an urbanizing world

8/3/2019 An Urbanizing World

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BULLETINA publication of the Population Reference Bureau

Population

Vol. 55, No. 3

September 2000

Nearly all futurepopulation growthwill occur in urbanareas.

Reducing urbanpoverty is crucial formanaging urban

population change.

Internet and

transportationnetworks link worldcities and enhanceurban economic growth

An Urbanizing World

by Martin P. Brockerhoff


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BULLETINA publication of the Population Reference Bureau

Population

Vol. 55, No. 3

September 2000

An Urbanizing WorldIntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Urban Population Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Box 1. What is Urban? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Figure 1. Percent of Population Living in Urban Areas in Major WorldRegions, 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Figure 2. Urban and Rural Population, Less Developed Countries,

1950 to 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 3. Population Growth Rates in Urban and Rural Areas, Less and

More Developed Countries, 1975 to 2000 and 2000 to 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 4. Share of World Population Growth in Urban and Rural Areas,

1950 to 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Figure 5. Number of Cities With 1 Million or More Residents,

1975, 1995, and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Trends in Less Developed Regions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Box 2. Megacities: Decline, Growth, and Changing Locations. . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Figure 6. Percent of Population in Large Cities, Other Urban, and RuralAreas, 1975, 1995, and 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Figure 7. The Worlds 100 Largest Cities in 2000,and Selected Other Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 8. Population of Selected Large Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa,1965, 1990, and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Figure 9. Projected Urban and Rural Populations, Selected AsianCountries, 2000 and 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Trends in More Developed Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Urban Demographics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Table 1. Sex Ratio of Urban and Rural Populations, Selected Countries,

1990 to 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Table 2. Percent of Population Under Age 5 and Age 65 or Older in Urban

and Rural Areas, Selected Countries, 1992 to 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Table 3. Average Household Size in Urban and Rural Areas, Selected

Countries, 1990 to 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Urban Challenges of Less Developed Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Box 3. Urban Poverty Projects: Global and Local Initiatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Box 4. The UN Conferences on Human Settlements: 1976 and 1996. . . . . . 24Table 4. Urban Households With Piped Water, Less Developed Countries

by Region, 1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Box 5. The Healthy Cities Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Continued on page 2


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About the Author

Martin P. Brockerhoffis an associate of the Policy Research Division of the Population Council.

He has worked in 22 countries as a demographer with USAIDs Office of Population and theU.S. Census Bureau, and as a research consultant on urban issues for international develop-ment organizations including the World Health Organization, the United Nations PopulationFund, and the United Nations Development Programme. Brockerhoffs current research interestsinclude the demography of the urban poor and migration-health interrelationships. He has pub-lished extensively on issues of urbanization in leading population and social science journals.

The author thanks the Hewlett, Mellon, and Rockefeller foundations for their support of hisurban population research at the Population Council. He also thanks Tony Champion, SidneyGoldstein, and other reviewers for their helpful comments during the preparation of this report,and Hilary Brougher and Mary Kent for their editorial assistance.

2000 by the Population Reference Bureau

Table 5. Percent of Women Ages 15 to 39 in Urban and Rural Areas,Selected Countries, 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Urban Challenges of More Developed Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 10. Immigrants Admitted to the United States and New York City

by Area of Origin, 1990 to 1994. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

The Urban Future in Less Developed Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Managing Population Change in U.S. Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Box 6. Restoring Americas Cities: Lessons of Urban Planning . . . . . . . . . . . 38

The Sustainability of an Urbanizing World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Suggested Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44


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Managing urban populationchange will be one of theworlds most important chal-

lenges in the next few decades. In lessdeveloped countries, where 80 per-cent of the worlds population re-sides, central issues will be how tocope with an unprecedented increasein the number of people living in ur-ban areas and the growing concentra-tion of these urbanites in large citieswith millions of residents. In more de-veloped countries such as the UnitedStates, the urban future will involvedealing with complex changes in the

composition of urban populationswhile also containing urban sprawlbeyond suburbs into what remains ofthe countryside.

In Asia, Africa, and Latin America,the unprecedented populationgrowth that characterized much ofthe 20th century has evolved into un-paralleled urban growth. The UnitedNations (UN) projects that worldpopulation will expand from 6.1 bil-lion to 7.8 billion between 2000 and

202590 percent of this growth willoccur in urban areas of less devel-oped countries.1 By 2020, a majorityof the population of less developedcountries will live in urban areas.

The population of less developedcountries will become increasinglyconcentrated in large cities of 1 mil-lion or more residents. There were anestimated 292 such million-plus citiesin less developed countries in 2000.Megacities, with 10 million or more

residents, are also becoming more nu-

merous and will play an important rolein the worlds urban future. Many ofthe largest cities are likely to absorbenormous population increments.Lagos, Nigeria, for example, is expect-ed to add nearly 10 million people be-tween 2000 and 2015, while Dhaka,Bangladesh, will add 9 million.

The tremendous population

growth in the urban areas of less de-

An Urbanizing Worldby Martin P. Brockerhoff

Crowded city streets in South Korea offer a preview of the tremen-dous urban growth ahead. Unprecedented population growthand industrialization in the 20th century sparked an urban

demographic revolution that continues in the 21st century.

Photo removed forcopyright reasons.


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4

veloped countries can be viewed as awelcome or as an alarming trend. His-torically, cities have been the enginesof economic development and thecenters of industry and commerce.They have spurred innovations in sci-ence and technology and in systemsof law and government. Cities have fa-

cilitated the diffusion of informationthrough interaction among diversecultures. The density of urban popu-lations has offered significant costadvantages for governments in the de-livery of essential goods and services,and for the private sector, in the pro-duction and consumption of suchitems.2

Cities have also played a crucialrole in reducing fertility, thereby slow-ing world population growth. In the19th century, urban residents of Eu-rope and North America were amongthe first people to widely practice fam-ily planning, and they helped spreadthe idea of fertility regulation to thecountryside. Today, fertility levels areinvariably lower in urban than in ruralareas of less developed countries.3 Thegrowing concentration of residentsin urban areas, where the costs ofchildrearing are higher, family plan-

ning services are more available, andsocial norms are more conducive tosmall families than in rural areas, mayhasten global fertility decline.

The unprecedented magnitude ofurban growth has engendered debateabout whether less developed coun-tries and their large cities can accom-modate the current volume of urbangrowth. This dispute echoes disagree-ments voiced a generation ago re-garding limits to the number of

people the world can support. Someobservers claim that good urban man-agement and governance can over-come population constraints. Theynote that some big cities in less devel-oped countries are competing suc-cessfully on economic terms withtheir counterparts in more developedcountries by offering vast supplies ofrelatively inexpensive labor. Moreover,there is no evidence of a thresholdpopulation size beyond which cities

generate more negative than positive

effects for their countries. And the in-formation revolution enables strug-gling cities to improve by adoptingbest practices of successful cities.4

Yet experts in other circles arehighly concerned about the urban fu-ture. Experts in the health sciences,for instance, warn that uncontrolled

in-migration and increased density ispushing morbidity and mortality high-er in cities than in surrounding ruralareas, as was the case in some U.S.cities in 1900.5 Some environmental-ists point out that the unplanned de-velopment of big cities is depletingnonrenewable natural resources andcontributing to global climate change.Further, many cities in less developedcountries are built on ecologicallyfragile foundations, or are vulnerableto such natural disasters as earth-quakes, floods, and destructive storms.Unbridled population growth in thesecities increases the risk of catastrophicloss of life.

Some political scientists maintainthat rampant urban growth is increas-ing urban poverty and inequality,which in turn could spark a weaken-ing of the state, civil unrest, urban-based revolutions, and radical

religious fundamentalism.

6

Econo-mists see a shortage of decent in-come-earning opportunities in cities,while urban planners see a lack of liv-able spatial forms.

In more developed countries suchas the United States, there looms a dif-ferent urban future: Challenges arearising less from population growththan from changes in the compositionand distribution of urban populations.

Urban planners in more developed

countries confront problems that dateback several decades. Residential seg-regation remains prominent amongthese issues. The departure of manyaffluent residents from central citiesto suburbs, a trend experienced inseveral countries since the 1970s, hasbeen countered by strategies of urbanrevitalization, the gentrification of in-ner-city neighborhoods by young pro-fessionals, and the return of middle-aged empty nesters to cities.7 These

revitalization processes generally help

Cities haveplayed a crucialrole in reducing

fertilityandslowing worldpopulation

growth.


