of classic H5N1 viruses were quite stable
With few exceptions like in China and Indonesia, with an impact on vaccine efficacy
Where is this evolution going and what will its impact be?
ck/Nongkhai/NIAH400802/07 ck/TH/NP172/06 Guangzhou/1/06 JapaneseWhiteEye/HK/1038/06 Anhui/1/05 dk/Laos/3295/06 ck/Malaysia/935/06 commonmagpie/HK/645/06 Zhejiang/16/06 JapaneseWhiteEye/HongKong/73720/07 WhiteBackedMunia/HongKong/82820/07 Guangxi/1/05 dk/Guiyang/3009/05 dk/Guiyang/3242/05 gs/Guiyang/3422/05 ck/Guiyang3/055/05 gs/Yunnan/4494/05 gs/Guangxi/3017/05 gs/Guangxi/345/05 gs/Guangxi/3316/05 dk/Hunan/127/05 dk/Hunan/149/05 dk/Hunan/152/05 dk/Hunan/139/05 Egypt/0636NAMRU320/07 Egret/Egypt/1162NAMRU3/06 dk/Egypt/22533/06 Egypt/14724NAMRU320/06 turkey/Turkey1//05 WhooperSwan/Mongolia/244/05 Nigeria/6e20/07 ck/Nigeria/641/06 Turkey/15/06 Iraq/207NAMRU3/06 Azerbaijan/001161/06 ck/Krasnodar/01/06 swan/Iran/754/06 ck/Liaoning/23/05 Barhdgs/Qinghai12/05 Barhdgs/Qinghai1A/05 ck/Kyoto/3/04 crow/Kyoto/53/04 ck/Yamaguchi/7/04 ck/Korea/ES/03 dk/Guangxi/13/04 ck/YN/115/04 ck/YN/374/04 Indonesia/CDC1046/07 Indonesia/CDC103220/07 Indonesia/CDC938/06 Indonesia/CDC887/06 Indonesia/CDC1047/07 Indonesia/283H/06 Indonesia/326N/06 Indonesia/CDC742/06 Indonesia/370E/06 Indonesia/5/05 Indonesia/CDC940/06 Indonesia/546bH/06 Indonesia/596/06 Indonesia/599/06 Indonesia/625/06 dk/Indonesia/MS/04 ck/Indonesia/4/04 ck/Indonesia/11/03 ck/Indonesia/7/03 VN/JP14/05 ck/Cambodia/013LC1b/05 VN/1194/04 VN/1203/04 VN/HN3/0408/05 TH/16/04 TH/676/05 VN/JPHN30321/05 HK/213/03 ck/Henan/16/04 ck/Henan/01/04 ck/Henan/13/04 ck/Henan/12/04 dk/Guangxi/50/01 ck/HK/YU777/02 ck/HK/YU22/02 migdk/Jiangxi1653/05 dk/Guangxi/2775/05 ck/Hunan/41/04 blbird/Hunan1/04 treesparrow/Henan/4/04 dk/Hubei/wg/02 sw/Anhui/ca/04 dk/Guangxi/1378/04 dk/Guangxi/1681/04 dk/Guangxi/1311/04 dk/Guangxi/2396/04 ck/Hunan/2292/06 ck/Shanxi/2/06 ck/Myanmar/06010011B/06 dk/Guiyang/504/06 ck/Guiyang237/06 gs/Guiyang/337/06 gs/Guiyang/1325/06 ck/Guiyang441/06 ck/Guiyang1218/06 ck/Guiyang846/06 ck/HK/8911/01 ck/HK/SF219/01 ck/HK/8791/01
gs/Guangdong/1/960.005
2.3.42.3.32.3.22.3.1
2.22.42.5
2.1.32.1.22.1.1189657
430
Genetic evolution of Asian-lineage HPAI H5N1 virus (HA gene)
Parent virus Gs/GD/1/96 has evolved during 1996-2008 resulting in 10 different clades.
Shift of Dominant HA clade of H5N1 viruses in Southeast Asia during 1996-2007
Year
HA cladesTotal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Out 96-99 29 29 2000 17 3 1 21 2001 18 43 1 1 2 65 2002 17 17 3 7 3 1 7 2 8 65 2003 4 25 33 1 1 5 1 1 7 8 86 2004 4 171 49 16 3 3 14 5 265 2005 3 112 170 1 7 1 9 1 304 2006 5 5 122 5 1 1 139 2007 12 94 22 Total 97 342 471 47 14 26 4 12 9 34 24 1080
ExistMajor clade of the year
Dominant HA clade has shifted from 0 to 1 in 2002-03 Dominant HA clade has shifted from 1 to 2 in 2003-05 HA clade 2 is now dominant = why?
