andris bankovskis, independent energy consultant...• electricity generated from solar pv •...
TRANSCRIPT
Key Elements of (almost) Every Energy Policy
Security of Supply
Affordability
Sustainability
Student: “Dr Einstein, you have made a mistake. These are the same questions as last year’s physics exam!”
Dr Einstein: “Yes, but this year’s answers are different”
The Traditional Responses
Change in Progress
• Internet of Things and Internet of Energy• Sensors, actuators and algorithms• Huge information processing power and connectivity• Plummeting costs
• Renewable generation and storage technologies• Much smaller units that can evolve quickly and be deployed and
low risk of regret• Vast increase in sensor, actuator and algorithm technology and
deployment• Plummeting costs
• Convergence of previously separate energy sectors of electricity, heat and road transport
• Increased competition through substitution of energy sources
Example: “Active Buildings” being Developed in the UK
A New Class of Energy Asset
• Electricity generated from solar PV
• Electricity stored in batteries
• Heat captured from sun and air using external wall cover as a heat collector augmented by heat pumps
• Heat collected in the summer can be stored for use in the winter
• All heating and hot water supplied by electricity with no need for any gas supply
• Electricity to accommodate the addition of electric vehicles
• Information infrastructure to facilitate energy aggregation from many buildings into highly flexible “virtual power stations” for energy trading
• Smart home technology, such as health care facilities can be connected
Active Buildings Build-Rate Scenarios
Comparative Performance Assumptions
Simple Electricity Management
3.50
8.40
2.10
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Stor
age
allo
cate
d to
eac
h Ac
tive
Build
ing (
kWh)
Top end battery reserved forfrequency response
Energy reserved to providegenerating capacity
Bottom end battery reserved forfrequency response
Meeting Demand With and Without Active Buildings on a Winter’s Day
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,00000
:30
01:3
002
:30
03:3
004
:30
05:3
006
:30
07:3
008
:30
09:3
010
:30
11:3
012
:30
13:3
014
:30
15:3
016
:30
17:3
018
:30
19:3
020
:30
21:3
022
:30
23:3
0
Batte
ry C
harg
e St
atus
in
Build
ings
as P
ower
Stat
ions
(MW
h)
Half
Hour
ly P
ower
(MW
)
Storage Charge Status in Active Buildings
Total Demand without Active Buildings
Net Demand with Active Buildings Including PV and Storage
Peak Capacity available at distribution level
Impact on Policy Objectives
Interseasonal Heat Storage
Active Buildings Heating
Active Buildings Lights
Active Buildings Hot Water
Active Buildings Small Power
Active Buildings Station Fans
GB Domestic Demand per Dwelling
Contribution of PV and Heat Storage to Maintain Current Demand Shape
Active Buildings PV Generation Interseasonal Heat Contribution
Interseasonal Heat Storage Replaces Gas, No Electricity Network Expansion
Active Buildings Demand net of PV and Stored Heat
GB Domestic Demand per Dwelling
Active Buildings Total Demand
From Buildings as Power Stations to Smart, Resilient Cities
• Active Buildings form a key building block at a cellular level
• On electricity and communications meshed networks
• Able to transfer energy control to supply manager of choice
• Integration of utility and public services management
• Plug and play integration of technology in linked sectors, such as electric vehicles
Prioritisation Example: Marginal Abatement Costs
Some Conclusions and Observations
• Active Buildings can make a positive contribution to energy policy objectives and provide a platform for future systems in general
• Energy policy objectives• A smart, meshed network platform• Better living conditions• Supply chain and new employment opportunity
• Active Building standards should be recognised as setting “Best Available Technology” minimum standards
• Progress sooner is better than later• GHGs have an environmental ‘discount rate’• Policy regret in delay is cumulative• System evolution is all but inevitable• Know-how, impetus and opportunity in Wales is exceptional
• Prioritisation and planning are key enablers