an illustrated guide to the science of global warming impacts

7/28/2019 An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts

1/19

Humanitys Choice (via M.I.T.): Inaction (No Policy) eliminates most of the uncertainty about

whether future warming will be catastrophic. Aggressive emissions reductions greatly improves

humanitys chances.

In this post, I will summarize what the recent scientific literature says are the key impacts we face in the coming

decades if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. These include:

Staggeringly hi gh temperature ri se, especiall y over land some 10F over much of the United States

Permanent Dust Bowl condi tions over the U.S. Southwest and many other regions around the globe that

are heavily populated and/or heavil y farmed.

Sea level ri se of some 1 foot by 2050, then 4 to 6 feet (or more) by 2100, risi ng some 6 to 12 inches (or

more) each decade thereafter

Mass ive species loss on land and sea perhaps 50% or more of all biodiversi ty.

Unexpected i mpacts the fearsome unknown unknowns

An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts:

How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces

By Joe Romm on Oct 14, 2012 at 12:30 pm

CLIMATE PROGRESS

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Much more extreme weather

Food insecurity the increasing di fficulty of feeding 7 bill ion, then 8 bi ll ion, and then 9 bi ll ion people

in a world with an ever-worsening climate.

Myriad di rect heal th impacts

Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade . Equall y tragic, a

2009 NOAA-led study found the worst impacts would be largely irreversible for 1000 years.

The single biggest failure of messaging by climate scientists (until very recently) has been the failure to explain

to the public, opinion makers, and the media that business-as -usual warming resul ts in si multaneous, ever-

worsening impacts that, indivi duall y, are each beyond catastrophic, but combined are unimaginabll y horrifi c.

For these impacts, terms like global warming and climate change are essentially euphemisms. That is why I

have preferred the term Hell and High Water.

By virtue of their success in promoting doubt and inaction, the climate science deniers and disinformers have,

tragically and ironically, turned the worst-case scenario into business as usual.

Business as usual typical ly means continuing at recent growth rates of ca rbon dioxide emis si ons, which we

now know would likely take us to atmospheric concentrations of CO2 greater than 850 ppm if not above 1000

ppm (see U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: Recent observations confirm the

worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories a re being realis ed). Annual emis si ons now exceed 10 bi ll ion metric tons

of carbon (~37 billions metric tons of CO2). Emissions have been rising about 3% per year for the past decade.

What is less well understood is that even a very strong mitigation effort that kept carbon emissions this century

to 11 bill ion tons a year on average would still probably take us to 1000 ppm (A1FI scenario) a l ittle noted

conclusion of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (see Nature publishes my

climate analysi s a nd solution).

Until recently, the scientific community has spent little time modeling the impacts of a tripling (~830 ppm) orquadrupli ng (~1100 ppm) carbon dioxide concentrations from preindustria l levels . In part, I think, thats

because they never believed humanity would be so self-destructive as to ignore their science-based warnings

and s imply continue on its unsustainable path. In part, they lowbal led the difficul t-to-model amplifying

feedbacks in the carbon cycle.

So I pieced together those impacts from avail able studies and from discuss ions with leading cli mate scientists

for my 2006 book, Hell and High Water. But now the scientific literature on what we face is much richer as

cli mate scientists have sobered up to their painful role as modern-day Cassandras (see Lonnie Thompson on

why climatologists are speaking out: Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and

present danger to civilization).

In a 2010 AAAS presentation, the late William R. Freudenburg of UC Santa Barbara discussed his research on

the Asymmetry of Scientifi c Chall enge: New scientific findings since the 2007 IPCC report are found to be more

than twenty times as likely to indicate that global climate disruption is worse than previously expected, rather

than not as bad as previously expected.

This post will review the latest findi ngs. It will serve as a foundation for a multi-part series that attempts to

clear up some of the confusion over the supposed high degree of uncertainty surrounding climate impacts.

That series wil l make clear that we have an unusually high degree of certainty around future climate impacts if

we stay anywhere near our current emissions path.2
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This post an update covers more than 60 recent scientific studies along with numerous review pieces that

themselves each cover a large segment of the recent li terature. Please add l inks to more studies in the

comments.

We will see why inaction on climate change is incompatible with organized global community, is likely to be

beyond adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable

(i.e. 4C [7F] would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level), according

to Professor Kevin Anderson, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change in Britain (see here).

