an advanced atmosphere/ocean assessment program: reducing the risks associated with offshore wind...

8/6/2019 An Advanced Atmosphere/Ocean Assessment Program: Reducing the Risks Associated with Offshore Wind Energy Development as Defined by The NJ Energy Master Plan and Th

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State of New JerseyNew Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU)

An Advanced Atmosphere/Ocean Assessment Program:

Reducing the Risks Associated with Offshore WindEnergyDevelopment

As Defined by The NJ Energy Master Plan andThe NJ Offshore Wind Energy Economic Development Act

Principal

Investigators: Scott Glenn, Sc.D. and Rich Dunk, Ph.D., CCMTeam Members:Josh Kohut, Louis Bowers, Greg Seroka, John Kerfoot, Lisa

Ojanen, Ethan Handel

Hi-Res Weather

ModelSpatial

Validation DataWind Power

Statistics


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Ecological baselinestudies of offshorewind power alreadyperformed

Avian species

Fisheries Marine Mammals Sea turtles

This project willperform physical

baseline study


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NJDEP Ecological Sensitivity andAWS Truewind Resource Map


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Risks1. Wind farm design:

What is the optimal spacing of wind turbines?

1. Installation:

When is the best time to install planned and futurewind turbines?

1. Operation:

When do you schedule maintenance? How do youforecast power for the day-ahead market?

1. Planning:

Where do we site future wind turbines?


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Risk reductionWe will develop an

improved weather modeland spatial datasets for:

1. Design and installation ofexisting wind farms

2. Comparison with ecological

studies for siting of future windfarms

3. Future operations andmaintenance of wind farms

4. More accurate day-aheadforecasts for the energy market

90 m Annual Wind Speed (m/s) andDirection from RU-WRF


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Why do we need a betteratmospheric model?Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature

NJ Sea Breeze


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Large-Scale and Small-ScaleOffshore WindOur experience with both atmospheric and oceanographic

monitoring and modeling will provide the best estimates of offshorewind along the coast of New Jersey.

Infrared SatelliteWeather Radar

RU-WRF Model 2kmSimulation


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Operational Mesoscale Modelingwith RU-WRFIMCS RU-WRF has

been proven to be a

highly successful andtrusted tool in theprediction of day-to-day, severe, andoffshore weather.

RU-WRF has beenused to forecast day-to-day and severeweather conditionsfor PSEG for morethan seven years.The model has beenused foroceanographicprojects funded bythe Navy, NSF, etc.


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IMCS RU-WRF was the first operational weather model (US Gov. orotherwise) to accurately predict the path of Tropical Storm Ernesto

through the Middle-Atlantic States in 2006.

Operational Mesoscale Modelingwith RU-WRF


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Capability of Real-time Energy

Forecasts

Energy Yield Turbine by TurbineWake LossSevere Weather Outage

Tropical Storms Noreasters Thunderstorms/lightning Ice Accretion

Inaccessibility due to high seas and

winds Real-time Construction Climatological

Operational Mesoscale Modelingwith RU-WRF


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Wind Power

m/s


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Sea Breeze Development

RU-WRF Model SimulationInfrared Satellite


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Infrared Satellite RU-WRF Model Simulation

Neutral Case


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cation of Sea Breeze Front at 100 metersUpwelling SST Sea Breeze ~ 8.6 kmfarther west than Neutral Case SST

Upwelling SSTSea Breeze @ 100 m

74.05 W

Upwelling Case vs. Neutral Case SST

Vertical Cross-Section, 39.8 N

meters

Neutral SSTSea Breeze @ 100 m

73.95 W

Temperature CTemperature C


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NJ Sea Breeze Event

RU-WRF Model 2km Simulation

Wind Speed [m/s]


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NJ Sea Breeze Cross Section

kil

ome

ters

Wind Speed [m/s]


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Scope of Work Details

1. High resolution, microscale modelresolving sea breeze2. High resolution boundary conditions to

resolve upwelling centers

3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontalwind distributions at the microscale

4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to

populate database and calculate hourlystatistics by month

P d WRF d i


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2 km horizontal

resolution over NYBight 0.67 km horizontal

resolution over studyarea

Model will run inreal-time, for precisecomparison to onsitemet towers

Data will be extracted

from the model at anarray of grid points,representing locations5 miles, 10 miles, 15

miles,and 20 miles offshore at

10 mile intervalsnorthward

Proposed WRF domain


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1. High resolution, microscale model resolvingsea breeze2. High resolution boundary conditions to



4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to

populate database and calculate hourlystatistics by month


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ConditionsOuterboundary

conditions(incl. soil

moisture): highres. 4km NAM

LandUse:

USGS 24-category

SST: high res.1km 14-daycomposite

product (MODIS,etc.)

