analysis of 2013 fata general election results (fafen report, january 2014)

FREE AND FAIR ELECTION NETWORKw w w . f a f e n . o r g

lecE t

ir oi na

F N

e&

twe oer r kF

FA NFE

National Assembly ElectionResults Analysis

Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT),Comparative Turnout and Party Trends

January 2014

2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Free and Fair Election Network2013 General Elections in PakistanNational Assembly Election Results Analysis:Parallel Vote Tabulations (PVTs), Comparative Turnout and Party TrendsJanuary 2014

All rights reserved. Any part of this publication may beproduced or translated by duly acknowledging the source.

1st Edition: January 2014. Copies 1,000

FAFEN is governed by the Trust for Democratic Education and Accountability (TDEA)TDEA-FAFEN Election Observation Secretariat:House 145, Street 37, F-10/1Islamabad, PakistanEmail: [email protected]: www.fafen.org

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The scope and magnitude of the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) election observation effort required “all hands on deck” before and on Election Day and beyond, and the network is fortunate and proud to boast a team that collectively rose to the challenge. This report is the culmination of their hard work, perseverance and resourcefulness.

More than 40,000 Election Day male and female observers were mobilized, trained and managed by extremely hardworking and committed staff of FAFEN member organizations. In addition, the entire staff at the TDEA-FAFEN Secretariat worked around the clock to make the election observation effort a success.

TDEA-FAFEN Chief Executive Officer Muddassir Rizvi, Director of Program Rashid Chaudhry and Rizwan Ayub deserve special mention, along with their incredible team, including Fatima Raja, Rashid Abdullah, Raffat Malik, Khan Bahadur, Faisal Khanzada and Ashley Barr. They worked tirelessly to design FAFEN's observation methodologies and to implement multiple, complex and time-sensitive trainings for all FAFEN election observers. FAFEN's success also would not have been possible without the extraordinary effort by Syed Abdul Ahad, Safia Zain and their team, who worked long hours to secure accreditation of FAFEN's observers by the Election Commission of Pakistan.

The tremendous amount of data received as a result of this unprecedented initiative has been managed and analyzed into insightful findings and recommendations for election reforms by Director Election Oversight, Research and Reforms Saud Sahibzada. He was supported by FAFEN's data management team, led by Ch. M. Yasser Javed with assistance from Asma Bibi, Adeela Hamid, Ibrahim Mughal, Shahid Zaidi and a host of data entry officers, who laid the foundation for the analysis. The contribution of GIS expert Adeel Arif helped realize the goal of mapping constituencies and plotting variables on regional maps. The report writing and editing unit, which was led by Usama Zafar and included Kamran Aziz and Mohsin Shayan, crafted the narration of this report and helped see it through three drafts. This list of key contributors would not be complete without mentioning the talented FAFEN report design team of Hammad Hussain, Muhammad Rizwan and Azhar Ali.

TDEA-FAFEN appreciates the generous financial support of the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), the European Union (EU), the United States Agency for International Aid (USAID) and The Asia Foundation (TAF). In addition, TDEA-FAFEN wishes to acknowledge the Election Commission for allowing Pakistan's largest citizen observation of an election, setting a new benchmark for election transparency in Pakistan.

Zahid Islam,

Chairperson

TDEA-FAFEN Board of Trustees

Trustees:

Faiz-ur-Rehman Mashal

Ghaffar Shah

Maimoona Noor

Mossarat Qadeem

Mukhtar Javed

Nasrullah

Owais Aslam Ali

Sadiqa Sallahuddin

Sarwar Bari

Shakir Ishaq

Syed Shah Nasir Khisro

Younas Bandhani

Zaheer Khattak

Zahid Islam

Zubair Ambia

Association for Creation of Employment (ACE)

All Women's Advancement and Resource Development (AWARD)

Awaz Foundation Pakistan-Centre for Development Services

Baanhn Beli

BEDARI

Basic Education for Awareness Reforms and Empowerment (BEFARe)

CAVISH Development Foundation

Community Awareness Raising and Advocacy Ventures Around Needs (CARAVAN)

Community Development Program (CDP)

Centre for Peace and Development (CPD)

Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives (CPDI)

Center for Research and Development (CRD)

DEVCON-An Association for Rural Development

Goth Seengar Foundation (GSF)

Indus Resource Centre (IRC)

Integrated Regional Support Program (IRSP)

Khwendo Kor

LEGEND Society

Punjab Lok Sujag

PAIMAN Alumni Trust

PATTAN Development Organization

Forum for Human Rights Pakistan (FHRP)

SANGAT Development Foundation

Strengthening Participatory Organization (SPO)

SUDHAAR

SUNGI Development Foundation

Takhleeq Foundation

United Rural Development Organization (URDO)

Youth Organization

Implementing Partners

ABBREVIATIONS AHTP Awami Himayat Tehreek PakistanAJIP Awami Jamhuri Ittehad PakistanAJPP Awami Justice Party PakistanAJSP Aap Janab Sarkar PartyAKUFR Aalay Kalam Ullah Farman Rasool (saw)AMLP Awami Muslim League PakistanANP Awami National PartyAPBP All Pakistan Bayrozgar PartyAPML All Pakistan Muslim LeagueAPP Azad Pakistan PartyAPYWP All Pakistan Youth Working PartyAQM Afgan Qomi Movement (Pakistan)AQP Awami Qiadat PartyAWP Awami Workers PartyBNAP Bahawalpur National Awami PartyBNC Balochistan National CongressBNDP Balochistan National Democratic PartyBNM Balochistan National MovementBNP Balochistan National PartyBNP-A Balochistan National Party (Awami)CPM Christian Progressive MovementCPP Communist Party of PakistanGAP Ghareeb Awam PartyHAIP Hazara Awami Ittehad PakistanHDP Hazara Democratic PartyHQM Hazara Qaumi MahazIIP Islami Inqalab PartyIMH Ittehad Milli HazaraIND IndependentIP Istiqlil PartyIPM Istehkaam-e-Pakistan MovementIRP Islamic Republican PartyITP Islami Tehreek PakistanJAHP-EZ Jamait Ahle-Hadith Pakistan (Elahi Zaheer)JI Jamaat-e-Islami PakistanJPP Jannat Pakistan PartyJQM Jamote Qami MovementJUI Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (F)JUI-Nazryati Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam Nazryati PakistanJUI-S Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (S)JUP-Niazi Jamiat Ulma-e-Pakistan (Niazi)JUP-Noorani Jamiat Ulma-e-Pakistan (Noorani)JUP-NS JamiatUlema-e-pakistan(Nifaz-e-Shariat)JWP Jamhoori Wattan PartyKJPP Kakar Jamhoori Party PakistanKMP Karwan-i-Millat PakistanLPP Labour Party PakistanLPP-K Labour Party Pakistan(Krandi)MAPP Menecracy Action Party of PakistanMBMP Mutahida Baloch Movement PakistanMDM Mutahida Deeni MahazMIT Mohajir Ittehad TehrikMJH Markazi Jamat-al-HadaisMJMP Markazi Jamiat Mushaikh PakistanMJUP (FK) Markazi Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (FK)MMA Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal PakistanMNAKA Mohib-e-Wattan Nowjawan Inqilabion Ki AnjumanMP MustaqbIl PakistanMQM Muttahidda Qaumi MovementMQMP Mohajar Qaumi Movement PakistanMQP Mutahidda Qabil PartyMWMP Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen PakistanNA National AllianceNMP Nizam-e-Mustafa PartyNP National PartyNPP National Peoples PartyNPP-WG National People Party Worker GroupPAI Pakistan Awami InqalabPAmP Pakistan Aman PartyPAP Pakistan Awami PartyPAQP Pakistan Awami Quwat PartyPasban PasbanPAT Pakistan Awami TehreekPATI Pakistan Awami Tehrik-e-Inqilab

PBP Pakistan Brohi PartyPCM Pakistan Citizen MovementPCP Pakistan Conservative PartyPDP Pakistan Democratic partyPFP Pakistan Freedom PartyPFP (Falah) Pakistan Falah PartyPGP Pakistan Gharib PartyPHRP Pakistan Human Rights PartyPIHP Pakistan Insani Haqook PartyPIJP Pakistan Islami Justice PartyPIT Pakistan Ittehad TehreekPJP Pakistan Justice PartyPKI Pakistan Kissan IttehadPKMAP Pukhtoonkhwa Milli Awami PartyPMA Pak Muslim AlliancePMhL Pakistan Muhajir LeaguePMKP Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan PartyPML Pakistan Muslim LeaguePMLC Pakistan Muslim League CouncilPML-F Pakistan Muslim League (F)PML-H Pakistan Muslim League “H” HaqiqiPML-Humkhiyal Pakistan Muslim League Humkhiyal (Like Minded)PML-J Pakistan Muslim League (J)PML-M Pakistan Muslim League-MuttahidaPML-N Pakistan Muslim League (N)PML-S Pakistan Muslim League (S)PML-Z Pakistan Muslim League(Z)PMP Pakistan Muhammadi PartyPMWP Pakistan Muhafiz Watan PartyPNDP Pakistan National Democratic PartyPNML Pakistan National Muslim LeaguePNP Punjab National PartyPPM Pakistan Patriotic MovementPPPP Pakistan Peoples Party ParliamentariansPPP-S Pakistan Peoples party(Sherpao)PPP-SB Pakistan Peoples Party (Shaheed Bhutto)PQL Pakistan Qaumi LeaguePQP Pakistan Qaumi PartyPSDP Pakistan Social Democratic partyPSP Pakistan Saraiki PartyPSPP Pakistan Shia Political PartyPST Pakistan Sunni TehreekPTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-InsafPTI (Inqalab) Pakistan Tehreek-e-InqalabPWP Pak Wattan PartyPWrP Pakistan Workers PartyQAT Qomi Awami TehreekQIP Qaumi Inqilab PartyQJP Qaumi Jamhoori PartyQTP Qaumi Tahaffaz Party of PakistanQWP Qaumi Watan PartyRPMWP Roshan Pakistan Muhaibban Wattan PartySDI Sindh Dost Ittehad (SDI) PartySIC Sunni Ittehad CouncilSPkP Salam Pakistan PartySPP Shan-e-Pakistan PartySQI Sairkistan Qaumi IttehadSSMP Seraiki Sooba Movement PakistanST Sunni TehreekSTP Sindh Taraqi Passand Party (STP)SUP Sindh United PartySURA Sindh Urban-Rurel AllianceTHP Tehreek Hussainia PakistanTI Tehrik-e-IstaqlalTIP Tehreek-e-Istehkaam PakistanTIUP Tehreek-e-Ittehad Ummat PakistanTM Tehrik-e-MasawaatTPP Tameer-e-Pakistan PartyTSH Tehreek-e-Suba HazaraTTNP Tehreek Tabdili Nizam PakistanTTP Tehreek-e-Tahaffuze PakistanTWP Tehreek-e-Wafaq Pakistan

TABLE OF CONTENTSKEY FINDINGS i

Registered Voters Conundrum i

Turnout Trends ii

Higher Number of Rejected Votes iii

Voting and Party Trends iii

PVT FINDINGS iv

PVT METHODOLOGY v

Background v

PVT Sample v

READING PVT FINDINGS vi

Statistical Equivalence vi

Reading PVT vii

Population and Sample: Registered Voters viii

Population and Sample: Distribution of Polling Stations viii

Categorization of Form XIV viii

Comparative Turnout by Type of Polling Stations viii

Election Day Observations at a Glance viii

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (NA-1 to NA-35)

pg. 1 to 1471 to 147

ISLAMABAD CAPITAL TERRITORY(NA-48, NA-49)

pg. 197 to 211197 to 211

SINDH(NA-198 to NA-258)

pg. 805 to 1047805 to 1047

FATA(NA-36 to NA-47)

pg. 149 to 195149 to 195

PUNJAB(NA-50 to NA-197)

pg. 213 to 803213 to 803

BALOCHISTAN(NA-259 to NA-272)

pg. 1049 to 11111049 to 1111

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I i

KEY FINDINGS

to the 2008 elections. The increase across the constituencies, however, remained skewed. The addition of new voters ranged from a mere 284 in NA-169 to a substantial 143,117 in NA-128.