TEMPERATURE

Three of the best recent anal yses of what we are headed towards can be found here:

M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10F with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20F

Hadley Center: Catastrophic 5-7C warming by 2100 on current emissions path

Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11F

warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90F some 120 days a year and that

is nt the worst case, its business as us ual!

As Dr. Vicky Pope, Head of Cli mate Change Advice for the Met Offices Hadley Centre has explained:

where no action is taken to check the rise in Greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures

would most likely rise by more than 5C by the end of the century. This would lead to

si gnificant ris ks of severe and irreversi ble impacts.

That likely ris e corresponds to roughly 9F global ly and typica ll y 40% higher than that over inland mid-

latitudes (i.e. much of this country) or well over 10F.

[Note: The MIT rise is compared to 1980-1999 levels -- see studyhere). So you can add at least 0.5 C and 1.0F for

comparison with pre-industrial temperatures.]

Many other highly credible bodies share this conclusi on, including the once-staid and conservative

International Energy Agency (see IEAs Bombshell Warning: Were Headed Toward 11F Global Warming and

Delaying Action Is a False Economy).

Based on two studies in the last few years:

By centurys end, extreme temperatures of up to 122F would threaten most of the central,

southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience

temperatures exceeding 98F for some 60 days a year.Much of Arizona would be subjected to

temperatures of 105F or more for 98 days out of the year14 full weeks.

Yet that conclusi on is based on studies ofonly 700 ppm and 850 ppm, so it coul d get much hotter than that.

And the Hadley Center adds, By the 2090s close to one-fifth of the worlds popula tion wil l be exposed to ozone

levels well above the World Health Organization recommended safe-health level.

The MIT press release cal led for rapid a nd mass ive action to avoid this. Study co-author Ronald Pri nn, the co-

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4/19

director of the Joint Program and director of MITs Center for Global Change Science, said, it is important to

base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science. Theres no way the world can or should take

these risks. Duh!

MIT put together a good figure that compares the temperatures we risk on our current do-nothing path wi th

those we might expect if we took serious action [see top figure above]. Note that in the no poli cy case there is

an extremely high probabil ity of more than 4C (7F) global warming, and about a 25% chance of more than 6C

(11F) global warming.

In a 2010 presentation, Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe has a figure of what 1000 ppm would mean (derived

from the 2010 NOAA-led report):

For more of the literature on U.S. warming, see Mother Nature is Just Getting Warmed Up.

The Hadley Center has a huge but useful figure which I will reproduce here:

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Note again that this is not the worst-case scenario. Its jus t business as usual out to 2100.

In the worst case, we get both continuing high levels of emissions and high carbon-cycle feedbacks. That

possibility was discussed here:

Royal Society Specia l I ss ue on Global Wa rming Details Helli sh Vis ion of 7F (4C) World Which We

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May Face in the 2060s! In such a 4C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded

in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural s ystems would la rgely be

exceeded throughout the world.

This would be the worst-case for the 2060s, but is in any case, close to business as usual for 2090s:

This is a staggering 13-18F over most of U.S. and 27F in the Arctic.

And there is every reason to believe that the earth would just keep getting hotter and hotter:

Science stunner On our current emiss ions path, CO2 levels i n 2100 wil l hi t levels last seen when the

Earth was 29F (16C) hotter: Paleocl imate data suggests CO2 may have at leas t twice the effect on

global temperatures than currently projected by computer models

Steve Easterbrooks post A first glimpse at model results for the next IPCC assessment shows that for the

scenario where there is 9F warming by 2100, you get another 7F warming by 2300 . Of course, folks that

arent motivated to avoid the civil ization-destroying 9F by 2100 wont be moved by whatever happens after

that.

DUST-BOWL-IFICATION

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7/19

Prolonged drought and Dust-bowli fication and i ts impact

on food securi ty may well be the impact that harms the

most number of people over the next few decades.

The journal Nature asked me to write a Comment piece on

this s ubject, The next dust bowl (subs. reqd), which is

basically a review of recent drought literature (full text

here).

As far back as 1990, sci entists a t NASAs Goddard Institute

of Space Studies projected that severe to extreme drought in

the United States, then happening every 20 years , could

become an every-other-year phenomenon by mid-century

[Rind et al., 1990].