High res.,nested RU-

WRF: 10-20mnear surfacevertical res.


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3. Map surface currents to confirmhorizontal wind distributions at themicroscale

4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites

5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season topopulate database and calculate hourlystatistics by month

Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab


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CODAR

Network

Glider

Fleet

L-Band & X-Band

Satellite Receivers

3-D Nowcasts

& Forecasts

Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation LabObservatory Operations & Education Center


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MediumRange

Network


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CODAR Electronics Combined Transmit/Receive Anten


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Enhanced Hi resolution HF radar Coverage


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Enhanced Hi-resolution HF radar Coverage

Horizontal Resolution: 6 kmTemporal Average: 3 hoursHorizontal Resolution: 1 km

Temporal Average: 1 hour (or less)

HF Radar Derived Linear Wind Model


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Rotate wind vectors according to complex correlation

Calculate the slope and intercept of best fit line

U'c(x,y,t) = slope(x,y)*W'(t)

HF Radar Derived Linear Wind Model

Wind Transient [W'] (cm/s)

Cu

rrentTransient[U'](cm/s)


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4. Vertical validation from monitoringsites

5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season topopulate database and calculate hourlystatistics by month

Coastal/Offshore Monitoring


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Coastal/Offshore MonitoringMeteorological

TowerMeteorological Buoy Offshore vertical

LIDAR

Coastal/OffshoreScanning LIDAR

Infrared Satellite Coastal Radar(CODAR)
http://www.axystechnologies.com/LinkClick.aspx?link=136&tabid=68http://www.axystechnologies.com/LinkClick.aspx?link=136&tabid=68


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4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season

to populate database and calculatehourly statistics by month

Virtual Meteorological Tower Output


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Virtual Meteorological Tower Outputat 48 locations

Example of wind speed (m/s) at tower12x24 January February March April May June July August Septemb

erOctober Novembe

rDecembe

r

2300-0000

6.83 7.22 7.67 5.74 7.01 6.5 5.55 5.93 5.81 6.79 6.78 7.23

2200-2300

6.78 7.39 7.5 5.83 7.07 6.32 6.15 5.56 6.3 6.72 6.68 6.68

2100-2200

6.66 7.3 7.02 6 6.66 6.02 6.34 5.63 6.05 6.49 6.66 6.86

2000-2100

6.44 7.15 6.93 5.85 6.36 5.65 6.41 5.62 6.01 6.36 6.5 6.7

1900-2000

6.4 6.93 6.73 5.49 6.08 5.52 5.69 5.27 5.71 6.48 6.67 7.02

1800-1900

6.18 7.14 6.62 5.58 6.22 5.55 5.32 4.83 5.48 6.36 6.22 7.31

1700-

1800

5.86 6.91 7.03 5.84 6.72 6.09 5.65 4.82 5.3 5.74 6.17 6.92

1600-1700

5.89 7.06 7.66 6.17 6.83 6.46 5.96 5.39 5.66 5.59 6.09 6.82

1500-1600

6.05 7.12 7.78 6.52 6.98 6.41 6.18 5.58 5.87 6.12 6.44 7.44

1400-1500

6.6 7.15 8.1 6.68 6.95 6.32 6.01 5.33 5.87 6.33 6.4 7.63

1300-1400

6.45 7.19 8.01 6.57 7.04 6 5.79 5.53 5.72 6.45 6.7 7.84

1200-1300

6.51 7.37 7.44 6.63 6.82 5.54 5.4 5.13 5.53 6.33 6.72 7.7

1100-1200 6.37 7.09 7.07 6.3 6.61 5.07 4.61 4.91 5.38 6.31 6.76 7.51

1000-1100

6.25 6.95 6.83 6.38 6.39 4.85 4.07 4.36 5.44 6.27 6.85 7.25

0900-1000

6.23 7.14 6.8 6.34 6.12 4.5 3.81 3.91 5.48 5.83 6.54 6.65

0800-0900

6.34 6.96 6.44 5.96 5.55 4.44 3.69 3.82 5.33 5.4 6.41 6.95

0700-0800

6.76 7.09 6.16 5.55 5.56 4.21 3.69 3.74 5.34 6.54 6.94 6.93

0600-0700

6.82 7.11 6.22 5.57 5.88 4.39 4.03 4.46 6.04 7.33 7.26 6.88

0500-0600

6.84 6.74 6.51 6.08 6.73 5.64 5.03 5.5 6.43 7.36 7.2 7.37

0400- 6.85 6.68 7.16 6.46 6.89 6.03 5.38 5.83 6.29 7.3 7.02 7.42



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Example of wind speed (m/s) at tower

