animal agriculture and climate...
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Animal Agriculture and Climate Change
Henning Steinfeld, FAO 13 May 2014
Presentation to the National Academy of Sciences: Considerations for the Future of Animal Science Research
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Animal Agriculture and Climate Change
Key Points • Livestock are a significant emitter of climate
gases; overriding role of ruminants (beef) • People and - livestock are being hit hard by
climate change (poverty, disease, unrest) • Large potential for mitigation and socio-economic
benefits • Adaptation is a necessity and an opportunity • Sustainable intensification and landscape
management • Livestock products in healthy diets
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Animal Agriculture and Climate Change
Emissions Livestock are a significant emitter of climate gases; overriding role of ruminants (beef) • Total emissions 7.1 GT CO2 eq or 14 percent of
total anthropogenic emissions (life cycle) • Ruminants, enteric fermentation, methane • Feed-related emissions for pigs and poultry • Land use change: beef and soy • Emission intensity: large variability • Other purposes of keeping livestock (subsistence,
traction, fertilizer, asset, cultural)
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Sources of climate emissions from livestock
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Is there an emission gap? Range of GHG emission intensities for livestock commodities
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Animal Agriculture and Climate Change
Climate Change Impacts People and livestock are being hit hard by climate change - poverty, disease, unrest • Geography of livestock
– Large crop-livestock interaction – Marginal and remote areas (widespread poverty) – Near Consumption Centers (depending on crops)
• Droughts, heat waves, floods: social Impact and humanitarian crises
• Changing disease ecologies – emerging and re-emerging health threats – human health
• Political instability and conflicts
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Estimated distribution of livestock production systems
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Risk areas for the end of 2013 (Rift Valley fever)
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Mitigation
Large potential for mitigation and socio-economic benefits • Emission intensity and productivity move in
parallel (socio-economic benefits) • Close the productivity gap by tweaking existing
practices - transfer and adoption of proven technologies (30% mitigation)
• Feeding, genetics, animal health, waste management
• On the horizon: rumen manipulation, feed additives, genetic selection
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Relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions and milk output per cow
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kg
CO
2-e
q. p
er
kg
FP
CM
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How to bridge the emissions gap
Mitigation effect: if average producers in a given region, farming system and agro-ecological zone would apply the production practices of the 10 to 25% of producers having lowest emission intensity.
Estimating mitigation potential through analysis of emissions gap
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Case studies in selected regions: mitigation packages
Mixed dairy in south Asia
• Feed quality
• Animal health & husbandry
Commercial pigs in E &SE Asia
• Manure management
• Energy efficiency
• Feed quality
• Animal health & husbandry
Specialized beef in S. America
• Grazing management
• Animal health
Small ruminants in W. Africa
• Feed quality
• Animal health & husbandry
• Grazing management
Mixed dairy OECD
• Fat supplementation
• Anaerobic digestion
• Energy efficiency
Assumptions based on: • understanding of sector contribution to emissions and key drivers of emissions • selection of technical feasible options in different production systems and regions • economic feasibility and implications on food security
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Case studies: mitigation potential
Mixed dairy -199 Mt CO2
Commercial pigs -152 to -169 Mt CO2
Specialized beef -753 to -874 Mt CO2
Small ruminants -17 Mt to -21 Mt CO2
Mixed dairy OECD -54 to -66 Mt CO2
18-29%
28-35% 38% 27-41%
14-17%
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Adaptation
Adaptation is a necessity and an opportunity
• Large exposure of livestock to climate change – extensive systems will be most affected - outmigration
• Some livestock are “natural” adapters; take advantage of changing bio-mass production
• Intensive systems adapt through switching among feeds, and growth/contraction
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Sustainable intensification
Intensive systems: Focus on efficiency/feed conversion • of land and biomass – modern practices based on
“opportunistic” feed use • Nitrogen – optimal use of fertilizer, precision feeding,
waste management • emission intensity • but consider human health, animal welfare Through • Life cycle analysis • Economics of mitigation
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Integrated grassland management
Extensive Systems
• Focus on multitude of services from grasslands: social and environmental benefits
• Land – grazing management, pasture improvement, silvo-pastoral systems
Through:
• Payments for environmental services (incl. soil carbon)
• Institutional change and land use arrangements/regulations
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Mitigation/adaptation through consumption
• Reduction of consumption where unhealthy
• Shift to low-emission products (eggs, poultry meat, dairy, farmed fish)
Through
• Awareness building
• Marketing and supply chain management
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(per unit of edible protein from livestock)
Geographic Distribution of Emission Intensity
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Animal Agriculture and Climate Change
Key Points • Livestock are a significant emitter of climate
gases; overriding role of ruminants (beef) • People and - livestock are being hit hard by
climate change (poverty, disease, unrest) • Large potential for mitigation and socio-economic
benefits • Adaptation is a necessity and an opportunity • Sustainable intensification and landscape
management • Livestock products in healthy diets