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cities generate sales and tax revenues,but they also tend to widen the dis-parity in housing costs between neigh-borhoods and further concentratelow-income minority groups in slumsand ghettos. The notion that there isa permanent urban underclass,trapped in the inner-city by inade-

quate educational and income-earn-ing opportunities, is as relevant todayas when it was first raised in the1960s.8

New urban challenges are emerg-ing in more developed countries. Asthese countries experience populationaging, their cities will house an in-creasing proportion of elderly personswith special needs. Immigration is di-versifying the ethnic profile of urbanpopulations in the United States andmany other more developed coun-tries, creating exciting opportunitiesfor cultural interaction. But immigra-tion also spurs ethnic clustering,intolerance toward minorities, andincreased demands for basic services.

Also in the United States, the con-tinued movement of baby boomersaway from central cities, beyond sub-urbs and into exurbs that offeraccess to nature as well as close prox-

imity to city amenities, portends thevirtual disappearance of traditionallyrural areas in many large regions.Meanwhile, a critical shortage of af-fordable housing in many cities isforcing some middle-income residentsto move into dilapidated housing andothers to homelessness.

This Population Bulletinexaminestrends of urban population changein less developed and more devel-oped regions. Among more devel-

oped countries, particular attentionis given to the United States. Thereport describes the demographicsources of urban growth in less devel-oped countries, traits that distinguishurban from rural populations in thesecountries, and some of the criticalchallenges posed by the urban demo-graphic revolution. Policies to man-age cities and urban growth arediscussed, incorporating concepts ofthe city that have recently emerged in

urban population studies.

Urban PopulationTrendsUrban population change is mostcommonly described by two meas-ures: (1) the level of urbanization,and (2) the rate of urban growth. Thelevel of urbanization represents the

share of a countrys total populationthat lives in urban areas (see Box 1,page 6).

The worlds urbanization level in-creased steadily throughout the 20thcentury. After 1950, the first year forwhich the UN provides urban data forall countries, the percentage urbanrose from 30 percent of world popu-lation to an estimated 47 percent inthe year 2000. The urban share is pro-jected to reach 58 percent by 2025.

The population of the more devel-oped world was already 55 percent ur-banized in 1950, reached 76 percentin 2000, and is expected to be 82 per-cent in 2025 (see Figure 1, page 7).Because more developed countriesare already highly urbanized, their ur-ban share is not projected to increasesubstantially.

In contrast, the level of urbaniza-tion in the less developed countries

was just 18 percent in 1950, but itneared 40 percent in 2000, and is pro-jected to be 54 percent in 2025. Theless developed world is urbanizing asquickly now as was the United Statesand other more developed countriesduring the first half of the 20th centu-ry. This rapid urbanization is occur-ring because there is a large pool ofpotential migrants to the cities livingin the countryside, and because ratesof natural increase (an areas birth

rate minus its death rate) are not sub-stantially lower in urban than in ruralareas. The urban population in lessdeveloped areas is expected to nearlydouble in size between 2000 and 2025from just less than 2 billion to morethan 3.5 billion. It is projected to sur-pass the rural population by 2020.The rural population in less devel-oped countries is projected to stopgrowing after 2020, at about 3.1 bil-lion, while the urban population will

continue to grow, causing further in-


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Trackingpopulation

change can be

complicated bychanges in urbanboundaries or

definitions.

Box 1

What is Urban?

Because the definition of an urbanpopulation varies widely from countryto country, urban statistics should be in-terpreted with caution. Of the 228countries for which the United Nations

(UN) compiles data, roughly half useadministrative considerationssuch asresiding in the capital of the country orof a provinceto designate people asurban dwellers. Among the other coun-tries, 51 distinguish urban and ruralpopulations based on the size or densityof locales, 39 rely on functional charac-teristics such as the main economic ac-tivity of an area, 22 have no definitionof urban, and eight countries defineall (Singapore, for example) or none(several countries in Polynesia) of theirpopulations as living in urban areas.

The UN accepts each countrys defi-nition when it calculates urban popula-tion estimates and projections. Thispractice recognizes that governmentsknow best what features distinguish ur-ban from rural places in their owncountries. But, this approach hinderscomparison of urban population dataacross countries because no standarddefinition exists. Burundi, in central

Africa, for example, is densely popu-

lated, yet it defines as urban only thecapital city, Bujumbura, where 8 percentof the national population resided in1996. In the neighboring DemocraticRepublic of the Congo (formerly Zaire)urban areas include all areas with2,000 residents or more and havingmainly nonagricultural functions. Un-der this broader interpretation, 29 per-cent of the Congos residents were livingin urban areas. If these two countrieshad similar definitions of urbanif Bu-rundi classified residents of large towns

as urban, and the Congo excluded thepopulations living in the dozens of small

villagesthe two countries might havesimilar proportions of their populationsresiding in urban areas (that is, similarlevels of urbanization).

Countries sometimes change theirdefinitions of urban places over time,

which also makes precise measurementof urban populations problematic.China is a notable example. Since the1980s, Chinas urban population figures

have been distorted by the establishmentof hundreds of new cities and thousandsof new urban towns with extensiveboundaries. Such reclassification of ruralplaces as urban implausibly raised the of-

ficial level of urbanization in FuijanProvince, for instance, from 21 percentin 1982 to 57 percent in 1990 and to 84percent in 1995. For a more realistic pic-ture of the urban population, ChinasState Statistical Bureau applied a second,more limited definition of urban to 1990census data. Under this definition, Fui-

jan Province was 21 percent urban in1990, as it was in 1982. Yet the practiceof urban redefinition continues inprovincial China, challenging demogra-phers and statisticians to track urbanpopulation change across time.

The United States has also modifiedits definition of urban over time. Theearliest classification, published in 1874,

was based on incorporated places(cities, towns, boroughs, and villages) of8,000 or more residents. This limit waslowered to 4,000 in 1880, and to thepresent minimum size of 2,500 in 1906.In 1970, unincorporated places and set-tlements of less than 2,500 people inurbanized zones on the fringes of ex-

tended cities were officially included aspart of the urban population. This defi-nition was applied to the 1990 Census.

The Chinese and U.S. examples il-lustrate several important points aboutthe measurement of urbanization. First,tracking change in urban populationscan be complicated because of changesin urban boundaries or in the defini-tions of urban areas. For the manycountries that change their definitionsof urban areas between censuses or oth-er enumeration efforts, the UN and

most government statistical agenciesusually apply the most recent definitionto earlier population counts to get cred-ible trends of urban population change.However, UN and government esti-mates for these countries should not beconsidered as exact.

Second, national definitions of urbanareas often encompass populations inrelatively small settlements. Uganda, forexample, classifies locales with as few as100 residents as urban. Areas this small


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typically have few of the characteristicsthat one associates with cities, such asnonagricultural activities or modern in-frastructure. Thus, it is not appropriateto use the terms urban and city syn-

onymously. Generally, a city is consid-ered a place with a relatively largepopulation that has a certain legal sta-tus, granted by the national or provin-cial government, and that is associated

with specific administrative or local gov-ernment structures. Third, an urban ag-glomeration (or metropolitan area inU.S. terms) may include cities, urbanareas, suburban fringes, and densely set-tled nonurban territory. These areas of-ten encompass substantial amounts ofrural land. In Japan and the Philip-pines, for example, large numbers ofpeople who live in essentially rural areasare included within the boundaries ofofficially urban areas.

In the United States, populationis classified as living either in metro-politan or nonmetropolitan areas forpolitical, legal, and administrative pur-poses. While metropolitan generallyrefers to urban populations, and non-metropolitan applies primarily to ruralpopulations, these overarching cate-

gories can include both urban and ru-ral populations. An urban area may belocated outside of a metropolitan area,but a metropolitan area contains atleast one urban area.

References

United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects:The 1999 Revision(New York: United Na-tions, 2000); Judith Banister, China: Inter-nal and Regional Migration Trends, in

Floating Population and Migration in China:

The Impact of Economic Reforms, ed. Thomas

Scharping (Hamburg, Germany: Institut frAseinkunde, 1997): 72-97; Henry S. Shryock,Jacob S. Siegel, and Associates, The Methodsand Materials of Demography, Condensed edi-tion, ed. Edward G. Stockwell (New York:

Academic Press, 1976); U.S. Census Bureau,Geographic Areas Reference Manual Files,Urban Rural Classifications, Chap.12. Ac-cessed online at: www.census.gov/geo/

www/GARM/Ch12GARM.pdf, on July 25,2000; and World Bank, World Development Re-

port 1999/2000(New York: Oxford University

Press for The World Bank, 1999): 127.

creases in the level of urbanization

(see Figure 2, page 8).Over the next quarter century, in-creases in urbanization will be almostentirely attributable to sub-SaharanAfrica and Asia. Urbanization is pro-jected to increase from 34 percent to49 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, andfrom 35 percent to 50 percent in Asia(excluding Japan). In Latin Americaand the Caribbean, 75 percent of thepopulation already resides in urbancenters so the future pace of urbaniza-

tion will be slow.

Figure 1Percent of Population Living in Urban Areas inMajor World Regions, 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2025

1950 1975 2000 2025

World More developedcountries

Less developedcountries

Percentofpopulatio

n

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

38

47

5855

70

7682

18

27

40

54

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Latin America &the Caribbean

Asia(except Japan)

P

ercentofpopulation

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

21

34

49

15

22

35

50

41

61

75

82

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision(2000).


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Europe and other regions of themore developed world are expectedto become slightly more urbanized inthe near future, even though somecountries may see their total popula-tions decline. The UN projects thatthe population of Southern Europewill decline from 144 million to 136

million between 2000 and 2025, for

example. The urban population isprojected to rise from 96 millionto more than 100 million over theperiod, while the rural populationis projected to fall from 48 millionto 34 million. As a result, the levelof urbanization in Southern Europewill increase from 66 percent to 75

percent.The rate of urban growth is the

other measure commonly used tocompare countries over time andamong each other. The rate of urbangrowth indicates the number of per-sons added to an urban populationduring a year per 100 urban dwellers.The average annual rate of urbangrowth has fallen precipitously inmore developed countries, from 1.99percent between 1950 and 1975, to0.83 percent between 1975 and 2000.The average rate is projected to fall to0.41 percent during the first quarterof the 21st century (see Figure 3). Al-though average urban growth ratesare falling in less developed coun-tries, they remain well above those inmore developed countries.

Urban growth in less developedcountries will account for a large ma-jority of world population growth in

coming decades. The rural popula-tion of more developed countries hasbeen declining for decadesfrom370 million in 1950 to an anticipated215 million in 2025while the ruralpopulation of less developed coun-tries is expected to add only another170 million before starting to declineslowly around 2020. A small fractionof world population growth will occurin urban areas of more developedcountries, mainly the United States

(see Figure 4).Although urban areas are growingat slower rates in less developed coun-tries now than in the 20th century,the number of people added eachyear continues to rise because therates are applied to an ever-increasingpopulation base. The average annualgrowth rate from 1975 to 2000 was3.5 percent, which, applied to the1975 urban population of 810 millionfor less developed countries, meant

an increase of 1.13 billion urbanites8

Rural

0

1

2

3

4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025

Populationin

billions

Urban

Figure 2Urban and Rural Population, Less DevelopedCountries, 1950 to 2025


Figure 3Population Growth Rates in Urban and Rural Areas,Less and More Developed Countries, 1975 to 2000and 2000 to 2025

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1.90

3.50

1.11 1.22

2.40

0.02

0.50

0.83

-0.39

0.410.09

-1.13

1975-2000 2000-2025

1975-2000 2000-2025

Less developed countries

More developed countries

Total Urban Rural

Averageannualrateofgrowth

Source: Derived from United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision(2000).


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9

during the period. Although the an-nual urban growth rate projected forthe next quarter century is much low-er, 2.4 percent, it will be applied to alarger urban population base of 1.94billion, and is projected to expandthe urban population by 1.60 billionpeople between 2000 and 2025. The

number of persons added to the ur-ban population in less developedcountries probably better indicatesthe challenges faced by governments,urban planners, nongovernmentalservice providers, and urban residentsthan does the rate of urban growth.

The worlds urban population israpidly concentrating in very largecities. By 2015, the number of citieswith more than 1 million residents isprojected to be about 564, up from195 cities in 1975. Asia, Africa, andother less developed regions haveseen the most dramatic increase inthe number of cities with 1 million ormore residents and in the proportionof the total population concentratedin these million-plus cities. In moredeveloped countries, including Japanand the United States, the number ofcities with at least 1 million inhabi-tants increased modestly between

1975 and 1995, from 85 to 114, and isexpected to reach 138 by 2015, thelatest year for which individual cityprojections are available (see Figure5). By contrast, between 1975 and1995, the number of million-pluscities in less developed countriessoared from 110 to 250, and is expect-ed to surpass 425 by 2015.

In more developed countries, theproportion of the population living inthese large cities is anticipated to grow

from 23 percent in 1975 to 30 percentin 2015 (see Figure 6, page 11). Evenmore rapid concentration is projectedfor the urban populations of less de-veloped countries: The share living inmillion-plus cities is projected to risefrom less than 10 percent in 1975 tomore than 20 percent by 2015. Thus,the future will bring not just an urban-izing world but, perhaps more signifi-cantly, a world in which people aremore likely to be residents of very

large cities (see Box 2, page 10).

Trends in LessDeveloped Regions

The levels of urbanization in less de-veloped countries lag 75 years behindthose of the more developed coun-tries. In Europe, North America, and

other more developed regions, urban-ization increased from 26 percent to40 percent between 1900 and 1925.Urbanization levels rose by a similarmargin in less developed countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

19501975 19752000 20002025

48

19

33

34

9

57

90

55

Urban, lessdevelopedcountries

Urban, moredevelopedcountries

Rural, allcountries

Per

centofworldpopulationgrowth

Figure 4Share of World PopulationGrowth in Urban and RuralAreas, 1950 to 2025

Source: Derived from United Nations, World Urbaniza-tion Prospects: The 1999 Revision(2000).

Less developed countries

More developed countries

1975 1995 2015

11085

250

114

426

138Numberofcities

500

400

300

200

100

0

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The

1999 Revision(2000).

Figure 5Number of Cities With 1 Million orMore Residents, 1975, 1995, and2015


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10

The United Nations (UN) coined theterm megacities in the 1970s to desig-nate all urban agglomerations with apopulation of 8 million or more. Inthe 1990s, the UN raised the popula-

tion threshold to 10 million, followingthe practice of institutions such as the

Asian Development Bank. The UN es-timates that there are 19 megacities inthe world at the beginning of the 21stcentury.

Megacities have captured public in-terest because cities this large are un-precedented in history, and because ofthe popular perception that human

well-being will decline in such denseconcentrations of people. Not long

ago, it was unimaginable that citiesmight house more than 20 millionpeople, yet these totals are projectedfor Mumbai (formerly Bombay, India),Lagos (Nigeria), and So Paulo(Brazil) by 2015. Indeed, in 1900 onlyLondon had as many as 5 million resi-dents. The unfavorable living condi-tions during the Industrial era in suchEnglish cities as London and Manches-ter and such U.S. cities as Chicago andNew York were vividly described in thenovels of Charles Dickens, Theodore

Dreiser, Stephen Crane, and others.The images of urban life plagued bychild labor, crime, class tensions, andprostitution were imbedded in Westerncultural consciousness. The large citiesin poor countries today suffer from

many of the same problems, but on amuch larger scale and accompanied byhigh levels of motor vehicle pollution,illicit drug use, and other modern-daymaladies. Preserving decent standards

of living in these teeming cities is a for-midable task for urban planners andmunicipal authorities.

By some measures, populationgrowth appears to have slowed inmegacities in recent decades. The UNestimates that average annual growthrates plummeted in Mexico City be-tween the 1960s and the 1980sfrom5.1 percent to 0.9 percent. Annualpopulation growth rates also slowedconsiderably in the megacities of So

Paulo (from 5.4 percent to 1.9 per-cent), Calcutta, India (2.3 percent to1.8 percent), and Beijing (2.6 percentto 1.8 percent) over the period. Andin cities in more developed countries,annual growth rates fell from 1.3 per-cent to 0.3 percent in New York andfrom 4.1 percent to 1.7 percent inTokyo between the 1960s and 1980s.

Despite the slower pace of growth,cities in less developed countries areadding more new residents each yearnow than in the 1950s and 1960s be-

cause the growth rate is applied to anexpanding population base. The aver-age annual growth rate declined inCairo, over the last 50 years. But Cairoadded 4.6 million to its population be-tween 1975 and 2000, about 1 million

Box 2

Megacities: Decline, Growth, and Changing Locations

The number ofpeople added isa more valuable

guide for urbanplanning thanthe urban

growth rate.

Worlds Largest Megacities, 1970 and 2015

Population (in millions)

1970 2015

1. Tokyo, Japan 16.5 1. Mumbai (Bombay), India 28.22. New York, United States 16.2 2. Tokyo, Japan 26.4

3. Shanghai, China 11.2 3. Lagos, Nigeria 23.2

4. Osaka, Japan 9.4 4. Dhaka, Bangladesh 23.0

5. Mexico City, Mexico 9.1 5. So Paulo, Brazil 20.4

6. London, England 8.6 6. Karachi, Pakistan 19.8

7. Paris, France 8.5 7. Mexico City, Mexico 19.2

8. Buenos Aires, Argentina 8.4 8. Delhi, India 17.8

9. Los Angeles, United States 8.4 9. New York, United States 17.4

10. Beijing, China 8.1 10. Jakarta, Indonesia 17.3



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11

between 1975 and 2000.9Yet urbaniza-tion in most less developed countriestoday differs from the early 20th-cen-tury trends in Europe and the UnitedStates in at least five key respects: It is

taking place at lower levels of econom-ic development; it is more dependenton changes in the international econ-omy; it is based on lower mortalityand higher fertility; it involves manymore people; and governments haveintervened to modify it.10

Urban change in less developedregions is so diverse that it defies gen-eralization. Even so, a look at the com-monalties and dissimilarities amongthese regions provides insight into the

challenges associated with the urbandevelopment and spatial transforma-tion of different regions as they enterthe 21st century.

In much of Asia and Latin America,the new global economybased onthe rapid flow of information and capi-talis blurring urban-rural adminis-trative boundaries. Urban scholarsrefer to this process as mega-urbaniza-tion. Prosperous, interconnectedcities emerging in East and Southeast

Asia increasingly resemble cities in

more than were added between 1950and 1975.

Because most megacities in less de-veloped countries underwent a similarperiod of explosive growth in the

1950s and 1960s followed by a slow-down in rates (but not numbersadded) in the last quarter century, ur-ban policymakers and administratorsoften find that the number of peopleadded to a population is a more valu-able statistic to guide city planningthan growth rates.

The number of megacities is grow-ing rapidly. There were just eightmegacities in 1985, but the numbermore than doubled to 19 by 2000.The UN projects an additional 15new megacities by 2015all in lessdeveloped countries. Just six megaci-ties will be in the more developed

world in 2015the same number asin 1985. These six are: Los Angeles,Moscow, New York, Osaka (Japan),Paris, and Tokyo. In 1970, just four ofthe worlds 10 largest cities were inless developed countries. By 2015,eight of the 10 largest cities will be inless developed counties (see table).

The worlds population has be-

come increasingly concentrated inmegacities. In 1975, less than 2 per-cent of the global population residedin cities of 10 million or more resi-dents. The proportion now exceeds 4percent, and is projected to top 5percent by 2015, when megacities

will house almost 400 million people.Between 1975 and 2000, the growingpopulation concentration in megaci-ties characterized both more and lessdeveloped regions, but future growth

will be concentrated in the cities of

the less developed world.

ReferencesUnited Nations, World UrbanizationProspects: The 1999 Revision(New York:United Nations, 2000); and The AsianDevelopment Bank, The Asian Develop-ment Bank on Asias Megacities, Popula-tion and Development Review23, no. 2 (June1997): 45159.

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975 1995 2015 1975 1995 2015

More developedcountries

Less developedcountries

23 2730

914 21

47 4850

1823

27

3025 20

7363

52

Other urbanCities of1 million+

Rural

Percentofpopulation

Figure 6Percent of Population in Large Cities, Other Urban,and Rural Areas, 1975, 1995, and 2015

Source: Derived from United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision(2000).


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North Americas northeasterncorridor (see Figure 7). High-speed transportation andtelecommunications linksare encompassing cities suchas Manila-Cebu City in thePhilippines, Seoul-Pusan inKorea, Jakarta-Surabaja in

Indonesia, Bangkok-ChiangMai in Thailand, and cities ofGuangdong Province in South-ern China. As the transportationand communications networksspread, rural and small urban areaslocated between cities of this regionface two prospects: being engulfedby city sprawl or being bypassed.11

Although Latin America and theCaribbean already match the urban-ization level of the United States, withthree-quarters of the population liv-ing in cities and towns, the regionsurban landscape resembles that ofmuch-less urbanized Southeast Asia.International economic competitionhas compelled Latin Americas manu-facturing plants to pursue cheaperland and labor in increasingly distantplaces, often beyond metropolitanboundaries. In Mexico City and SoPaulo, Brazil, for example, industrial

plants are as far as 200 kilometersfrom the central cities.12 Urban popu-lations are becoming more geograph-ically dispersed and are encroachingon agricultural land. Despite this ur-ban sprawl, accommodating popula-tion growth in large cities remains apressing concern.

Most cities that contain 2 millionor more residents will likely have toabsorb at least an additional half-mil-lion residents by 2015. Growing eco-

nomic interdependence with theUnited Statesthrough NAFTA(North American Free Trade Agree-ment) in Mexico and new enterprisezones of free trade in the Caribbean,for exampleportends that smallercities may grow in national impor-tance and become more closelylinked with the largest cities, as is hap-pening in Southeast Asia.13

Urban population change in sub-Saharan Africa provides a stark con-

trast to the trends in much of Asia,

the Caribbean, and Latin America. Insub-Saharan Africa, urban change islargely a product of exclusion fromthe global economy. Until recently,most African countries have beendominated by a single city rather than

by a network of cities. Although manyof these cities were small by interna-tional standards, they contained adisproportionate share of their coun-tries wealth. Yet, many sub-SaharanAfrican cities have fallen into a seri-ous state of disrepair since the 1970sunder the strain imposed by rapidpopulation growth, scarce foreign in-vestment, and government misman-agement.14 Progressive decay in basicinfrastructure such as piped water,

electricity, sewerage, and roads have

Santiago

Bogot

Mexico City

Washington, D.C.

Caracas

Buenos Aires

Lima

Belo Horizonte

Fort

Porto Aleg

Re

Rio De Janeiro

Salvador

So Pa

Montreal

Dallas

New YorkBostonChicago

Houston

Los Angeles

PhiladelphiaSan Francisco

Toronto

Medelln

Guatemala City

GuadalajaraMonterrey

Santo Domingo

San Diego

Detroit

12

Manysub-Saharan

African citieshave fallen into

disrepair.

Figure 7The Worlds 100 Largest Cities in 2000,and Selected Other Cities


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prompted people in large Africancities like Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, tomove to unplanned settlements onthe urban periphery where land ischeapest.15 People escaping politicalconflicts in the rural areas and small-

er cities of such countries as Liberiaand Mozambique have contributed tobig-city growth rates exceeding 7 per-cent a year over long periodsa rateat which the population would dou-ble in just 10 years. The projected in-crease of many African cities byseveral million or more people be-tween 1990 and 2015 (see Figure 8,page 14) suggests that problems ofbig cities may worsen in the absenceof sustained economic growth and

political stability.

Another source of concern espe-cially to some international develop-ment and relief organizations is theproliferation of urban villages insub-Saharan Africa. These are once-rural settlements that have bur-

geoned into small cities of 200,000 to400,000 residents, and that typicallylack the most basic requirements fora decent standard of living.

In Central Africa in the 1990s,political conflict generated massiveand rapid population flows that creat-ed another widespread urban form:refugee cities.16 In 1994, for example,ethnic-based violence in Rwandaforced hundreds of thousands of peo-ple from the country within a few

weeks. One refugee camp sprung up

Madras

Pune

St. Petersburg

Mumbai

Casablanca

Athens

Delhi

Tehran

Baghdad

Moscow

Riyadh

Cape Town

Madrid Ankara

Kinshasa

Cairo

Abidjan

Maputo

Lisbon

London

Dhaka

Hong Kong

Pyongyang

Manila

Seoul

Tokyo

Chengdu

Harbin

Shanghai

Xian

Calcutta

Changchun

Singapore

Jakarta

Bangkok

Melbourne

Sydney

Ho Chi Minh City

Naples

Paris

Chittagong

Chongqing

Tianjin

Wuhan

Guangzhou

Alexandria

Berlin

DsseldorfCologne

Essen

Frankfurt

Hyderabad

Bangalore

Bandung

Milan

NagoyaOsaka

Lagos

Lahore

Karachi

Katowice

Inch'onPusan

IstanbulBeijing

Shenyang

Rangoon

AhmedabadHanoi

Dakar

Addis Ababa

Nairobi

Dar es Salaam

Luanda

13

Note: African cities in italics are not among the 100 largest in 2000, but are mentioned in the text orfigures. Cities with an asterisk are national capitals.



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across the border in Tanzania that at-tracted 250,000 inhabitants within a

few days and became Tanzanias sec-ond largest city. These spontaneousurban settlements often are plaguedby food shortages and a high inci-dence of sexual violence. While thenumber of small cities is unknown,the UN anticipates that most urban-ites in Africa in 2015 will still reside incenters with less than 500,000 resi-dents, making urban developmentplanning for small cities a top priority.

The urban challenge facing coun-

tries of South Asiaincluding

Bangladesh, India, and Pakistanis ofunparalleled scale (see Figure 9). In-dia, where one-sixth of the worldspopulation resides, is more than 70percent rural, yet by 2030 the urbanpopulation of India is expected to ap-proximate the combined total popula-tions of the United States, Russia, and

Japan, or more than 600 million. Eventhough large countries of South Asiaare less urbanized than most Africancountries, they already contain manyof the worlds largest urban agglomera-tions, including Calcutta, Delhi, andMumbai (formerly Bombay) in India,Karachi in Pakistan, and Dhaka inBangladeshall with estimated popu-lations of at least 11 million in 2000.The UN projects that these large cities,like Jakarta in Indonesia, each will ab-sorb 5 million or more additional resi-dents in the next 15 years. Cities withhistorically more vibrant economiesand good management, such as Cal-cutta, are more likely to make thistransition successfully than cities with-out these qualities, such as Mumbai.17

South Asian countries also containthousands of small- and medium-sizedtowns and cities, where, in fact, about90 percent of the urban population

will continue to reside in 2015. As inAfrica, the growth of these small ur-ban centers has been fueled less byeconomic dynamism than by high fer-tility levels and by rural poverty thatpropels rural residents to move tocities. Indeed, South Asias urbanpopulation maintains an essentiallyrural character, since most of theseurban centers achieved their designa-tion simply because they incorporatedminor administrative functions,

served as market towns, or formed ajunction of road or rail networks. Theurban population of South Asia isprojected to reach nearly 1 billion by2030. Transforming this populationinto one that is as economicallyadvanced as, for example, SouthAmerica, and that is linked to theinternational economy, will be amajor challenge for the countriesof South Asia.

In most countries of North Africa

and the Near East, urban change14

0 5 10 15 20 25

1965

1990

2015

Population in millions

0.6

1.8

5.1

0.2

1.4

4.3

0.8

3.4

9.4

1.2

7.7

23.2

1.6

0.3

4.9

Lagos,Nigeria

Addis Ababa,Ethiopia

Dar es Salaam,Tanzania

Kinshasa,Congo*

Maputo,Mozambique

Luanda,Angola

Abidjan,C te dIvoire

0.3

1.54.7

0.3

2.2

5.1

Figure 8Population of Selected Large Cities inSub-Saharan Africa, 1965, 1990, and 2015

*Democratic Republic of Congo



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since the 1970s has been related topolitical turmoil and dependence onexports or imports of oil and labor.From 1970 to 1990, net exporters ofoil, such as Kuwait, Libya, Oman,Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UnitedArab Emirates, experienced morerapid urban growth than elsewhere in

the world. In some of these countries,the urban growth rate exceeded 10percent a year, largely because of theinflux of international migrant laborfrom poorer, more populous neigh-boring countries such as Egypt, andfrom Southeast Asian countries suchas the Philippines. A glut in the worldoil market reduced labor demand inmost of these countries in the 1990s,which lowered urban growth rates byroughly one-half. Wars have distortedtrends of urban growth in this regionin the past, and could do so in the fu-ture. The Gulf War in the early 1990s,for example, contributed to an aver-age urban population loss of -4.5 per-cent annually in Kuwait between 1990and 1995. At the same time, thelargest cities in nearby countriesAmman in Jordan and Sanaa inYemen, for exampleexperienced atemporary upward surge in growth as

labor moved out of Kuwait.

Trends in MoreDeveloped RegionsIn almost all more developed coun-tries, the shifting distribution of pop-ulation within urban agglomerations,rather than between urban and ruralareas, is the most significant source

of urban population change. TheUnited States and the countries ofWestern Europe illustrate the phe-nomena of counter-urbanization andreconcentration since the 1970s.Counter-urbanization indicates popu-lation loss in a citys central core andin surrounding suburban rings. Thecity core generally experiences morerapid decline than the rings. Somecountries have recently experiencedreconcentration after a period of

counter-urbanization, a process by

which population increases in the citycore and closer-in suburbs, with themost rapid increase in the core.18

Decentralization, or the movement

of people and jobs away from centralcities toward suburbs of major metro-politan areas, has been the mostprominent feature of urban popula-tion change in the United States sincethe 1960s. In 1950, almost 70 percentof the population of metropolitanareas lived within the boundaries ofcentral cities. By 1990, this figure haddeclined to less than 40 percent.

The flight of more affluent city res-idents to suburbs has been attributed

to numerous social, political, and eco-nomic factors. These factors includeracial tension in cities, superior edu-cational and recreational facilities insuburbs, low government investmentin central-city infrastructure and in-dustry, and the construction of high-ways (which facilitated movementbetween suburban homes and central-city jobs).19 Decentralization has mademany U.S. metropolitan areas moresparsely populated. Between 1970 and

1990, for instance, metropolitan areas 15

0

400

800

1200

1600

410

868

752

744

288

725

633

749

99

58157

124

87

125

180

104

China India Pakistan Indonesia

2000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030

Populationinmillions

UrbanRural

1,278

1,496

1,014

1,383

156

280212

284

Figure 9Projected Urban and Rural Populations, SelectedAsian Countries, 2000 and 2030

Note: Figures within bars may not add to totals because of rounding.



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16

incorporated more land area almostfour times faster than they addedpopulation in a phenomenon knownas urban sprawl.

Since the 1980s, however, subur-banization has slowed, or even re-versed, in some areas. A boomingnational economy in the 1980s and

1990s improved the demographic for-tune of many central cities. Between1980 and 1996, two-thirds of thecountrys 539 central cities experi-enced population growth, a notablecontrast to years of declining popula-tion in central cities.

Suburbs continue to grow morerapidly than central cities in mostU.S. metropolitan areas, but theirshare of metropolitan growth de-clined from more than 95 percent inthe 1970s to 77 percent between 1980and 1996. Between 1990 and 1996, 14of the countrys largest 30 cities con-tinued to lose residents, but moreslowly than in the past. Central De-troit, for instance, lost more than 30percent of its population between1970 and 1990, but lost less than 3percent in the next six years as its un-employment rate shrank from 17 per-cent in 1992 to 7 percent in 1998.

Although some small central citieshave lost significant population num-bers since 1980a 27 percent loss inGary, Ind., for examplesome largerones grew (by 4.4 percent in NewYork City).20

Suburbs, meanwhile, have general-ly become burdened by urban sprawl.Suburban sprawl is characterized by aproliferation of extended low-densitycommercial and residential settle-ments, increased use of private auto-

mobiles, outward expansion of newsubdivisions that leapfrog over ruralor undeveloped land, and segregateduse of land according to activities.

Problems that were once associat-ed with central citiestraffic conges-tion, overcrowded schools, and theloss of recreational opportunities andopen spacehave emerged even innewer suburbs, motivating somedwellers to move to exurbs or therural fringe. Meanwhile, many inner-

ring suburbs that were developed in

the 1950s and 1960s, such as Euclidand Garfield Heights in Cleveland,and Southfield and Oak Park in De-troit, are experiencing more severeproblems, including crime, job loss,and disinvestments. Such older sub-urbs are losing population in manycities. Between 1980 and 1996, the

population of Highland Park, the firstsuburb north of Detroit, declinedfrom 28,000 to less than 20,000.Mekeesport, a suburb of about 30,000southeast of Pittsburgh, lost 25 per-cent of its residents during thesesame years.21

Since at least the 1970s, manycountries in Western Europe, as inthe United States, have experienceddecentralization from their urbancores, a statistical unit comparable tothe U.S. central city.22 Some Europeancountries show a reversal of this pat-tern more recently, but others do not.Between 1971 and 1981, for instance,60 percent of urban core areas lostpopulation to surrounding areas inthe Benelux countries (Belgium,Netherlands, and Luxembourg), asdid 78 percent of urban core areas inGermany and 56 percent in Italy. Butthese percentages declined to 40, 35,

and 17, respectively, in these coun-tries between 1981 and 1991.In the United Kingdom, 89 per-

cent of urban core areas lost popu-lation between 1981 and 1991,continuing a decline that began asearly as the 1960s in cities such asLiverpool, London, and Manchester.Indeed, the UN estimates that centralLondon lost about 850,000 residentsduring the 1970s. Some analysts arguethat land use regulation in the United

Kingdom substantially increased ur-ban land costs and produced a formof concentrated deconcentrationby generating detached high-densityexurbs.23

Most inner cities of Western Eu-rope have not experienced the sameextent of concentrated poverty ashave U.S. cities in recent decades.Most European countries, unlike theUnited States, concentrate fiscal re-sources for cities in the hands of na-

tional rather than local governments,

Suburbshave becomeburdened by

urban sprawl.


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17

which may be better able to maintaininfrastructure, social service provi-sion, and other essential features inthe core areas, even after wealthierresidents move out to the suburbs.