A number of major recent studies have confirmed those

early findings . They warn that the Southwest, parts of the

Midwest, and many other highly populated parts of the

globe are likely headed toward sustained if not nearpermanent drought and Dust Bowl-like conditions if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path (see

USGS on Dust-Bowlification).

Back in October 2010, the National Center for Atmospheric Research published a complete literature

review, Drought under global warming: a review, (See NCAR analysis warns we ris k multiple,

devastating global droughts even on moderate emissions path).That study (now updated) makes clear

that Dust-Bowlification may be the most devastating impact of human-caused climate change. The

updated figure below makes clear just how self-destructive inaction would be:

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http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v478/n7370/full/478450a.htmlhttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/24/478771/my-nature-piece-dust-bowlification-grave-threat-it-poses-to-food-security/http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1990/1990_Rind_etal_1.pdfhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/07/207853/usgs-dust-bowl-storms-southwest/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decadeshttp://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/2904/climate-change-drought-may-threaten-much-globe-within-decadeshttp://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/07/207853/usgs-dust-bowl-storms-southwest/http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1990/1990_Rind_etal_1.pdfhttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/05/24/478771/my-nature-piece-dust-bowlification-grave-threat-it-poses-to-food-security/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v478/n7370/full/478450a.html


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The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in the 2060s and 2090s in a moderate emissions path. A reading of -4

or below i s considered extreme drought.

The PDSI in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely

exceeded -3 for the decade (see here). The study finds:

The large-scale pattern shown in Figure 11 [of which the figure above is part] appears to be a

robust response to increased GHGs. This is very al arming because if the drying is anything

resembli ng Figure 11, a very large population will be severely affected in the coming decades

over the whole United States, southern Europe, Southeast Asia, Brazil, Chile, Australia, and

most of Africa.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research notes By the end of the century, many populated areas, including

parts of the United States and much of he Mediterranean and Africa, could face readings in the range of -4 to

-10. Such decadal averages would be almost unprecedented.

For the record, the NCAR study merely models the IPCCs moderate A1B scenari o a tmospheric

concentrations of CO2 around 520 ppm in 2050 and 700 in 2100. Were currently headed much higher by

centurys end, but Im sure with an aggress ive program of energy R&D we could keep that to, say 800 ppm.

The UK Met Office came to a s imil ar view si x years ago in their anal ysis , projecting severe drought over8
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~alfredo/bguan_final.pdfhttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.81/full#fig11http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~alfredo/bguan_final.pdfhttp://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/DaiDrought.jpg


9/19

40% of the Earths habited landmass by centurys end (see The Century of Drought).

A 2012 Nature Climate Change article, Increas ing drought under global warming i n observations and

models (subs. reqd, news release here) confirms these findings, concluding, the observed global

aridity changes up to 2010 are consistent with model predictions, which suggest severe and widespread

droughts in the next 3090 years over many land areas resulting from either decreased precipitation

and/or increased evaporation. In particul ar, the author has a s tunning warning for this country: The

U.S. may never again return to the relatively wet conditions experienced from 1977 to 1999.

The projection of extended if not endless drought for the US Southwest (and parts of the Great Plai ns) ha s been

studied a great deal:

In 2007, Science(subs. reqd)publis hed research that predicted a permanent drought by 2050

throughout the Southwest levels of aridity comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl would stretch from

Kansa s to Cali fornia. And they were als o only looking at a 720 ppm case.

The unexpectedly rapid expansion of the tropical belt constitutes yet another signal that climate

change is occurring sooner than expected, noted one cli mate researcher in December 2007. A 2008

study led by NOAA noted, A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions

to the U.S. Southwest, Mexico, Austra li a and parts of Africa and South America .

In December 2008, the Bush Administration quietly released a US Geologica l Survey stunner: SW faces

permanent drying by 2050, which found:

The serious hydrological changes and impacts known to have occurred in both historic and

prehistoric times over North America reflect large-scale changes in the climate system that

can develop i n a matter of years and, in the case of the more severe pas t megadroughts,

persis t for decades. Such hydrologica l changes fit the definition of abrupt change becausethey occur faster than the time scales needed for human and natural systems to adapt,

leading to substantial disruptions in those systems. In the Southwest, for example, the

models project a permanent drying by the mid-21st century that reaches the level of aridity

seen in historical droughts, and a quarter of the projections may reach this level of aridity

much earlier.

