analysis of the latest developments in turkish merchandise trade
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ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE. Nihan ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert 7 November 2011 Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS). Latest Developments in Turkish Economy -I. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH
MERCHANDISE TRADEMERCHANDISE TRADE
Nihan ODABAŞINihan ODABAŞIAssistant Foreign Trade ExpertAssistant Foreign Trade Expert
7 November 20117 November 2011Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in
Services Statistics (WPTGS)Services Statistics (WPTGS)
Turkish economy registered the most rapid economic growth in Europe for 2010 and for the first half of 2011.
While total domestic demand increased by 13.4 % in 2010, this rate was 16.5 % for the 1st quarter of 2011 and 13.6 % for the 2nd quarter of 2011.
Industrial production index increased by a fairly high proportion of 13.1 % in 2010. In addition, it has also remarkable increase rates in the first eight months of 2011.
Unemployment rate has risen up to 16.1 % in February 2009 during global crises period. It dropped towards 11.9 % in 2010 because of the rapid economic recovery and production increase.
Whereas Turkish merchandise exports and imports were 113.9 bn dollars and 185.5 bn dollars in 2010 respectively, exports were realized by 88.7 bn dollars and imports were realized by 160.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011.
Latest Developments in Turkish EconomyLatest Developments in Turkish Economy-I-I
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 22November 2011November 2011
Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7.66 % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year. And, it also increased by 3.27 % compared with the previous month of this year.
While Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 12.58 % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year, the monthly increase in PPI was realised by 1.60 %.
When current account deficit was realised by 47.7 bn dollars in 2010, it was realised by 54.3 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011.
9.3 bn dollars foreign direct investment entered into Turkey in 2010. This value was realised by 10.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011.
Latest Developments in Turkish EconomyLatest Developments in Turkish Economy-II-II
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 33November 2011November 2011
There is a similarity between GDP growth and the percentage changes of export and import since 2002.
Source: TURKSTAT
Foreign Trade and GDPForeign Trade and GDP (%) (%)
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 44November 2011November 2011
Foreign Trade DevelopmentsForeign Trade Developments
In the period of January-August 2011 compared with the same month of 2010,Exports and imports increased by 21.9 % and 39.3 % respectively. Trade deficit reached to 71.4 billion dollars, rising by 69.5 %.
Source: Turkstat
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 55
20020099 - 2010 - 2010 / Jan.-Aug. 2011/ Jan.-Aug. 2011 Yearly
(Billion Dollars) Change (%) Jan.-Aug. (Billion Dollars) Change (%)
2009 2010 10/09 2010 2011 11/10Exports (FOB) 102.1 113.9 11.6 72.8 88.7 21.9Imports (CIF) 140.9 185.5 31.7 114.9 160.1 39.3Trade Volume 243.1 299.4 23.2 187.7 248.8 32.6Trade Balance -38.8 -71.7 84.8 -42.1 -71.4 69.5Exports / Imports (%) 72.5 61.4 - 63 55 --
November 2011November 2011
Exports;Gradual increase since May 2009.
Imports; Gradual increase in parallel with exports.
Monthly Developments of Exports and ImportsMonthly Developments of Exports and Imports
Source: Turkstat
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 66November 2011November 2011
Foreign Trade Indices-MethodologyForeign Trade Indices-Methodology
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 77November 2011November 2011
Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-IExport Unit Value and Volume Indices-I
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 88November 2011November 2011
Export volume index is higher than export unit value index except the years of 2002, 2004 and 2008 in Turkey .
Source: Turkstat
Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-IIII
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 99November 2011November 2011
In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,o Export unit value index is increased by 15.9 %
• The export unit value index for agriculture and forestry, fishery, mining, manufacturing increased by 10.5 %, 19.3%, 10%, 16.3%, respectively.
Source: Turkstat
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1010November 2011November 2011
In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,o Export volume index is increased by 14.1 %
• While the export volume index for fishing, manufacturing increased by 11.5 %, 15.6 %, respectively, the index for agriculture and forestry decreased by 14.4 %. The index for mining remained unchanged.
