AMPS— Moving into the Next Phase

Background

AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans

Future Possibilities

www.mmm.ucar/rt/mm5/amps

AMPS Users’ Workshop 200410 June 2004

Jordan G. PowersMesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR

I. Background

Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) At-a-glance

NCAR & Polar Met. Group, BPRC, The Ohio State Univ.

Plus: SPAWAR contributions

Real-time, high-resolution mesoscale model over Antarctica (since 2000): “Polar MM5”

Support of Antarctic forecasting and science operations

Tailored to needs of

(1) SPAWAR forecasters and the USAP

(2) international community

Phase 2 Goals

October 2002–September 2004 (current phase)

New Data Assimilation Capability: 3DVAR

– 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation

Polar Physics Development

Ex: Upper boundary condition

Verification

– Seasonal forecast verification

– SOM (Self-Organizing Map) study

AMPS Users’ Workshops

Phase 2: Additional Gains

10-km Antarctic Peninsula grid

Expansion in international support

Scientific field activity support

GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)

NASA P3 Pine Island Bay operations(flights investigating calving glaciers)

Archive-derived climatologies for Raytheon support

Rescues: Flight Assistance

September 2003 (South Pole medevac) April 2004 (McMurdo medevac)

II. AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans

Next Phase: October 2004–September 2006

Implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)

Enhanced Grids

Ex: 30 km Antarctica grid 20 km grid

NB: Dependent on computing hardware

Data assimilation

– Explore new approaches: Ensemble Kalman Filter

– New data sources E.g: COSMIC GPS radio occultations (2006)

New Physics

– Blowing snow parameterization

– Cloud-radiation interaction: representation of downwelling longwave radiation

– Treatment of horizontal pressure-gradient force

Verification

– Evaluation of new physics

– Analysis of event performance

Climatological Database

– Web-based tool to allow compilation of climatology of locations, using archive

Assistance to International Antarctic Activities

Italy (PRNA) Terra Nova Bay

British Antarctic Survey Rothera

Germany Neumayer

Australia . Casey, Davis, Mawson (Bureau of Met.)

South African (S.A. Weather Service)

Russia Novolazarevskaya

Japan Syowa

Chile Eduardo Frei

Norway Troll

36h WRF Precip Forecast

Analyzed Precip

27 Sept. 2002Hurricane Isidore

• Designed for both research and operational applications

• Extensive use for real-time forecasting

• Registered users as of June 1, 2004: 845

• WRF Partner/Collaborators

– NCAR– NOAA National Centers for Environmental

Prediction– NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory

– Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)– Federal Aviation Administration– Naval Research Laboratory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

10 km WRF

WRF Frontal Forecast 24-hr WRF fcst: Valid 00 UTC 25 October 2001 (12-km grid)

WRF vertically-integrated cloud water IR imagery

WRF AMPS Test Forecast 72-hr WRF fcst: Valid 12 UTC 17 Nov 2003 (30-km grid)

SLP interval= 4 mb SLP interval= 4 mb

WRFMM5

III. Future Possibilities

Application of New Verification/Analysis Techniques

Field Campaign Support

Enhanced International Collaborations and SPAWAR Involvement

Eduardo Frei Stn.

Applications of Kinetic Energy Spectra from AMPS Real-Time Verification System

Power spectra of wind and computed from aircraft data

(Nastrom and Gage 1985)

k-3 and k-5/3 power curvesshown

GASP data(Global Atmospheric Sampling Program)

AMPS Kinetic Energy Spectra

Spectra computed from u, v, w through ~525–237 mb layer

Hr. 24 Fcst init: 1200 UTC 3 Sept 2003Grid x indicated

Spectra for 10-km and 3.3-km AMPS gridsHr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003

100

400 hPa height and wind speed on 10-km AMPS grid

Hr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003

Height (m)Interval=10 m

Wind speed (m/s)Interval= 2.5 m/s

10-km AMPS Spectra (Hr 24)

Area / subarea of domain indicated

– Spectral analysis may illuminate effects of high-resolution grids traditional error statistics might not reveal

– Application of high-res grids over Antarctica may improve representation of the variance of tropospheric flows

(i) Better reproduction of observed power laws on the mesoscale

(ii) Greater power variance on the mesoscale

Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites

New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route

RIME Supersite

Siple Dome / Onset Delta

Roosevelt Island

Franklin Island

Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites

New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route

RIME Supersite

Siple Dome / Onset Delta

Roosevelt Island

Franklin Island

Field Campaign Support

1) Antarctic RIME: Antarctic Regional Interactions Meteorology Experiment (A-RIME)

Planned measurement sites forRIME instrumentation deployments. A few existing AWSs shown as small green circles. (Many AWSs not shown.)

Field phases: Dec. ’06– Jan. ’07Dec. ’07– Feb. ’08Sept. ’08–Feb. ’09

– Pre- A-RIME Studies

Analysis of AMPS archive for instrument siting and information for logistical issues

Case studies to identify meteorology issues for exploration in A-RIME

– A-RIME Logistics

Special AMPS products and windows

Ex: Ferrell close-up coverage,time series & soundings for A-RIME points

Higher-resolution experimental grid(s)

Ex: 1-km one-way nests (e.g., Ross Air Stream)

Field Campaign Support (cont’d)

2) ANTCI: Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry Experiment

First field phase: Nov.–Dec. 2005

Twin Otter flights to sample PBL

– AMPS Support

Flight forecasting and specialized products

Model datasets for event analysis

ANTCI Flights: Yellow areas: focused on sulfur species; Green areas: focused on reactive nitrogen compounds; Blue areas: focused on both.

McMurdo

South Pole

AGO 2

AGO 4

Beardmore

Moody Nun

TAMSEIS Camp

Refueling sites (possible locations)

Deployment sites

Sulfur study areas

Reactive Nitrogen study areas

Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas

McMurdo

South Pole

AGO 2

AGO 4

Beardmore

Moody Nun

TAMSEIS Camp

Refueling sites (possible locations)

Deployment sites

Sulfur study areas

Reactive Nitrogen study areas

Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas

Future Possibilities (cont’d)

Enhanced International Cooperation and Support

– Contributions to/collaborations in AMPS operations

– Involvement of COMNAP in support of AMPS (?)

(Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs)

SPAWAR Involvement

– Participation in AMPS operations during field seasons

– Establishment of AMPS liaison

Ex: Product coordinator

Summary

AMPS next phase (2004–2006) planning in progress

Implementation of new model for AMPS: WRF

Improved system capabilities

– Polar physics development

– Data assimilation improvement

Strengthen Antarctic observational–forecasting–modeling operational & research collaborations, including international efforts