Thailand
YearHA clades
0 1 2 3 4 5
96-99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
China
YearHA clades
0 1 2 3 4 5
96-99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
South Vietnam
YearHA clades
0 1 2 3 4 596-99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
North Vietnam
YearHA clades
0 1 2 3 4 596-99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NORTHVIETNAM
SOUTHVIETNAM
THAI
CHINA
Different pattern between North and South Vietnam North is similar with South China that indicates multiple introduction of virus since 2001 including new clade 7 South has similar pattern with Thailand till 2007.
Possible H5N1 Virus Circulation Pattern in Vietnam
HA clades of HPAI H5N1 in the World
2.2
2.22.
2
2.2
2.2
1 2.3
2.1
1 2.3
2.1
2.2
2.32.42.5
?
2.32.42.5
Some Epidemiologic DifferencesBetween Africa and Asia
• Poultry and human densities• Wetland free ranging duck production
systems absent• Survival of the virus in the environment:
temperature... • Less contacts between wild birds and domestic poultry
Official declarations
OIE
and WHO
FAO analysis
HPAI situation
HPAI in humans 2003 to 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
New ly infected countries
Previously infectedcountries
HPAI in poultryInfected countries 2003 to 2010
Outbreaks of HPAI in domestic poultry and Wild birds, April 2009-April 2010
• Improvement of the situation compared with 2006
More transparency, more awareness and preparedness Less outbreaks A set of tools (culling, biosecurity, vaccination, etc) available and deployed to control the disease
• Epidemiology and socio economic impacts are better known
• But the virus is still present in around 10 countries
• Recurrent introduction or reintroduction of the virus in countries or regions
0
50
100
150
200
250
Tet periodFeb 9-11, 2004
Tet periodFeb 11-13, 2005
2nd wave: 2004/52 mil. Poultry culled
Tet periodFeb 16-21, 2007
3rd wave: late 20054 mil. Poultry culled
4th wave: 2006/ 200799,040 Poultry culled
5th wave: mid 2007169,188 Poultry culled
Duck hatching ban lifted28 Feb 07
Harvest period
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sporadic outbreaks
1st wave: 2003/445 mil. Poultry culled
No
. o
utb
reak
s
Data source: DAH and WHO
2003: 3 human cases (3 fatal)2004: 29 human cases (20 fatal)2005: 61 human cases (19 fatal)2006: No human case reported2007: 8 human cases (5 fatal)2008: 6 human cases (5 fatal)2009: 5 human cases (5 fatal)2010: 5 human cases (2 fatal)
Temporal Pattern of HPAI outbreaks in VietnamJan 2004 – Mar 2010
2009 2010
Tet periodJan 26-31, 2009 Tet period
Feb 15-18, 2010
Tet periodFeb 6-11, 2008
China
Confirmed HPAI 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Poultry outbreaks 0 50 31 10 4 8 2
Human cases (1) 0 8 13 5 4 7
China
IndonesiaHPAI in humans and poultry 2004-2009
Indonesia Outbreaks in 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Month
Nu
mb
er
of
HP
AI o
utb
rea
ks
/ca
se
s Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Nepal
Reported outbreaks of HPAI in South Asia 2009-10
HPAI outbreaks In Bangladesh
BangladeshOccurrence of HPAI since March 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
n
2008 2009 10
Nu
mb
er o
f o
utb
reak
s
HPAI outbreaks in India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Ja
n
2008 2009 10
Nu
mb
er o
f o
utb
reak
s
HPAI outbreaks
in Egypt
Tools and strategies to control HPAI exist
– Surveillance and Disease intelligence – Stamping out– Biosecurity– Movement control– Vaccination
Surveillance
Active and passive surveillanceRandomized versus intelligence Targeted surveillance (risk based)Specific case of wild birdsSpecial tools such as the SMS Gateway system
Random versus. Intelligence• Reduces bias• Requires careful
planning• Long time frame• Clustering
• Key informants• Open-ended• Discovery• Identify risk areas• Rapid
Community-Based Disease Surveillance
Targeted surveillance and monitoring of virus circulation based on risk analysis
Disease intelligence
Particularly to address the emergence or re emergence of new pathogens with regard to global changes, hot spots identification
Specific concepts, approaches, methods and tools to be used
Disease Intelligence and Tracking60% of the 1400 infectious agents of humans have an animal origin; and 75% of new infectious diseases have originatedfrom animal reservoirs
Stopping animal diseases ‘at source’ by: • Identifying determinants and drivers of disease emergence and spread• Modelling, mapping and forecasting disease trends and outbreaks• Generating information and data for early warning and response• Tracking genetic evolution of pathogens to improve diagnostics and