Wind Power Production (m3/s3)


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Wind Power Production (m /s )

Wind Speed Anomaly (m/s)


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Wind Speed Anomaly (m/s)

Wind Power Production Anomaly (m3/s3)


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Wind Power Production Anomaly (m /s )


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Deliverables

1. Weather analysis database2. Surface current database3. Validation study

a. Use our horizontal data plus OSW

developers vertical data4. Summary statistics

RU-WRF High-Resolution Wind


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Resource Analysis

Lines A-L spaced 10 nm apart, South/North along NJcoastline

Points along lines spaced 5 nm apart, West/East alongNJ coastline

Array 12 x 4 throughout the coastal waters out to 20nm

Wind climatology to be conducted at 48 Virtual Met

Tower locations

Results made available via GIS platform

10nm

5 nm

Meteorological Tower vs


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Meteorological Tower providesdata at instrumented heights at

a single location

Virtual Meteorological Towerprovides data any desired

height at any location

Meteorological Tower vs.Model Virtual Meteorological

Tower The Virtual MetTower can allowfor additionalvariables to becalculated suchas temperature,air density,turbulence,potential turbineicing, and bladeswept area windshear.



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Wind speed data at anydesired height above the

water surface on hourly,daily, monthly, annual, andlong-term temporal scales.

Wind Speed Rose (blue) andEnergy Rose (red) Crucial for

determining turbine layout forenergy optimization and wakeimpact.


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k


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Tasks

1. Configure/set-up high res., nested RU-WRF

a. Optimize physics, microphysics schemes

b. Optimize boundary conditions (high res. SST, landuse, soil moisture)

2. Set-up, commence 13MHz CODAR network for

horizontal atmospheric model validation

3. Coordinate with BPU and developers for verticalatmospheric model validation

4. Run RU-WRF for a year with emphasis on seabreeze season which coincides with peakenergy demand

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Tasks

5. Vertical and horizontal validation of RU-WRFusing monitoring sites and CODAR network

6. Produce high-res, 3-D wind resource maps

7. Collaborate with NJDEP to help identify

optimum wind resource locations8. Provide operational weather forecasts in

support of wind power production potential andenergy market applications

P d Sit L ti


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Proposed Site Location North Wildwood

P d Sit L ti


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Proposed Site Location Strathmere

P d Sit L ti


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Proposed Site Location Brigantine


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RU-WRF to ROMS Coupling


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RU WRF to ROMS CouplingOur atmospheric model, RU-WRF, will be coupled to our ocean model, ROMS

(Regional Ocean Modeling System), to investigate the effects of coastalupwelling on sea breeze activity

ROMS SST and currents at200 m

RU-WRF Wind andSurface T

MARACOOS Regional Themes


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g

7 3 3 0 ' W

7 3 3 0 ' W

7 4 0 ' W

7 4 0 ' W

7 4 3 0 ' W

7 4 3 0 ' W

7 5 0 ' W

7 5 0 ' W

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7 6 0 ' W

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A r e a s u n d e r C o n s i d e r a t i o n fo r W i n d E n e r g y A r e a s

N e w J e r s e y

D e l a w a r e

M a r y l a n d

V i r g i n i a

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0

N a u t i c a l M i l e s

M a r y l a n d

N e w J e r s e y

D e l a w a r e

C H E S A P E A K E

B A Y

D E L A W A R E

B A Y

Vir

gi

ni a

V i r g i n i a

V i r g i n i aB e a c h

O c e a nC i t y

A t l a n t i cC i t y

D o v e r

W i l m i n g t o nP e n n s y l v a n i a

aritime Operations Safety at Sea

2) Ecosystem DecisionSupport - Fisheries

3) Water Quality Floatables, Hypoxia, Nutrient

4) Coastal Inundation - Flooding

5) Energy Offshore Wind

redications: New Jersey Observations and Models


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Observationsfocused onoptimizing forecastsoff the NJ Coast

Circulation Model

GNOME Oil Trajectories

NYHOPSStevens Institute of Technology

HF Radar Gliders

Water Monitoring& Standards

nomous Platforms: Dissolved OxygenNJDEP

EPA


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ygerra Optode

Oxygen Concentration

EPARutgers

MACOORA


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Conclusions

1. A high resolution, sea breeze-resolving atmosphericforecast model will be operated for 1 year to fullyencompass a winter storm and summer sea breezeseason

2. Improved boundary conditions from the 4km NAMand upwelling-resolving satellite SST will be used

3. A unique observing network will be deployed toprovide spatial validation data

4. An annual database will be developed andsummary statistics calculated

an advanced atmosphere/ocean assessment program: reducing the risks associated with offshore wind...

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