Source: Turkstat
Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-IExport Unit Value and Volume Indices-IIIII
ImportImport Unit Value and Volume Indices-I Unit Value and Volume Indices-I
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1111November 2011November 2011
Import volume index is higher than import unit value index except the years of 2002 and 2008 in Turkey.
Source: Turkstat
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1212November 2011November 2011
In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,o Import unit value index is increased by 20.5 %
• The import unit value index for agriculture and forestry, mining, manufacturing increased by 42.4 %, 28.7 %, 17.3 %, respectively
Source: Turkstat
Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-IIII
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1313November 2011November 2011
In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,o Import volume index is increased by 4.9 %
• While the import volume index for agriculture and forestry and mining decreased by 14.9 %, 6.2 %, respectively, the index for manufacturing increased by 8.6 %
Source: Turkstat
Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-IImport Unit Value and Volume Indices-IIIII
Correlation Between Import, Export and Manufacturing IndustryCorrelation Between Import, Export and Manufacturing Industry
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1414November 2011November 2011
In January 2008-August 2011,o There is 90 % correlation between manufacturing industry production
and import volume indiceso There is 77 % correlation between manufacturing industry production
and export volume indices
Source: Turkstat
Unit Value Indices of Exports, Imports & Terms of TradeUnit Value Indices of Exports, Imports & Terms of Trade
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1515November 2011November 2011
In Turkey import prices are higher than export prices in general. According to the higher import prices, terms of trade are fixed down the value of 100. As a result, much more amount of goods should be exported for a unit of imports.
Source: Turkstat
Export Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (ISIC)Export Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (ISIC)
(MILLION DOLLARS) 2009 2010Unit Value
IndexVolume Index
Unit Value Index
Volume Index
AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY 176.0 116.5 189.1 123.2FISHERY 107.2 218.4 112.1 165.7MINING AND QUARRYING 144.2 248.8 168.6 338.4MANUFACTURING 138.3 155.5 144.4 164.6 MOTOR VEHICLES, TRAILERS AND SEMI-TRAILERS 131.2 180.4 125.9 216.0 BASIC METALS 165.8 234.5 197.8 188.1 TEXTILES 124.3 112.0 130.9 121.6 WEARING APPAREL, DRESSING AND DYEING OF FUR 127.6 92.3 128.5 101.5 MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 140.2 184.7 138.2 210.0 FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES 153.9 145.4 161.5 156.7 CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 145.2 156.1 151.9 198.1 FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS, EXCEPT MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 170.2 174.7 167.6 197.5
RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS 144.6 190.6 144.2 231.5 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND APPARATUS 178.2 188.4 179.7 221.8
GENERAL 139.7 154.8 146.5 164.6
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1616
ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification
Source:Turkstat
November 2011November 2011
2003=100
Import Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (BEC)Import Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (BEC)
2009 2010
Unit Value Index
Volume Index
Unit Value Index
Volume Index
CAPITAL GOODS 106.4 178.1 104.8 242.9
INTERMEDIATE GOODS 157.7 126.8 178.5 148.0
Unprocessed materials incidental to industry 165.7 112.3 220.3 129.7 Processed materials incidental to industry 148.5 121.5 168.6 144.5 Unprocessed fuels and oils 225.6 98.7 259.6 107.3 Parts of investment goods 120.2 142.5 115.4 162.2 Parts of transportation vehicles 131.8 150.7 125.5 213.4 Unprocessed materials of food and beverages 158.7 136.6 163.6 178.5 Processed materials of food and beverages 179.7 127.7 190.5 111.2 Processed fuels and oils 184.1 190.0 229.3 206.6
CONSUMPTION GOODS 119.6 206.3 118.4 267.4TOTAL 141.9 143.2 154.6 173.0
BEC: Broad Economic Categories
Directorate General of Economic Research and AssessmentDirectorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 1717November 2011November 2011
Source: Turkstat
2003=100
ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH
MERCHANDISE TRADEMERCHANDISE TRADE
NİHAN ODABAŞIAssistant Foreign Trade Expert
Republic of Turkey Ministry of EconomyGeneral Directorate of Economic Research and Assessment
[email protected]@ekonomi.gov.tr