U.S. southwest could s ee a 60-year drought li ke that of 12th century only hotter this century:

An unprecedented combination of heat plus decades of drought could be in store for the

Southwest sometime this century, suggests new research from a University of Arizona-led

team.

The bottom li ne is , we could have a Medieval -style drought with even warmer

temperatures, [lead author Connie] Woodhouse said.

The literature makes clear future droughts will be fundamentally different from all previous droughts that

humanity has experienced because they will be very hot weather droughts (see Must-have PPT: The global -

change-type drought and the future of extreme weather).

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http://climateprogress.org/2006/10/04/the-century-of-drought/http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1633.htmlhttps://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/7434/dry-and-drierhttp://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.38.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/14/southwest-drought-global-warmin/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/11/must-have-ppt-the-global-change-type-drought-and-the-future-of-extreme-weather/http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/14/southwest-drought-global-warmin/http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/16/us-geological-survey-stunner-sea-level-rise-in-2100-will-likely-substantially-exceed-ipcc-projections-sw-faces-permanent-drying-by-2050/http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.38.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/expanding-tropics-a-threat-to-millions-761326.htmlhttp://www.livingrivers.org/archives/article.cfm?NewsID=765http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/316/5828/1181https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/7434/dry-and-drierhttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1633.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2006/10/04/the-century-of-drought/


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A 2011 Environmental Research Letters article, Characterizing changes in drought risk for the United

States from climate change, comes to a similar conclusion as the NCAR study, Drought frequencies and

uncertainties in their projection tend to increase considerably over time and show a strong worsening

trend al ong higher greenhouse gas emis si ons s cenarios, s uggesting substantial benefits for greenhouse

gas emiss ions reductions. See especia ll y Figure 4C.

Another 2011 study, The Las t Drop: Cli mate Change and the Southwest Water Cri si s, that actuall y looks in

some detail at the scientific literature for just one region, finds that drought and reduced precipitation in the

U.S. SW alone could cost up to $1 trillion by centurys end.

Fina ll y, while the Dust Bowl la sted under a decade, the NOAA-led study found permanent Dust Bowls in

Southwest and a round the globe on our current emissions trajectory would be irreversible for many, many

centuries:

NOAA: Cli mate change la rgely ir reversibl e for 1000 years , with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest

and around the globe. This January 2009 PNAS paper finds that if we merely peak at 450-600 ppm ofCO2

over the coming century, among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected are

irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable t is ao those of the dust bowl

era and inexorable sea level ri se. will I do

Again, this i s al l jus t business as usual .

From a worst-case perspective, Princeton has done an anal ysis on Century-scale change in water ava il abil ity:

CO2-quadrupling experiment, which is to say 1100 ppm. The grim result: Most of the South and Southwest

ultimately sees a 20% to 50% (!) decline in soil moisture .

Finally, the heat and drought drives wildfires. Heres a National Academies figure from a presentation made by

the Presidents science adviser Dr. John Holdren in Oslo in 2010, about conditions projected for mid-century:

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SEA LEVEL RISE

The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) report ignored dynamic i ce-sheet dis integration, which was

al ready happening (see Nature: Dynamic thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet ocean margins is more

sensi tive, pervasive, enduring a nd i mportant than previousl y reali zed). The IPCC therefore low-ball ed sea l evel

rise estimates, suggesting seas might rise only a foot or two this century, greatly delighting the anti-science

crowd (see here)

Within a year, even a major report signed off on by the Bush administration itself was forced to concede that

the IPCC numbers were simply too out of date to be quoted anymore (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level

ris e in 2100 will li kely substantial ly exceed IPCC projections).

A dozen major studies since the IPCC report have concluded that we face much higher sea level rise this century:

PNAS Study (12/09): Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100 [see

figure above]. Note: We are currently close to the A1F1 emissions trajectoryand thus appear to be on

track for 1.4 meters (56 inches) of sea level rise.

JPL bombshell (3/11): Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050

Startling new sea level rise research: Most likely 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100

High Water: Greenland ice sheet melting faster than expected and could raise East Coast sea levels an

extra 20 i nches by 2100 to more than 6 feet.

West Antarctic ice sheet collapse even more catastrophic for U.S. coasts

Nature sea level rise shocker: Coral fossils suggest catastrophic increase of more than 5 centimetres

per year over a 50-year stretch is possible. Lead author warns, This could happen again.

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NatureGeoscience: Sea levels may rise 5 feet by 2100

Four studies in 2012 provide yet more cause for concern

Three new Studies on Sea Level Rise Make Clear We Must Act Now. Staying near our current greenhouse

emis si ons emis si ons path not the worst-case scenario s till leads to over 40 inches of sea level ri se

by 2100 and then seas continue to rise 7 inches or more a decade!

Sea Level Ris e: It Could Be Wors e Than We Think: Seas could rise dramatically higher over the next few

centuries than sci entis ts previous ly thought somewhere between 18-to-29 feet above current levels ,

rather than the 13-to-20 feet they were tal king a bout jus t a few years ago.

Needless to say, a sea level rise of one meter by 2100 (nearly 40 inches) would be an unmitigated catastrophe

for the planet, even if sea levels didnt keep rising several inches a decade for centuries, which they inevitably

would. The firs t meter of SLR would flood 17% of Bangladesh, displ acing tens of mil li ons of people, and

reducing its rice-farming land by 50 percent. Globally, it would create more than 100 million environmental

refugees and inundate over 13,000 s quare miles of this country. Southern Louisi ana and South Florida would

inevitably be abandoned.

SPECIES LOSS ON LAND AND SEA

In 2007, the IPCC warned that as global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5C [relative to 1980 to

1999], model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe. That is a

temperature rise over pre-industrial levels of a bit more than 4.0C. So a 5.5C rise would likely put extinctions

beyond the high end of that range.

Many more studies have rais ed similar concerns:

Study finds mass biodiversity collapse at 900 ppm, and poss ibl y a threshold response to relativelyminor increases in CO2 concentration and/or global temperature.

Last fall , the Royal Society ran a special is sue on Biological diversity in a changing world, concluding

There are very strong indications that the current rate of species extinctions far exceeds anything in the

fossil record.

Nature Climate Change (9/11): The proportion of actual biodiversity loss should quite clearly be revised

upwards: by 2080, more than 80% of genetic diversity within species may disappear in certain groups of

organisms

And, of course, When CO2 levels in the atmosphere reach about 500 parts per million, you put calcification outof business in the oceans. There arent many studies of what happens to the oceans a s we get toward 800 to

1000 ppm, but it appears likely that much of the worlds oceans, especially in the southern hemisphere, become

inhospitable to many forms of marine life. A 2005 Nature study concluded these detrimental conditions

could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

A 2009 study in Nature Geoscience warned that global warming may create expanding dead zones in

the ocean that would be devoid of fish and seafood and remain for thousands of years.

A 2010 Nature Geoscience study found that Oceans are aci difying 10 times fas ter today than 55 mil li on

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years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred.

Geological Society (8/10): Acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown by end of century.

A 2011 Nature Geoscience study found humans are spewing carbon into the atmosphere 10 times faster

now than 56 million years ago, the PETM, a time of 10F warming and mass extinction.

As for the worst-cas e scenari o, we have:

Nature Stunner Global warming blamed for 40% decline in the oceans phytoplankton:Microscopic

life crucial to the marine food chain is dying out. The consequences could be catastrophic.

Yes, some scientists disputed the analysis, but I have seen no refutation in the scientific literature.

UNEXPECTED IMPACTS

If we go to 800 ppm let alone 1000 ppm or higher we are far outside the bounds of simple linear

projection. Some of the worst impacts may not be obvious and there may be unexpected negative synergies.

The best evidence that will happen is the fact that it is already happened with even a small amount of warming

we have seen to date.

The pine beetle infestation is the first major climate change crisis in Canada notes Doug McArthur, a

professor at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver. The pests are projected to kill 80 per cent of merchantable

and susceptible lodgepole pine in parts of Britis h Columbia within 10 years and thats why the harvest

levels in the region have been increased significantly.

As quantified in the journal Nature, Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change,

(subs. reqd), which just looks at the current and future impact from the beetles warming-driven devastation in

British Columbia:

the cumulative impact of the beet le outbreak in the affected region during 20002020 willbe 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m-2 yr-1 on average over 374,000 km2 of

forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon

source.

No wonder the carbon sinks are saturating faster than we thought (see here) unmodeled impacts of climate

change are destroying them:

Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may

undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon , and such

impacts should be accounted for in l arge-sca le modell ing anal yses.

And the bark beetle is sl amming the Western U.S. and Ala ska , too (see Oldest Utah newspa per: Bark-beetle

driven wildfires are a vicious climate cycle).

An April 2012 s tudy explained, Global Warming is Doubling Bark Beetle Mating, Boosting Tree Attacks Up To

60-Fold, Study Finds.

The key point is this catastrophic climate change impact and its carbon-cycle feedback were not foreseen even a

dozen years ago which suggests future climate impacts will bring other equally unpleasant surprises,

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http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-nature-geoscience/http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/31/geological-society-acid-ocean-marine-lif/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7190/full/nature06777.htmlhttp://climateprogress.org/2007/10/26/soaring-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-sinks-saturating/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/446908/global-warming-is-doubling-bark-beetle-mating-boosting-tree-attacks-up-to-60-fold-study-finds/http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/16/oldest-utah-newspaper-bark-beetle-driven-wildfires-are-a-vicious-climate-cycle/http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/26/soaring-carbon-dioxide-concentrations-sinks-saturating/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7190/full/nature06777.htmlhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/07/29/206497/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/06/06/238131/carbon-release-to-atmosphere-petm-warming-mass-extinction/http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/31/geological-society-acid-ocean-marine-lif/http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-nature-geoscience/


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especially as we continue on our path of no resistance .

EXTREME WEATHER

One of the basic predictions of climate science is that extreme weather will make the hydrological cycle more

extreme. Ive already dis cussed the extensive (and growing) li terature on how dry areas wil l get drier. But wet

areas will also get wetter:

Two seminal Nature papers joi n growing body of evidence that human emissi ons fuel extreme weather,

flooding that harm humans and the environment:

1) Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the

observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of

data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a

comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over

the la tter hal f of the twentieth century anal ysed with an optimal fi ngerprinting technique.

Changes i n extreme precipi tation projected by models, and thus the impacts of futurechanges in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to

underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.

2) Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766

these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services

severely, and caused ins ured losses estimated at 1.3 bil li on.

it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased

the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

That post ended with i ts own review of the li terature on the connection between global warming a nd extreme

weather. Here are several more recent studies on how warming i s al ready making our weather more extreme:

Study: Global warming i s dr ivi ng increased frequency of extreme wet or dry summer weather in

southeast, so droughts and deluges are likely to get worse

A new study by a Duke University-led team of climate scientists suggests that global warming

is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH)

that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry

summer weather in the southeastern United States.

The models known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models

predict the NASH will continue to intensify and expand as concentrations of carbon dioxide

and other greenhouse gases increase in Earths atmosphere in coming decades .This

intensification will further increase the likelihood of extreme summer precipitation variability

periods of drought or deluge in southeastern states in coming decades, Li says.

Nature: Hurricanes ARE getting fi ercer and i ts going to get much worse

14
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The team calculates that a 1 C increase in sea-surface temperatures would result in a 31%

increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms per year: from 13 of those storms

to 17. Since 1970, the tropical oceans have warmed on average by around 0.5 C. Computer

models suggest they may warm by a further 2 C by 2100.

Nature: Strong Evidence Manmade Unprecedented Heat And Rainfa ll Extremes Are Here Causi ng

Intense Human Suffering

Hansen et al: Extreme Heat Waves in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 Were

Caused by Global Warming

Study Finds 80% Chance Russias 2010 July Heat Record Would Not Have Occurred Without Climate

Warming

NOAA: Human-Caused Climate ChangeAlreadya Major Factor in More Frequent Mediterranean Droughts

The very latest science suggests we may actually be in the midst of a quantum leap or step-function change in

extreme weather because of warming-driven Arctic i ce loss:

Arctic Warming Favors Extreme, Prolonged Weather Events Such As Drought, Flooding, Cold Spells And

Heat Waves

Is Cli mate Change Bringing the Arctic to Europe?

NOAA Bombshell : Warming-Driven Arctic Ice Loss Is Boosting Chance of Extreme U.S. Weather

FOOD INSECURITY

In over two decades of tracking world food prices, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization index has never

stayed so high for so l ong.

This represents true suffering for hundreds of millions of people who live on the edge, for whom food is a large

fraction of their income like, say, North Africa (see Expert consensus grows on contribution of record high food

prices to Middle East unrest).