Inner-city poverty in Europemay increase in the coming years,however. The collapse of the Eastern

European bloc, the formation of theEuropean Union, labor immigration,and low fertility among Europeansare making Europes cities more cul-turally heterogeneous than ever.Some ethnic groups may get left be-hind in the race for jobs and housing,exacerbating competition amonggroups and increasing poverty.

Japan exemplifies the most mod-ern form of urban spatial change inthe world, similar to Western Ger-many and to the urban Northeast cor-ridor of the United States. There hasbeen a long-standing proposal,pushed ahead informally by marketforces, to rearrange how Japans capi-tal city functions. This involves linkingTokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya by meansof a high-speed train and advancedtelecommunications. The emergingstructure is a megalopolis that en-compasses more than 40 million resi-

dents and is managed by highlycentralized governing bodies. Thisprocess is creating a new form of me-tropolis that is very different from theconcentric pattern characterizing theoften haphazard development oflarge cities in other more developedcountries.24

Urban

DemographicsPolicymakers and planners needto know how peoples demographicbehaviorchildbearing, moving, dy-ingmakes urban populations grow.Such knowledge allows them to devel-op and implement policies meant toinfluence fertility, mortality, and mi-gration, with the goal of achieving adesired population size. Understand-ing whether urban populations are

growing more from births or in-mi-

grants, for instance, helps plannersanticipate the needs of children andadults in urban and rural areas withrespect to education, housing, em-ployment, and other services.

Closely related to these goalsare requirements for informationon the demographic characteristicsof urban populations, particularlytheir sex, age, and household struc-tures, to provide necessary socialservices such as schooling, healthcare, and shelter. The demographicstructure of urban populations alsoindicates the demand for jobs nowand in the future.

Demographic Sourcesof GrowthUrban populations grow as a result ofnatural increase (when birth rates ex-ceed death rates), net in-migration(when more people move in thanout), and sometimes because of thereclassification of urban boundaries toencompass formerly rural populationsettlements. The contribution of natu-ral increase, net migration, and reclas-

sification of boundaries to urban

Rural women from a Ghanian village walkfour days to take produce to market. Sub-Saharan Africa is the worlds most ruralregion, but urban growth is accelerating.



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18

growth in recent decades can be cal-culated for about one-fourth of theless developed countries.25

Based on the experience of thesecountries, an estimated 60 percent ofurban growth in less developed coun-tries (excluding China) between 1960and 1990 was attributable to natural

increase and 40 percent to in-migra-tion from rural areas and the expan-sion of urban boundaries. As fertilitylevels decline and economic develop-ment increases, however, migrationapparently assumes a greater role indetermining the pace of urbangrowth. In Africa, for example, wherefertility levels remain high andeconomies are weak, natural increasefueled 75 percent of urban growth,compared with 51 percent in Asia,where most countries have lower fer-tility levels and stronger economies.

In China, which has experiencedrapid economic growth in recentdecades, only 28 percent of urbangrowth in the 1980s resulted fromnatural increase. Socioeconomic fac-tors, including a shortage of housingand high levels of female labor forceparticipation in Chinas cities andtowns, have contributed to lower ur-

ban than rural fertility. Chinas one-child-policy has been more strictlyenforced in urban than in rural areas,which also kept urban birth rates low-er than rural rates. The higher ruralfertility contributes to urban growthby adding to the large volume of po-tential rural migrants in this popu-lous, and still largely rural, country.

The demographic dynamics under-lying urban growth are extremelycomplex, and analyses based on cen-

sus data often miss such importantfactors as circular migration, andless direct or long-term effects ofmigration. Throughout SoutheastAsia and sub-Saharan Africa, and inselected countries elsewhere, millionsof people move back and forth be-tween urban and rural places to takeadvantage of income-earning oppor-tunitiesa phenomenon known ascircular migration. These temporarymigrants, who are more commonly

men in Africa and women in many

countries of Asia and Latin America,often fill niches in particular occupa-tions in the manufacturing and serv-ice sectors. They often work inconstruction in southern China, forexample, and domestic service incountries of Latin America.26 Circularmigration is often tied to seasonal

patterns or agricultural cycles.Temporary migrants can cause

large swings in population size. Insome cities of China, for instance,temporary migrants are estimatedto count for between one-fifth andone-third of the total population.27

In Thailand, thousands of peoplemove to Bangkok from the agri-cultural north and northeast areasduring the dry season when thereare fewer jobs in these regions, andreturn during the wet season whenwork is more plentiful. In the early1990s, Bangkoks population ofroughly 8 million was about 10percent larger during the monthsof the dry season in north and north-eastern Thailand than during thewet season.28 In many countries, suchtemporary migrants are counted asrural residents if they spend mostof the year in rural areas, if they

have not lived in an urban area longenough to qualify as urban residents,or for other reasons. Official statisticsthus tend to underestimate the actualcontribution of migration to urbangrowth.

Rural migrants also contributeto urban growth when they havechildren and add to natural increase.Net in-migration to urban areas canultimately depress urban growth, how-ever, once the national level of urban-

ization is relatively high and there arefewer potential migrants to movefrom rural to urban areas than inthe opposite direction.29

These difficulties in accuratelymeasuring the effects of fertilitylevels and migration patterns onurban growth suggest that policiesto modify urban or city growth bycontrolling fertility or in-migrationmust be implemented with caution,and in consideration of their long-

term consequences.

Temporarymigrants can

cause large

swings inpopulationsize.


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19

DemographicCharacteristics ofUrban PopulationsInformation on the demographiccharacteristics of urban populationsthroughout the less developed worldhas become widely available since1990, thanks to Demographic and

Health Surveys (DHS) sponsored bythe U.S. Agency for International De-velopment. This new information onpopulation sex compositions, age pro-files, household structures, and othercharacteristics provides valuable in-sights into the special needs of urbanpopulations relative to rural popula-tions and the potential consequencesof the urban and rural differences forless developed countries and theircities.

Rural-to-urban migration is a selec-tive process; people with certain char-acteristics are more likely to movethan people with other characteristics.In many less developed countries theselectivity of migration distorts the sexratiothe number of males per 100femalesin both destination and ori-gin areas depending on whether rural-to-urban migrants are predominantlymale or female. Sex selectivity of rural-

urban migration may change overtime as urban job opportunities forwomen increase or decrease relativeto opportunities for men. Familynorms regarding the migration ofwomen can also change and influencethe sex ratio of migration flows.

If migration were not sex-selectiveif men were as likely to migrate aswomensex ratios would be aboutthe same in urban and rural areas ofa country. With no significant migra-

tion or unusual circumstances (suchas high levels of female infanticide orunderreporting of female householdmembers), the overall sex ratio is usu-ally slightly below 100 because womengenerally outlive men and outnumberthem in older ages.

Sex ratios differ between urbanand rural areas in many parts of theworld (see Table 1). Compared withrural populations, urban populationsin sub-Saharan Africa are heavily

skewed toward men because there are

more job opportunities available tomen in urban areas, while womenperform much of the agricultural la-bor in rural areas. Also, people insome sub-Saharan countries follow acenturies-old cultural dictate thatyoung men should leave the villagewhen they reach a certain age.30 Somedemographers cite the excess ofmales in African cities as the driving

force behind the HIV/AIDS epidemicin the region.31

In Latin America and theCaribbean, Southeast Asia, and lessdeveloped countries of the formerSoviet Union, urban populations in-clude a higher number of womenthan men, and thus a lower sex ratio.In Latin America, this imbalance re-sults from greater urban job opportu-nities in domestic and other servicesfor women than men. In Southeast

Asia, the lower sex ratios result fromthe concentration in urban areas ofexport-oriented manufacturing jobsthat use low-skilled and low-wage fe-male assembly workers. Young femalelaborers in urban areas of Latin Amer-ica and Southeast Asia often sendmoney back to their families in ruralareas. These women also tend to suf-fer from a high prevalence of sexualabuse. In India and Pakistan, sex ra-tios indicate more men than women

in both rural and urban areas. These

Table 1Sex Ratio of Urban and Rural Populations,Selected Countries, 1990 to 1998

Sex ratio (males per 100 females)

Region Country/year Urban Rural

North Africa Morocco, 1992 96.7 94.2

Sub-Saharan Africa Burkina Faso, 1992-93 104.9 92.3Kenya, 1998 107.9 93.2

Malawi, 1996 106.3 89.2

South Asia India, 1992-93 107.3 103.5

Pakistan, 1990-91 105.5 109.6

Southeast Asia Philippines, 1998 94.4 103.3

Near East Jordan, 1997 102.3 104.1

Central Asia Uzbekistan, 1996 94.5 104.1

Caribbean Dominican Rep., 1991 87.2 113.4

Central America Guatemala, 1995 91.8 96.3

South America Brazil, 1996 91.6 105.1

Source: Macro International, Inc., Demographic and Health Surveys.


