An Environmental Risk Assessment Method for Training and

Firing Ranges

Ulf Qvarfort1, Jan Sjöström1 & Per Alexis2 1Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 901 82 Umeå, Sweden 2Swedish Fortifications Agency, 631 89 Eskilstuna, Sweden

Based on;

SWEDEC:s* classification about UXO and

used ammunition

Information about

geology/hydrogeology/nature

MIFO risk assessment

*Swedish EOD and Demining Centre (SWEDEC)

State of information

Total picture of

UXO-facts

Estimated UXO

concentration

Probability of contact:

recreational area

Probability of contact: land

development

Probability of detonation

RISK

ANALYSIS

RISK MANAGEMENT

END-USE vs. RISK REDUCING MEASURES

UXO FACTS

Bayesian Network Model for Risk Analysis FOI model RMV

Classification

History

Target Area

Used ammunition

Calculated UXO

Residual quantity of metals and TNT.

Different Areas in Firing Ranges

Risk Area

Input data for Ammunition

Type of ammunition

The number of shots fired for each Target Area

The amount of Metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb) and explosives

The amount of UXO

The amount of cracked UXO (calculated)

Grytan shooting field

UXO in different Target areas

Area Ha UXO/ha Total

C1 15 1 15

C4 13 25 325

C7 13 25 325

C9 19 3 57

C13 24 1 24

C14 38 1 38

C18 16 2 32

C20 13 4 52

C22 4 4 16

C23 25 2 50

C24 14 1 14

C28 16 1 16

C29 16 4 64

C30 2 15 30

C33 12 2 24

C38 52 2 104

C39 6 2 12

C41 10 2 20

C42 5 40 200

D15 15 20 300

D27 26 10 260

D34 18 8 144

D37 6 33 198

D40 24 81 1944

D44 15 23 345

D45 300 80 24000

Sum 1011 28609

Target areas

Used ammunition

Metals, TNT

Chemicals

Precondition for

transport

Risk

assessment

TNT in UXO at Target Areas

UXO D45 Oxa 10% UXO 10 %

broken

Visual Random plot

Example for the amount of TNT inside a

target area.

Ammunition TNT kg UXO total UXO broken ? TNT total kg TNT broken kg

75 gr 2,11 650 65 1372 137

80 Ving 0,71 430 43 305 31

120 Ving 22 240 24 528 53

150 gr 5,63 430 43 2421 242

155 gr 8,5 650 65 5525 553

Total 2400 240 10151 1015

Water analysis Hällån

ELEMENT Hällån-in Hällån-out

Ca mg/l 25 41,1

Fe mg/l 0,0194 0,0354

K mg/l <0,5 <0,5

Mg mg/l 3,91 3,74

Na mg/l 0,894 1,03

S mg/l <0,2 0,423

Al µg/l 5,48 4,55

As µg/l <1 <1

Ba µg/l 7,45 15,3

Cd µg/l <0,05 <0,05

Co µg/l <0,05 <0,05

Cr µg/l <0,5 <0,5

Cu µg/l <1 <1

Hg µg/l <0,02 0,032

Mn µg/l 0,72 1,77

Ni µg/l 0,611 0,612

Pb µg/l <0,2 <0,2

Sb µg/l <0,1 <0,1

W µg/l <0,5 1,01

U µg/l 0,0214 0,172

Zn µg/l <2 <2

Explosives< 0,01 μg/l

Leakage – Distribution - Transport?

1. Explosion ?

2. With time Intact/Broken ?

Leakage of TNT in a small area (5 x 5 m).

Precipitation 650 mm/yr. Mean temp 2,8 oC

Time 30 years since spill of TNT cereals

0,1m1239mg/kg

-0,5m128mg/kg

-2,0m<0,1mg/kg

Groundwater,center=18mg/l

Groundwater,10mdownstream=0,8mg/l

Groundwater,20mdownstream=<0,01mg/l

Groundwaterlevel2,3m.b.s

-1,0m2mg/kg

Factors for Risk Assessment

• Hazard assessment (H)

• Contamination level (C)

• Migration potential (MP)

• Sensitivity/protection value (S/P)

Example of Risk Classification