Population growth, dietary s hifts, growing use of crops for biofuels, peaking conventional oil production a nd15
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/01/06/399350/hansen-extreme-heat-waves-texas-oklahoma-moscow-were-caused-by-global-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/24/351770/study-russia-2010-july-heat-record-climate-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/27/355639/noaa-climate-change-mediterranean-droughts/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/06/419154/climate-change-arctic-europe/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/11/989231/noaa-bombshell-warming-driven-arctic-ice-loss-is-boosting-chance-of-extreme-us-weather/http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/04/207460/contribution-of-high-food-prices-to-mideast-unrest/http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/11/989231/noaa-bombshell-warming-driven-arctic-ice-loss-is-boosting-chance-of-extreme-us-weather/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/02/06/419154/climate-change-arctic-europe/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/04/457823/arctic-warming-extreme-weather-events-drought-flooding-cold-spells-and-heat-waves/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/27/355639/noaa-climate-change-mediterranean-droughts/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/24/351770/study-russia-2010-july-heat-record-climate-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/01/06/399350/hansen-extreme-heat-waves-texas-oklahoma-moscow-were-caused-by-global-warming/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/26/451605/nature-strong-evidence-manmade-unprecedented-heat-rainfall-extremes-causing-intense-human-suffering/


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increases in extreme weather have all played a part. As the literature above makes clear, on our current

emissions path, we face:

Dust-Bowli fications devastating i mpact on farming;

Sea level rise and the accompanying salt water infiltration, threatening some of the richest agricultural

deltas in the world, such as the Nile and Ganges (see Rising sea salinates Indias Ganges).

Ocean aci dification, warming and overfishing severely depleting the avail abil ity of seafood.

Extreme weather harming crops see NOAA: Monster crop-destroying Rus si an heat wave to be once-in-

a-decade event by 2060s (or sooner)

One analysis just of the impact of temperature rise on food finds Half of worlds population could face climate-

driven food crisis by 2100. And this is just a 700 ppm anal ysi s with no dis cuss ion of the impact of soi l drying

up or other well-understood climate impacts.

Two major Oxfam studies in the past 12 months show the impact global warming poses to food prices. First we

had Extreme Weather Has Helped Push Tens of Mil li ons i nto Hunger and Povertyin Grim Foretaste of

Warmed World, with this chart:

Further modeling the impact of warming-dri ven extreme weather shocks l ead Oxfam to concludecorn prices

could increase a staggering 500% by 2030:

16
http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/05/salt-water-infiltration-wedge-global-warming-india-ganges/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/27/795811/oxfam-warns-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-will-cause-food-prices-to-soar/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/27/795811/oxfam-warns-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-will-cause-food-prices-to-soar/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/OxfamGraph11.pnghttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/29/377015/oxfam-extreme-weather-hunger-and-poverty/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/01/11/203548/half-of-worlds-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/03/14/207683/noaa-russian-heat-wave-trenberth-attribution/http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/05/salt-water-infiltration-wedge-global-warming-india-ganges/


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The additional price increase percentage (olive green bars) is calculated off the original price increase.

For the foreseeable future, the Cli mate Story of the Year is that Warming-Driven Drought and Extreme Weather

Emerge as Key Threat to Global Food Security.

DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS

In 2011 the British Medical Journal warned that climate

change poses an immediate and grave threat, driving ill-

health and increasi ng the risk of confli ct, such that each

feeds upon the other. The UKs Hadley Center notes that on

our current one rela ted impact, By the 2090s close to one-

fifth of the worlds population will be exposed to ozone

levels well above the World Health Organization

recommended safe-health level.

A June 2011 peer-reviewed report released by the Union of

Concerned Scientists (UCS) Climate Change and Your

Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution

shows that the harm to Americans, especially children, from human-caused warming is upon us now.

A just-releas ed September 2011 report by the European Lung Foundation finds:

Cli mate change set to increase ozone-related deaths over next 60 years

Scientis ts are warning that death rates li nked to cli mate change wil l increase in several

European countries over the next 60 yrs .