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unusually high ratios reflect culturalpreferences for sons that sometimeslead families to fail to report femalehousehold members, to neglect thehealth of daughters (causing prema-ture deaths), to abort female fetuses,or even to promulgate femaleinfanticide.32

The reasons behind the relativelylow sex ratio in urban areas of theformer Soviet republics in CentralAsia are unknown, but the largernumber of women may reflect theunusually high mortality rates formiddle-aged men found in Russia,Ukraine, and other countries of theformer Soviet Union.

In general, urban populationsthroughout the less developed worldhave smaller proportions of the very

young and the very old than ruralpopulations. In Ghana, for example,about 15 percent of the urban popu-lation was under age 5 in the 1990s,compared with nearly 19 percent ofthe rural population (see Table 2).The smaller share of the young andelderly in urban populations can belargely attributed to lower urban thanrural fertility.33

These age differences also reflectthe high proportion of young adults

among rural-urban migrants. Because

most people move to take advantageof economic opportunities, and be-cause younger adults find it easier tomove than older adults, youngerworking-age people usually make up alarge share of migrants. Fertility de-clines and migration usually push upthe working-age share of the urban

population. The number of personsages 15 to 64 is usually 5 percent to10 percent greater in urban than inrural areas of less developed coun-tries, which creates greater demandfor jobs in towns and cities. Theprime working ages are also theprime childbearing ages, and thelarge percentage of young adults inurban areas means a similarly largeneed for reproductive health, familyplanning, and education services. Inthe many countries where fertilitylevels remain high and mortality hasdeclined, the disproportionate con-centration of urban populations inchildbearing ages helps ensure con-tinued growth regardless of the paceof in-migration.

Although fertility is lower in urbanthan in rural areas, and many mi-grants are separated from their ex-tended families, urban households

are not significantly smaller than ru-ral households in most developed re-gions (see Table 3). Indeed, urbanpopulations have a higher mean num-ber of household members than dorural populations in some countries.Although urban life is thought to bemore conducive to nuclear familyhouseholds and to the breakdown ofextended family living arrangements,housing shortagesexacerbated insome cities by a large volume of tem-

porary migrantsand high land costsnear the central business districts of-ten result in large households.

In many poor countries, such asthose in sub-Saharan Africa, kinshipnetworks enable urban migrants tolive with distant relatives, even thoughdwelling units become extremelycrowded, taxing the supply of waterand other household infrastructuresand eliminating privacy.34 Householdsin less developed regions are likely to

remain large in cities where there is

Women in Bangalore, India, attend classes to improve their job choices. Thesex ratio of rural-to-urban migrants can vary depending on whether thereare more jobs for women or men in an urban area.



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rapid population growth but minimaleconomic growth because populationgrowth will continue to outstrip thehousing supply.

Urban Challengesof Less DevelopedCountriesUrban population change is takingdifferent forms throughout the worldand has different potential conse-quences for less and more developedcountries. But poverty is one of themost critical issues facing urban areasin all countries. Successful manage-ment of urban areasincludingmanaging the public health, the envi-ronment, political stability, and publicsafety for diverse populationswilldepend in part on whether urbanpoverty is reduced. While some urbanpoverty originates in rural areas andis transported to towns and cities viarural-urban migration, much of it isgrounded in urban life and is passeddown from generation to generationof urban residents.

Urban PovertyIn the near future it is plausible thatmost of the worlds poor people willlive in urban areas. In the more devel-oped world, poverty is already concen-trated in urban areas, despite highermedian incomes in urban than rurallocales. This situation exists in part be-cause more than 75 percent of thepopulation in more developed coun-tries lives in urban areas.

Assessment of urban poverty in lessdeveloped countries is plagued by con-ceptual and measurement problems.Some scholars consider the distinctionbetween urban and rural povertyas artificial given the close linkagesbetween rural and urban areas in low-income countries. Seasonal labor mi-gration moves people back and forthbetween city and countryside, while re-mittances from rural migrants workingin urban areas to their families trans-

fer income from one locale to the oth-

er (see Box 3, page 22).35 Estimates ofurban poverty levels also depend onwhether poverty is defined by an in-come threshold (as the World Bankdoes), by whether basic human needsare met, or by self-identification(through which people identify them-selves as poor or not poor). The defi-nition of poverty is likely to bedifferent for more and less developedcountries. In more developed coun-

tries, for example, virtually all urban

Table 2Percent of Population Under Age 5 and Age 65 orOlder in Urban and Rural Areas, Selected Countries,1992 to 1998

Ages

Under age 5 65 or older

Region Country/year Urban Rural Urban Rural

North Africa Egypt, 1995 11.1 14.1 3.6 3.9

Sub-Saharan Africa Ghana, 1998 11.7 16.1 4.1 5.1

Benin, 1996 15.7 19.3 3.3 4.8

Namibia, 1992 13.4 17.6 4.0 7.1

South Asia Bangladesh, 1996-97 10.2 13.2 2.8 4.0

Nepal, 1996 12.2 16.3 3.8 3.8

Southeast Asia Indonesia, 1997 9.9 11.2 4.3 4.8

Near East Yemen, 1997 14.8 16.9 3.2 4.1

Central Asia Kazakstan, 1995 7.2 11.9 8.3 5.6

Caribbean Haiti, 1994-95 12.0 16.0 3.7 6.2

Central America Nicaragua, 1998 12.3 16.3 4.2 3.7

South America Bolivia, 1998 12.3 16.1 4.7 7.1


Table 3Average Household Size in Urban and Rural Areas,Selected Countries, 1990 to 1998

Region Country/year Urban Rural

North Africa Egypt, 1995 4.6 6.0

Sub-Saharan Africa Central African Rep., 1994-95 5.8 4.4Niger, 1998 6.2 5.8

Zambia, 1995-96 5.7 5.2

South Asia Bangladesh, 1996-97 5.3 5.3

Pakistan, 1990-91 7.2 6.5

Near East Yemen, 1997 7.2 6.9

Central Asia Kazakstan, 1995 3.1 4.7

Caribbean Dominican Rep., 1991 4.5 4.8

Central America Nicaragua, 1998 5.3 5.9

South America Peru, 1994 5.3 5.2


Mean number ofhousehold members


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Box 3

Urban Poverty Projects: Global and Local Initiatives

Until the 1990s, urban poverty reduction programsof major international development organizationshad limited success. The World Bank launched thelargest development programs in less developedcountries in the past quarter century. The Bank in-creased its annual funding for alleviating urbanpoverty from $10 million in 1972 to more than $2billion in 1988. Sixty percent of the Banks urbanlending during this period went to shelter opera-tions or slum upgrading projects. These initiativesare mainly housing projects in which people areprovided with land for building homes and aid forimproving neighborhood infrastructure such as wa-ter and sewerage systems. Both types of projects relyheavily on self-help schemes.

The World Banks urban poverty projects in the1970s and 1980s tended to benefit people in the

middle rather than the lower part of the urban in-come distribution, and they had little influence onthe overall urban policies of recipient countries. Inthe 1990s, the Banks Urban Management Programattempted to broaden its impact on urban povertyby striving to reach the poorest of the poor in citiesand, at the same time, working toward better urbanadministration, more efficient land markets, a clean-er environment, and other conditions that indirectlyaffect the urban poor.

In the late 1990s, the Bank launched two notableurban poverty projects in collaboration with theUnited Nations Center for Human Settlements

(UNCHS) and other UN bodies, governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and local au-thorities. The two projects are Cities Without Slumsand The Cities Alliance. Cities Without Slums aimsby 2020 to improve the lives of 100 million slumdwellers throughout the less developed world. Theproject upgrades living conditions in slum neighbor-hoods through such means as supporting small-scaleenterprises and targeting health care and education-al opportunities to the poor.

The Cities Alliance project focuses on policychanges that would improve living conditions of

the urban poor. The program, for example, assistslocal authorities in outlining viable financing andinvestment plans, supports city-based consensus-building among diverse constituencies, and enablescities to share lessons learned in formulating andimplementing development strategies. The cities,goals, and urban sectors (such as departments ofplanning, health, or education) of these projectsare sometimes chosen by local and national authori-ties, other times by international agencies, but proj-ect implementation involves close coordination

among many levels of government and other privateand public organizations.

Local urban poverty-reduction projects led bycommunity-based organizations and small NGOs areproviding valuable lessons for major donor agen-cies. They emphasize, for example, the importanceof empowering low-income households in decision-making. The National Slum Dwellers Federation inMumbai India, (formerly Bombay), and the South

African Homeless Peoples Federation in CapeTown, for example, have savings and credit groupsof low-income people, mainly women, that enablethem to fund their own housing. Group membersdevelop their own house designsfirst as drawings,then cardboard models, then life-size models.