Ÿ The issue of under-registration of women voters continues to shadow the constitutionally promised universality and equal representation of voters in the 2013 elections, albeit with varying intensity across regions. Of the 86.2 million voters, 43.6% were females compared to the 80 million voters in 2008 with 44% female voters.

Ÿ· At the provincial level, the ratio has skewed further towards the male side in Punjab and Balochistan—percentages of female voters

1. Registered Voters Conundrum

The 2013 elections were the first to be held on voters' list compiled from the data of Computerized National Identity Cards (CNIC) holders. While the measure did affect an increase in the overall number of registered voters, the impact on registered voters' numbers for constituencies varied.

Ÿ Compared with the 2008 elections, the number of registered voters decreased in 100 constituencies. The decrease in constituencies' voters varied from the lowest of 580 in NA-168 to the highest of 241,692 in NA-266.

Ÿ In the rest–166 of the 266 constituencies–the number of registered voters increased compared

The 2013 general elections in Pakistan marked a watershed in the electoral and democratic history of the country. The elections were held following the completion of the constitutional tenure of the outgoing assemblies—the first such transition from one purely civilian government to another. The elections were also the first to be organized by the post-18th Constitutional Amendment restructuring of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

FAFEN, the leading civil society network covering issues of election and governance, achieved its own landmark in implementing the largest citizen observation exercise to date. The findings of the observation, both on-field and desk, are compiled in a series of reports covering all aspects of the 2013 National Assembly general elections. One of several, this report focuses on the election results and their historical and comparative significance at the constituency level.

The goal behind the report is to present not only a citizen-led Parallel Vote Tabulation exercise but also an in-depth analysis of party and turnout trends and voting pattern in each National Assembly constituency. Furthermore, given the lack of data in previous elections on turnout trends across the gender divide, the report partially answers the question at regional and national levels by calculating the estimated turnouts by the three (male, female and combined) types of polling stations. FAFEN believes the report will serve as an academic and practical guide to understand the complexities of voting behavior in light of each constituency's political context.

The report has been prepared by information obtained through the official documents released by the ECP as well as through field observers deployed by FAFEN on Election Day, in particular the Form XIV - the forms on which the results of polling stations are compiled by the presiding officers.

This report reviews the results of 266 of the 272 general seats of the National Assembly. The remaining six constituencies are not in the purview of this report owing to reasons listed as under.

a. Elections were not held in three constituencies (NA-38, NA-83 and NA-254) as part of the general election exercise.

b. The gazette results were withheld due to:

i. ECP's order of re-polling at 21 polling stations of NA-46

ii. ECP's order for recounting of votes in NA-103

iii. Supreme Court order to withhold the notification for NA-237

The key findings, as does the rest of the report, therefore, do not account for the above-mentioned constituencies. The summary of findings, covering 266 of the 272 National Assembly general seats, is as follows.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I

changed from 45.9% in 2008 to 42.6% in 2013 in Balochistan and dropped from 45% in 2008 to 43.8% in 2013 in Punjab. The percentages of female voters have increased from 2008 to 2013 in; FATA (from 30.1% to 34.2%), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (from 40.7% to 42.8%), ICT (from 45.8% to 46.3%) and more marginally in Sindh (from 44.2% to 44.8%).

Ÿ Constituency level tracking of registered voters from the finalization of the polling scheme to the result Form XVII and official gazette reveals discrepancies. First, the final polling scheme was not published for the 14 constituencies of Balochistan and two constituencies of Punjab, namely, NA-105 and NA-107. Furthermore, while the final polling scheme files for NA-90 and NA-178 are available on the ECP website, the data is not accessible for the former due to password protected status of the file. In the case of the latter, NA-178, the file only has the overall voter and polling scheme totals and not the detailed polling scheme itself. It is important to note that the calculation of registered voters in the final polling scheme is based on the listing and calculation of the voter numbers against the smallest unit in the polling scheme–the census bloc.

Ÿ The distribution of constituencies showing voter discrepancy is significantly skewed across regions. Punjab leads with 57 of the 93 constituencies showing a difference of voters between the final polling scheme and result Form XVII. Khyber Pukhtunkhwa has 16 such constituencies followed by Sindh (15), FATA (4) and ICT (1). Of the total of 246,858 votes in question, Punjab accounts for 233,225 (94.5%), Khyber Pukhtunkhwa 6,462 (2.6%), Sindh 6,317(2.6%), FATA 580 (0.2%) and ICT 274 (0.1%).

1Ÿ Of the rest of the 254 constituencies, the

numbers of registered voters in 93 constituencies were recorded differently in their

2respective final polling scheme and election 3results . An absolute discrepancy of

v o t e r s w a s r e c o r d e d i n t h e 9 3 constituencies—decrease of 39,499 in 30 constituencies and increase of 207,359 in 63 constituencies.

Ÿ Furthermore, the number of registered voters for the constituencies is not mentioned in the official gazette of returned candidates. While the

246,858

number of registered votes was mentioned earlier in unofficial result Form XVII, it was the number of rejected votes that was not mentioned in Form XVII.

The turnout across regions and most constituencies shows encouraging trends. PVT estimates aggregated for the 266 constituencies show a turnout of 54.7% (+/-0.03%) at the national level–ECP's turnout for the same is 55.7%.

Ÿ Barring 11 constituencies, the rest—255 constituencies—recorded a turnout in excess of 35%--turnout of 26 constituencies ranged between 35-45%, 61 in the range of 45.1-55%, 152 constituencies in the range of 55.1-65%, while that of 16 constituencies surpassed 65%.

Ÿ Compared to their respective average turnout of the 2002 and 2008 elections, only six constituencies recorded a decrease in the 2013 elections. Of the six, three constituencies'– NAs-272, 271 and 42–turnout declined substantially by 17.3%, 15.3% and 13.6% respectively. Three other constituencies'–NAs 26, 106 and 107–turnout dropped by less than 1%. Of the other 260 constituencies, 23 constituencies recorded an increase in excess of 20%, 72 had an increase ranging from 15-20%, 74 between 10.1-15%, 73 between 5.1 to 10% range while 18 recorded a marginal increase under 5%.

Ÿ The turnout analysis by demographic categories has the rural constituencies leading the chart with majority rural and predominantly rural constituencies recording turnouts of 58% and 56% respectively. Majority urban, semi-urban and predominantly urban constituencies follow with 55.5%, 53.5% and 53.2% respectively.

Ÿ From a comparative perspective however, the ranking is led by the urban constituencies. The substantial increase in turnout is most evident in semi-urban constituencies where compared to the 2008 elections, the 2013 turnout increased by 17%, followed by majority urban and predominantly urban constituencies with turnout increase of 13.2% and 12.8% respectively. Among rural constituencies, the predominantly rural constituencies achieved an increase of 10.9% in their collective turnout while the majority rural recorded an increase of 10.6% compared to the 2008 elections.

2. Turnout Trends

ii

1 Balochistan's 14 constituencies as well as NA-90, NA-105, NA-170 and NA-178 are not accounted for owing to the non-availability of their final polling schemes.2 Detailed final polling scheme for all regions barring Balochistan and four constituencies of Punjab were accessible at http://ecp.gov.pk/PollingScheme.aspx, downloaded on May 16th, 2013.3 Form XVII data was accessible from http://ecp.gov.pk/electionresult/AllResults.aspx?assemblyid=NA , downloaded on September 16th, 2013.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I iii

Ÿ A closer look at the turnout trend reveals a continuation of female under-participation compared to male voters. The PVT estimates aggregated at national and regional levels by types of polling station exhibits lower turnout trends at female exclusive polling stations compared to exclusively male and combined polling stations. The estimated turnout for female polling stations was 50.7% (±0.07%) whereas the turnouts for male and combined polling stations were 58.5% (±0.06%) and 54.8% (±0.04%) respectively.

A key issue observed in the 2013 elections is the disproportionate and significant increase in the number of rejected votes—the number while increasing from 775,720 in 2002 to 973,694 in 2008 recorded a substantial increase of 64% to reach 1,502,717 in the 266 constituencies observed.

Ÿ The issue of rejected votes is critical not merely due to the numbers but also given the skewed distribution across constituencies and regions–the numbers range from 0 in NA-53 to 25,908 in NA-266.

Ÿ The distribution of rejected votes paints a somber picture in that only 27 of the 266 constituencies have less than 2,000 rejected votes. Of the rest, 78 had rejected votes from 2,000-5,000, 148 constituencies ranged in 5,001-10,000, and ten constituencies fell in the 10,001 to 15,000 category while three constituencies had rejected votes exceeding 15,000.

Ÿ From the results' perspective, the issue is highlighted further by the fact that the number of rejected votes exceeds the margin of victory in 35 of the 266 constituencies covered in this report. Of these, the rejected votes outnumber the margin of victory by less than 1,000 votes in six indicating an acquired importance of rejected votes due to close competition. In the other 29 constituencies, the number of rejected votes outweighs the margin of victory by as little as 1,140 (NA-153) and as many as 19,701 (NA-266).

The 2013 election witnessed returns for parties that varied across regions and provinces. While Sindh largely produced similar results—PPPP dominated rural Sindh while MQM urban areas, particularly Karachi—the other provinces underwent a significant change. PML-N and PTI were the largest

3. Higher Number of Rejected Votes

4. Voting and Party Trends

beneficiaries of the change in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while Pakhtun and Baloch nationalist parties made a strong comeback in Balochistan. Among the religious parties, JUI—while far from the overwhelming performance of MMA—secured significant votes and seats in both Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The elections, apart from Sindh, could be seen as an expression of no-confidence against the ruling party—PPPP—and its coalition partners.

Ÿ For the 2013 elections, a total of 4,462 contestants vied for the 266 constituencies covered in this report. PTI fielded the most candidates, competing from 230 constituencies, followed by PPPP (227), PML-N (215) and MQM (207). Independent candidates constituted the largest group with 2,343 while other parties fielded a total of 1,240 candidates cumulatively.

Ÿ From the perspective of gender representation and participation, the 2013 elections had the most female candidates (161) compared to the number of female candidates in the previous two elections—75 and 61 candidates contested in 2008 and 2002 elections respectively. Most–123 of the 161–contested either as independent candidates (95) or from the platform of smaller/regional parties (28). Among the mainstream parties, PPPP awarded tickets to 15 females, followed by MQM, PML-N, PTI, and PML with 8, 7, 6 and 2 candidates respectively.

Ÿ Of the 161 women contestants, only 6 were successful in winning their seats in the 2013 elections compared to 16 and 13 successful female candidates for the 2008 and 2002 general elections respectively. Three female candidates each from PPPP and PML-N secured the constituencies, as against successful female candidates representing four parties in 2008 and five in 2002.

Ÿ PML-N won 126 of the 266 constituencies covered in this report. PPPP was a distant second with 33 followed by PTI (28 seats), MQM (18), JUI (11), PML-F (5), JI and PKMAP (3 each), NPP and PML (2 each). Of the rest, 27 seats were secured by independent candidates while ANP, APML, PML-Z, BNP, AMLP, AJIP, QWP and NP shared one seat each.

Ÿ A measure of the desire for change among the electorate can be ascertained from the fact that of the 266 constituencies, 144 featured winning candidates with their current political affiliation for the first time since the 2002 election. Of the rest of the 116 constituencies, 58 each returned

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I

The PVT estimates calculated for 264 of the 272 constituencies reveals:

Ÿ The ECP's turnout in 62 of these constituencies is “equivalent” to the PVT estimated turnout. In the 202 constituencies where the ECP turnout is not equivalent of the PVT estimates, 141 constituencies' turnout exceeds the upper bound of the margin while 61 are under the lower bound.

Ÿ Of the 264 constituencies, 218 constituencies have the same winner, runner-up and second runner-up in both the ECP and PVT estimates.

Ÿ Of the remaining 46 constituencies, the PVT estimates for 18 constituencies have a different winner than the ECP's. These results however, are equivalent—the ECP candidates' shares are within the margin—and therefore do not foreclose the possibility of the results as announced by the ECP.

