an assessment of urban development ... - 国立環境研究所
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An Assessment of Urban Development Pathways for Delhi Using Emission
TrajectoriesChhemendra Sharma
NATCOM PMCMinistry of Environment & Forests
C/o Winrock International India, New Delhi
A.P. MitraNational Physical Laboratory, New Delhi
Reena PundirIndian Institute of Technology, Delhi
GCP Meeting, Mexico City, 4-8 September 2006
Outline of the Presentation
• Background• Emission Estimates• Development Pathways and Development
Goals• Conflict of interests of various stake
holders• Impacts of policy decisions• Sum-up
Salient Features of Delhi• Unique City State in India• Area 1483 km2
• Highest per capita Income in India• Constantly expending opportunities due to
capitalization of economic policy reforms• Only 8% population lives below poverty line• Forest Covers over 7.5% of Delhi’s Geographical Area• Fundamental problems
– Migration– Power and water supply– Public Health – Public Safety
900 BC to 1947
P=274
1958
P = 1176
1981 2001
P = 9294
Delhi –Historic Development
P =Population Density person/km2)
National Capital Region (NCR) Towns
Delhi (NCTD)
NCTD – National Capital Territory of Delhi
Emission Inventory: Significance sectors Sector CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO SO2 Partic
ulate
Energy & Transformation Industries
X X X X X
Transportation X X X X X
Biomass Burning X X X X X X
Industrial processes
Cement X
Steel X
Agriculture
Enteric fermentation X
Rice cultivation X
Agriculture soil X
Agricultural residue burning X X X X X
Land-use and forestry X
Waste X
Embodied emission
IPCC 1996 Guidelines for Inventory Preparation
Pollutants emission from gasoline consumption in Delhi
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1000019
90-9
1
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
Year
Emis
sion
(Gg)
CO2 NOx HC PMCO BC OC
Pollutants emission from diesel consumption in Delhi
1
10
100
1000
10000
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
Emis
sion
(Gg)
CO2 NOx HC PMCO BCOC
CO2 emission from CNG consumption in Delhi
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
CO
2 Em
issi
on (
Gg)
Emission Inventories from Transport Sector in Delhi
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total CH4 emission from direct & Indirect sources of emission
Direct CH4 emission Indirect CH4 emission
Em
issi
on(G
g)Year1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Total CO2 emission from Direct and Indirect sources in Delhi
Direct CO2 Emission Indirect CO2 EmissionE
mis
sion
(Gg)
Year
Emission Inventories for Delhi
Human Development Report of Delhi (August 2006) advocates the Development Approach as:
‘..Purpose of development is to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy, creative and secure lives.’
Delhi Development Goals• Goal 1: Eradicate Poverty and Hunger ( three
targets)• Goal 2: Achieve Universal Elementary Education
(Seven targets)• Goal 3: Promote Gender equality and Empower
women (Three targets)• Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality (Two targets)• Goal 5:Improve Maternal Health ( One Target)• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and Other
Diseases (Three targets)
Delhi Development Goals• Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
– Target #20: Increased Forest Cover– Target #21: Reduce carbon dioxide emissions– Target # 22: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people
without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation
– Target #23: Increase proportion of population with access to improved sanitation
– Target #24: Achieve a significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers
Continued…
Delhi Development Goals
• Goal 8: Strengthen Bhagidari (Three targets)
• Goal 9: Improve Public Safety (Three targets)
Continued…
Development Pathways
• Land Use Pattern is supposed to be guided by successive City Master Plans
– Presently Master Plan 2001 is operational
– Modification of Master Plan is expected to be notified very soon as a result of conflict of competitive interests
Compliance of Policy decisions are often influenced/ catalyzed by the stakeholders’activism
• Recent examples:
1. Ongoing drive for complete closure of commercial activities in residential areas ordered by superior courts to force compliance with the provisions of current Master Plan
2. Implementation of reforms in transport sector to improve ambient air quality
- Introduction of CNG for Public transport- Introduction of tougher emission norms for new vehicles- Improvement of fuel quality- Restriction of movement of commercial vehicles
2000-01
Number of Registered vehicles in Delhi
0500000
10000001500000200000025000003000000350000040000004500000
1990
-9119
91-92
1992
-9319
93-94
1994
-9519
95-96
1996
-9719
97-98
1998
-9919
99-00
2000
-0120
01-02
2002
-0320
03-04
year
Num
ber o
f veh
icle
s
Population of Delhi
02468
10121416
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(mill
ion)
Category wise increase in Number of Vehicles in Delhi
0500000
10000001500000200000025000003000000
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
Year
Num
ber o
f Veh
icle
s
Car & jeeps MotorCycle &Scooters Auto RickshawsTaxies Buses Goods Vehicles
Vehicle Emission Norm Schedule In India
1990
1st set normsnotified
1995
Emission norms forcatalytic vehicles
1996
2nd set normsnotified
2000/01
Euro-I equivalent (Country)Euro-II eqv. For cars (4 metros)
2005
Euro-II (Country)Euro-III (11 cities)
2010
Euro-III (Country)Euro-IV (11 cities)
August 1997
Sulphur 0.25%Delhi & Taj
Sulphur 0.25%Metro cities
April 1998
Sulphur 0.25%Entire Country
April-2000
April 2000-04
Sulphur 0.05%11 cities
April April96
Sulphur 0.50 %4 metros & Taj
Diesel SulphurReduction
Programme
Sulphur 0.05%Entire Country& 0.035 (11 cities)
April-2005
April-2010
Sulphur 0.005% (11 cities)& 0.035%
(Entire Country)
IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS ON AIR QUALITY OF DELHI (1996 Vs. 2003)
IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS ON AIR QUALITY OF DELHI (1996 Vs. 2003)
Effect of policies over pollutants emission from car & jeeps in Delhi
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
Emis
sion
(ton
es)
CO Emission in (tones) HC+NOx Emission (Tones)
Effect of policies over pollutants emission from auto rickshaws in Delhi
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
Emis
sion
( Ton
es)
CO Emission in (tones) HC+NOx Emission (Tones)
Effect of policies over pollutants emission from motorcycle & scooter in Delhi
010000200003000040000500006000070000
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
Em
issi
on (T
ones
)
HC+NOx Emission (tones) and CO Emissions (tones)
Application of stricter Emission Norms for Vehicles
2000-01 = Euro –I
2002-03 =Euro-II
Impacts of Policy Decisions on Criteria Pollutants Emissions from Transport Sector
CO2 Emission form Diesel and CNG consumption in Buses in Delhi
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
Year
Emis
sion
in (G
g)
CO2 emission form CNG (Gg ) CO2 emission from Diesel (Gg)
Euro-II : Provisional Scenario for Euro-II Bus Fleet –Completely Phased Out
Co-benefits : Reduction in CO2 Emission
Savings
New Initiative in Delhi • Successful completion of first phase of Metro rail
and start of Second Phase
• In order to prepare city for the upcoming Commonwealth Games in 2010, big infra-structure development projects are being planned
• A multi-mode transport system comprising of Metro, LRT and high Capacity Bus system is being planned
To Sum-up:
• Development trajectory is a result of complex interplay of interests of various stake-holders especially in democratic set-up
• The issue of decarbonization has been recognized but issues related to air quality improvement have dominance over CO2reduction issues
Acknowledgement:ISSE/NCAR
IHDPGCP
Thanks