an introduction to discrete-event simulation · discrete-event stochastic systems i finite or...
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AN INTRODUCTION TODISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION
Peter W. Glynn1 Peter J. Haas2
1Dept. of Management Science and EngineeringStanford University
2IBM Almaden Research CenterSan Jose, CA
IMA Workshop, May 12, 2008
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CAVEAT: WE ARE NOT BIOLOGISTS OR CHEMISTS!
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Outline
I Overview of discrete-event simulationI Basic models for discrete-event stochastic systems
I Generalized semi-Markov processes (GSMPs)I Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs)I Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs)
I Some important techniques for simulationI Efficiency improvementI Sensitivity estimationI Parallel simulation
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Part I
Overview
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Discrete-Event Stochastic Systems
I Finite or countably infinite set of statesI System changes state when events occur
I Stochastic state changesI At strictly increasing random times
I Underlying stochastic process {X (t) : t ≥ 0 }I X (t) = state of system at time t (a random variable)
I Ex: Xi (t) = # molecules of ith species at time t
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Simulation: A Tool for Studying DESS Characteristics
I Characteristics often of the form α = E [Y ]I Y = f
(X (t)
), e.g., Y = I (X (t) = x)
I Y = (1/t)∫ t
0f(X (u)
)du
I Y = min{ t > 0: X (t) ∈ A }
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Other Characteristics
I Nonlinear functions of means: g(α1, α2, . . . , αk)I Apply Delta Method, jackknifing, bootstrapping, etc.
I Steady-state characteristicsI Time-average limits:
α = limt→∞
1
t
∫ t
0
f(X (u)
)du
I Steady-state means:
α = E [f (X )], where X (t)⇒ X
I Apply regenerative method, batch means, STS methods, etc.I Key issues of stability and validity
I For more details: buy us a beer
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Part II
Models for Discrete-Event Systems
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Generalized Semi-Markov Processes
I Classical model for discrete-event stochastic systemsI Building blocks
I S = set of states (finite or countably infinite)I E = set of events (finite)I E (s) = active events in state sI p(s ′; s, e∗) = state-transition probability
I One clock per event: records remaining time until occurrence
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Clocks (Event Scheduling)
I Active events compete to trigger state transitionI The clock that runs down to 0 first is the “winner”I Can have simultaneous event occurrence: p(s ′; s,E∗)
I At a state transition se∗→ s ′: three kinds of events
I New events: Clock for e′ set according to F (x ; s ′, e′, s, e∗)I Old events: Clocks continue to run downI Cancelled events: Clock readings are discarded
I Clocks run down at state-dependent speeds r(s, e)
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The GSMP Process
I The continuous-time process: {X (t) : t ≥ 0 }I X (t) = the state at time tI A very complicated process
I Defined in terms of Markov chain { (Sn,Cn) : n ≥ 0 }I System observed after the nth state transitionI Sn = the stateI Cn = (Cn,1, . . . ,Cn,M) = the clock-reading vectorI Chain defined via GSMP building blocks
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Definition of the GSMP
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Generation of the GSSMC { (Sn, Cn) : n ≥ 0 }
1. [Initialization] Set n = 0. Generate state S0 and clockreadings C0,i for ei ∈ E (S0); set C0,i = −1 for ei 6∈ E (S0).
2. Determine holding time t∗(Sn,Cn) and trigger event e∗n .
3. Generate new state Sn+1 according to p( · ;Sn, e∗n).
4. Set clock-reading Cn+1,i for each new event ei according toF ( · ;Sn+1, ei ,Sn, e
∗n).