Ÿ Of the rest, while having a similar winner, the PVT estimates for 10 constituencies have a different runner-up with another 18, while having the same winner and runner-up, has a different 2nd runner-up. Accounting for the margin of sampling error for individual candidates, the ECP results are 'equivalent'—the ECP's candidate shares fall within the margin of sampling error.

Ÿ Individual assessment of the top three position holders in the PVT estimates compared with the ECP's data reveal 19 out of the 264 winners to be outside the margin of error. Of these 19, three winners had votes that were above the upper bound while 16 were below the lower bound.

Ÿ Among the runner-ups, 15 of the 264 had estimated share that were incompatible with the ECP's data—eight having share of votes exceeding the upper bound while seven below the lower bound.

Ÿ Among the second runner-ups, 19 of the 264 had estimated vote share for which the ECP data showed figures above or below the margin-adjusted estimates. Of these, 16 had share of votes that exceeded the upper bound while three had votes below the lower bound of the estimates.

PVT FINDINGS

iv

candidates/parties for the second and third consecutive time.

Ÿ PML-N replaced PPPP as the largest party, securing 14,794,632 (32.6%) of the 45,416,463 votes polled in the 266 constituencies. PTI was the distant second with 7,738,270 (17.0%) votes followed by PPPP (6,973,169 or 15.4% votes), MQM (2,455,313 or 5.4% votes) while independent candidates cumulatively got 5,810,894 (12.8%) votes. While no other party reached the 2 million vote figure, JUI (1,486,261), PML (1,410,113), and PML-F (1,072,846) were successful in garnering support of over 1 million voters.

Ÿ Among the three leading parties, PML-N secured the largest, though less than the majority share, of the votes polled in each of the five demographic categories of constituencies.

The party was able to get 29.1% of the votes polled in predominantly urban constituencies, 42.6% of the majority urban, 36.4% of semi urban, 31.5% of the majority rural and 33.1% of the predominantly rural constituencies.

Ÿ PTI, the second largest party had 24.7% of the vote polled in predominantly urban constituencies, 23.1% of the majority urban, 14.2% of the semi-urban, 13.8% of the majority rural and 15% of the votes polled in predominantly rural constituencies. PPPP as the third major party outperformed PTI in predominantly rural, majority rural and semi-urban constituencies securing 17.2%, 21.8% and 21.4% of the votes polled in the respective categories. The party however performed poorly in predominantly and majority urban constituencies securing 6.9% and 12.1% votes polled in the respective type of constituencies.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I v

PVT METHODOLOGYBackground

A Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) compares the observed vote count in a sample of polling stations with the compiled election result for that constituency in order to provide evidence that confirms or disputes the official election result. PVT methodology was developed over twenty years ago and has been applied in many countries around the world by international and domestic election monitoring organizations as a proven analytical method for verifying the accuracy of government vote counts. The PVT is based on direct observation of vote counting in a scientifically-verifiable, robust sample of the polling stations in each constituency.

Experience with past PVTs has shown that drawing a sample of 25-30 polling stations provides sufficient data, within a relatively small margin of sampling error, to assess the reasonableness of official election results. Adding additional polling stations to the sample, even when the number of total polling stations is large, would not improve the margins of sampling error dramatically.

The reason for this statistical principle is that a PVT works with “cluster samples” – each polling station “cluster” averages 1,000 registered voters, and 25 polling stations in a constituency produces a sample of 25,000 voters (25 polling stations x 1,000 voters each) which is much more than statistically sufficient to permit comparisons with official results.

Although the PVT cannot measure other election-related problems like vote buying, voter intimidation, ballot box stuffing, or the use of ghost polling stations, PVTs are designed to identify potential inaccuracies in the official count by comparing it with actual observed and verified vote counts at sampled polling stations. The PVT can help detect centralized changes in vote counts if the percentage vote in official count differs in a statistically significant way from the percentages calculated from the PVT sample. In cases in which election commissions release polling-station level election results, PVT counts for sampled polling stations and ECP polling station data can be compared directly.

PVT Sample

As one of its key objectives, the 2013 election observation framework of FAFEN envisaged Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) exercise for each of the 272 National Assembly constituencies. A sample of 9,160 polling stations across the 272 constituencies was drawn to provide estimates of votes polled by individual candidates in each NA constituency. The sample was worked out for each constituency using the detailed draft polling scheme of individual constituencies. The sampling steps are summarized below.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

The sample for each constituency was drawn with the aim of achieving a standard error of 0.6 to 0.8% at 95% confidence level. The estimated coverage of voters was determined to help achieve the specified standard error.

The number of average voters/polling station for each of the constituency was calculated.

The required number of polling stations was determined and selected randomly.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I vi

The PVT estimates were calculated for 264 of the 272 National Assembly constituencies. The eight constituencies not covered were due to the following reasons.

1. Constituencies–NAs 38, 83 and 254–where elections were not held as part of the general election exercise on May 11, 2013 were not observed and hence their respective PVTs as well as trends analysis is not in the purview of this report. The rationale for not including these constituencies in the trends analysis rests in the fact that the dynamics of general elections vis-à-vis by-elections significantly varies and hence a report on general elections does not warrant the inclusion of these constituencies.

2. Given the incomplete data of both, Form XVII and official gazette, constituencies–NAs 46, 103 and 237–that did not have their gazette results available were not analyzed in this report. The availability of the gazette as a primary factor is critical in that Form XVII–the unofficial result form–did not mention the number of rejected votes. Furthermore, the results of the aforementioned constituencies were disputed and not published in gazette results sighting reasons that could potentially lead to changing of party positions and hence leaving the analysis exercise redundant. For instance, NA-237's results were withheld pending adjudication by the Supreme Court, while the results of NAs 46 and 103 were not published following the ECP's orders; for re-polling at 21 polling stations in the former's and complete recount in the latter's case.

3. While the above-mentioned constituencies were not included in this report, there were other constituencies, namely NA-240 and NA-250, where general trends analysis has been done. However, the PVT estimates for these constituencies are not included in the report owing to lack of reasonable levels of data to conduct the exercise.

Against the planned sample, the election-day observers were able to collect voting data of 8,495 polling stations--1,963 male, 1,797 female, and 4,735 combined polling stations. The sample accounted for a total of 10,523,594 voters--2,651,551 in male polling stations, 1,985,444 in female polling stations and 5,886,599 in combined polling stations. The sample was drawn from the preliminary polling scheme data of the ECP that enumerated a total of 69,895 polling stations catering to 85,943,308 voters.

READING PVT FINDINGSThe following information will help understand the constituency-wise result analysis based on PVT data. Each constituency page includes information about the comparison of PVT estimate and the ECP result, and turnout and candidate wise breakup of polled votes in the sampled polling stations.

Statistical Equivalence

PVT vote percentages are estimates from a sample and hence subject to sampling error. The error is affected by:

a. The size of the sample—the more the sample size, the lessor the error

b. The level of variance—the more the variance in the votes polled for individual candidate across polling stations, the higher the margin of error of that candidate's vote estimates.

c. The more the number of nominal categories for which the dependent variable is measured the more the error. For instance, the estimates of votes polled for two candidates are more likely to yield lower margins of error for individual candidate's estimates than their respective estimates in case of more candidates.

Cumulatively, the above are factored in to measure the degree of uncertainty about the calculated

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I vii

estimates and expressed as Margin of Sampling Error. The Margin of Sampling Error establishes the upper and lower bound for an estimate's variation in case of resampling of the same universe and observation of the same variable.

Given the above observations, the PVT estimates compared with the ECP's data of votes polled for each candidate must be read cognizant of the lower and upper bound of the PVT candidates' ratio. In other words, if a candidate's votes as declared by the ECP are within the lower and upper boundaries, the results are “EQUIVALENT”.

However, if the ECP estimates are outside the upper and lower most estimated percentages, it is statistically improbable–the more the difference the more improbable–that the ECP data and the PVT sample represent the same universe/population. The implication being that either a few non-sampled polling stations had highly anomalous and skewed voting pattern compared to the other polling stations in the constituency or that the difference is not a matter of chance and is instead a case of design–in other words, tampering of the results.

43.6

26.6

20.8

55.4

34.5

21.5

49.2

15.9

42.9

18.4

10.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

PML-N

PTI

PPPP

PVT Estimate and Election Commission Result, NA-49

Pakistan National Assembly Election 2013

Reading PVT (Fig 9)

NOTE: Margins of Sampling Error are DIFFERENT of each candidate ineach constituency and must not be compared between candidates.

ME depends not only on sample size but also votevariation for that particular candidate!

NOTE: Only data for top three candidates are presented in the chart.

Margin of Sampling Errorfor First Runner Up

PVT Estimated Vote Percentage for Winning Candidate

Margin ofSamplingError (halfof CI) forWinningCandidate

95% CONFIDENCEINTERVAL (CI) forWinning Candidate

26.5

PVT Estimate ECP Results

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I viii

Population and Sample: Registered Voters (Fig 10)

Population and Sample: Distribution of Polling Stations (Fig 11)

Categorization of Form XIV

Comparative Turnout by Type of Polling Stations (Fig 12)

Election Day Observations at a Glance

Figure 10 lays out the universe–all registered voters in the constituency as per the preliminary polling scheme–and the number of voters covered by the PVT sample for the constituency.

Figure 11 provides the information on the distribution of voters by type of polling station–as per the preliminary polling scheme used as the sampling frame–and the number of polling station by type in the sample for which the data is analyzed.

Categorization of the received data–Form XIV, the forms on which polling station's results are compiled–provides information on the quality of data received and used for the PVT.

Ÿ Category A refers to Form XIVs received from the polling stations on the day of elections that are signed and stamped, are legible and have all the information properly documented.

Ÿ Category B refers to legible forms collected on the election-day that do not have the polling official's signature or stamp or all the information.

Ÿ Category C forms are those collected from the polling station on election-day that may not have the polling official's signature and/or stamp and/or have some over writing and/or not legible.

Ÿ Category D forms are the ones collected from the Returning Officer's secretariat on or after the election-day or have the results compiled by FAFEN's election-day observers on prescribed forms issued to them. Such forms have been mostly employed to verify data of the first three categories and for accounting for the data of polling stations for which the data could not be collected from the polling station on the day of the election.

Comparative turnout by type of polling station in the constituency has two components. The turnout numbers are exact calculation of the votes polled in the observed polling stations type. The overall estimate of the turnout in the constituency, however, is an estimated turnout with the margin of error duly calculated and mentioned. The reason for not calculating estimated turnout for all polling stations by individual type is rested in the in-adequacy of the sample size to account for inferred turnouts for the polling station types at the constituency level. The number of polling station by type, however are sufficient to draw estimates for the polling station type at the provincial/regional level.

The table titled “election-day observations at a glance”, accounts for a summarized observation of the sampled polling stations and polling booths observed by static and mobile observer in the constituency. The numbers of irregularities observed in each constituency in this report is aimed to contextualize the findings and analysis of the election results. The detailed report on election-day process observation is being compiled and published separately.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g

FATAAbout FATA

FATA is home to an estimated 2.3% of the national population and 2% of the registered voters. The region given its strong tribal structure has the worst male-female ratio–65.8% to 34.2%--the most severe among the federation's regions.

The region has 12 (4.4%) National Assembly constituencies assigned–almost twice its proportionate national share of population. Of these 12, all but one constituency–NA-38–had general elections held. A key factor distinguishing the 2013 elections from the previous ones is the extension of Political Parties Act through a Presidential decree prior to the elections allowing political parties to operate and contest from the region for the first time.

While all except one constituency of Balochistan are categorized as predominantly rural, all the 12 constituencies of FATA fall in this category. Elections were held in all but one constituency–NA-38 and one constituency's–NA-46–results were delayed pending re-election on select polling stations. A total of 292 candidates contested from the 10 constituencies covered in this report. Of these, 218 were independents while the rest represented parties. Among those, PML-N, PTI and JUI had fielded candidates from all of the ten constituencies, JI from 9 while 35 others contested from smaller parties.