Communities are encouraged to find creativeways to cut costs. Members of the Orangi Pilot Pro-

ject in a slum of Karachi, Pakistan, and of the BarrioSan Jorge program in Buenos Aires, Argentina, keptdown the construction costs of sewers and drains byorganizing and managing the construction them-selves. The Casa Melhor and Multiro programs inFortaleza, Brazil, organized low-income householdsinto a formal peoples movement that could chan-nel concerns to donor organizations.

Antipoverty programs of international agenciestypically operate under cost constraints, a need toshow immediate benefits, complex bureaucraticstructures, and government inertia or resistance.Given such conditions, an expansion of innovative

community-led programs will be necessary to helpthe growing numbers of urban poor in less devel-oped countries in coming years. Funding from gov-ernments and external donors is required to startmany poverty alleviation projects, but communityself-financing through credit, cost recovery, andother schemes has proved to be a viable approach.

ReferencesWorld Bank, The Cities Alliance: A Global Partnership Designedto Achieve the Promise of Well-Managed Cities. Accessed onlineat: www.worldbank.org/html/ fpd/urban/citiesallience/

citiesall.htm, on March 13, 2000; J. Anzorena, J. Bolnick, S.Boonyabancha, Y. Cabannes, A. Hardoy, A. Hasan, C. Levy,D. Mitlin, D. Murphy, S. Patel, M. Saborido, D. Satterth-

waite, and A. Stein, Reducing Urban Poverty: SomeLessons from Experience,Environment and Urbanization10, no. 1 (April 1998): 167-86; Aktar A. Badshah, Our Ur-ban Future: New Paradigms for Equity and Sustainability(Lon-don: Zed Books, 1996); and Gavin A. Jones and Peter M.

Ward, The World Banks New Urban Management Pro-grammeParadigm Shift or Policy Continuity? HabitatInternational18, no. 3 (1994).


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residents have access to the most basicamenities, such as safe drinking water,and poverty is defined in more rela-tive terms.

Even by conservative standards, ur-ban poverty in the less developedworld is high and is growing rapidly.The World Bank estimated that in

1985 there were 330 million urbanpoor people in the less developedcountries, using an income cut-off ofUS$370 per year. The Bank estimatesthat in 1994 roughly 450 million ur-ban dwellersor 25 percent of theless developed worlds 1994 urbanpopulationlacked access even to thesimplest latrines. The United NationsPopulation Fund concluded in 1996that 28 percent of urbanites in lessdeveloped countries were living inpoverty, including 41 percent in sub-Saharan Africa alone.36

Yet these estimates may be too low(see Box 4, page 24). The WorldHealth Organization (WHO) and theUN Center for Human Settlementshave endorsed a 1990 estimate basedon dozens of national and city studiesthat 600 million urban dwellersor42 percent of the 1990 urban popula-tionlive in life and health threaten-

ing homes or neighborhoods.

37

Urban poverty appears to be in-creasing in less developed countries.In Latin America, for example, urbanareas contained 36 percent of that re-gions poor in 1970, but 60 percent in1990, even though the pace of urban-ization was considerably slower dur-ing this period. The World Bank nowconcedes as well that by 2025, the ma-jority of the worlds urban populationwill be living in poverty.38

Because they lack reliable incomedata from many poor countries, de-mographers frequently use proxy in-dicators of income, such as access tobasic amenities including water, shel-ter, and electricity, to measure pover-ty.39 Demographic and Health Surveysconducted in the 1990s reveal enor-mous variation among countries andregions, for instance, in the availabili-ty of piped drinking water in urbandwellings (see Table 4, page 25). In

sub-Saharan Africa, urban residents in

Namibia are comparatively well off,but less than 20 percent of urbanhouseholds have piped drinking waterin many other countries of the region,underscoring the widespread urbanpoverty. In some countries of Southand Southeast Asia most urban house-holds do not have immediate access to

drinking water. By contrast, at least 50percent of urban households havepiped water in many countries of theNear East/North Africa, the formerSoviet republics in Central Asia, andmost countries of Latin America andthe Caribbean.

Public and ReproductiveHealthIn most less developed countries, lev-els of mortality and disease are lowerin urban than in rural areas. General-ly, life expectancies began to increasein urban centers after World War IIwith the introduction of modernhealth services and sanitation systemsin cities. In rural areas, better healthand longer life are more recent devel-opments and stem from mass immu-nization programs, improved accessto preventive and curative health

treatment, and other interventions ofgovernments and international organ-izations since the 1970s.

The urban health advantage,however, masks enormous disparitiesbetween the urban poor and theirmore affluent neighbors. A studyin Bangladesh in 1990, for example,found that in three low-income ur-ban areas between 95 and 152 in-fants per 1,000 live births diedbefore the age of 1; in a middle-class

area, 32 of 1,000 births died. Infantmortality in the urban slums, in fact,was higher than in rural Bangladesh.In Porto Alegre, Brazil, the infantmortality rate in the early 1990s var-ied from more than 60 deaths per1,000 live births in the citys poorestdistricts to less than 5 in the wealthi-est. Research in Quito, Ecuador, un-covered infant mortality rates of 129within families of manual workers insquatter settlements and 5 in upper-

class districts.40

Innovativecommunity-led

programs will be

necessary to helpthe urban poor.


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Diseases of poverty, such as malnu-

trition, may be increasing in urbanareas. A 1999 study of the 16 coun-tries on the WHO Global Database onChild Growth and Malnutrition foundthat the number of underweight chil-dren was increasing at a faster rate inurban areas than in rural areas.41

Yet it is not just the poor whoexperience health deprivations in ur-ban areas. The WHO emphasizes thatall urban dwellers in less developedcountries, unlike rural residents, are

exposed to the double burden of dis-

ease. The first burden is traditional

scourges associated with living in apoor country, such as malnutrition,measles, and malaria. The second bur-den is afflictions resulting from newlymodernizing societies, such as obesity,cancer, and road accidents.42 More re-cently, a third dimension has beenadded: the deterioration of mentalhealth and increased rates of psychi-atric disorders and deviant behaviorthat are associated with degraded liv-ing conditions, overcrowding, and

rapid social and cultural change in ur-

The United Nations (UN) hasconvened two global conferenceson human settlements: Habitat Iin Vancouver, Canada, in 1976,and Habitat II in Istanbul, Turkey,

in 1996. The conferences repre-sent the evolution of thoughtamong governments and interna-tional development agencies re-garding the less developed worldssettlement problems. The focusshifted from rural areas in the1970s to urban places in the1990s. Indeed, Habitat II wasofficially dubbed The City Sum-mit by its organizer, the UNCenter for Human Settlements.The conferences also illustratethe reorientation of strategy insolving local settlement problems,from a government-led approachto the current perspective ofpartnerships among the publicand private sectors and localcommunities.

The 1976 Vancouver Declara-tion on Human Settlements notedthat it is of paramount impor-tance that national and interna-tional efforts give priority to

improving the rural habitat. Thisemphasis stemmed from ruralbackwardness which compels alarge majority of mankind to liveat the lowest standards of living,and rural dispersion exemplifiedby small scattered settlements andisolated homesteads which inhibit

the provision of infrastructureand services.

Twenty years later, when a largemajority of people no longer livedin rural areas, an overriding theme

of Habitat II was sustainable hu-man settlements development inan urbanizing world. Reachingpeople in isolated homesteads wasno longer the top priority. TheIstanbul Declaration on HumanSettlements noted a tendency to-

wards excessive population con-centration in cities and urgedgovernments to minimize rural-to-urban migration. The introduc-tion to the Habitat II Agenda byBoutros Boutros-Ghali, then UNSecretary-General, put govern-ments consensus of spatial con-cerns clearly: The mass exodus tocities has led to sharpened urbanpoverty, scarcity of housing and ba-sic services, unemployment andunderemployment, ethnic tensionsand violence, substance abuse,crime and social disintegration.

The 1976 declaration statedthat adequate shelter and serv-ices are a basic human right which

places an obligation on Govern-ments to ensure their attainmentby all people, beginning with di-rect assistance to the least advan-taged. The 1996 declaration,

while reaffirming a right to ade-quate housing, also recognizedthe more than one billion people

living in absolute poverty. The re-liance on government is now con-sidered a flawed approach to meetbasic needs, particularly in cities

where the costs of amenities are

much higher than in rural areas.Rather, the 1996 conference com-mitted to expanding the supplyof affordable housing by enablingmarkets to perform efficiently.This involves increased govern-ment cooperatio

an urbanizing world

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