5. Set clock-reading Cn+1,i for each old event ei asCn+1,i = Cn,i − t∗(Sn,Cn)r(Sn, ei ).
6. Set clock-reading Cn+1,i equal to −1 for each cancelled eventei .
7. Set n← n + 1 and go to Step 2.
Can compute GSMP {X (t) : t ≥ 0 } from GSSMC
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Implementation Considerations for Large-Scale GSMPs
I Use event lists (e.g., heaps) to determine e∗
I O(1) computation of e∗
I O(log m
)update time, where m = # of active events
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Continuous-Time Markov Chains
I Time-homogeneous Markov property:
P{
X (t + h) = s ′ | X (t) = s,X (u) = x(u) for 0 ≤ u < t}
= P{
X (t + h) = s ′ | X (t) = s}
= ph(s, s′)
I CTMC specified by intensity matrix Q
Q(s, s ′) = limh↓0
ph(s, s′)
h, s 6= s ′
Q(s, s) = −∑s′ 6=s
Q(s, s ′)
I Define state intensity q(s) = −Q(s, s) =∑
s′ 6=s Q(s, s ′)
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Simulating a CTMC (Gillespie Algorithm)
I Thm (path structure of a CTMC):I Sequence of visited states is a DTMCI Given states, holding times are indep. and exponential
1. [Initialization] Set n = 0. Generate state S0.
2. Generate holding time t∗(Sn) as Exponential(q(Sn)
).
3. Generate next state Sn+1 (6= Sn) according to Q(Sn, · )/q(Sn).
4. Set n← n + 1 and go to Step 2.
I A CTMC can be viewed as a GSMP with one exponentialclock!
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CTMCs and GSMPs
I Theorem: Let {X (t) : t ≥ 0 } be a GSMP such that
F (x ; s ′, e ′, s, e∗) ≡ 1− e−λ(e′)x for each e ′
Then {X (t) : t ≥ 0 } is a CTMC with intensity matrix
Q(s, s ′) =∑
e∈E(s)
λ(e)r(s, e)p(s ′; s, e), s ′ 6= s
I Under conditions of theorem, GSMP simulation algorithm cansimplify to CTMC algorithm!
I OR can simulate CTMC using one exponential clock per eventI GSMPs with unit exponential clocks and time-varying speeds
I Glasserman (1991, Ch. 6): hazard-rate constructionI Anderson (2007): application to chemical reaction systems
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Stochastic Petri Nets
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Stochastic Petri Nets
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Stochastic Petri Nets
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Stochastic Petri Nets
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Stochastic Petri Nets
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Stochastic Petri Nets
s = (2, 1, 1)
d1 d2
d3
I D = finite set of places
I E = finite set of transitions (timed and immediate)
I marking = assignment of token counts to places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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Transition Firing
p(s ′; s, e∗)
I The marking changes when an enabled transition fires
I Removes 1 token per place from random subset of input places
I Deposits 1 token per place in random subset of output places
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SPNs and GSMPs
I SPN marking = GSMP state
I SPN transition firing = GSMP event occurrenceI Differences
I SPN has specific form of stateI SPN has restrictions on allowable state transitionsI SPN has immediate transitions
I SPN and GSMP have same modeling power
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Bottom-Up and Top-Down Modeling
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Other Modeling Features
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:Synchronization:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:Synchronization:
Precedence:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:Synchronization:
Precedence:Precedence:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:Synchronization:
Precedence:Precedence:Precedence:
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Other Modeling Features
Concurrency: Synchronization:Synchronization:
Precedence:Precedence:Precedence: Priority:
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Implementation Advantages for Large-Scale SPNs
I Updating the state is often simpler in an SPN than a GSMPI Efficient techniques for event scheduling [Chiola91]
I Encode transitions potentially affected by firing of ei
I Parallel simulation of subnetsI E.g., Adaptive Time Warp [Ferscha & Richter PNPM97]I Guardedly optimisticI Slows down local firings based on history of rollbacks
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For Further Details:
I Asmussen and Glynn: Stochastic Simulation: Algorithms andAnalysis, Springer, 2007
I MS-level lecture notes:http://eeclass.stanford.edu/msande223/
I Haas: Stochastic Petri Nets: Modelling, Stability, Simulation,Springer, 2002
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