analytical politics melvin hinich 1. citizens have defined tradable property rights 2. a non corrupt...
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Analytical Politics
Melvin Hinich
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1. Citizens have defined tradable property rights
2. A non corrupt judicial system that defends these property rights
3. Local governments with the power to tax for local public services
4. Competitive elections for the executive & legislative branches
7. Protection of civil rights including religious toleration
8. Many people understand how politics affects their interests &there is no something for nothing
6. A stable currency & a sound banking system
A Stable Democracy Requires these 8 Attributes
5. A political balance between the executive & the legislature
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One Two Three
A C B
B A C
C B A
A is preferred to B by One & Two
Condorcet’s Counter ExampleCondorcet’s Counter Example
B is preferred to C by One & Three
C is preferred to A by Two & ThreeMajority rule can yield a cycle Majority rule can yield a cycle over the choices!over the choices!
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AgendasAgendas
• A versus B - the winner against C
• A versus C - the winner against B
• B versus C - the winner against A
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FourFour AlternativesAlternatives
One Two Three
A D C
B A D
C B A
D C B
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Four AlternativesFour Alternatives Agendas Agendas
• A versus B - the winner against C - the winner against D• A versus B - the winner against D - the winner against C • A versus C - the winner against B - the winner against D• A versus C - the winner against D - the winner against B• A versus D - the winner against B - the winner against C• A versus D - the winner against C - the winner against B• B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D• B versus C - the winner against D - the winner against A• B versus C - the winner against A - the winner against D• B versus D - the winner against A - the winner against C• B versus D - the winner against C - the winner against A• C versus D - the winner against A - the winner against B• C versus D - the winner against B - the winner against A
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Single Peaked Preference
x Ideal Point
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ax
bx dx
cx medianx
Median Ideal Point
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1x
2x
's Ideal Point
Circular Preference Preference
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cx
1 2,c bx x
bx
ax
Three Individuals with Circular Preferences
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Preference ModelPreference Model
• Voters have quadratic utility functions• Voter v's quadratic utility for party p’s
policy position
• Voter ideal position• Party credibility score • Weights -
2 211 1 1 12 1 1 2 2 2 22v vp v v v v v vU c a x a x x x
pθ
1 2,v v vx xx
vpc
11 12, , & v va a
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1ix
2ix Ideal Point for Budget 2
Ideal Point for Budget 1
Weighted Euclidean PreferenceWeighted Euclidean Preference
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Latent Ideological SpaceLatent Ideological Space1 Issue positions cluster: If I know what you think on defense and environmental policy, I can guess what you think of school lunch subsidies.
2 Shared meaning: This clustering phenomenon is not purely atomistic, so that ideological positions such as “liberal” and “conservative” have similar meanings to different people.
3 Constraint: If the effective space of political conflict is “ideological” in the sense above , the strategies of candidates (and hence the choices for voters) in the policy space are highly constrained.
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Communication:To provide voters with a message they can understand and use to makechoices, parties must simplify their message.
Because only broad statements of principles can be used in advertising and position-taking, the latitude for more subtle distinctions and differences is highly circumscribed.
Ideological positions emerge for solving problems of uncertainty and lack of information.
The space evolves as groups struggle to alter the status quo.
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The Linear Linkage ModelThe Linear Linkage Model voter i’s ideal point in an issue space
1, ,i i imx x x 1, ,i i imx x x
1, ,i i imx x x
1 , ,pi p i pmiθ i’s perception of candidate p’s issue positions
1 1,p p p π candidate p’s position in a 2D ideological space
1 1 2 2ijp ij ij p ij pb v v
1,...,i i imb bb i’s perception of the status quo policies
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Ideal Point on the Ideological SpaceIdeal Point on the Ideological Space
2
ip i p iU
Aθ b v π xUtility function
i i i ii
i i i
z
v A x b
v A v
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Liberals
Tories
Navy Budget
Tories - % Duty Liberals - % Duty
% Import Duty
Tories - Navy Budget
Liberals - Navy Budget
Ideological Linkage with Issues - Example 2
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Linkage between the Latent Political Space & IssuesLinkage between the Latent Political Space & Issues
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Candidate Map for 1992
xbar
Ideal Point Mean
barbara
reps
dems
jesse
buchanan
hillary
gore
quayle
perot
clinton
bush
-130
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
-85 -65 -45 -25 -5 15 35
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Candidate Map for 1996
xbar
Ideal Point Mean
kemp
reps
dems
robertson
lamar
gramm
forbes
powell
newt
jesse
buchanan
hillary gore
perot
dole
clinton
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30
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Candidate Map for 2000
xbar
mccain
reforms
reps
demshillary
cheneylieberman
bradley
nader
buchanan
gwbushgore
clinton
-40
-20
0
20
40
-12 -6 0 6 12
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Candidate Map for 2004
gwbush
kerry
nader
cheney
edwards
hillaryclinton
powell
ashcroft
mccaindems
reps
reaganIdeal Point Mean
xbar
-55
-35
-15
5
25
45
-55 -35 -15 5 25
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Private Poll - 2007Private Poll - 2007
Lieberman
Nader
BushSr
Heston
Hillary
McCain
Forbes
Powell
RobertsonRushJessieJ
ArnieS
WClarkTKennedy
Dole
Daschle
Edwards
Sharpton
Dean
Kerry
Reagan
Condi CheneyCarter
ClintonGore
Bush
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Candidate Respondent
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Political Actor Positioning
IndependentLeft
Center Left
Center
Center-Right
RightBachelet
Arrate
Piñera
Frei
Enriquez-Ominami
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IdealRight
Center-RightCenter
Center-Left
Left
Independent
Arrate
Pinera
Frei
Enriquez-Ominami
Lagos
ZaldivarLongueira
Navarro
Lavin
Bachelet
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
May 2009May 2009
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BACIdeal
RightCenter-RightCenter
Center-Left
Left
Independent
Arrate
Pinera
Frei
Enriquez-Ominami
Lagos
ZaldivarLongueira
Navarro
Lavin
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Late OctoberLate October