Estimated Population

Reg. Voters (Form XVII)

Reg. Voters (Final Polling Scheme)

Male Voters *

Female Voters *

NA Constituencies

Constituencies Analyzed

*

*

*

*

4,296,194

1,478,947

1,479,327

1,146,542

596,993

12 (NA-36 to NA-47)

10

* The numbers do not account for NA-38 and NA-46.** The figures are calculated from the Constituency Summary Sheet released days before election,

available at http://ecp.gov.pk/PollingStationsStatistics.aspx, accessed September 10, 2013.

FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 151

Turnout Trends

a. Votes Polled: 2002 to 2013

Like most other regions, FATA also witnessed an overall increase in polled votes since 2002. Almost 0.33 million votes were polled in FATA in general election 2002 which increased to approximately 0.4 million in 2008 and 0.55 million in 2013.

b. Average Turnout by Demographic Category

T u r n o u t i n p r e d o m i n a n t l y r u r a l constituencies of FATA remained equal to the overall turnout of the region because all cons t i tuenc ie s a re ca tegor i zed a s predominantly rural. The turnout remained around 26% in 2002, increased to 28% in 2008 and further improved to 32% in 2013.

c. Distribution of Constituencies by Turnout and Demographic Categories

Of the 10 constituencies for which the gazette result was published, four had less than 35% turnout while in the other four it was in the range of 35 to 45%. One constituency witnessed a turnout in the range 45.1 to 55% while another in the range of 55.1 to 65%.

d. Estimated Turnout by Types of Polling Stations: PVT Estimates

In 2013, male polling stations recorded the highest turnout of 41.5% followed by combined polling stations with 35.8%. Female polling stations had significantly lower estimated turnout of around 28.2%. Overall turnout estimated for the region was 36.1% compared to the ECP's calculated 37.2% for the ten constituencies. The figures bring into focus the persistent issue of female under-participation as well as the need to tailor the polling scheme to help ensure better female turnout. Given that the gender desegregated data of the votes polled is not available for the combined polling stations, there is a need to record and examine the best course for improving female participation.

Figure 3: Distribution of Constituencies by Turnoutand Demographic Categories

Figure 2: Average Turnout by Demographic Category: 2002 to 2013

Figure 1: Votes Polled 2002 to 2013

Figure 4: Estimated Turnout by Types of Polling Stations: PVT Estimates

327,217

397,593

550,560

2002 2008 2013

25.5%

28.2%

31.6%

25.5%

28.2%

31.6%

2002 2008 2013

Predominantly Rural Region's Turnout

4

1

1

35 to 45%

45.1 to 55%

55.1 to 65%

4 Less than 35%

Predominantly Rural

41.5%

28.2%

35.8% 36.1% 37.2%

Male ±0.44% Female ±0.64% Combined ±0.27% Overall ±0.22% ECP Overall

FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 153

Figure 5: Constituencies by Turnout Change and DemographicCategories: Average of 2002 and 2008 Vs. 2013

Figure 6: Rejected Votes: 2002 to 2013

e. Constituencies by Turnout Change and Demographic Categories: Average of 2002 and 2008 Vs. 2013

Four constituencies of FATA witnessed 5.1 to 10% increase in their turnouts in 2013 vis-à-vis their average turnouts of 2002 and 2008–three witnessed a rise between 10.1 to 15% and one each saw an improvement of 15.1 to 20% and 0.1 to 5% in their turnouts.

In contrast to the general regional and national trend, NA-42, witnessed a significant decrease of 10.1 to 15% in its turnout in 2013 vis-à-vis the 2002 and 2008 average turnout of 25%.

A total of 6,211 votes were rejected in the region in 2002 which decreased to 4,528 votes in 2008. However, with a massive increase of more than 200% in 2013, rejected votes reached 13,694. Rejected votes accounted for almost 2% of the polled votes in 2002, 1% in 2008 and nearly 2.5% in 2013.

The potential impact of rejected votes can be ascertained from the fact that of the ten constituencies of the region covered in this report, three had lower margin of victory compared to the number of rejected votes in the 2013 elections.

a. 2013 Results

The political parties were not authorized to operate in FATA prior to the 2013 elections. This explains why independent candidates remained exclusive claimants of votes—a trend that has carried over into the 2013 elections. Not surprisingly then, the independent candidates won from six out of 10 NA seats of the region. PML-N secured victory from two seats while PTI and JUI won from one constituency each from within the remaining NA constituency.

Rejected Votes: 2002 to 2013

Party Trends

Figure 7: 2013 Results: Seats Won by Parties

Predominantly Rural

6,211

4,528

13,694

2002 2008 2013

1

3

1

(10.1 to

1

0.1 to 5% 10.1 to15%

15.1 to20%

4

5.1 to 10%15%)

FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 155

Figure 8: Leading Parties by Votes Polled

b. Winners' Status

Independent candidates emerged victorious in six NA constituencies for third consecutive time in 2013 while PML-N took two seats for the first time. JUI and PTI also won from one NA constituency each in the region for the first time.

c. Party Votes Share

Independent candidates emerged with 60% share of polled votes in 2013 followed by PTI and JUI as second and third largest parties claiming almost 10% and 9% votes. Besides, PML-N and JI also took 7% and 6.4% of the polled votes respectively.

329,850

51,832 48,881 37,475 34,252 34,576

IND PTI JUI PML-N JI Others

156 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-36 TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY

Jar

NalDab

Had

Kot

Jau

Mena

Siai Mora

Agra

Ulai

Gunu

Kuai

KungVole

Dand

Ugda

ShiniManro

DheriMatta

JowarKuhai

TangiMitai Hangu

Matin

TarasOghuzBobak

Serai

Dabar

Khwar

UriyaKawal

DarraJaiba

Serai

Nasir

Kasai Laman

Bucha

Maira

Matin

Malika

Rambat

Kajira

KharaiKangra

Retara

SangarJarobiKhatin

Dargai

KurinaBaezai

Baezal Ghulam

KawaroMaizarNaghar

Gandab

Gandao

ZankaiRaghzi

Khatki

AnargaiTarghao Khanori

Mamozai GhundaiKhanjar

Mohmand

Tarakai

Ramalai

Sappare

Dab KorKarerai

Sar Lara

Uri Mena

Baba Jor

Bedmanai

Aman Kot

Shamshah Mazarina

Khwaezai

Halimzai

Jale Sar

Reg MenaGurgurai

Tarakzai

Kamangara

Balo Mena

Alam KhelUmar Khel

Atam-Kili

Mahar Dab

Jang KiliHasar Nao

Dand NawarSilala Sar

Tazi Kabar

Ogad Manja

Nana Khwar

Sira Tigga Sapari Sar

KarghajalaPrang Dara

Tango Kili

Haidar Khan

Shahdanai Sar

Chombi Kandao

Mamanai Gudar

Ahinpokh Kandao

Ghare Kamar Sar

Haidar Khan Nao

Laman Utman Khel

Tringai Ghakhai Kandao

NA-36

NA - 8

NA - 44

NA - 35

NA - 45NA - 7

NA - 43

NA - 3

NA - 10

NA - 34NA - 36

NA - 34

NA - 45

NA - 44

NA - 5

NA - 35

NA - 8NA - 7

NA - 46

NA - 43

NA - 3

NA - 4

1 inch = 78.91 miles

ituated in FATA, Mohmand Agency is inhabited by the Mohmand, 1Dawizai, Baizai, Khwazai and Halimzai tribes . The agency is linked Swith Bajaur Agency to its north, Malakand to its east and Khyber

Agency to its west. Tribal affiliation, clans and extended kinship play 2a crucial role in determining voting preferences .

Figure 2: Registered Voters by Gender 2008-13

Figure 1: Number of Registered Voters 2002 to 2013

108,081 126,007

179,304

2002 2008 2013

79.7%66.5%

20.3%

33.5%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters

Registered Voters: Polling Scheme

Registered Voters: Form-XVII

Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

179,249

179,304

53,617

470

54,087

30.2%

Winner's Status: IND (3rd Consecutive Win)

Overall Rank by Turnout

Turnout Rank in the Region

Change in Turnout: 2013 Vs. Avg. of 2002-08

Rank by Increase in Turnout

262

8

9.4%

182

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 126,007 registered voters - 16.6% more than 108,081 voters registered in 2002. In 2013, the number of registered voters jumped to 179,304, showing an increase of another 42.3%.

Voters by Gender

Even though both male and female voters increased between 2008 and 2013, the rise in female voters was significantly higher. In 2008, the constituency had 79.7% male and 20.3% female voters. In 2013, the share of male voters decreased to 66.5%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 33.5%. Nevertheless, the gender disparity still remains high, with male voters being twice as many as female voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.372 Ibid

TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY NA-36FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 157


Figure 3: Party Share of Votes in 2013 Elections

Figure 5: Comparative Turnout 2002 to 2013

23.1%18.5%

30.2%

2002 2008 2013

24,989 23,263

54,087

2002 2008 2013

JI 10.4%

JUI 8.6%

Others 27.7%

PML-N 7.4%

Rejected Votes 0.9%

IND-1 16.6%

IND-2 8.6%

IND-3 8.3%

IND-4 6.3% IND-5

5.1%

2013 Election Results

Turnout Analysis

The 2013 saw the participation of political parties in the election for the first time in FATA following the extension of Political Parties Act to the region. The seat, however, was won by Bilal Rehman, an independent candidate who secured 16.6% of the polled votes and defeated 39 other contestants. JI was the runner-up with 10.4% votes, while Nisar Ahmad, another independent candidate, stood third with 8.6% votes. The JUI also received 8.6% votes, while other contestants received 27.7% of the polled votes collectively. Only 0.9% votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

In 2002, a total of 24,989 votes were polled in the constituency, which dropped to 23,263 in 2008 despite an increase in the number of registered voters. In 2013 the number of polled votes more than doubled to 54,087 outdoing the increase in the number of registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-36 showed a sharp increase in voter turnout in 2013. According to the ECP's results, the constituency saw a turnout of 23.1% in 2002 and 18.5% in 2008 - averaging out at 20.8%. However, with 54,087 votes polled, the turnout increased to 30.2% in 2013 - 11.7% more than the turnout in 2008. This notable increase in voter turnout may due to a number of factors, such as the participation of political parties, a subsequent increase in number of contenders and increase in the number of registered voters.

158 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-36

Figure 6: Vote Consolidation/Fragmentation Patterns 2002 to 2013

Figure 7: Comparative Margin of Victory & Rejected Votes 2002 to 2013

65.5%

22.7%

16.6%

15.7%

18.2%

10.4%

6.9%

15.0%8.6%

2002 2008 2013

Winner Runner-up Third

12,436

1,041 3,353

341

390 470

2002 2008 2013

Margin of Victory Rejected Votes

Voting Pattern

The voting pattern shows increasing fragmentation of votes between 2002 and 2013. In 2002, the election was defined by a single candidate who secured 65.5% of the polled votes while the next two contestants received only 15.7% and 6.9% respectively. In 2008, however, there was a close competition between several candidates, with the first three candidates receiving 55.6% of the polled votes collectively. In 2013, the division of votes increased even further, with the top three contestants receiving only 35.6% of the polled votes. This voting behaviour indicates that the next polls may also witness a close competition. It also indicates that an alliance between two or more candidates may decrease the division of votes and influence the results in their favour.

Margin of Victory

In 2002, the winner's margin was considerably higher than the number of rejected votes. In 2008, however, there was a strong competition between the candidates, resulting in the margin of victory to drop sharply. Nevertheless, the number of rejected votes was insignificant to affect the results. The 2013 elections showed a clear victory once again, with the winner securing the seat with a significant margin.

TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY NA-36FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 159

Figure 8: Parallel Vote Tabulation


7 0

8

Category-A Category-B

Category-C 14Category-D

16.6

10.4

8.6

21.1

17.8

18.6

15.9

13.0

11.6

10.7

8.2

4.5

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0

BilalRehman

JI

NisarAhmad


Categories of Received Form XIV

Figure 11: Comparative Turnoutby Type of Polling Stations

41.5%

17.8%25.7%

29.4% 30.2%

Male Female Combined PVTProjected

Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout

Figure 9: Distribution of Registered Voters

Figure 10: Distribution ofPolling Station by Type

68,557

35,568

75,153

15,867 9,890

20,454

Male Female Combined

Polling Scheme PVT Sample

43

28

36

118 10



ViolationsReportedObservation of Voting Process

Voters with any other form of identification are permitted to vote

Voters who have no ID are permitted to vote

Polling Officer is not checking the back of each voter's thumb for indelible ink

APO is not requiring each voter to put a thumbprint on the NA ballot counterfoil

APO is not putting official stamp and signing on the back of each NA ballot

APO is not filling out each NA ballot counterfoil with the voter's CNIC and details

APO is not putting an official stamp and signing each NA ballot counterfoil

Polling Officials are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Polling agents/ Candidates are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Security Officials is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Other personal is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters

Government Officials is trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party

Polling Officials are trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party

Any people with weapons are in the polling booth

Capture of polling station by one party/candidate

Polling Station closes before 5:00 pm

Polling officials didn’t check the stamp and signature on the back of each NA ballot

Polling officials didn’t count two times the NA ballots in each candidate pile

Polling officials didn’t call out loudly if they find a ballot without stamp/signature

Polling officials didn’t put ballots without a stamp/signature in the Invalid pile

Polling officials did not create one pile for “invalid” NA ballots

Polling officials did not fill out the "NA Ballot Account Form”

Not all polling agents sign the NA "Statement of the Count”

Polling officials did not carefully pack all NA materials in separate envelopes

Presiding Officer did not sign NA "Tamper Evident Bag”

Polling officials did not post copy of "Statement of the Count" outside the PS

Ballot Stuffing, Polling Station Capture and Voter Intimidation

Observation of Counting Process

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6

1

3

1

1

2

1

1

0

0

0

2

160 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-37 TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY

Kas

Kas

NariGidoTeri

Tola

MelaTuri

Piak

Dhal

AgraZira

Said

Turi

KotriWasai

ZeranRagha

KardaBurki

Bazar

Bassu

Totak ShakhTwazeTaida

SatinSadda

Kuchi

Tangi

Munda

Pingo

Sadin

Ut Sar

KhewasMaikaiCherai

Mangal Khanai Kanake

DhandiNurkai

MansurBughdi

Sarkot

Muqbil Gidara

SultanKotkai

AlizaiYakubi

BostanWarsak

Shashi

Mingak

Bagzai

JalmaiLargin

Tor Sar

Ad Mela

Bughara

Mamuzai

Karshya

BissatuDarwaza

Kharpat

Hidu Ut

Maidani

Toi MelaKharwala

Ana Mela

Haqdarra

Tut Pail

Dam Mela

Jabe Mela

Chamkanni

Uchadarra

Sang Ghar

Walli Sar

Nareg Sar

Pore Kanda

Sraghurgai

Katwai Sar

Spin KanreInzar Ghar

Jawara Mela

Swaro Gawai

Makhal Ghar

Charmu Ghar Ghurio Tang

Gwazo Priti

Valay-China

Dargai China

Guluchat SarInzar Kandao

Ublan Tangai

Ghwanda Cheral

AF name unknown

Shah Hussaino Kandao

NA - 38

NA - 46

NA - 39

NA - 16

NA-37

NA - 37

NA - 38

NA - 40

NA - 16

NA - 46


nhabited mostly by the Turi, Bangash, Para Chamkani, Ali Sherzai, Paracha, Massuzai, Wattizai, Zadran, Ghilzai, Mangal, Kharoti, Hazara and Khushi Itribes, Kurram Agency links the country with neighbouring

1Afghanistan . Traditionally, sectarian affiliations have played an important role in soliciting votes. However, ethnic and tribal

2affiliations also determine voting preferences .



138,559 141,190

162,660

2002 2008 2013

55.5% 59.1%

44.5% 40.9%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

162,621

162,660

91,805

3,255

95,060

58.4%






119

1

12.4%

139

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 141,190 registered voters - nearly 2% more than the 138,559 voters registered in 2002. In 2013, the registered voters jumped to 162,660, showing an increase of another 15.2%.

Voters by Gender

Though both male and female voters increased between 2008 and 2013, the increase in male voters was significantly higher, resulting in a higher gender disparity in 2013. In 2008, the constituency had 55.5% male and 44.5% female voters. In 2013, the share of male voters increased to 59.1%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 40.9% of the registered voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.402 Ibid

TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY NA-37FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 161




30.3%

61.8% 58.4%

2002 2008 2013

42,032

87,296 95,060

2002 2008 2013

MDM 5.3%

Others 3.1%

Rejected Votes 3.4%

IND-1 31.2%

IND-2 30.6%

IND-3 20.6%

IND-4 5.8%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 31 parties/candidates contesting the polls, Sajid Hussain Turi, an independent candidate, emerged victorious with 31.2% of the polled votes. Turi was closely followed by Syed Qaiser Hussain, another independent candidate who secured 30.6% votes, while two other candidates – Syed Iqbal Mian and Haji Hashim Khan – received 20.6% and 5.8% of the polled votes respectively. In addition, the MDM received 5.3% votes, followed by other contenders who collectively received 3.1% votes. Moreover, another 3.4% of the polled votes were declared invalid.

a. Votes Polled

Despite a nominal increase in the number of registered voters, the number of polled votes increased two-fold between 2002 and 2008. In 2013, however, the increase in polled votes (9%) was proportionately lower compared to the increase in registered voters (15.2%).

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-37 showed a sharp increase in voter turnout between 2002 and 2008. According to the ECP's result, the constituency saw a turnout of 30.3% in 2002 and 61.8% in 2008, averaging out at 46.1%. In 2013, however, the turnout decreased slightly to 58.4%. Nevertheless, it was still higher than the average turnout of the previous two elections.

162 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-37



50.1%

30.1% 31.2%

20.5%

23.2%

30.6%

13.9%

23.2% 20.6%

2002 2008 2013


12,451

5,494

526 711 206

3,255

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The vote bank in NA-37 has been largely divided between three candidates. In 2002, the polls were dominated by a single candidate – his share exceeding the combined shares of the first and second runners-up. In 2008, however, the polls were marked by a strong competition between three candidates who collectively received a share of 77.1% in polled votes. The 2013 election presented a similar pattern. However, the race was primarily between the top two candidates, with the second runner-up following behind a considerable margin. Nevertheless, the first three contestants managed to secure 83% of the polled voted. The voting pattern indicates that the vote bank is divided among three candidates. In addition, the close competition in 2008 and 2013 suggests that an alliance between the runners-up can decrease the fragmentation of votes and drive the results in their favour in the next election.

Margin of Victory

The margin of victory in NA-37 has fallen consistently over time due to fragmentation of votes. In 2002, the winner's margin was many times higher than the number of rejected votes. The 2008 elections showed similar results. In 2013, however, the rejected votes increased sharply. At the same time; there was a close competition between the contestants, resulting in the rejected votes to exceed the winning margin. The notable increase in the number of rejected votes, combined with the close contest, highlights the need for a transparent result compilation system by the ECP to avoid controversies which affect the spirit of free and fair elections.

TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY NA-37FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 163




0 0

0



31.2

30.6

20.6

42.9

41.1

33.2

34.7

32.7

25.0

26.5

24.3

16.8

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

SajidHussain

Turi

SayedQaisar

SyedIqbalMian



60.3% 64.5% 71.8% 66.0% 58.4%


Turnout ± 0.5%

ECPTurnout



54,680

39,108

68,833

11,399 5,086

12,033



42 42

56

7 610
































0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

164 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-39 TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY

Nur

Garh

TariBaza

Tslo

Tabi

ArkhiKandi

Narik

SarkaKasha

TalaiAkhel

InzarNakai KatsaJirab

Dukai

MishtiKharki

Mosone

Sortop

Mamanai

KarappaAli Khel

Ibrahimo

Ghundakai

Samana Suk

Zako Ghakhai

Lalbaz Gareh

NA - 46

NA-39

NA - 14

NA - 16

NA - 38

NA - 45

NA - 47

NA - 2

NA - 4

NA - 15

NA - 46

NA - 14NA - 16

NA - 39NA - 38

NA - 45

NA - 47

NA - 4

NA - 47

NA - 36

NA - 37

NA - 37


nhabited mostly by Ali Khel, Mullah Khel, Roha Khel, Meshki, Shekhan, Feroz Khel, Isa Khel, Ali Sherzai, Bar Muhamad Khel, Spai and Buland Khel tribes, INA-39 represents Orakzai Agency – the only agency in FATA

1which does not share a border with Afghanistan . Administratively, the agency is divided into Upper Orakzai, Lower Orakzai, Central

2Orakzai and Ismail Khel tehsils . The constituency is a Sunni dominated area where the influence of tribal elders plays an

3important role in determining voting preferences .

Figure 2: Registered Voters by Gender 2008-13Figure 1: Number of Registered Voters 2002 to 2013

97,620

123,335 125,687

2002 2008 2013

71.8%60.5%

28.2%39.5%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

125,687

125,687

44,662

3,773

48,435

38.5%






250

6

3.9%

248

Registered Voters

Like other parts of the region, NA-39 has witnessed a continuous increase in the number of registered voters over the years. In 2008, the constituency had 123,335 voters - 26.3% more than the 97,620 voters in 2002. In 2013, the number of registered voters increased another 1.9% to 125,687.

Voters by Gender

The 2013 elections saw a drop in the number of male voters. At the same time, the number of female voters witnessed a considerable increase, resulting in a significant reduction in the gender gap. In 2008, there were roughly seven male voters for every three female voters in the region. In 2013, however, the ratio was approximately six male voters to every four female voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.412 Ibid3 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Tarakki Aur Siasat P.42

TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY NA-39FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 165




29.2%

40.1% 38.5%

2002 2008 2013

28,511

49,507 48,435

2002 2008 2013

ANP 5.6%

JUI 8.6%

Others 12.6%

PPPP 16.0%

PTI 7.9%

Rejected Votes 7.8%

IND-1 16.4%

IND-2 10.7% IND-3

7.5%

IND-4 7.0%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 36 parties/candidates contesting the polls, Syed Ghazi Gulab Jamal, an independent candidate who had also won the polls in 2002, emerged victorious with 16.4% votes. The PPPP followed closely with 16% votes, while Syed Noor Akbar, another independent candidate, managed to receive 10.7% of the polled votes. In addition, the JUI and PTI received 8.6% and 7.9% votes respectively. Other contenders collectively received 12.6% votes, while 7.8% of the polled votes were declared invalid.

a. Votes Polled

In 2008, the constituency saw a 73.6% increase (from 28,511 to 49,507) in the number of polled votes when the number of registered voters increased almost 26%. In 2013, however, the number of polled votes fell by 2.2% (from 49,507 to 48,435) despite a slight increase in the number of registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-39 showed a sharp increase in the voter turnout between 2002 and 2008. According to the ECP's result, the constituency saw a turnout of 29.2% in 2002 and 40.1% in 2008 - averaging out at 34.7%. In 2013, however, the turnout decreased slightly to 38.5%. Nevertheless, it was 3.8% higher than the average turnout of 2002 and 2008 election.

166 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-39



39.2%

44.1%

16.4%

28.1%

16.7%

16.0%21.9%

11.3% 10.7%

2002 2008 2013


3,180

13,597

196 335

381

3,773

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The voting pattern has shown a varying trend, with the vote bank consolidating in 2008 and dividing in 2013. In 2002, the vote bank was divided among three candidates who collectively secured 89.2% votes with each candidate outnumbering the other with a considerable margin. In 2008, the polls were defined by a single candidate, whose share exceeded the combined share of the next two candidates. The 2013 election, however, saw a division of votes between several parties/candidates. According to the results, the winner secured the seat with only 16.4% of the polled votes in a close contest. This voting pattern suggests that voters in NA-39 have the tendency to produce unpredictable results. Given the inconsistent pattern, it is hard to predict how the vote will swing in future elections.