vaccines
GoogleGoogleTMTM
Control of movements
Enforcement may be very difficult
Culling Compensation
Enforcement can be very difficult Needs compensationManagement of compensation funds can be difficult: various systems exist
Vaccination An important tool
– Good quality: OIE Standards- Cost (0.5 to 0.8 USD) and share of cost– Post-vaccination monitoring– DIVA approach– Control of virus circulation– Exit strategy
FAO-OIE-WB Report on
Biosecurity:
Issues and options
August 2008
Develop, test and promote biosecurity measures that are:
Developed in a participatory manner
Practical and affordable
Proportionate to risk
Tailored to situationand production system
Biosecurity
Biosecurity
Production practices/socio-cultural aspects
Transport/Marketing Processing
International Cooperation
FAO - OIE GF TADS
Global Framework for the Progressive Control of Transboundary Animal Diseases
International Cooperation
FAO - OIE GF TADS
Global Framework for the Progressive Control of Transboundary Animal Diseases
Crisis Management Center Global Early
Warning System
Available Tools at the Global Level
Needs and Gaps for Avian and Human
Influenza in AfricaALive provisional Proposal
GLEWS Global Early Warning SystemA major component of GF TADs Initiative
Regional Networks:
- Epidemiology- Diagnostic and research laboratories- Socio economics- Communication
FAO OIE Regional Animal Health Centers
Intersectoral Cooperation
- Human and animal health systems To be in strong interraction and collaboration No fusion. Specific mandates, partners and stakeholders, methods and tools - Other sectors: wildlife, environment, trade, turism, police, medias, land management…
Global results
- Less contaminated countries
- More sensibilisation and commitment
- Improved transparency
- More awareness and preparedness
- Strenghthened Veterinary Services
- Better knowledge of the disease
epidemiology and of root causes of emergence
and spread
Is eradication possible?
- Eradication of all Influenza A viruses is not an option given the highly diverse gene pool of viruses circulating in the wild waterbird reservoir, in livestock and humans- In most situations H5N1 HPAI freedom remains a viable objective- More difficult is the control of H5N1 HPAI in environments where
both traditional domestic waterfowl production, including rice-duck agriculture, and commercial chicken plants coincide in the farming landscape
- Endemic situations require a cautious balancing of all tools and methods available to contain H5N1 virus spread and persistence
Lessons learnt
Need to be ready to respond to emergencies
Stop the outbreaks before they spread and become a crisis
Emergency short term improved capabilities
Credo
Surveillance Early Warning Early detection Early response
Need to better address the Socio Economic issues
• Economic analysis inputs to disease epidemiology to support risk assessments
• Socio economic impacts of HPAI• Costs and cost-effectiveness of prevention
and control measures• Long Term Restructuring and Socio
economic impacts on small holders,• Mitigation options• Impacts on biodiversity
Need to develop more focus on disease drivers and not only on disease events
Public-Private partnership At all levels
Surveillance Prevention Control
Small holders-villagers Participatory approaches
Capacity building Training
Communication and Information
Information and Awareness
• Information and dialogue with commercial farmers
• Need for information and compliance of the population – information on vaccination– information on logistics
• Cooperation of farmers and village heads is crucial for an effective implementation of control programmes
Information and Awareness
Provision of informationthrough multi-track Campaigns to ensureInformed decision makingprocesses and producers’ participation
Remaining gaps
• Virology• Epidemiology• Trade routes • Wildfife• Socio economics • Vaccines
… Need for Research
Remaining gaps (cont.)… Need for research
Transmission Animals-Humans
- Government and private sector
commitment- Private-public partnership- Participatory approaches - Restructuring of the poultry sector with mitigation of possible adverse impacts
Responding to challenges
Based on
- Strong Veterinary Services- Biosecurity, Movement Control- Communication- Laws and Regulations- Public Private Partnership
Roots of Disease Emergence
Long term global approaches
One World One Health Strategy
More investment
More Political Commitment to implement and enforce the
Prevention and Control Measures
Thank you for your attention