analysis of motorcycle crashes: comparison of 2012 to previous years
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Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years. Carol A. Flannagan, Ph.D. Center for the Management of Information for Safe and Sustainable Transportation (CMISST) Biosciences Group, UMTRI. Motorcycle Crashes. The motorcycle helmet law was modified as of April 13, 2012 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Analysis of Motorcycle Crashes: Comparison of 2012 to Previous Years
Carol A. Flannagan, Ph.D.Center for the Management of Information for Safe and
Sustainable Transportation (CMISST)Biosciences Group, UMTRI
Motorcycle Crashes
The motorcycle helmet law was modified as of April 13, 2012
What was the picture of motorcycle crashes in 2012 and how did they change (or not) compared to previous years?
Annual Numbers
Annual motorcycle crashes:
Year Total Crashes
2008 39692009 33382010 32852011 31042012 3510
Annual Numbers
Occupants of motorcycles in crashes:
Year Total People
2008 44932009 38122010 37412011 35092012 3948
Who is involved in motorcycle crashes?2008-2011
Who is involved in motorcycle crashes?2012
What About Helmet Use?
Time Period Year(s)
Helmet Use Rate in
Crashes
Jan 1-Apr 122008-2011 97%
2012 96%
Apr 13-Dec 312008-2011 98%
2012 74%
*74% is probably an underestimate of the true helmet use rate on the road
Fatalities and InjuriesApr 13-Dec 31
Year(s)Helmet
Use
Fatalities (per year)
Serious Injuries
(per year)
Percent Fatal
Percent Serious Injury
2011 Yes 97 574 3.2% 19%
No 6 23 7.2% 31%
2012 Yes 56 390 2.3% 16%
No 55 194 6.5% 23%
Fatalities and InjuriesApr 13-Dec 31
• Overall fatality rate in 2011 = 3.3%
• Overall fatality rate for 2012 = 3.4%
• Fatality rate was 2.8 times higher for those who didn’t wear helmets in 2012 compared to those who did
Who Wears Helmets?
Role Year(s) Helmet Rate
Driver 2008-11 98%
2012 74%
Passenger 2008-11 97%
2012 75%
Who Wears Helmets?
Gender Year(s) Helmet Rate
Male 2008-11 98%
2012 73%
Female 2008-11 97%
2012 78%
Who Wears Helmets?
Driver Drinking Year(s)Helmet Use
Rate
Driver Not Drinking
2008-11 98%
2012 76%
Driver Drinking 2008-11 90%
2012 54%
Who Wears Helmets?
Category Year(s)
Percent Riders with
Drinking Driver
Helmet 2008-11 7.1%2012 5.2%
No Helmet 2008-11 30%2012 13%
How Does Fatality Risk Change with Alcohol and Helmet Use?
Helmet Use Alcohol Use Year Percent Killed
Helmet WornDriver Drinking 2011 12.3%
2012 11.1%Driver Not Drinking
2011 2.6%2012 1.8%
No Helmet Worn
Driver Drinking 2011 13.0%2012 14.7%
Driver Not Drinking
2011 4.3%2012 5.3%
Separating the Effect of Alcohol from the Effect of the Helmet
How do we figure out what the helmet does separate from risk-taking factors like alcohol use?
Regression models allow us to predict risk of fatality or injury account for alcohol, speed, age, and other factors
Bottom Line…
Taking risk-taking factors into account, we find:
•Alcohol more than quadruples the risk of death and nearly triples the risk of serious injury•After accounting for other risk factors, not wearing a helmet doubles the risk of fatality and increases the risk of serious injury by 60%
Bottom Line…
If we apply the models to 2012 data and predict what would have happened if all riders had worn helmets, we would expect:
•26 fewer deaths (21% reduction)
•49 fewer serious injuries (8% reduction)
Thanks for your attention.
University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI)