and the economic outlook · animal spirits and the economic outlook robert j. shiller arthur m....
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Animal Spirits
And the Economic Outlook
Robert J. Shiller
Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics
Yale University
London School of Economics, 20 May, 2009
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Ed Koren cover for Akerlof-Shiller Animal Spirits, Princeton, 2009
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From R. Shiller Irrational Exuberance,
2nd Edition, Spring 2005
• “Significant further rises in these markets could lead,
eventually, to even more significant declines. The
bad outcome could be that eventual declines would
result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal
bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string
of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well.
Another long-run consequence could be a decline in
consumer and business confidence, and another,
possibly worldwide, recession.”
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US Real GDP and Residential Investment
Quarterly 1947-I to 2009-I
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UK Real GDP and Construction
Quarterly 1958-I to 2009-I1
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US Unemployment Rate
Annual 1890-1947
Monthly Jan 1948-April 2009
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UK and US Unemployment Rate,
Jan 1971-March-April 2009
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X4 on Michigan Consumer
Sentiment Survey 1951-2009
• x4: "Looking ahead, which would you say is
more likely--that in the country as a whole
we'll have continuous good times during the
next five years or so, or that we will have
periods of widespread unemployment or
depression, or what?"
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Depression Confidence (Tabulating
Michigan Question X4 1951-2009)
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Real S&P Composite Stock Price Index and Real Earnings,
Monthly, Jan 1871 to May 15, 2009
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Real (S&P Composite) Price Divided by 10-Year Average Real
Earnings, Monthly, Jan 1871 to May 15, 2009
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Real FTSE 100 and Real S&P 500
Compared Jan 1987-May 15, 2009
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Real House Prices – Greater London (Halifax),
Los Angeles (S&P/Case-Shiller) through 2009-I
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Los Angeles: Real (Inflation-Corrected) S&P/Case-Shiller Price
Indices for Low-, Middle- and High-Priced Homes,
Monthly Jan 1987-Feb 2009 (1987=100)
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15
US Home Prices 1890 to 2008 Q4
With Annual Building Costs,
Population, Ten-Year Treasury Yield