Margin of Victory

The margin of victory has shown a varying trend – increasing sharply in 2008 and falling again in 2013. In 2002, the winning margin was nearly 10 times higher than the number of rejected votes. The 2008 elections also showed a clear victory, with rejected votes being only a mere fraction of the winning margin. In 2013, however, the number of rejected votes increased significantly. At the same time, the winning margin fell sharply due to a fragmented vote bank. As a result, the number of rejected votes was nearly 20 times higher than the margin of victory. The close nature of results, coupled with a sudden increase in the number of rejected votes, necessitates the need for a transparent and accountable result compilation system to foreclose any potential for controversies and rumors which undermine the image of free and fair elections.

TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY NA-39FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 167




4 0

13



16.0

16.4

10.7

29.6

28.1

19.9

20.1

17.7

12.4

10.5

7.4

5.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

PPPP

SyedGhaziGulabJamal

SyedNoorAkbar



0.0% 0.0%

37.9% 37.9% 38.5%


Turnout ± 0.6%

ECPTurnout



54,680

39,108

68,833

11,399 5,086

12,033



42 42

56

7 610
































4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

4

0

1

0

6

2

6

3

0

1

1

0

4

168 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-40 TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY

JimSetInamZund

DingIlat

Sola

Trai Kama

LagarYagai

Kirra

Danai

GarhiLalat

Wazir

Nawal

Larima

Plewan

Tortop

Sirtop

Wuchai

Chakai

Ghwora

Khojai

SarkaiShangi

Ukh Oba

Drenomi

Spinkai

Torghot

Torakai

SpirkaiKagheba

Melogai

Mir Ali

Nawidand

Dreplare

Bangidar

Sur Narai

KhandizaiShna Lara

Shekhalai

Tori Khel

Shanderai

Stara Zawa

Gora Kachay

Shezak Algad

Margha Narai

Gora Tsappara

Kharaghora Range

Pereval Besharay-Naray

NA-40

NA - 27

NA - 42

NA - 26

NA - 47

NA - 47

NA - 41

NA - 25

NA - 38

NA - 16

NA - 15NA - 40

NA - 41 NA - 25

NA - 27NA - 42

NA - 38

NA - 47

NA - 37

NA - 26

NA - 16

NA - 47

NA - 264


ome to the Dawar and Wazir tribes, North Waziristan Agency is situated adjacent to South Waziristan, Hangu and HAfghanistan. The area is also inhabited by Mehsud, Suleman Khel

and Barqi tribes, with a majority of population belonging to the Sunni community. Religious political parties especially JUI have electoral support in the area.



96,448

126,481

160,666

2002 2008 2013

85.4% 92.7%

14.6%7.3%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

160,666

160,666

77,132

938

78,070

48.6%






213

2

19.7%

27

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 126,481 registered voters - 31.1% more than the 96,448 voters in 2002. In 2013, the number of registered voters jumped to 160,666, showing an increase of another 27%.

Voters by Gender

North Waziristan Agency has shown a stark gender gap in registered voters. In 2008, the constituency had 85.4% male and only 14.6% female voters – showing a difference of 70.8%. In 2013, the proportion of female voters decreased even further. According to the polling scheme, male voters accounted for 92.7% of the voters, while female voters made up the remaining 7.3% - nearly half of what they accounted for in 2008.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.442 Ibid3 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.45

TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-40FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 169




30.0% 27.9%

48.6%

2002 2008 2013

28,889 35,229

78,070

2002 2008 2013

JUI 15.7%

Others 18.8%

PTI 10.6%

Rejected Votes 1.2% IND-1

23.1%

IND-2 18.9% IND-3

6.2% IND-4 5.4%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 34 parties/candidates contesting the polls, Muhammad Nazir Khan, an independent candidate, won the seat with 23.1% of the polled votes. Aurangzeb Khan, another independent candidate, was the runner-up with 18.9% votes, while JUI followed with 15.7% votes. In addition PTI managed to receive 10.6% votes. Other candidates collectively received a share of 18.8%, while 1.2% of the polled votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

Along with the number of registered voters, the polled votes in NA-40 have increased constantly over the years. In 2008, the constituency saw a 22% increase (from 28,889 to 35,229) when the number of registered voters increased by 31%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped two-fold (from 35,229 to 78,070) against a 27% increase in the number of registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-40 witnessed a significant increase in voter turnout in 2013. According to the ECP's results, the constituency saw a turnout of 30% in 2002 and 27.9% in 2008 - averaging out at 28.9%. However, with 78,070 votes polled, the turnout increased to 48.6% in 2013 – 20.7% more than the turnout in 2008.

170 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-40



51.1%

16.7%

23.1%

18.9% 15.4% 18.9%

8.8%

14.8%15.7%

2002 2008 2013


9,309

453

3,261

289

591 938

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The voting pattern shows a shift from a single candidate's dominance to a division of votes between various contestants. In 2002, the winner secured the seat with an overwhelming majority, outnumbering the collective votes of the next two contestants with a significant margin. In 2008, however, the constituency witnessed a split in the vote bank. The results showed a sharp decline in the winner's share that resulted in a close competition between three candidates and the winner securing the seat with a margin of only 1.3% votes. The 2013 elections showed a similar pattern. However, the race wasn't as close as 2008. Nevertheless, the shift in voting behaviour shows a fragmentation of the vote bank. The close contest in 2008 and 2013 also suggests that an alliance between two or more contenders can decrease the fragmentation of votes and influence the results in the next election.

Margin of Victory

While the number of rejected votes has increased steadily, the margin of victory has varied – falling sharply in 2008 and increasing again in 2013. In 2002, the seat was won with a significant margin, with the number of rejected votes being a mere fraction of the winning margin. In 2008, there was a close competition between the top two candidates, resulting in the number of rejected votes to outnumber the winning margin. The margin of victory increased once again in 2013 – showing a considerable difference with the number of rejected votes.

TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-40FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 171




0 0

0



23.1

18.9

15.7

32.5

27.2

12.9

19.4

17.4

9.5

6.3

7.6

6.1

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

NazirKhan

AurangzebKhan

JUI



48.0%

0.0%

40.0% 42.8% 48.6%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout



68,516

7,965

84,275

15,314 -

28,190



27

3

35

6

0

12
































0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

172 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-41 TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY

Zao

Drazanda

Karira NaraiKarkana Algad

Khoranne Nala

Spin Tangi Narai

NA-41

NA - 25

NA - 42

NA - 264

NA - 47

NA - 40

NA - 47NA - 264

NA - 25NA - 41

NA - 40

NA - 42

NA - 47

NA - 47

NA - 263


ordering Zhob, DI Khan, North Waziristan and Afghanistan, NA-41 is a strategically important constituency due to its

1Bgeographic location . The majority of the population belongs 2to the Mehsud, Wazir, Suleman Khel and Dotani tribes . While JUI is

considered the most influential political party, the Maliks (local tribal 3chiefs) are also believed to be an important political force in the area .



86,598

94,077 92,719

2002 2008 2013

68.2% 70.8%

31.8% 29.2%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

92,713

92,719

37,461

706

38,167

41.2%

Winner's Status: PML-N (1st Win)





242

3

8.6%

193

Registered Voters

Unlike other parts of the tribal areas, NA-41 witnessed a slight decrease in the number of registered voters in 2013. In 2008, the constituency had a total of 94,077 registered voters - 8.6% more than the 86,598 voters in 2002. In 2013, however, the number of registered voters dropped to 92,719, showing a decrease of 1.9%.

Voters by Gender

The 2013 elections saw a slight increase in the number of male voters. At the same time, female voters decreased in comparative terms, resulting in a wider gender gap compared to the previous polls. In 2008, the constituency had 68.2% male and 31.8% female voters. In 2013, the share of male voters increased to 70.8%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 29.2% of the registered voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.462 Ibid3 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. Pp.46-47

TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-41FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 173




31.2%34.0%

41.2%

2002 2008 2013

27,032 31,979

38,167

2002 2008 2013

JUI 8.0%

Others 13.0%

PML-N 21.0%


20.0%

IND-2 18.2%

IND-3 17.9%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 38 parties/candidates contesting the polls, PML-N won the seat with 21% of the polled votes, making it one of the four constituencies in FATA where independent candidates were defeated. Muhammad Ali, an independent candidate, was the runner-up with 20% votes, while Naseerullah Khan, another independent candidate, followed with 18.2% votes. In addition, independent candidate Jumma Khan received 17.9% votes and JUI managed to get 8% votes. Other contenders collectively received a share of 13%, while 1.8% of the polled votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

The number of polled votes in NA-41 has increased progressively between 2002 and 2013. In 2008, the constituency saw a 18.3% increase (from 27,032 to 31,979) when the number of registered voters increased by 8.6%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped another 19.4% (from 31,979 to 38,167) despite a 2% decrease in registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-41 has shown a continuous increase in voter turnout since 2002. According to the ECP's results, the constituency witnessed a voter turnout of 31.2% in 2002 and 34% in 2008 - averaging out at 32.6%. With 38,167 votes polled, the turnout increased further to 41.2% in 2013 - 7.2% more than the turnout in 2008.

174 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-41



29.6%

24.9%

21.0%25.5% 24.8%

20.0%

9.1%

22.9%

18.2%

2002 2008 2013


1,101

36

381

844

592 706

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The voting pattern shows a shift from a two-party race to a division of votes between various candidates. In 2002, the vote bank was largely divided between two candidates who received a collective share of 55.1% in polled votes. In 2008, however, the constituency saw a division of votes, resulting in a close contest between three candidates who collectively received 72.6% votes. The 2013 elections presented a similar voting pattern, with the top three candidates receiving 59.2% of the polled votes. However, the decrease in their collective share points out that the vote bank in 2013 was divided between more than three candidates. The increasing fragmentation of votes suggests that the next election may witness an even stronger competition between the contestants. Moreover, the close contests indicate that an alliance between any two candidates can drive the results in their favour.

Margin of Victory

In 2002, the winner secured the seat with a margin of 1,101 voters as 844 votes were rejected. In 2008, however, there was a close contest, with only 36 votes separating the winner from the runner-up. The rejected votes, on the other hand, were 16 times higher than the winning margin. The 2013 elections also showed similar results, with the number of rejected votes being significantly higher than the winning margin. The close competition between candidates necessitates the need for a transparent and accountable result compilation system to avoid controversies which tarnish the image of a free and fair election.

TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-41FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 175




0 1

5



21.0

20.0

18.2

31.1

28.8

20.8

22.6

21.4

15.5

14.0

14.0

10.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

PML-N

Muhammad

Ali

NaseerullahKhan



12.7%

0.0%

46.8%38.7% 41.2%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout



12,704 7,280

72,729

9,016 -

29,055



6 4

60

40

22
































3

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

2

2

9

7

1

0

3

2

6

4

1

3

0

1

10

176 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-42 TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY

Swo Ghar

Tabai Sar

Tabai Algad

Wazirki Sar

Metari NaraiGaddo Melo Algad

Stara Nazhmerai Algad

NA-42

NA - 41

NA - 25

NA - 47

NA - 40

NA - 26

NA - 27

NA - 40

NA - 41NA - 25

NA - 264

NA - 42NA - 47

NA - 26

NA - 24

NA - 47

NA - 47

1 inch = 94.7 miles

ome to the Mehsuds, Burki and Qureshi tribes, NA-42 comprises Ladha, Makin, Sararogha and Sarwakai tehsils of South HWaziristan Agency. In addition to religious affiliations, tribal

and ethnic linkages also define the voting preferences of the local 1population .



122,373 129,961

108,056

2002 2008 2013

64.7% 63.6%

35.3% 36.4%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

119,094

108,056

12,649

208

12,857

11.9%

Winner's Status: JUI (1st Win)





266

10

-13.6%

264

Registered Voters

A total of 129,961 voters were registered in the constituency in 2008 - 6.2% more than 122,373 voters in 2002. The number of registered voters witnessed a decrease of 16.9% to 108,056 in 2013.