Earlier this year, Climate Progress reported on what the top medical and health groups warn are the health

risks Americans face from climate change:

More than doubled asthma rates and lengthened asthma season (already 20 days longer)17
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/08/207834/british-medical-journal-climate-change-threat-health/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/08/26/204550/global-warming-health-impacts-heat-waves-ps/http://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110927073159.htmhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/25/207590/top-medical-groups-warn-americans-of-health-risks-posed-by-climate-change/http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110927073159.htmhttp://www.ucsusa.org/climateandozonepollutionhttp://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/08/26/204550/global-warming-health-impacts-heat-waves-ps/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/04/08/207834/british-medical-journal-climate-change-threat-health/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/21/393127/climate-story-of-the-year-warming-driven-drought-extreme-weather-emerge-as-threat-to-global-food-security/http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Oxfam.gif


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Threatened access to clean drinking water

Increases in ai rborne and ins ect borne ill ness es (e.g. mosquitos, ticks, tapeworm)

Increases i n diarrheal , respi ratory, and heart disease

Increased ris k of sal monella s pread as average temperatures ris e

Increase in hospital use results in rising health care costs

Particular risk among low-income communities, children, the elderly, and the obese

See also The Lancets landmark Health Commission: Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the

21st century

CONCLUSION

The possibility that unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases would not do unimaginable harm to humanity

has become vanis hingly s mall. Thats because:

We remain near the worst-case emissions pathways

There is li ttle prospect of major national or global action any times soon (thank you, deniers)

Many impacts are coming faster than the models projected, and

The overwhelming majority of the scientific literature in the past 5 years has been more dire than the

2007 IPCC report, which i tself was more than enough motivation for the overwhelming majority of

cli mate scientists a nd countries to call for urgent action to reduce emiss ions.

And I havent even discussed the many, many studies that suggest in fact carbon-cycle feedbacks (like the

defrosting tundra) a re almost al l positive (amplifying) and yet largely ignored in most climate models :

NSIDC: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing

100 bil li on tons of carbon by 2100 and links therein.

Nature: Climate Experts Warn Thawing Permafrost Could Cause 2.5 Times the Warming of Deforestation!

Forest Feedback: Rising CO2 In Atmosphere Also Speeds Carbon Loss From Forest Soils, Research Finds

For Peats Sake: Record Temperatures And Wi ldfi res In Eastern Russ ia Drive Ampli fying Carbon-Cycle

Feedback

Stunning Peatlands Amplifying Feedback: Drying Wetlands and Intensi fying Wil dfires Boost Carbon

Release Ninefold

Carbon Feedback From Thawing Permafrost Will Likely Add 0.4F 1.5F To Total Global Warming By

2100

So its no surpris e that many climate impacts are coming much faster than the models had predicted:

18
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/17/207552/nsidc-thawing-permafrost-will-turn-from-carbon-sink-to-source-in-mid-2020s-releasing-100-billion-tons-of-carbon-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/15/513685/forest-feedback-rising-co2-in-atmosphere-also-speeds-carbon-loss-from-forest-soils-research-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/31/784801/for-peats-sake-record-temperatures-and-wildfires-in-eastern-russia-drive-amplifying-carbon-cycle-feedback/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/03/360902/peatlands-feedback-drying-wetlands-wildfires-boosts-carbon-release/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/06/970721/carbon-feedback-from-thawing-permafrost-will-add-04f-15f-to-total-global-warming-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/06/970721/carbon-feedback-from-thawing-permafrost-will-add-04f-15f-to-total-global-warming-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/03/360902/peatlands-feedback-drying-wetlands-wildfires-boosts-carbon-release/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/31/784801/for-peats-sake-record-temperatures-and-wildfires-in-eastern-russia-drive-amplifying-carbon-cycle-feedback/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/07/15/513685/forest-feedback-rising-co2-in-atmosphere-also-speeds-carbon-loss-from-forest-soils-research-finds/http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/12/01/379675/nature-climate-experts-thawing-permafrost-warming-of-deforestation/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/17/207552/nsidc-thawing-permafrost-will-turn-from-carbon-sink-to-source-in-mid-2020s-releasing-100-billion-tons-of-carbon-by-2100/http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/05/14/204103/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change/


19/19

Close

Arctic Sea Ice is melting much, much faster than even the best climate models had projected. The

reason is most likely unmodeled amplifying feedbacks. Image via Arctic Sea Ice Blog.

Inaction means humanitys self-destruction. We must pay any price or bear any burden to stop catastrophic

climate change.

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