Voters by Gender

In 2008, 64.7% of the registered voters were male while 35.3% were female. Despite a significant decrease in registered voters, the proportion of male and female voters remained largely unaffected; with male voters accounting for 63.6% of the total voters in 2013 and female voters making up the remaining 36.4%.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.48

TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-42FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 177




25.5%

0.0%

11.9%

2002 2008 2013

31,166

-

12,857

2002 2008 2013

JUI 27.0%

Others 11.9%

PTI 19.1%

Rejected Votes 1.6%

IND-1 23.8%

IND-2 16.6%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 17 parties/candidates contesting the polls, JUI emerged victorious with a share of 27% in polled votes. Independent candidate Qayyum Sher Mehsud received 23.8% of the polled votes, followed by PTI with 19.1% votes. Abdur Rahim Khan, another independent candidate, managed to get 16.6% votes. The remaining 11.9% votes went to other candidates while election officials rejected 1.6% votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

In 2002, as many as 31,166 voters exercised their right to vote in NA-42. The elections were postponed in 2008, while only 12,857 voters came out to vote in 2013.

b. Voter Turnout

The voter turnout decreased from 25.5% in 2002 to 11.9% in 2013. The polls in 2008 were postponed due to law and order situation in the constituency.

Th

e el

ecti

on

s w

ere

post

pon

ed i

n N

A-4

2 i

n 2

00

8 d

ue

to law

an

d o

rder

sit

uat

ion

178 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-42




7,333

-402

694 -

208

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

Like other parts of the region, the voting pattern in NA-42 shows a fragmentation of votes over the years. In 2002, the winner secured nearly 40% of the polled votes, while the next two candidates followed with 16.1% and 14.1% respectively. In 2013, however, the constituency witnessed a close contest, with the winner's share falling sharply to 27% and the shares of runners-up increasing to 23.8% and 19.1% respectively. The results show that the difference in the winner and runner-up's shares decreased from 23.6% in 2002 to only 3.2% in 2013. This shows a significant division of votes, indicating that the next polls may witness a similar voting pattern.

Margin of Victory

The margin of victory in 2002 was significantly higher than the number of rejected votes. The winning margin fell sharply in 2013. Nevertheless, the rejected votes were insignificant to affect the results.

39.7%

27.0%

16.1%

23.8%

14.1%19.1%

2002 2013

TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY NA-42FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 179



27.0

23.8

16.6

31.9

31.5

24.4

26.9

25.5

19.0

21.9

19.5

13.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

JUI

QayyumSher

Mahsud

AbdurRahimKhan



0 4

3




15.2%

4.0%

23.0%

12.6% 11.9%

Male Female CombinedProjected

Turnout ± 0.3%

ECPTurnout

PVT



31

18

13

19

7 6



64,666

36,579

6,811

38,451

14,120

2,239
































1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

4

2

1

4

3

0

0

0

0

6

180 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-43 TRIBAL AREA-VIII, BAJOUR AGENCY

Gat

Wur

Dag

Rai

Kaga

KatsMena

AdaiAgra

Zari IrabKama

Soba

Niag

Nawa

MukhaMamun

Zagai

GilaiDabar

Kalan

GudarKuhai

Banda

Garho

Sarkai

Krewon

Kitkot

TarkhoBakaro

Gwatai

HashimTanraiTangai

AnderiSurgai

KotkaiChinar

Asghar Tanbar

Malika

Gabarai

Kakazai

Chingai

BadalaiGhakhai

LughraiNakhtar

GarigalGhundai

Nawagai

Dabbarai

Bandarai

Awi Shah

Damadola

Khararai

Tarkanri

Dherakai

Salarzai

Manrugai

Zargarai

Tiki Nao

Tsapparai

Shah Karo

Hazar Nao

Mujahidin

Miz Darra

Raja Banda

Bari Qadam

Mianz Qila

Kharkai Nao

Dozakh Shah

Sata Ziarat

Shahi Tangai

Ghakhai Pass

Haji Gul BabaBar Chamarkand

Sulaiman Khela

Kamangara Khwar

Kharai Kamangara

Ghilja Kamangara

NA-43 NA - 44

NA - 36

NA - 34

NA - 36

NA - 44NA - 43

NA - 34

NA - 33

NA - 35


ordering Dir and Malakand districts and Afghanistan's Kunar province, Bajaur is the smallest agency in the tribal areas in Bterms of geographical size and largest in terms of population.

The major tribes include Tarkani, Utman Khel and Salarzai. The Tarkani 1tribe is considered the most influential tribe politically in the region .



114,139 119,088

168,514

2002 2008 2013

63.2% 61.0%

36.8% 39.0%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

168,514

168,514

42,901

1,378

44,279

26.3%






263

9

7.9%

203

Registered Voters

A total of 119,088 voters were registered in the constituency in 2008 - 4.3% more than 114,139 voters registered in 2002. In 2013, the constituency saw a 41.5% increase in the number of registered voters which jumped to 168,514.

Voters by Gender

Though both male and female voters increased in 2013, the rise in female voters was proportionately higher. As a result, the ratio between male and female voters saw an improvement in 2013. In 2008, 63.2% of the registered voters were male while 36.8% were female. In 2013, the share of male votes decreased to 61%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 39% of the registered voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. Pp. 48-49

TRIBAL AREA-VIII, BAJOUR AGENCY NA-43FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 181




24.0%

12.8%

26.3%

2002 2008 2013

27,373

15,302

44,279

2002 2008 2013

IND 31.5%

JI 22.6% JUI

8.2%

Others 18.9%

PTI 15.7%

Rejected Votes 3.1%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 16 parties/candidates contesting the polls, independent candidate Bismillah Khan won the seat with a share of 31.5% in polled votes. He was followed by JI which secured 22.6% votes, while PTI managed to get nearly 16% of the polled votes. The JUI candidate received 8.2% votes, while the remaining candidate collectively secured a share of almost 19%. Moreover, 3.1% of the total votes were declared invalid.

a. Votes Polled

The number of polled votes has varied over the years – decreasing in 2008 and increasing sharply in 2013. In 2008, the constituency witnessed a 44.1% decrease in the number of polled votes, which went down from 27,373 in 2002 to 15,302 when registered voters increased by 4.3%. However, the number of polled votes went up nearly three times to 44,279 in 2013 against a 41.5% increase in registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-43 has shown a varying trend in voter turnout in the last three general elections. According to the ECP's results, the turnout went down from 24% in 2002 to only 12.8% in 2008. With 44,279 votes polled, the turnout increased once again to 26.3% in 2013 – showing a 13.5% increase compared to the previous election.

182 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-43



47.8% 48.5%

31.5%

25.2%20.1% 22.6%

13.1%

19.7%15.7%

2002 2008 2013


6,212

4,349 3,906

748 392 1,378

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

Like other parts of the region, NA-43 also witnessed a fragmented vote bank in 2013. In 2002, the winner claimed 47.8% of the polled votes which remained nearly constant (48.5%) in 2008. With a decrease of 17%, the winner's share was 31.5% of the total polled votes in 2013. The shares of runners-up have varied over the years and moved in opposite directions. While the 2008 elections saw a close contest between the runners-up, there was a considerable difference in their vote shares in 2002 and 2013. The first runner-up claimed 25.2% of the polled votes in 2002, 19.7% in 2008 and 22.6% in 2013. The second runner-up's 13% share in 2002 went up to 19.7% in 2008 and again decreased to 15.7% in 2013. In 2002 and 2008 the winner had a clear lead over the first runner-up. However the margin of victory narrowed as the share of the first runner-up in the polled votes went up. The sudden fragmentation of votes indicates that the voters in NA-43 have a tendency to produce unexpected results. Given the inconsistent voting pattern, it is hard to predict how the vote will swing in the next election.

Margin of Victory

Even though the margin of victory has decreased consistently, it has remained clearly above the count of rejected votes in the last three elections. The low ratio between rejected votes and winning margin shows a clear victory, with rejected votes being insignificant to influence the results in any of the three elections.

TRIBAL AREA-VIII, BAJOUR AGENCY NA-43FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 183



31.5

22.6

15.7

43.2

26.9

19.4

36.1

23.0

14.0

29.0

19.0

8.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Bismillah

Khan

JI

PTI



0 4

1




0.0% 0.0%

24.9% 24.9% 26.3%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout

PVT



- -

168,514

- -

43,269



0 0

112

0 0

30
































0

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

3

3

3

1

4

3

1

2

0

2

0

0

5

184 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-44 TRIBAL AREA-IX, BAJOUR AGENCY

Go

DabPao

Kar

Dag

LatWesKur

Tar

Rud

Gawa

Giro

LakuDand

Baro

Gawe

BadoBagh

Siah

Kuhi

Zaga

BaghTand

GidoAsil

Dand

Tazi

TaranLetai

GabarKadokDabar

Arzai Bigal

Tangu

NakaiDagai

DargaKuhaiDarraBanda

TalaiTabai

GhanaKamar

Walai

BarroWalai

PandoMajal

BataiTakht

KanduGoraiRobiaDarra

Matta

Sorai KothaRagha

Jowar

Bangal

BatwarJambal

Gatkai

ShagaiIlanai

Gardai

CharagNaranj

MazdakDerago

Alizai

Shagai

Jabagai

Dandkoi

Kodagai

Amankot

Marchai

SarlaraManagai

Gadamar

Gidarai

Targhao

Arhangai

Rag Kili

Kuhi SarSar Lara

Bandagai

Sia Mena

Chilargam

Lar Madak

Tsapparai

Sara Mena

Pinjkorai

Sara Nawa

Utman Khel

Tangi Khwar

Gora Inkal-Sar

Mullah Saiyid Khwar

NA - 34

NA-44

NA - 36

NA - 35

NA - 43

NA - 33NA - 34

NA - 44

NA - 36 NA - 35

NA - 33

NA - 43

NA - 10NA - 8


omprising Salarzai, Utman Khel, Barang and Khar tehsils of Bajaur Agency, NA-44 is home to various tribes. The Tarkani Ctribe is considered the most influential political force in the

1area. However, religious parties also have a considerable vote bank .



131,926 136,052

185,040

2002 2008 2013

63.6% 63.9%

36.4% 36.1%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

187,108

185,040

58,959

1,502

60,461

32.7%

Winner's Status: PML-N (1st Win)





257

7

12.9%

132

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 136,052 registered voters - 3.1% more than 131,926 voters in 2002. In 2013, the number of registered voters increased by another 36% to 185,040.

Voters by Gender

The ratio between male and female voters remained roughly the same between 2008 and 2013, indicating a proportionate increase in both male and female voters. In 2008, the constituency had 63.6% male and 36.4% female voters. In 2013, the proportion of male voters increased slightly to 63.9%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 36.1% of the registered voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat Pp.50-51

TRIBAL AREA-IX, BAJOUR AGENCY NA-44FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 185




22.0%17.7%

32.7%

2002 2008 2013

28,969 24,068

60,461

2002 2008 2013

IND 10.8%

JI 19.8%

JUI 10.3%

Others 13.0%

PML-N 25.0%

PPPP 6.8% PTI

11.7% Rejected

Votes 2.5%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 26 parties/candidates contesting the polls, PML-N won the seat with 25% votes. JI was the runner-up with almost 20% votes, while PTI managed to get around 11.7% votes. Independent candidate Haji Bahadar Khan received 10.8% of the votes while JUI and PPPP secured 10.3% and 6.8% votes respectively. The remaining parties and candidates received a combined share of 13%, while 2.5% of the polled votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

In 2002, the constituency saw 28,969 votes being polled, which dropped 17% to 24,068 in 2008 when registered voters increased 3%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped to 60,461, showing a rise of 151% against a 36% increase in registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

In 2002, the constituency saw a turnout of 22%, which came down to 17.7% in 2008. However, with 60,461 votes polled, the constituency saw a turnout of 32.7% in 2013 – 15% more than the turnout in 2008.

186 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-44



46.2%

26.0% 25.0%29.2%

21.6%19.8%

8.7%

19.3%

11.7%

2002 2008 2013


4,924

1,054

3,142

923 847 1,502

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The voting pattern shows a shift from a two-party race to a division of votes between multiple parties/candidates in the past three elections. In 2002, the polls were largely defined by the top two candidates who collectively received 75.4% of the polled votes. The winner's share in 2002 (46.2%) went down significantly to 26% in 2008 and 25% in 2013. The first runner-up's share also witnessed a decrease - from 29.2% in 2002 to 21.6% in 2008 and 19.8% in 2013. While the winner and the first runner-up saw a decrease in their vote shares, the second runner-up's share increased from 8.7% in 2002 to 19.3% in 2008. However, the second runner-up's share came down to 11.7% in 2013. As the margin of victory considerably decreased in 2008, the vote share of the winner and the first runner-up also came down, indicating a divided electorate. This trend largely persisted in 2013, suggesting that the next polls may also witness a similar voting pattern.

Margin of Victory

The margin of victory remained considerably higher than the number of rejected votes in 2002 and 2013. Even though the winning margin was close to the number of rejected votes in 2008, it was still high enough to keep the results unaffected.

TRIBAL AREA-IX, BAJOUR AGENCY NA-44FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 187



25.0

19.8

10.3

36.8

22.0

16.7

28.5

18.2

12.3

20.2

14.4

7.9

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

PML-N

JI

JUI



2 2

6




0.0% 0.0%

32.0% 32.0% 32.7%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout

PVT



0 0

119

0 0

30



- -

185,040

- -

48,337
































0

5

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

1

0

4

0

1

0

1

4

1

1

8

188 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-45 TRIBAL AREA-X, KHYBER AGENCY

Hasar Nao

Rahim MenaGarang Nao

Raja Talao

Tatra Khwar

Sargat Khwara

Haidar Khan Nao

NA-45

NA - 36

NA - 46

NA - 3

NA - 2

NA - 8

NA - 45

NA - 36

NA - 46NA - 39

NA - 3

NA - 2

NA - 4

NA - 8


ituated between Peshawar, Afghanistan, Kurram Agency and Orakzai Agency, NA-45 (Khyber Agency) lies to the extreme Snorthwest of the country. The major tribes include Afridis,

Shinwaris Utman Khel, Akka Khel and Shilmani. Traditionally, the voting behaviour has largely been driven by personality politics more than

1the ideological affiliations .



91,361 101,272

175,036

2002 2008 2013

73.0%58.9%

27.0%

41.1%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

175,036

175,036

69,541

1,007

70,548

40.3%






247

4

11.8%

148

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 101,272 registered voters - 10.8% more than the 91,361 voters in 2002. In 2013, the registered voters increased by 72.8% to 175,036.

Voters by Gender

Though both male and female voters increased between 2008 and 2013, the increase in female voters was considerably higher. As a result, there was a significant reduction in the gender gap in 2013. While there were nearly seven male voters for every three female voters in 2008, the 2013 elections had almost six male voters for every four female voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.53

TRIBAL AREA-X, KHYBER AGENCY NA-45FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 189




21.9%

35.0%40.3%

2002 2008 2013

20,046

35,479

70,548

2002 2008 2013

JI 5.8%

Others 9.0%

PTI 13.0%


42.1%

IND-2 28.6%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 18 parties/candidates contesting the polls, independent candidate Alhaj Shah Jee Gul Afridi won the seat with 42.1% of the polled votes. Another independent candidate Pir Noor Ul Haq Qadri came in second with 28.6% votes, while the PTI followed with 13% votes. In addition, JI secured nearly 6% votes, while the remaining parties and candidates received a combined share of 9% votes. Moreover, 1.4% of the votes were declared invalid.

a. Votes Polled

The number of polled votes has increased consistently between 2002 and 2013. In 2008, the constituency saw a 77% increase (from 20,046 to 35,479) when the number of registered voters increased only 10.8%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped almost twice to 70,548 against a 72.8% increase in registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-45 has witnessed a consistent increase in voter turnout. According to the ECP's results, the turnout increased from 21.9% in 2002 to 35% in 2008. With 70,548 votes polled, the turnout further increased to 40.3% in 2013.

190 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-45



45.5%

39.1%42.1%

20.6%

35.4%

28.6%

13.3% 15.1% 13.0%

2002 2008 2013


4,990

1,328

9,516

348 513 1,007

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

The voting pattern in NA-45 shows an inconsistent trend, moving from one candidate's prevalence in 2002 to a two-way race in 2008 and a re-consolidation of votes towards the winner in 2013. In 2002, the winner secured the seat with 45.5% votes – more than the combined share of the two runners-up. While the winner's share decreased to 39% in 2008, the first runner-up's share increased sharply to 35.4%, resulting in a close contest between the two candidates. The difference between the winner and runner-up's shares increased once again in 2013, showing a relatively consolidated electorate once again. The second runner-up has largely maintained its vote share – securing 13.3% votes in 2002, 15% in 2008 and 13% in 2013. This voting pattern indicates that the voters in NA-45 have a tendency to produce unexpected results. Given the inconsistent pattern, it is hard to predict how the vote will swing in the next election.

Margin of Victory

While the margin of victory has varied sharply, it has remained significantly higher than the number of rejected votes in the past three elections. This shows a clear victory for the winner, with rejected votes being insignificant to influence the results in any of the three elections.

TRIBAL AREA-X, KHYBER AGENCY NA-45FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 191



42.1

28.6

13.0

47.9

38.5

18.1

41.4

28.3

13.7

34.8

18.1

9.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

AlhajShahJeeGul

Afridi

PirNoor

ulHaq

Qadri

PTI



7 1

4




47.8%

23.1%

48.3%39.1% 40.3%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout

PVT



91,544

65,629

17,863 23,548 14,505

2,844



58

48

161610

4
































0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

4

3

2

1

0

1

0

0

3

192 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

Zer

Kui

Kot

UchaPoya

PingPati

Pisi

PiniShin

Bume

Gosa

Kasa

Besai

BijalTabai

Shkar

Rucha

SirinDabak

WallaiGondai

Nashpa

SarobeGardai

Tangal

LoresaPirdal

Ghwora

Gabbar

Ad ZaiMarang

Karangi

ShakaraiMir Zada

Itar Wam

Swo Ghar

Masheping

Kinra Pal

Tsapparai

Gidara Pal

Rucha Camp

Wacha Nala

Khan Khelan

Ambar Algad

Chachai Khwara

NA-40

NA-27

NA-25

NA-47

NA-26

NA-42

NA-15

NA-16

NA-47

NA-38

Zao

Dag

Gok

Toi Sur

Nuza Lwar

Tora

Gang

Bain

ZaraKuzo

LaraPare

Perai

Miani

TatarTajri

Pepal

GabaiKaram

Gidar

Sarai

Dargai

MaidanMarhel

Torgai

HisariDabbar

Suranne

Marmand

Yowatak

Laghzan

Zao Fort

Zam Burj

Chamazai Usterana

Gori Chak

Shaidarra

Samala Kach

NA-264

NA-25

NA-24

NA-263NA-171

NA-47

NA-181


Khui

China

PakhiPayah GarehPridi

AfridiSurkhaw

TarunaiTelai SarKuz Pakhi

Kalan Khel Pastawanai

Lakhe Tigai

China Khwar

Walai KandaoNA-47

NA-14

NA-4NA-46

NA-5

NA-6

NA-39

Fr. Peshawar & Kohat

Fr. D.I. Khan

Fr. Bannu, Tank &

Lakki Marwat

NA-47 TRIBAL AREA-XII, PESHAWAR/BANNU/KOHAT/D.I.KHAN/TANK/LAKKI

ituated to the east of the seven agencies in FATA and west to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, NA-47 represents a group of six Sadministrative units. Apart from FR Peshawar and FR Kohat,

none of administrative units are geographically connected to each other. Unlike tribal area, the Frontier Regions are administered by

1their respective district administrations .



120,963

130,662

121,265

2002 2008 2013

63.8% 64.4%

36.2% 35.6%

2008 2013

Male Voters

Female Voters



Valid Votes:

Rejected Votes:

Total Votes Polled:

Turnout:

121,745

121,265

48,139

457

48,596

40.1%

Winner's Status: PTI (1st Win)





248

5

7.2%

212

Registered Voters

In 2008, the constituency had 130,662 registered voters - 8% more than 120,963 voters in 2002. In 2013, the registered voters decreased by 7.2% to 121,265.

Voters by Gender

Indicating a proportionate increase, the ratio of male and female voters between 2008 and 2013 remained roughly the same. In 2008, the constituency had 63.8% male and 36.2% female voters. In 2013, the proportion of male voters went up slightly to 64.4%, while female voters accounted for the remaining 35.6% of the registered voters.

1 Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. Pp.56-57

TRIBAL AREA-XII, PESHAWAR/BANNU/KOHAT/D.I.KHAN/TANK/LAKKI NA-47

FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 193




29.0%

36.8%40.1%

2002 2008 2013

35,041

48,108 48,596

2002 2008 2013

ANP 5.8%

JUI 21.1%

Others 14.7%

PML-N 8.9%

PTI 23.3%

Rejected Votes 0.9%

IND-1 10.3% IND-2

8.5% IND-3 6.5%


Turnout Analysis

Out of 36 parties/candidates contesting the polls, PTI emerged victorious with 23.3% of the polled votes. JUI was the runner-up with 21.1% votes, while independent candidate Sher Azam Khan and PML-N followed with 10.3% and 8.9% votes respectively. In addition, independent candidates Abdullah Nangial Bhattani and Abid Ur Rehman received 8.5% and 6.5% votes respectively, while ANP secured nearly 6% of the total votes. Other candidates collectively received a share of 14.7%, while nearly 1% of the polled votes were rejected.

a. Votes Polled

In 2002, the constituency saw 35,041 votes polled, which increased by 37.3% to 48,108 in 2008 along with the registered voters which also went up 8%. In 2013, the number of polled votes went up only 1% compared to 2008 despite a 7.2% increase in the number of registered voters.

b. Voter Turnout

A predominantly rural area, NA-47 has shown a consistent increase in voter turnout in the past three general elections. According to the ECP's results, the turnout went up from 29% in 2002 to 36.8% in 2008. With 48,596 votes polled, the turnout further increased to 40.1% in 2013 – 3.3% more than the turnout in 2008.

194 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g

NA-47



29.5%

44.5%

23.3%29.3%

21.8% 21.1%

15.5%19.2%

10.3%

2002 2008 2013


64

10,958

1,088 414 402

457

2002 2008 2013


Voting Pattern

Like NA-45, the voting pattern in NA-47 has remained inconsistent in the last three elections. In 2002, the polls were defined by a close race between the top two candidates who collectively received a share of 58.8% in polled votes. The race, however, was broken in 2008 with the winner's share increasing to 44.5% - more than combined share of the runners-up. The 2013 elections witnessed a close race between the top two candidates once again. According to the results, the winner's 23.3% share in the polled votes was closely followed by the first runner who received 21.1% votes. The second runner-up's share has also fluctuated over the years – going up from 15.5% in 2002 to 19.2% in 2008 and falling down to 10.3% in 2013. This voting pattern reflects the flexible behaviour of the voting population, suggesting that the voters in NA-47 have a tendency to produce unpredictable results. Given the inconsistent pattern, it is hard to predict how voters will behave in the next election.

Margin of Victory

While the number of rejected votes has remained at the same level, the margin of victory has seen sharp variations between 2002 and 2013. In 2002, the winning margin was considerably lower than the number of rejected votes. The situation reversed completely in 2008, when the winning margin was multiple times higher than the number of rejected votes. Though the winning margin fell once again in 2013, it was still high enough to keep the results unaffected.

TRIBAL AREA-XII, PESHAWAR/BANNU/KOHAT/D.I.KHAN/TANK/LAKKI NA-47

FATA

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 195




0 0

4




0.0%

41.4% 41.4% 40.1%


Turnout ± 0.4%

ECPTurnout

PVT



23.3

21.1

10.3

30.4

27.5

16.5

23.4

22.2

11.9

16.4

17.0

7.3

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

PTI

JUI

Sher AzamKhan


3,112 2,644

115,989

- -

34,154



3 3

143

0 0

41



0.0%






























2

1

1

2

0

0

1

2

3

1

1

1

1

2

3

2

0

1

5

5

1

1

2

1

1

9

analysis of 2013 fata general election results (fafen report, january 2014)

News & Politics